The Saints Barometer

[markp]

However ..... goes this season, so go the Saints.

Might be a particular stat, player.... anything.

For mine it's Kosi and Dal, if they have a blinder this year we could do anything, if they struggle.... we'll find it hard.

I'm excited by what I've seen so far.

[Loyal]

the board, the players, the coaching staff and the supporters have been nothing short of professional.
i genuinely believe that we are fair dinkum this season.

[Foz]

Saints barometer will rise if we get the following;

a) Existing players to improve - Dal and Kosi good examples
b) New players to improve - looking to Armitage and Gilbert here. Both were averaging 12 possessions in 08, expect that number to be 16-18 at season end.
c) Improvement in field kicking - good win Rd 1 but we were down in kicking efficiency (as compared to 15 other teams) Hard to break zones and get strong carry if this stat falls away. A strong reason why we stalled against Hawks n Cats in finals.
d) Forward pressure - IMO our defence is strong, but not so forward pressure. Again stats down on weekend. A few kicks to the goalline saw plenty fly, Swans run it out when a small blocking the goal line was a massive play. I'm looking for an Armo, Jack Steven to provide something in this regard.
e) consistency of effort across 4 quarters. Momentum for Saints is always a big part, will be helped by natural improvement of players but this is always a concern especially when we go interstate.

[St Chris]

There's a fine line between barometer and front-runnner, and Dal is certainly one that falls into this category. Milne is another.

At what point does a team lift because of said players, or is it that the team is lifting, which makes it easier fo these guys to play better footy???

[Ice Wolf]

There's a fine line between barometer and front-runnner, and Dal is certainly one that falls into this category. Milne is another.

At what point does a team lift because of said players, or is it that the team is lifting, which makes it easier fo these guys to play better footy???

Kosi lifts the team.
Roo doesn't lift the team but his own performance adds enough to get the win.
Dal doesn't lift the team, but is able to play better when the rest of the team lifts.
Milne as Dal.

You want Kosi to play better because he seems to lift the entire team, thereby making Dal and Milne better.

[markp]

There's a fine line between barometer and front-runnner, and Dal is certainly one that falls into this category. Milne is another.

At what point does a team lift because of said players, or is it that the team is lifting, which makes it easier fo these guys to play better footy???

Kosi lifts the team.
Roo doesn't lift the team but his own performance adds enough to get the win.
Dal doesn't lift the team, but is able to play better when the rest of the team lifts.
Milne as Dal.

You want Kosi to play better because he seems to lift the entire team, thereby making Dal and Milne better.

That's a really interesting point, I thought it was vital that Kosi kick the goal after 'that mark' on saturday, I said to my cousin "if he kicks this he's back", it seemed to lift everyone... I'm hoping we're gonna see a Dal with a new resolve who leads from the front this season.... and 4 or 5 goals between them each week would be lovely.

[Teflon]

There's a fine line between barometer and front-runnner, and Dal is certainly one that falls into this category. Milne is another.

At what point does a team lift because of said players, or is it that the team is lifting, which makes it easier fo these guys to play better footy???

Kosi lifts the team.
Roo doesn't lift the team but his own performance adds enough to get the win.
Dal doesn't lift the team, but is able to play better when the rest of the team lifts.
Milne as Dal.

You want Kosi to play better because he seems to lift the entire team, thereby making Dal and Milne better.

That's a really interesting point, I thought it was vital that Kosi kick the goal after 'that mark' on saturday, I said to my cousin "if he kicks this he's back", it seemed to lift everyone... I'm hoping we're gonna see a Dal with a new resolve who leads from the front this season.... and 4 or 5 goals between them each week would be lovely.

Mark/Icewolf spot on.

While I loved Kosi's grab....I was more interested in him kicking the goal.....it finishes the transaction and is such a huge boost to his confidence.

Hes a match winner and barometer Ive no doubt.....Im not sure he knows that and maybe 09 is the year he steps wide of the Riewoldt shadow and becomes as important as the potential...

id love to see Kosi stop being nice and develop a J Brown swagger he CAN be that good if he believes and backs himself as the elite do.

[SainterK]

That's an interesting perspective, you don't believe Kosi is aware of his ability to lift the team then?

[PJ]

you don't believe Kosi is aware of his ability to lift the team then?

I don't believe Kosi has any idea of the impact he has - he's too busy worrying about doing the right thing. Straight shooter is our Justin, doesn't ever over rate himself. He just wants to do the right thing by the team. You get the feeling Kosi is very hard on himself and perhaps at times is his own worst enemy. Loved Saturdays game though reminds me of past games where he did really dominate.

[Teflon]

That's an interesting perspective, you don't believe Kosi is aware of his ability to lift the team then?

I suspect hes heard this but hearing and believing are vastly different.

Fiora's recent article was a insight into this. Here was a top 5 draft pick whose talent had been lauded by 2 AFL clubs who in his final meeting with an AFL coach (Lyon) has that coach say to him that he and the coaches believe in the player.....perhaps more than the player does himself.

Some 'appear' borne with it. Judd looks as if he came out of the birth canal with a smirk on his face that says "Im good, I can back it up....and I'll land a hot chick and heaps of cash. ...oh and Im smart...."

Ofcourse its not birth related but there is a healthy belief in himself. All champions have it...some more subtle than others (Harvey)........Id love Kosi to just get a run/season of confidence boosting games and I reckon he can develop this and dominate he will.

Its mental with this bloke...a run of good performances would validate the encouragement....and confidence can do wonders from there - once you "learn" you are that damaging a player..you are that good.......you also know that ability is in you and doesnt just leave.

[SainterK]

I never have bought the bitter and jaded "living in Roo's shadow" argument, it really annoys me.

He seems to look for direction, and seems unware that he is the director.

[Teflon]

I never have bought the bitter and jaded "living in Roo's shadow" argument, it really annoys me.

He seems to look for direction, and seems unware that he is the director.

Ive spoken to him only a couple of times and even in that brief encounter you cant tell he simply isnt the "bitter" type.

As already has been said - Kosi really strikes me as the bloke who genuinely isnt into the spotlight, would rather have a quiet beer at the bar and get back to the bush when he can. Hes a country kid for sure.

[Con Gorozidis]

Dal is very important. But we all our know who our good players are and what they are capable of doing and have done in the last 5 years.

But we need someone outside the usual suspects to start being a geniune player. At this stage only Gilbert and Ray look genuine of the newer guys.

[spert]

The best barometer is a team performance which results in a win, not individuals, and that's how teams win a flag..everyone contributes, not just a few flashy moments form one or two players -this has been our problem for ages. If we get a win in Adelaide, with all players contributing, then that's my barometer.

[desertsaint]

The best barometer is a team performance which results in a win, not individuals, and that's how teams win a flag..everyone contributes, not just a few flashy moments form one or two players -this has been our problem for ages. If we get a win in Adelaide, with all players contributing, then that's my barometer.

spot on - almost 100% in agreement - if we beat Geelong and/or the Hawks - that's my barometer for improvement.

[saintnat]

when kosi is up the saints look much the betterr

[Foz]

The input to the equation is the Kosi's, the Dal's, the Gilbo's taking the next step.

The hoped for outcome is consistency of effort across 4 quarters, 22 games and finals.

The side issues of kicking efficiency and forward pressure are in the background.

Kosi dominated in 05 when Roo was out injured. He didnt go on with it. While we would love to believe it on the back of 1 game, its important to judge it against the 05 backdrop. Thats why I'd love to see the TEAM benchmark well - and take any individual success as a welcome bonus.

[Longwayfromhome]

The barometer has to be the improvement in our bottom 10 players. Geelong loose one or two of their top couple of players and they cover the gap. If the same happens to St Kilda we look to the heavens and pray for a miracle.
Ablett out for two or three. No probs.
Roo out for a couple and we can write those games off. Pretty simple really.
No depth. No improvement

[PJ]

Roo out for a couple and we can write those games off.

Yeh...like last week where Roo absolutely took the game by the scruff....where were all his team mates? Makes ya mad doesn't it.

[Eastern]

Barometer as in skill, courage & inspiration

Look no further than our Captain & Vice Captain !!

[Loyal]

barometer is belief.

[markp]

I'm sure it sounds blindingly obvious but I think another major one will be how we sit at the mid-season break, win/loss and injury wise.... if we could just hit it with some foundation for a tilt at a top 2 finish, instead of staring down the barrel as we have been....

I really think we're gonna give it a genuine shake this year, so far we've gone under everyones radar, even many fans, but I sense a quiet confidence and resolve.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Barometer as in skill, courage & inspiration

Look no further than our Captain & Vice Captain !!

Skill, courage, inspiration, belief, determination, these are all decent indicators, but I think these are determining factors rather than barometers.

The barometer that I'm thinking may indicate a Saints team which will be better than pundits are giving them is the performance of past All Australians.

I'm talking Dal Santo and Ball. Add Hayes to the mix.

In '08, if the Saints won or broke even in the clearances, we won - and that's the kind of barometer I expect to continue. There can be no better barometer for the Saints than the midfield's performance.

There have been many factors in our midfield coming back to the pack, and it's been over a long enough time that it gets overlooked that the main drivers of that dominance are still here - Dal, Ball, Hayes. Add Goddard, and I'd say we'll be able over the course of '09 to really put a barometer type rule against them (e.g. 3 of 4 get 25-30 touches we're home)

Our backline is very good. When Hudghton gets back, we'll have some of the best stopping power, as well as rebound power, and flexibility as well. If we could actually get everyone fit at once (Dempster, Raph) it would be frankly scary.

A secondary barometer for mine would be Kosi - the other big change from '04-'05 is the potency up front, and the biggest change is we've just got nobody of Coleman Medal credibility... but even here, I think better performance of our mids will make Kosi look much better. I'm not sure he's a good barometer though because as a forward it's hard to say Kosi kicks 3,4,5 and the Saints are definately home...

[bergholt]

There's a fine line between barometer and front-runnner, and Dal is certainly one that falls into this category. Milne is another.

um, technically a barometer measures atmospheric pressure and doesn't cause it. so these players you mention would be exactly the definition of a barometer. when the team's playing well, they play well; when the team's playing badly, vice versa.

anyway, here's the 10 longest serving players broken down by stats in a win versus in a loss:

Disposals:
Milne +33.9%
Dal Santo +26.8%
Riewoldt +17.8%
Montagna +14.9%
Koschitzke +13.1%
Blake +10.5%
Ball +6.4%
Fisher +4.7%
Gram +2.6%
Goddard +0.1%

Marks:
Dal Santo +57.1%
Milne +32.6%
Koschitzke + 26.6%
Montagna +23.6%
Riewoldt +23.1%
Gram +20.2%
Blake +15.3%
Ball +12.2%
Fisher +5.3%
Goddard -2.1%

Goals:
Koschitzke +112.7%
Gram +108.4%
Milne +69.7%
Dal Santo +41.0%
Riewoldt +38.5%
Montagna +37.9%
Goddard +30.5%
Ball +19.9%
Blake -4.4%
Fisher -47.6%

Tackles:
Koschitzke +46.0%
Goddard +31.4%
Milne +24.1%
Blake +22.6%
Dal Santo +15.0%
Riewoldt +8.6%
Gram +0.1%
Montagna -0.7%
Ball -8.2%
Fisher -13.9%

decide for yourself whether these stats mean that, for instance, if dal santo takes a lot of marks then we win, or if dal santo takes a lot of marks because we're winning.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

There's a fine line between barometer and front-runnner, and Dal is certainly one that falls into this category. Milne is another.

um, technically a barometer measures atmospheric pressure and doesn't cause it. so these players you mention would be exactly the definition of a barometer. when the team's playing well, they play well; when the team's playing badly, vice versa.

anyway, here's the 10 longest serving players broken down by stats in a win versus in a loss:

<Actual stats snipped>

decide for yourself whether these stats mean that, for instance, if dal santo takes a lot of marks then we win, or if dal santo takes a lot of marks because we're winning.

Wow, great post! Thanks!