Gold Coast more likely premiers in 2011 than the Saints!
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- desertsaint
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Gold Coast more likely premiers in 2011 than the Saints!
"The Gold Coast club has been rated a $15 sixth favourite for the 2011 flag, behind Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs.
(SportsAlive odds - http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/rfnews ... 49017.html)
Gerard Daffy said. "That may come as a shock to a lot of people, but when you consider the concessions they've been given they've obviously had a pretty big leg-up."
Gold Coast has the capacity to pre-sign 12 17-year-olds this year and will have seven of the first 15 picks in next year's national draft.
It also has priority access to Queensland players and will be able to sign up to 16 uncontracted players from other clubs."
Fair enough...but where are Richmond?
(SportsAlive odds - http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/rfnews ... 49017.html)
Gerard Daffy said. "That may come as a shock to a lot of people, but when you consider the concessions they've been given they've obviously had a pretty big leg-up."
Gold Coast has the capacity to pre-sign 12 17-year-olds this year and will have seven of the first 15 picks in next year's national draft.
It also has priority access to Queensland players and will be able to sign up to 16 uncontracted players from other clubs."
Fair enough...but where are Richmond?
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That bet would be the best way to lose your money I have ever heard of.
Yesterday I heard how long it took WC,Lions,Port,Crows to win their flags and it was a smack in the face. This new club may be quicker than all of these even considering the concessions they get.
There's no money to the AFL in propping up traditional Melb clubs. They want them to fold in order to "grow" the competition.
Some melb clubs will fold in the next 5 years. I am certain.
Yesterday I heard how long it took WC,Lions,Port,Crows to win their flags and it was a smack in the face. This new club may be quicker than all of these even considering the concessions they get.
There's no money to the AFL in propping up traditional Melb clubs. They want them to fold in order to "grow" the competition.
Some melb clubs will fold in the next 5 years. I am certain.
- ace
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[quote="howlinwolf"]
There's no money to the AFL in propping up traditional Melb clubs. They want them to fold in order to "grow" the competition.
Some melb clubs will fold in the next 5 years. I am certain.[/quote]
The AFL is driven by television money.
The TV broadcasters want
1 A friday night game
2 A saturday afternoon game
3 A saturday night game
4 A sunday afternoon game
5 A sunday twilight game ( afternoon in W.A)
Ideally the AFL would like to have two Melbourne based clubs playing in each of the first 4 time slots but that would require 32 clubs with 16 in Melbourne.
Then a Perth club playing in time slot 5 against a Melbourne based club.
The most important TV market is still Melbourne.
Games 1 and 3 are the most imporatent for the TV networks.
In a 16 club competition, 8 Melbourne based clubs ensures 4 games in Victoria but only 2 all Melbourne games each week.
There would also be 2 all Interstate matches, 2 Melbourne v Interstate and 2 Interstate v Melbourne matches.
Ideally the all Melbourne club matches should be played at the MCG on Friday and Saturday nights
And the Melbourne v Interstate matches at the Dome in the afternoon.
The AFL needs to retain 8 Melbourne based clubs in a 16 club competition or at least 50% Melbourne based clubs in a larger competition.
A Tasmanian team is not a priority because Tasmania is rock solid in the AFL camp and keenly watches AFL on TV.
With Gold coast and West Sydney to join the competition the AFL can afford to "lose" 2 Melbourne based clubs to reduce the competition to an 8 Melbourne, 8 Interstate competitiion.
At the moment financially those 2 losers are North Melbourne and Melbourne but timing is everything.
St Kilda the most financiall crippled club of the 80's survived because at the right time South Melbourne then Fitzroy were in worse shape.
Sadly the pathetic recruitment from the end of 2004 onwards (Gilbert the only above average player since) will leave St Kilda in a diabolical position once the recruits of end 2000 to end 2003 have gone into retirement.
That may be just when the AFL executes the next 2 clubs.
Execution would mean St Kilda having no hope of winning premierships 10 years on.
This senario is not acceptable, the recruitment department must compensate by GREATLY OUTPERFORMING their peers starting now just as Geelong has done during this decade.
There's no money to the AFL in propping up traditional Melb clubs. They want them to fold in order to "grow" the competition.
Some melb clubs will fold in the next 5 years. I am certain.[/quote]
The AFL is driven by television money.
The TV broadcasters want
1 A friday night game
2 A saturday afternoon game
3 A saturday night game
4 A sunday afternoon game
5 A sunday twilight game ( afternoon in W.A)
Ideally the AFL would like to have two Melbourne based clubs playing in each of the first 4 time slots but that would require 32 clubs with 16 in Melbourne.
Then a Perth club playing in time slot 5 against a Melbourne based club.
The most important TV market is still Melbourne.
Games 1 and 3 are the most imporatent for the TV networks.
In a 16 club competition, 8 Melbourne based clubs ensures 4 games in Victoria but only 2 all Melbourne games each week.
There would also be 2 all Interstate matches, 2 Melbourne v Interstate and 2 Interstate v Melbourne matches.
Ideally the all Melbourne club matches should be played at the MCG on Friday and Saturday nights
And the Melbourne v Interstate matches at the Dome in the afternoon.
The AFL needs to retain 8 Melbourne based clubs in a 16 club competition or at least 50% Melbourne based clubs in a larger competition.
A Tasmanian team is not a priority because Tasmania is rock solid in the AFL camp and keenly watches AFL on TV.
With Gold coast and West Sydney to join the competition the AFL can afford to "lose" 2 Melbourne based clubs to reduce the competition to an 8 Melbourne, 8 Interstate competitiion.
At the moment financially those 2 losers are North Melbourne and Melbourne but timing is everything.
St Kilda the most financiall crippled club of the 80's survived because at the right time South Melbourne then Fitzroy were in worse shape.
Sadly the pathetic recruitment from the end of 2004 onwards (Gilbert the only above average player since) will leave St Kilda in a diabolical position once the recruits of end 2000 to end 2003 have gone into retirement.
That may be just when the AFL executes the next 2 clubs.
Execution would mean St Kilda having no hope of winning premierships 10 years on.
This senario is not acceptable, the recruitment department must compensate by GREATLY OUTPERFORMING their peers starting now just as Geelong has done during this decade.
Last edited by ace on Thu 02 Apr 2009 9:08pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- ace
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When I was a kid (in the early 60s) I promised that when I was grown up and rich I would buy my Dad a Jag for his birthday.
He died and all he ever got was a Dinky toy Jag.
I am still waiting to become rich.
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
You are not going to lose your job to AI.
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Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
Your company is going to go out of business because another company used AI.
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When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
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Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
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What on earth are you talking about?ace wrote:Sadly the pathetic recruitment from the end of 2004 onwards (Gilbert the only above average player since) will leave St Kilda in a diabolical position once the recruits of end 2000 to end 2003 have gone into retirement.
That may be just when the AFL executes the next 2 clubs.
Execution would mean St Kilda having no hope of winning premierships 10 years on.
This senario is not acceptable, the recruitment department must compensate by GREATLY OUTPERFORMING their peers starting now just as Geelong has done during this decade.
There are 7 other players on the list within a year of Sam Gilbert's age. Sure, not all of them are superstars, or are going to be, but that hardly constitutes a crisis.
Three of them are imports. And there's plenty of time to adjust for deficiencies.
If you ask me, the recruiting department have been outperforming their peers for about two years already. Gardiner, King, Schneider, Dempster, Ray and Dawson are all great pickups.
It's ridiculous how much fear-mongering is going on in the wake of this GC deal.
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I hope it's not the case, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win a Premiership before we do.
In my time I've seen the formation of Sydney, Brisbane, W/coast, Adelaide & Port And they have all gone on & won Premierships (some multiple) within a short time frame. -It took St Kilda almost 100 years to win one!
It's been frustrating to say the least. Here's hoping that these two new, IMO, insignificant teams, don't see success before us.
It also angers me when I hear the media refer to Freo fans as 'long suffering' or 'success-starved' Grrrrr...
Poor Darlings, they have been in existance now for almost 15 years & still don't have multiple Premierships to show for it.
In my time I've seen the formation of Sydney, Brisbane, W/coast, Adelaide & Port And they have all gone on & won Premierships (some multiple) within a short time frame. -It took St Kilda almost 100 years to win one!
It's been frustrating to say the least. Here's hoping that these two new, IMO, insignificant teams, don't see success before us.
It also angers me when I hear the media refer to Freo fans as 'long suffering' or 'success-starved' Grrrrr...
Poor Darlings, they have been in existance now for almost 15 years & still don't have multiple Premierships to show for it.
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- ace
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Lets look at the concessions GC17 gets.
First at the end of this year they get to choose 12 of the best kids aged 17.67 to 17.99 in the country.
That is equivalent to being given picks 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29, 32, 35 in the 2010 draft.
But then in the 2010 draft they get picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 26, 43, 60.
Combining the 2009 underage picks & 2010 drafts they will have given the equivalent of
picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, 26, 29, 32, 35, 38, 55, 72 out of the year of 2010.
But then add to that 3 priority zone picks from Northern Territory and 5 priority zone picks from Queensland.
And then add to that one out of contract player from each of the 16 clubs.
5 Queensaland zone picks for the next 2 years will only add milk to a bottle full of cream.
If they are patient Gold Coast could have an unbeatable team from 2015 through to the early 2020s.
If they are greedy for instant success they could do a Fremantle.
Trade a number of those draft picks for experienced players from existing clubs.
But they would have to be blind not to see how stupid Fremantle was, the only new club not to get a premiership out of their concessions.
They will have to wear 2 wooden spoons by playing say 12 (due to injuries) out of the 16 experienced (formerly uncontracted) players.
That means 10 kids not ready for AFL football, rotated into the team on a 1 in 3 match basis.
Picks 1 and 18, 19, 36 in 2011 and 1, 2, 19, 36 in 2012 will result from the slaughter.
Imagine a team of 22 young players at age 22 all who were equivalent to the top 22 draft picks.
If they have a patient administration, back to back to back to back ........ premierships are Gold Coast's for the taking once the kids become AFL ready.
Pity the kids of the year of 2010.
If they are among the best they have over 70% chance of being conscripted by Gold Coast.
Don't be surprised if some kid refuses to enter the draft until a year later to improve his chances of staying in his home state.
First at the end of this year they get to choose 12 of the best kids aged 17.67 to 17.99 in the country.
That is equivalent to being given picks 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, 26, 29, 32, 35 in the 2010 draft.
But then in the 2010 draft they get picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 26, 43, 60.
Combining the 2009 underage picks & 2010 drafts they will have given the equivalent of
picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, 26, 29, 32, 35, 38, 55, 72 out of the year of 2010.
But then add to that 3 priority zone picks from Northern Territory and 5 priority zone picks from Queensland.
And then add to that one out of contract player from each of the 16 clubs.
5 Queensaland zone picks for the next 2 years will only add milk to a bottle full of cream.
If they are patient Gold Coast could have an unbeatable team from 2015 through to the early 2020s.
If they are greedy for instant success they could do a Fremantle.
Trade a number of those draft picks for experienced players from existing clubs.
But they would have to be blind not to see how stupid Fremantle was, the only new club not to get a premiership out of their concessions.
They will have to wear 2 wooden spoons by playing say 12 (due to injuries) out of the 16 experienced (formerly uncontracted) players.
That means 10 kids not ready for AFL football, rotated into the team on a 1 in 3 match basis.
Picks 1 and 18, 19, 36 in 2011 and 1, 2, 19, 36 in 2012 will result from the slaughter.
Imagine a team of 22 young players at age 22 all who were equivalent to the top 22 draft picks.
If they have a patient administration, back to back to back to back ........ premierships are Gold Coast's for the taking once the kids become AFL ready.
Pity the kids of the year of 2010.
If they are among the best they have over 70% chance of being conscripted by Gold Coast.
Don't be surprised if some kid refuses to enter the draft until a year later to improve his chances of staying in his home state.
The more you know, the more you know you don't know.
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
You are not going to lose your job to AI.
You are going lose your job to somebody who uses AI.
Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
Your company is going to go out of business because another company used AI.
- Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA
When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
Now that I am old and know so much more, I know that I know so much about so little, and so little about so much.
If you are not engaging AI actively and aggressively, you are doing it wrong.
You are not going to lose your job to AI.
You are going lose your job to somebody who uses AI.
Your company is not going to go out of business because of AI.
Your company is going to go out of business because another company used AI.
- Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA