plugger66 wrote:BAM! (shhhh) wrote:I always get the impression when reading Kosi threads that people are holding a grudge against him for not developing into a Reiwoldt calibre superstar.
As much as we need to get over that expectation from an excuses perspective, we need to look at what he actually does.
IMO, what he actually does is inconsistently find ways to make a couple of his elite skills (pack marking, contested possessions in tight at ground level, generally good disposal - very good for a big man) count on match day. He's neither quick nor slow, but lacks the burst of speed to be a leading forward, and tends to be a 50/50 proposition in a marking contest against a guy his own size or experienced defender. He's a utility at this stage rather than a ruck or forward... calling him a ruck/forward inspires visions of things he doesn't do, and doesn't credit one of his greatest contributions, where he floats back to mark in defense.
Should we trade him? The questions to ask:
- What kind of hole does it leave (is Blake an option as full time 2nd ruck? What does the removed tall leave in the forward structure)
- What can we get for him, and what's the upside of that return (there's no point trading him if the assett returned doesn't help us in some way)
- Do we think Kosi's value is low or high right now (i.e. is he underperforming - his perceived value is low, driving low return, but given a good 2009 we might get more for him, or is he overhyped meaning another team would give up a lot, and we should trade before otehrs catch on) compared to his value to the team.
It often seems to me that those who are most critical of Kosi believe we'll get a 1st rounder for him - based on season 2008, I can't see it. I can still see enough in the good games he's had to hope for a better 2009. I believe he provides decent value at St Kilda, that wouldn't be filled by any return for him.
I don't believe he'll ever become a superstar for us. I do think that at his worst he's not a liability, so that he's worth persisting with in the hope we can get his best out of him more often.
Thats all fine if he was on 200k a year but because of his wage he limits who we can trade for as we have salary cap pressure. of course he isnt the only one on big money but he had the bggest disparity between what he gets and what he should get.
His wage doesn't change the criteria, in fact it magnifies the quandry.
In a hypothetical where we know his wage (and while it's been speculated at, I certainly don't), the consideration of value to team vs. value on trade return becomes larger. The additional consideration becomes whether we've got options for spending that money better under the salary cap. i.e. if he's offloaded for a 2nd rounder with a view to re-signing other players, that's a different consideration than offloading him for a 2nd rounder by itself.
But given that player payments are confidential, it makes it a tough discussion for message boards since we don't know how much pressure the Saints are under (and you'd assume we don't have a lot of room to move), vs how many players are in line for raises (we have some idea) and what their demands will be (we can guess)... and how much room other prospective trading partners have under the cap (major consideration, hard to have much info). Any one of those aspects by itself makes an interesting area for hypothesis - taken together they make it difficult for us to weigh Kosi's salary impact on keep vs. trade, let alone on trade return.
I'd certainly expecting any officials making a trade decision to weigh all these things.
But should his salary be high (which we think it is) it makes it harder to trade him, makes return smaller, and unless absolutely necessary, means that IMO we should be trying to get an improvement in '09 rather than offloading after '08.