Let the rebuilding begin...

[Castro]

To be honest, I thought I would be feeling a little less disappointed than I am this morning, but I guess that's just part and parcel of supporting and genuinely loving a team who comes agonisingly close to the ultimate success. Following on from this horrendous loss, I have been giving thought to where we are at in terms of the "premiership clock" that is famously referred to by most coaches and football scribes.

Below are some of my thoughts on where we are at in terms of our list, our club and our window of opportunity. Like everyone on this fan forum, I would very much like to think that this window hasn't closed for the St.Kilda Football Club, however I believe that some strategic forward-thinking and planning must be executed immediately if we are to be a genuine premiership threat over the next four or five years.

The Playing List - Our Core Group (13 Players)

Nick Riewoldt - Age 25 (DOB: 17th Oct, 1982)

Our champion player. Without doubt, one of the elite players in the AFL. In my opinion, the team must be built and structured around Nick. At 25 years of age (soon to be 26), we can assume that, barring injury, we will have at least another five quality years from him.

Lenny Hayes - Age 28 (DOB: 14th Jan, 1980)

In my eyes, the most underrated player in the competition. This year has been a trying for Lenny due to constant niggling injuries, however, at his best, he is in the elite midfielder bracket alongside Judd. Due to his toughness and aggression at the football, it is difficult to see him playing at his level for more than another three years.

Luke Ball - Age 24 (DOB: 25th May, 1984)

Super player who has been hampered by injury throughout his career. At his best, an exceptional midfielder who wins the contested football and tackles like few others are able to in the game. With an injury-free pre-season, hopefully he can begin to play the brand of football that we all know he is capable of playing.

Max Hudghton- Age 32 (DOB: 9th Feb, 1976)

Based on performances this season, most unlucky not to be named in the All-Australian squad. Another grossly underrated player who is key to our spine and general defensive structure. Next year he will be 33 years of age - how much longer will his body be able to hold up and how much longer will his desire to play remain? Max will be a massive loss to our club. In the best case scenario, it is difficult to see him playing beyond the next two seasons.

Sam Fisher- Age 25 (DOB: 7th Oct, 1982)

Super, super defender and player. Rewarded for his outstanding season with All-Australian selection. Alongside Max, Sam forms the backbone of our defense and is key to our structure. Soon to be 26, there is no reason why Sam couldn't be playing at the elite level for another five years.

Nick Dal Santo- Age 24 (DOB: 22nd Feb, 1984)

Much is spoken about Nick on this fan forum, however there is no questioning his football ability. My criticisms stem from his inability to provide consistency in his game. Is he a shadow of himself when a hard tag is played on him? Perhaps. I believe that some savvy coaching could overcome this problem, such as placing him straight into the forward line when such tags are applied. The likes of Bateman and Ling would have issues curbing Nick at full forward. On another note, Nick would be a better player if we had greater midfield depth - this needs to be addressed in the coming draft and off-season. At age 24, he has many years of football remaining in him.

Brendon Goddard- Age 23 (DOB: 20th May, 1985)

I believe that as good a season as Brendon has had, we are still to see the best of him. Crucial to our backline, I feel that one of his biggest strengths is his versatility. From 2009 and beyond, he must be utilised far more in the midfield and potentially in the forward line. He is only 23, therefore, barring injury, has a minimum of six or seven quality years remaining in him.

Jason Gram- Age 24 (DOB: 27th Apr, 1984)

I would like to know what everyone's thoughts are on Jason. In my eyes, he has had a lacklustre season. The one frustration I harbour with Jason is his disposal, however this has been the case for many years now. There is now doubt that in full flight he is capable of breaking games through his run and carry, however he must work on his disposal and mental application if he is to break into the upper echelon of players in the AFL. At 24, has a minimum of five or six good years remaining.

Leigh Montagna- Age 25 (DOB: 11th Feb, 1983)

Leigh is another who for mine has had a mediocre year by his standards. At 25, he has at least five good years of football remaining. Personally, I would like to see him played as a permanent wingman rather than towards the defensive line, as he is one midfielder who can be damaging on the scoreboard with his solid goal kicking.

Stephen Milne- Age 28 (DOB: 8th Mar, 1980)

I sometimes fail to understand how people can be critical of Stephen when he consistently averages around three goals per game for us. Another stellar season as a small forward. At 28 years of age, there is no reason why he can't maintain this level for another three years.

Matt Maguire- Age 24 (DOB: 30th May, 1984)

We're all hoping and praying that Matt can overcome his horror run of injuries and become a member of the senior line-up on a consistent basis. There is no doubting his ability, however I am concerned that his serious injuries will curtail his longevity in the game. Will he come back and play at the level he has shown us in the past? Only time will tell. At 24, he is still young enough to provide five or six years worth of valuable service.

Justin Koschitzke- Age 26 (DOB: 20th Sep, 1982)

I just don't know anymore. So much promise - so little delivered. In my opinion, it's very, very difficult to recruit quality key position players, therefore I just don't know whether trading him is a viable option. Having said this, he just hasn't lived up to what we all thought he could be and should be. Has he been playing injured this year? If we were to look at trading him, would we realistically obtain what we want in return?

Steven Baker- Age 28 (DOB: 22nd May, 1980)

We all know how valuable he is to our team. One aspect to Steven's game that we have desperately missed all year is his toughness and physical presence. Based on the assumption that he will recover from injuries sustained this year, I feel that he has two or three quality years remaining in him.


The Playing List - Fringe Players (9 Players)

Xavier Clarke- Age 24 (DOB: 28th Sep, 1983)

Potential galore - the problem is that he is injury prone. If he is able to stay fit and healthy, I believe that Xavier is a valuable member of our starting 22. The upside is that he is still young and will be turning 25 soon, therefore we can expect, injuries aside, at least five or six good years of football from him.

Raphael Clarke- Age 22 (DOB: 24th Sep, 1985)

I'll be the first to admit that I had my doubts about Raphael, however the last two games have indicated to me that he may well turn out to be a valuable member of our starting 22. Having said this, I'm not going to profess my undying love for him after just two outstanding performances. I hope that this late season form will continue next year and in the years to come. As he is about to turn just 23, there is plenty of upside to Raphael, with potentially six or seven years of good football remaining.

Jason Blake- Age 27 (DOB: 15th Mar, 1981)

As much as people like to criticise Jason, he is a serviceable player. He is given a role and, more often than not, gives all of himself. Is he good enough to be part of a premiership winning team? Look, in all honesty, probably not. Then again, I don't really rate Josh Hunt from Geelong, yet he is a premiership winning player who plays his role for the team.

Adam Schneider- Age 23 (DOB: 5th Dec, 1984)

A very disappointing year in my opinion. I had such high hopes for Adam at the start of the season, however he simply hasn't delivered. He appears to be unfit and overweight, therefore he must work on these things in the off-season. Other than that, we know what sort of damaging player he can be and he is only 23, which bodes well for the club.

Sean Dempster- Age 24 (DOB: 20th Jan, 1984)

I didn't think too much of Sean's first half of the season, however I believe he improved dramatically in the second half. He has been dealt a cruel blow with a serious knee injury, therefore we don't know whether he will be participating in 2009. All in all, I believe he has been okay in his first season at a new club. Another who is still only 24, therefore age is on his side.

Steven King- Age 29 (DOB: 22nd Nov, 1978)

There is no doubt in my mind that Steven King has been the best of our experienced recruits for last year's off season. A great year for someone who is soon to be 30. Given his fitness and wealth of experience, I would very much like to think that he could remain with the club for at least two more years so that he can impart his knowledge to Ben McEvoy as the rucking future for our club.

Clinton Jones- Age 24 (DOB: 2nd Feb, 1984)

I believe CJ has showed enough potential this year to be given a chance next year. Both his hardness and application are terrific, and he is still young at 24 years of age. The second half of the season has been particularly pleasing, therefore I would like to think that this can continue into 2009 and beyond.

Sam Gilbert- Age 22 (DOB: 19th Aug, 1986)

Sam is the one player on whom I deliberated the most. I don't want to look at the game last night in isolation, as that wouldn't be fair to Sam. He has shown glimpses of quality throughout the season, however he must find consistency in his play if he is to make it at the senior level. Having said this, he is only 22 years of age, therefore he should be given an opportunity to develop and continue to shape his game.

Shane Birss- Age 25 (DOB: 11th Mar, 1983)

Can anyone please tell me why Shane has not been playing over the past two months or so? I actually believe that he is a decent player - his Casey form highlights this. Whilst excellent VFL form doesn't necessarily translate into excellent form in the AFL, I believe that he should at least be given the opportunity ahead of other who have been selected ahead of him. Remarkably, he is only 25 years of age, therefore he still has at least four or five years of football remaining.


The Playing List - Youngsters (8 Players)

David Armitage- Age 20 (DOB: 16th Jun, 1988)

Total senior games: 16

David will be a very good player for St.Kilda - about this I have no doubt. The issue is that he needs to be played in the senior team week in, week out so that he is given an opportunity to develop alongside our other quality midfielders.

Ben McEvoy- Age 19 (DOB: 11th Jul, 1989)

Total senior games: 1

Hopefully Ben can become a permanent fixture within the senior team in 2009. He needs game time to develop and to gain an understanding of the level at which senior AFL football is played.

Jarryd Allen- Age 20 (DOB: 14th Jan, 1988)

Total senior games: 4

Not enough senior exposure to make an informed decision.

Eljay Connors- Age 18 (DOB: 1st Jan, 1990)

Total senior games: Yet to debut

Robert Eddy- Age 20 (DOB: 1st Jul, 1988)

Total senior games: 13

To be perfectly honest, I have my doubts as to whether or not Robert will make it at the senior level. Having said this, it is a little too early to tell - he needs to be given more time to develop.

Jarryn Geary- Age 20 (DOB: 23rd Jun, 1988)

Total senior games: 10

I actually thought that Jarryn's efforts in his first ten senior games were above average. As with others, he needs to be given more game time to develop and adapt to the pace and level of senior AFL football.

Brad Howard- Age 20 (DOB: 21st Dec, 1987)

Total senior games: 2

Not enough senior exposure to make an informed decision.

Jack Steven- Age 18 (DOB: 28th Mar, 1990)

Total senior games: Yet to debut


The Playing List - On The Outer (7 Players)

I won't be making a comment for each individual player listed below, rather an "umbrella" comment that can be applied to all of them. I honestly believe that if we are to be serious contenders for a premiership over the next five years or thereabouts, none of the players listed below are capable of playing in a winning premiership team.

Charlie Gardiner- Age 25 (DOB: 1st Mar, 1983)

Michael Rix- Age 27 (DOB: 1st Aug, 1981)

Andrew McQualter- Age 22 (DOB: 9th Jun, 1986)

James Gwilt- Age 21 (DOB: 8th Nov, 1986)

Leigh Fisher- Age 24 (DOB: 19th Apr, 1984)

Aaron Fiora- Age 27 (DOB: 19th Apr, 1981)

Matthew Ferguson- Age 24 (DOB: 10th Jan, 1984)


The Playing List - Retirees (3 Players)

Robert Harvey

Fraser Gehrig

Michael Gardiner


Summary - My Thoughts

I don't believe that we need to make too many wholesale changes in the off-season. Of the core group, both Lenny and Max will be retiring before anyone else. Given this, we need to focus our attention on drafting a quality key defender, with the remaining draft picks to go exclusively on midfielders. What we have lacked for quite some time now is midfield depth and damaging pace.

Our forward line, when fit and firing, is one of the most damaging in the league, with no impending retirements.

Other than Max, our backline will remain together for at least four or five years and looks to have a solid make-up.

Our midfield, other than Lenny, will be together for at least four or five years. What we desperately need is an injection of midfield depth and pace. Looking at the upcoming draft, there is enormous depth in the midfield stocks, therefore we should be able to recruit wisely in this area.

What I would like to see is our younger players having more game time, particularly Armitage and McEvoy. The only way in which we will develop our players and learn about them is by playing them, rather than topping up our team on a week-to-week basis with players who will not be part of our next premiership winning team. Armitage, McEvoy and company will be different players with 60-80 games under their belt - they simply need to be played.

Another thing I would like to see is a greater focus on our skills, as our disposal at times has been nothing short of abysmal. If we look at the other teams in the top four this year, the difference in the quality of disposal and general skill level is massive. If we want to be the best, we need to be able to compete with the best.

Apologies for writing this dissertation, however I wanted to make my thoughts and feelings clear in the one post. Here's to a great season for our boys in 2009 and beyond when the Saints go marching in just that little bit further!

[plugger66]

Good post but our forward line when firing is not the best in the AFL. We only have one tall forward and no medium making types so it is a fair way off. Our backline is one of the best in the AFL and our midfield is around the middle mark. We need another forward or 2 and 2 midfielders and maybe a backman. Not easy to get though.

[Animal Enclosure]

A fantastic summary mate... very well thought out & I agree with 99% of it.

[Castro]

Thanks, Animal. I'm curious to know what the 1% is you disagree with!

[borderbarry]

Godd post. I agree entirely.
We need to be prepared to trade off some of our players to get draft picks, but I cant see any club wanting any of the 7 on the Outer.
Also 3 retiring and delisting 7, means 10 to be drafted. Although if we promote Eddy, and maybe Attard, that leaves 8 I would like to leave one or two positions on the list open, with a view to promoting the best of the rookies early next season. Hopefully we should have about 8 to chose from, one Irish, 2 from NSW Scholarship players plus the normal quota.

[plugger66]

Godd post. I agree entirely.
We need to be prepared to trade off some of our players to get draft picks, but I cant see any club wanting any of the 7 on the Outer.
Also 3 retiring and delisting 7, means 10 to be drafted. Although if we promote Eddy, and maybe Attard, that leaves 8 I would like to leave one or two positions on the list open, with a view to promoting the best of the rookies early next season. Hopefully we should have about 8 to chose from, one Irish, 2 from NSW Scholarship players plus the normal quota.

We are not going to have 10 picks even if we upgrade 2 players. If 3 retire 4 at the most will be delisted.

[bigcarl]

We only have one tall forward and no medium making types so it is a fair way off.

good work castro. a fair analysis of our list and i'm surprised that someone who has gone to the trouble of writing that doesn't post more often.

i agree with plugger on the above point, though.

i'd be looking at bj at ff for next season (regardless of what it may or may not do to our onball division) and i believe raph clarke is a ready made replacement as a midfielder.

i'd also be looking at playing dal santo as a regular half forward alongside riewoldt.

we need to get some class closer to the goals apart from roo and milne.

kosi should be played as second ruck drifting forward.

the gameplan needs work. to me it is still too focused on stopping the opposition and not enough on making the play ourselves.

there's no sense in trying to restrict teams such as geelong and hawthorn to a losing score. to beat them you have to outscore them.

the other thing we must do is keep bringing the kids through. we need to get more games into mcevoy, armitage, geary etc.

[Castro]

Bigcarl, I appreciate your words. Whilst I don't post too often, I'm on here pretty much daily reading threads and seeing what fellow Saints supporters think.

Look, I agree with both you and plugger66. The big "if" regarding our forward line is Kosi. I guess I'm trying to look at things with the "glass half full" view, but it's beginning to test my patience. Potential is a dangerous word that is bandied about all too often. I wish Kosi would deliver consistently, however he just doesn't.

BJ at full forward is a sensational idea. I've seen a few people here talking about this and I think it would work.

Dal on a forward flank would be good too. Firstly, it would release him from a midfield tag. Secondly, it would allow him to use his football smarts, creativity and exceptional disposal in the area that would hurt the opposition most.

Couldn't agree more about the kids - they must be played. I have been sick to death of seeing the kids brought in and out of the team during the year.

As for the gameplan, I didn't want to speak about it in my original post. The reason for this is that I didn't want to make the post appear too harsh against Ross Lyon or the gameplan. Honestly, it has to change. We've all seen it in recent weeks. When we play attacking football, we win. When we play defensive football and go into our shell, we lose quite badly.

Anyway, looking forward to posting a little more on the forum. Thanks for the encouragement.

[bigcarl]

The big "if" regarding our forward line is Kosi. I guess I'm trying to look at things with the "glass half full" view, but it's beginning to test my patience.

i was pushing for him in the forward line for a while, but i think i've now seen enough to suggest that his best role is ruck/forward and ross has admitted as much.

[timtam]

Just like to add a few points to this post:

The Playing List - Our Core Group (13 Players)

Nick Riewoldt - Age 25 (DOB: 17th Oct, 1982)

Our champion player. Without doubt, one of the elite players in the AFL. In my opinion, the team must be built and structured around Nick. At 25 years of age (soon to be 26), we can assume that, barring injury, we will have at least another five quality years from him.

Agreed. Brilliant year but I wouldn't be completely structuring a team around 1 player.

Lenny Hayes - Age 28 (DOB: 14th Jan, 1980)

In my eyes, the most underrated player in the competition. This year has been a trying for Lenny due to constant niggling injuries, however, at his best, he is in the elite midfielder bracket alongside Judd. Due to his toughness and aggression at the football, it is difficult to see him playing at his level for more than another three years.

Agreed. Highly underrated by I can see him going for another 4-5 years.

Luke Ball - Age 24 (DOB: 25th May, 1984)

Super player who has been hampered by injury throughout his career. At his best, an exceptional midfielder who wins the contested football and tackles like few others are able to in the game. With an injury-free pre-season, hopefully he can begin to play the brand of football that we all know he is capable of playing.

Agreed

Max Hudghton- Age 32 (DOB: 9th Feb, 1976)

Based on performances this season, most unlucky not to be named in the All-Australian squad. Another grossly underrated player who is key to our spine and general defensive structure. Next year he will be 33 years of age - how much longer will his body be able to hold up and how much longer will his desire to play remain? Max will be a massive loss to our club. In the best case scenario, it is difficult to see him playing beyond the next two seasons.

Superb in defense throughout his career and who has, I believe, at least another 2 years ahead of him (if he decides to stay on, it looks likely, but he hasn't made his final decision yet.

Sam Fisher- Age 25 (DOB: 7th Oct, 1982)

Super, super defender and player. Rewarded for his outstanding season with All-Australian selection. Alongside Max, Sam forms the backbone of our defense and is key to our structure. Soon to be 26, there is no reason why Sam couldn't be playing at the elite level for another five years.

Totally agree. Highly underrated even though he did make AA team this year.

Nick Dal Santo- Age 24 (DOB: 22nd Feb, 1984)

Much is spoken about Nick on this fan forum, however there is no questioning his football ability. My criticisms stem from his inability to provide consistency in his game. Is he a shadow of himself when a hard tag is played on him? Perhaps. I believe that some savvy coaching could overcome this problem, such as placing him straight into the forward line when such tags are applied. The likes of Bateman and Ling would have issues curbing Nick at full forward. On another note, Nick would be a better player if we had greater midfield depth - this needs to be addressed in the coming draft and off-season. At age 24, he has many years of football remaining in him.

An elite midfielder when he puts his mind to it. Don't know what the answer is to getting Dal to perform consistently. I think he has a bee in his bonnet at the moment and until that is sorted, he will continue to play as he has this year.

Brendon Goddard- Age 23 (DOB: 20th May, 1985)

I believe that as good a season as Brendon has had, we are still to see the best of him. Crucial to our backline, I feel that one of his biggest strengths is his versatility. From 2009 and beyond, he must be utilised far more in the midfield and potentially in the forward line. He is only 23, therefore, barring injury, has a minimum of six or seven quality years remaining in him.

I agree with your comments on his performance and believe that he should also spend a lot more time in the midfield. When he has played in the midfield this season, he has had a major impact.

Jason Gram- Age 24 (DOB: 27th Apr, 1984)

I would like to know what everyone's thoughts are on Jason. In my eyes, he has had a lacklustre season. The one frustration I harbour with Jason is his disposal, however this has been the case for many years now. There is now doubt that in full flight he is capable of breaking games through his run and carry, however he must work on his disposal and mental application if he is to break into the upper echelon of players in the AFL. At 24, has a minimum of five or six good years remaining.

I agree, he hasn't had the most consistent of years, but bear in mind that he has been playing the year with a hip injury that has been causing him a fair amount of pain. Fit and primed next year, you will see the best of Gram.

Leigh Montagna- Age 25 (DOB: 11th Feb, 1983)

Leigh is another who for mine has had a mediocre year by his standards. At 25, he has at least five good years of football remaining. Personally, I would like to see him played as a permanent wingman rather than towards the defensive line, as he is one midfielder who can be damaging on the scoreboard with his solid goal kicking.

Agreed

Stephen Milne- Age 28 (DOB: 8th Mar, 1980)

I sometimes fail to understand how people can be critical of Stephen when he consistently averages around three goals per game for us. Another stellar season as a small forward. At 28 years of age, there is no reason why he can't maintain this level for another three years.

Agreed

Matt Maguire- Age 24 (DOB: 30th May, 1984)

We're all hoping and praying that Matt can overcome his horror run of injuries and become a member of the senior line-up on a consistent basis. There is no doubting his ability, however I am concerned that his serious injuries will curtail his longevity in the game. Will he come back and play at the level he has shown us in the past? Only time will tell. At 24, he is still young enough to provide five or six years worth of valuable service.

This is the 64 million dollar question. If he starts next season like he did this season, it won't bode well for his future! Fingers crossed for Matty!!!

Justin Koschitzke- Age 26 (DOB: 20th Sep, 1982)

I just don't know anymore. So much promise - so little delivered. In my opinion, it's very, very difficult to recruit quality key position players, therefore I just don't know whether trading him is a viable option. Having said this, he just hasn't lived up to what we all thought he could be and should be. Has he been playing injured this year? If we were to look at trading him, would we realistically obtain what we want in return?

Must be kept, not traded. The biggest problem for Kosi is that he is not played in the right position. Keep him up full forward and don't play him in the ruck on a continual basis! Also, in regards to his performance, he has been playing with a knee injury (remember Nicks performances early this year until he overcame his?). Kosi is an elite player, he just needs to settle into one position and have an injury free pre season. He will come on stronger next year as '08 is the first full year he has played in the last 4-5 years!!!! Patience is needed for this player. Re-evaluate him at the end of next season if there is no improvement.

Steven Baker- Age 28 (DOB: 22nd May, 1980)

We all know how valuable he is to our team. One aspect to Steven's game that we have desperately missed all year is his toughness and physical presence. Based on the assumption that he will recover from injuries sustained this year, I feel that he has two or three quality years remaining in him.

Agreed


The Playing List - Fringe Players (9 Players)

Xavier Clarke- Age 24 (DOB: 28th Sep, 1983)

Potential galore - the problem is that he is injury prone. If he is able to stay fit and healthy, I believe that Xavier is a valuable member of our starting 22. The upside is that he is still young and will be turning 25 soon, therefore we can expect, injuries aside, at least five or six good years of football from him.

Agreed

Raphael Clarke- Age 22 (DOB: 24th Sep, 1985)

I'll be the first to admit that I had my doubts about Raphael, however the last two games have indicated to me that he may well turn out to be a valuable member of our starting 22. Having said this, I'm not going to profess my undying love for him after just two outstanding performances. I hope that this late season form will continue next year and in the years to come. As he is about to turn just 23, there is plenty of upside to Raphael, with potentially six or seven years of good football remaining.

Agreed. Needs another year to see if he can keep up the great form he has shown for the last 3-5 weeks of this season. If he can, he will develop from an average player into a very good player. His run out of the back line over the last few weeks has shown us a glimmer of what he can be capable of at his best!

Jason Blake- Age 27 (DOB: 15th Mar, 1981)

As much as people like to criticise Jason, he is a serviceable player. He is given a role and, more often than not, gives all of himself. Is he good enough to be part of a premiership winning team? Look, in all honesty, probably not. Then again, I don't really rate Josh Hunt from Geelong, yet he is a premiership winning player who plays his role for the team.

Agreed. I think he has played his best season for St Kilda this year. Was super impressed and believe that he has well and truly earned his stripes!

Adam Schneider- Age 23 (DOB: 5th Dec, 1984)

A very disappointing year in my opinion. I had such high hopes for Adam at the start of the season, however he simply hasn't delivered. He appears to be unfit and overweight, therefore he must work on these things in the off-season. Other than that, we know what sort of damaging player he can be and he is only 23, which bodes well for the club.

Don't agree with this summation. He has had injuries this year and I don't believe you can accurately assess him or his value at this stage. When he has been fit and overcome his injuries, he has shown us well and truly what he is capable of. You will see him making a move to the 'core list' of players group by the end of next year and out of the 'fringe players' group!

Sean Dempster- Age 24 (DOB: 20th Jan, 1984)

I didn't think too much of Sean's first half of the season, however I believe he improved dramatically in the second half. He has been dealt a cruel blow with a serious knee injury, therefore we don't know whether he will be participating in 2009. All in all, I believe he has been okay in his first season at a new club. Another who is still only 24, therefore age is on his side.

Agreed.

Steven King- Age 29 (DOB: 22nd Nov, 1978)

There is no doubt in my mind that Steven King has been the best of our experienced recruits for last year's off season. A great year for someone who is soon to be 30. Given his fitness and wealth of experience, I would very much like to think that he could remain with the club for at least two more years so that he can impart his knowledge to Ben McEvoy as the rucking future for our club.

Agreed. Super impressed with Kingy this year. A good pick up by the club!

Clinton Jones- Age 24 (DOB: 2nd Feb, 1984)

I believe CJ has showed enough potential this year to be given a chance next year. Both his hardness and application are terrific, and he is still young at 24 years of age. The second half of the season has been particularly pleasing, therefore I would like to think that this can continue into 2009 and beyond.

Agreed. However, I do believe he deserves a little more credit than you have given him. He was injured in the first half of the year and when made it back into the side and recovered his fitness, he was very good. Definitely earns his place on team.

Sam Gilbert- Age 22 (DOB: 19th Aug, 1986)

Sam is the one player on whom I deliberated the most. I don't want to look at the game last night in isolation, as that wouldn't be fair to Sam. He has shown glimpses of quality throughout the season, however he must find consistency in his play if he is to make it at the senior level. Having said this, he is only 22 years of age, therefore he should be given an opportunity to develop and continue to shape his game.

Completely disagree with you on this one. Similarly to Jones, he was injured early and made a great comeback once he broke back into the side and found his feet again. I think he is one of the more improved of our younger players and again is another one that has earned his place!

Shane Birss- Age 25 (DOB: 11th Mar, 1983)

Can anyone please tell me why Shane has not been playing over the past two months or so? I actually believe that he is a decent player - his Casey form highlights this. Whilst excellent VFL form doesn't necessarily translate into excellent form in the AFL, I believe that he should at least be given the opportunity ahead of other who have been selected ahead of him. Remarkably, he is only 25 years of age, therefore he still has at least four or five years of football remaining.

Jury is still out on Birss for me. I think he is a good average player but not sure if there is much improvement to be found in his game or ability. I would give him another year to see how he develops.

The Playing List - Youngsters (8 Players)

David Armitage- Age 20 (DOB: 16th Jun, 1988)

Total senior games: 16

David will be a very good player for St.Kilda - about this I have no doubt. The issue is that he needs to be played in the senior team week in, week out so that he is given an opportunity to develop alongside our other quality midfielders.

Agreed. Really impressed with Armitage this year. I still think he has a LOT of improvement left in him which bodes well for St Kilda.

Ben McEvoy- Age 19 (DOB: 11th Jul, 1989)

Total senior games: 1

Hopefully Ben can become a permanent fixture within the senior team in 2009. He needs game time to develop and to gain an understanding of the level at which senior AFL football is played.

Haven't seen enough of him to really comment.

Jarryd Allen- Age 20 (DOB: 14th Jan, 1988)

Total senior games: 4

Not enough senior exposure to make an informed decision.

Agreed

Eljay Connors- Age 18 (DOB: 1st Jan, 1990)

Total senior games: Yet to debut

Robert Eddy- Age 20 (DOB: 1st Jul, 1988)

Total senior games: 13

To be perfectly honest, I have my doubts as to whether or not Robert will make it at the senior level. Having said this, it is a little too early to tell - he needs to be given more time to develop.

Agree with you in regards to Eddy. As with Birss, they are good average players, but not sure they have any improvement left in them.

Jarryn Geary- Age 20 (DOB: 23rd Jun, 1988)

Total senior games: 10

I actually thought that Jarryn's efforts in his first ten senior games were above average. As with others, he needs to be given more game time to develop and adapt to the pace and level of senior AFL football.

Agreed

Brad Howard- Age 20 (DOB: 21st Dec, 1987)

Total senior games: 2

Not enough senior exposure to make an informed decision.

Jack Steven- Age 18 (DOB: 28th Mar, 1990)

Total senior games: Yet to debut


The Playing List - On The Outer (7 Players)

I won't be making a comment for each individual player listed below, rather an "umbrella" comment that can be applied to all of them. I honestly believe that if we are to be serious contenders for a premiership over the next five years or thereabouts, none of the players listed below are capable of playing in a winning premiership team.

Charlie Gardiner- Age 25 (DOB: 1st Mar, 1983)

Not sure I agree on this one. I would hang on to him for another 12 months to see how he develops.

Michael Rix- Age 27 (DOB: 1st Aug, 1981)

Agreed

Andrew McQualter- Age 22 (DOB: 9th Jun, 1986)

Agreed

James Gwilt- Age 21 (DOB: 8th Nov, 1986)

Agreed

Leigh Fisher- Age 24 (DOB: 19th Apr, 1984)

I agree with you summation of Leigh but with a heavy heart. I believe his playing days are over due to the horrific injuries he has succumbed to. Very sad but I do agree!!

Aaron Fiora- Age 27 (DOB: 19th Apr, 1981)

Agreed

Matthew Ferguson- Age 24 (DOB: 10th Jan, 1984)

Agreed

The Playing List - Retirees (3 Players)

Robert Harvey

Fraser Gehrig

Michael Gardiner

Gardiner retiring? Haven't OFFICIALLY read this anywhere. Would give the guy another 12 months and develop McEvoy in the meantime to step up and take his place and allowing Kosi to play permanently up forward.

Summary - My Thoughts

I don't believe that we need to make too many wholesale changes in the off-season. Of the core group, both Lenny and Max will be retiring before anyone else. Given this, we need to focus our attention on drafting a quality key defender, with the remaining draft picks to go exclusively on midfielders. What we have lacked for quite some time now is midfield depth and damaging pace.

Agreed

Our forward line, when fit and firing, is one of the most damaging in the league, with no impending retirements.

Other than Max, our backline will remain together for at least four or five years and looks to have a solid make-up.

Our midfield, other than Lenny, will be together for at least four or five years. What we desperately need is an injection of midfield depth and pace. Looking at the upcoming draft, there is enormous depth in the midfield stocks, therefore we should be able to recruit wisely in this area.

What I would like to see is our younger players having more game time, particularly Armitage and McEvoy. The only way in which we will develop our players and learn about them is by playing them, rather than topping up our team on a week-to-week basis with players who will not be part of our next premiership winning team. Armitage, McEvoy and company will be different players with 60-80 games under their belt - they simply need to be played.

Agree

Another thing I would like to see is a greater focus on our skills, as our disposal at times has been nothing short of abysmal. If we look at the other teams in the top four this year, the difference in the quality of disposal and general skill level is massive. If we want to be the best, we need to be able to compete with the best.

Agreed, but would also like to add a little in regards to fitness. I think they are still not playing to full fitness but a HELL of a lot better than last year. I believe the strength and the fitness will come next year. We had a complete shake up of the fitness and conditioning staff last year and we have already seen results from them this year. One of our better years injury wise (especially soft tissue injuries) for a very long time!!! I believe it will take another 12-18 months to fully reap the benefits. Watch closely for a stronger, fitter St Kilda next year.

[nicko016]

Most of the analysis thus far has been pretty reasonable. My take on thing is as follows:

Delist:
Fiora- had enough chances and just doesn't do enough. Not sure on his contract though?
Rix- only if Gardiner goes around again
Ferguson- competing with C. Gardiner and Charlie's only had one year compared to numerous for Ferguson. What's dissappointing is that he's a really natural footballer.
Fisher- doesn't suit the game anymore.

Gwilt maybe if were looking at having a few more spaces on the list. Obviously see if there's any interest in these above or even X. Clarke. Might be able to swap for a player or get a 3rd round pick or upgrade of a late pick.

Retired:
Gehrig
Harvey

That leaves probalby six or seven spots for two rookie promotions (Eddy + Attard as they both alreadly had 2 years on the list and can no longer stay as rookies). McQualter could be pormoted straightaway for Dempster as well. With the remaining four or five spots we could take all kids or take 1 or max 2 players from other clubs.

Unfortunately though, to get quality players you'd have to trade quality so were unlikely to secure much. Two I thought of were Daniel Harris and Corey Jones as they'd be two you might not have to give up much for. But they're hardly fantastic players, nor young. On BigFooty though, a few North supporters suggested a straight swap of Jones for Fiora. How I wish.

In reality, though our imporvement needs to come from our younger players and I think we need to look to next years 3rd year players. After two years you should be able to beign to contribute. These players are Armitage, Allen and Howard. Arimtage can hopefully become a regular midfielder while we could look to Allen to kick 15-20 goals a bit like Tippett did or Anthony from Collingwood. Howard, has been playing a lot on HB for Casey this year I think, and his development in that role at AFL level would be really helpful to us as it could release Gram to the midfield to give Hayes and Ball some desperately needed help.

[Richter]

Nice work Castro. I agree with a lot of what you have written.

However......

Roo - the team is already built around him. Obviously - he is our best player by a wide margin. Top 10 in the comp for mine.

Lenny - no. He is the "most overrated underrated player" - whilst he can get plenty of the ball and is a clearance king, his disposal is not elite, pace average and does not kick goals. Judd is in a totally different league to Lenny. Lenny is a bit like Scott West for the Bulldogs - one of the best players in the team but not the sort of player whose extraordinary skill will take us to the next level - mid.s who are (were) at this level - Judd, Ablett, (Cousins, Buckley, Voss). Lenny has never been close to getting a Brownlow of AFLPA player of the year.

Max - he really is the most underrated player going around. Without Max last night we'd have been flogged by 100 points+. Sadly Williams touched up Sam Gilbert. I fear for our defence once Max goes. Such a shame about Dempster, Maguire (and Penny for that matter).

Goddard - whilst he has been our quarterback I believe that BJ's best position will be through the midfield. I am praying that he can take his game to that next level - be our Nathan Buckley. 3rd quarter last night, Goddard out of the middle to Roo on the lead Goal. I want to see that 6 times a game next year. Pinpoint passing like that to a thoroughbred like Roo on the lead is nigh on impossible to stop. See more of that and we will become a genuine tilt at a flag.

[Legendary]

Delist
Fraser Gehrig (retired)
Robert Harvey (retired)
Charlie Gardiner
Matthew Ferguson
Aaron Fiora
Leigh Fisher
Michael Gardiner
Andrew McQualter

Eddy will be promoted, and possibly Attard. That leaves us with 6 spots on the list ...

Fiora may be saved by the fact that he is contracted, leaving us with 5 spots on the list (4 draft picks + Ben Cousins hopefully).

[steph]

Great analysis, agree with most and very refreshing to see someone not wanting to trade half the list

However:

I think you've been harsh on Montagna, for mine he's been our second best mid this yr behind Lenny

Also, too harsh on Gilbert, I admit he needs to work on his disposal, but is going to be a very important part of our backline. Good hands, great tanacity, just needs a bit of fine tuning.

I'd also give Gwilt another year, he has beautiful disposal and a strong body, things we are missing in a lot of players.

Finally, can't agree on Xavier Clarke. No 25 year old should be outbodied in contests as easily as he is. Highly skilled yes, but unfortunately i think his injuries have meant that the game has moved past him. Can't keep his feet, fumbles constantly, and loses every contest he's involved in. Tough decision but don't see him in our future.

[saintly]

Most of the analysis thus far has been pretty reasonable. My take on thing is as follows:

Delist:
Fiora- had enough chances and just doesn't do enough. Not sure on his contract though?
Rix- only if Gardiner goes around again
Ferguson- competing with C. Gardiner and Charlie's only had one year compared to numerous for Ferguson. What's dissappointing is that he's a really natural footballer.
Fisher- doesn't suit the game anymore.

Gwilt maybe if were looking at having a few more spaces on the list. Obviously see if there's any interest in these above or even X. Clarke. Might be able to swap for a player or get a 3rd round pick or upgrade of a late pick.

Retired:
Gehrig
Harvey

That leaves probalby six or seven spots for two rookie promotions (Eddy + Attard as they both alreadly had 2 years on the list and can no longer stay as rookies). McQualter could be pormoted straightaway for Dempster as well. With the remaining four or five spots we could take all kids or take 1 or max 2 players from other clubs.

Unfortunately though, to get quality players you'd have to trade quality so were unlikely to secure much. Two I thought of were Daniel Harris and Corey Jones as they'd be two you might not have to give up much for. But they're hardly fantastic players, nor young. On BigFooty though, a few North supporters suggested a straight swap of Jones for Fiora. How I wish.

.

fiora has 1 year to go on his contract

rix, ferguson, fisher & x clarke , contracts finish this year.

[Art Vandelay]

Hey Castro,

Great analysis overall, but I would have liked one additional category in your assessment. That is PLAYERS THAT ARE MENTALLY FRAGILE.
In this group I would include:
Dal Santo
Gram
Montagna
Kosi

None of these guys stood up in 3 weeks of hard and tough finals football. If Ross Lyon is true to his word then at least one or two of these players will be weeded out.

[BigMart]

All of those four were exceptional against Collingwood......nearly everyone was poor against Hawthorn....


BTW - hasn't Kosi played all his best games this season as a ruckman???....and has struggled as a FF??

[Thinline]

Excellent post.

Fantastic to see it all laid out like that. And mightily encouraging to see that there is still time for players to a) play their best football and b) evolve.

Hayes only 28 - feel like i've been watching him since I was a toddler!!

Some comments:

Gwilt - I think he's been a pretty reasonable contributor this year. Did well against the Pies, and he's tall and athletic. With work on his footskills (see below re Sam Gilbert), he could be a real improver. Personally, i'd like to see if he can play as a foil forward to Riewoldt (left footer to Nick's right). What do you think?

McQualter - would love to see him become 'Mitchell-ised'. He's small and not particularly quick, but he (from all reports) has a big tank. Could he become an in and under specialist?

Eddy - will bloom. Young and fit and hungry. He'll be a good player for us. We need to keep young guys with a fewgames nder their belts. Must persist with him.

Gilbert - Cannot doubt his hunger nor his marking ability nor his athleticism. At 22 he has time. Footskills are suspect, but that is a skill that can be worked on and improved pretty fast (geez, if I - an absolute hack - can learn to hit targets with something approaching moderate consistency at 30m with MY dodgy left foot at age 34, then the future's bright for him!!!! )

Maguire - would love to see Goose back. It breaks my heart to say it, but I MUST query whether there is a place for a sluggish CHB in the modern game? Invite comment on this...

Kosi - Contrarily, I think he's a ruckman who can float forward. I think we should invest time in improving his rucking skills, float him orward to take a few grabs, and quit expecting him to be a superhero. The guy plays a new position every five minutes. I don't envy him.

McEvoy - Massive preseason for him. He should expect to play a fair bit next year.

In more general terms I would expect our players to get an absolute flogging on the track this year to supplement the improvements in fitness that this season has shown (six or seven come from behind wins, remember). Fitness is a long term skill. I also hope and pray that footskills are at the top of the tree in terms of skills training. We definintely lag in that department compared to teams above us on the ladder.

[Animal Enclosure]

Thanks, Animal. I'm curious to know what the 1% is you disagree with!

Probably just your comments on Sam Gilbert. He will be much better for the experience of getting torched by Williams & hopefully will be given the big jobs next year. He is our future #1 stopper & will improve drastically as he learns the game. We should remember that he started playing AFL in his mid teens & as such hasn't had the grounding that most players do.

[Saints Premiers 2008]

i would love to see goose put forward upon his return...

although we saw him play forward a bit before he was injured (the two previous injury lay-offs) his confidence was way down and playing him forward was an attempt to get him into the game...

to me he seems a decent enough third tall...i dont think he would be a liability due to the fact of his height and strength...a gilbee type player would not go to goose with the idea of running off him because goose would slaughter him in the air with his height and body strength...so its a decent option

thoughts?

[bigcarl]

i would love to see goose put forward upon his return...

although we saw him play forward a bit before he was injured (the two previous injury lay-offs) his confidence was way down and playing him forward was an attempt to get him into the game...

to me he seems a decent enough third tall...i dont think he would be a liability due to the fact of his height and strength...a gilbee type player would not go to goose with the idea of running off him because goose would slaughter him in the air with his height and body strength...so its a decent option

thoughts?

let's see whether he can ever regain full fitness but, yes, definitely worth a thought at chf.