Ladder Predictor

[saint patrick]

Would be a very interesting time to have another stab at the different possible scenerios...if someone has sensibly kept the link unlike myself could they repost it

...thanks in advance

[Otiman]

http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

I've got us finishing 5th, if we drop the Hawthorn and Collingwood games.

Still 5th if we drop only one of Hawthorn or Collingwood

Still 5th if we beat both Hawthorn or Collingwood (down on Collingwood on %)

6th or 7th if we drop Hawthorn, Collingwood and Fremantle games.

[saint patrick]

http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

I'm not game to do it though.

Do it after a win and you overestimate us, do it after a loss and you underestimate us.

Know what you mean Otiman...Itry to do it realistically but then its only conjecture...only got 4 in my tips this week

An interesting way to look at the best and worst case scenerios non the less...

Thanks for the link..which Iwill save this time

[redwhite&blackblood]

My go at this (i am back in my normal optimistic view)-
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2450 1711 143.19 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2492 1931 129.05 78
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2354 1868 126.02 76
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2342 1969 118.94 60
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2071 1762 117.54 54
6 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2063 1996 103.36 52
7 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2026 1967 103.00 44
8 Bris Lions 22 11 11 0 2172 2146 101.21 44
9 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2184 2218 98.47 42
10 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2068 2226 92.90 36
11 Essendon 22 9 13 0 2074 2412 85.99 36
12 Nth Melb 22 8 13 1 1966 2148 91.53 34
13 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2014 2197 91.67 24
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 1874 2144 87.41 16
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1771 2474 71.58 16
16 West Coast 22 2 20 0 1677 2429 69.04 8

[plugger66]

This is my attempt.


Predicted Ladder # Team Pl W L D PF PA Perc Pts
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2540 1671 152.00 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2512 1921 130.77 78
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2364 1853 127.58 76
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2332 1949 119.65 60
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2051 1727 118.76 54
6 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2028 1951 103.95 52
7 Bris Lions 22 12 10 0 2187 2091 104.59 48
8 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 1986 1907 104.14 48
9 Nth Melb 22 9 12 1 1966 2108 93.26 38
10 Richmond 22 9 12 1 2079 2232 93.15 38
11 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2053 2211 92.85 36
12 Essendon 22 8 14 0 2059 2417 85.19 32
13 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 1964 2177 90.22 24
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 1829 2121 86.23 16
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1711 2519 67.92 12
16 West Coast 22 2 20 0 1608 2414 66.61 8

[plugger66]

My go at this (i am back in my normal optimistic view)-
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2450 1711 143.19 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2492 1931 129.05 78
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2354 1868 126.02 76
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2342 1969 118.94 60
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2071 1762 117.54 54
6 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2063 1996 103.36 52
7 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2026 1967 103.00 44
8 Bris Lions 22 11 11 0 2172 2146 101.21 44
9 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2184 2218 98.47 42
10 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2068 2226 92.90 36
11 Essendon 22 9 13 0 2074 2412 85.99 36
12 Nth Melb 22 8 13 1 1966 2148 91.53 34
13 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2014 2197 91.67 24
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 1874 2144 87.41 16
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1771 2474 71.58 16
16 West Coast 22 2 20 0 1677 2429 69.04 8

Did I copy you or did you copy me. Like your guesswork.

[WayneJudson42]

Can we make top 4?

[plugger66]

Can we make top 4?

Not unless we won every game which if we are honest isnt going to happen.

[WayneJudson42]

True, but look at what happened to teh Crows yesterday. It only takes a few injuries and everything is now wide open. It would depend on other results also.

[saint66au]

If the highest-placed team wins each game 100-80 from here on in....the laddder ends up

Geelong 22 21 1 0 2450 1711 143.19 84
2 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2354 1868 126.02 76
3 W Bulldogs 21 18 2 1 2392 1851 129.23 74
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2332 1949 119.65 60
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2071 1762 117.54 54
6 Adelaide 22 13 9 0 2066 1927 107.21 52
7 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2023 2006 100.85 48
8 Bris Lions 21 11 10 0 2092 2046 102.25 44
9 Richmond 22 9 12 1 2124 2208 96.20 38
10 Carlton 21 9 12 0 1988 2126 93.51 36
11 Nth Melb 20 8 11 1 1806 1948 92.71 34
12 Essendon 22 8 14 0 2054 2432 84.46 32
13 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2014 2197 91.67 24
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 1874 2144 87.41 16
15 West Coast 22 3 19 0 1667 2369 70.37 12
16 Melbourne 21 2 19 0 1651 2414 68.39 8


We'd play Adelaide at AAMI week 1

Reality is I reckon if we finish 7th-8th we are heading interstate..cant see anyone else but two of Syd-Adel-Bris filling 5-6 unless we do.

[noob]

1 Geelong 22 20 2 0 2686 1717 156.44 80
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2620 2055 127.49 78
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2493 1943 128.31 76
4 St Kilda 22 14 8 0 2086 2004 104.09 56
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2120 1769 119.84 54
6 Collingwood 22 13 9 0 2329 2027 114.90 52
7 Bris Lions 22 12 10 0 2323 2167 107.20 48
8 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2072 2068 100.19 44
9 Essendon 22 10 12 0 2251 2476 90.91 40
10 Richmond 22 9 12 1 2232 2316 96.37 38
11 Nth Melb 22 9 12 1 2064 2223 92.85 38
12 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2157 2321 92.93 36
13 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 1982 2193 90.38 24
14 Fremantle 22 5 17 0 1883 2153 87.46 20
15 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1749 2657 65.83 12
16 West Coast 22 2 20 0 1649 2607 63.25 8
thats if a lot of luck goes our way. lose to hawks. beat eagles over there. tight one against freo over there. both south australian teams we'll beat here. can beat essendon and collingwood if form is our way.

[Spinner]

# Team Pl W L D PF PA Perc Pts
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2680 1721 155.72 84
2 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2584 1908 135.43 76
3 W Bulldogs 22 18 3 1 2652 1961 135.24 74
4 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2382 1989 119.76 56
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2181 1792 121.71 54
6 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2143 2016 106.30 52
7 Bris Lions 22 13 9 0 2342 2206 106.17 52
8 Adelaide 22 12 10 0 2166 2007 107.92 48
9 Nth Melb 22 9 12 1 2076 2238 92.76 38
10 Richmond 22 9 12 1 2224 2428 91.60 38
11 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2108 2396 87.98 36
12 Essendon 22 7 15 0 2064 2572 80.25 28
13 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2064 2277 90.65 24
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 1904 2224 85.61 16
15 West Coast 22 4 18 0 1747 2609 66.96 16
16 Melbourne 22 3 19 0 1761 2734 64.41 12

[saint patrick]

My prediction...


1 Geelong 22 21 1
2 Hawthorn 22 18 4
3 W Bulldogs 21 17 3
4 Collingwood 22 16 6
5 Sydney 22 13 8
6 Bris Lions 22 13 9
7 St Kilda 22 12 10
8 Essendon 22 11 11
9 Richmond 22 9 12
10 Nth Melb 22 9 12
11 Adelaide 22 9 13
12 Carlton 21 9 12
13 Port Adel 22 7 15
14 Fremantle 22 4 18
15 Melbourne 22 3 19
16 West Coast 22 2 20


Had us beating Adel,W/C ,Freo and Port

Losses to Hawks,Collingwood and Essendon.

A win this week would really nail our postion in the 8.

Go Sainters...seize the moment

[Ralphy]

you have us losing against essendon?

[saint patrick]

you have us losing against essendon?

Pretty pessimistic I admit but certainly not impossible at the Dome on current form...worst case scenerio stuff and I hope to be wrong

The bottom line is we just need to win 4 from 7 to be safe ..
only 3 and we rely on other results.

[redwhite&blackblood]

My go at this (i am back in my normal optimistic view)-
1 Geelong 22 21 1 0 2450 1711 143.19 84
2 W Bulldogs 22 19 2 1 2492 1931 129.05 78
3 Hawthorn 22 19 3 0 2354 1868 126.02 76
4 Collingwood 22 15 7 0 2342 1969 118.94 60
5 Sydney 22 13 8 1 2071 1762 117.54 54
6 St Kilda 22 13 9 0 2063 1996 103.36 52
7 Adelaide 22 11 11 0 2026 1967 103.00 44
8 Bris Lions 22 11 11 0 2172 2146 101.21 44
9 Richmond 22 10 11 1 2184 2218 98.47 42
10 Carlton 22 9 13 0 2068 2226 92.90 36
11 Essendon 22 9 13 0 2074 2412 85.99 36
12 Nth Melb 22 8 13 1 1966 2148 91.53 34
13 Port Adel 22 6 16 0 2014 2197 91.67 24
14 Fremantle 22 4 18 0 1874 2144 87.41 16
15 Melbourne 22 4 18 0 1771 2474 71.58 16
16 West Coast 22 2 20 0 1677 2429 69.04 8

Did I copy you or did you copy me. Like your guesswork.

We are different from 7 - 12.

[karnaby]

Not too worried about doing it myself, but I do think that 6th place would be fine so long as there were 4 vic teams in the top 4 as that would mean that there would be no interstate trips if/when we win.

[Teflon]

I think we will win 4 from 7 and finish 7/8.

Should we win 5 from 7 we can finish as high as 5

we will absolutely beat Essendon in what could be Harveys last game. If we dont we deserve to be flogged.

[plugger66]

I think we will win 4 from 7 and finish 7/8.

Should we win 5 from 7 we can finish as high as 5

we will absolutely beat Essendon in what could be Harveys last game. If we dont we deserve to be flogged.

It cant be Harvs last game unless we are out of the finals race and if that was to happen our form must have been poor in the last 7 weeks.

[Teflon]

I think we will win 4 from 7 and finish 7/8.

Should we win 5 from 7 we can finish as high as 5

we will absolutely beat Essendon in what could be Harveys last game. If we dont we deserve to be flogged.

It cant be Harvs last game unless we are out of the finals race and if that was to happen our form must have been poor in the last 7 weeks.

we win only 3 from 7 and its Harvs last game.

That simple....and dont tell me it aint possible...

[mick13]

If we lost to the Pies, and win every other game. The Pies will finish 4 points and 12% ahead of us.

We need to win every game, and win a few by 10 goals to be a realistic chance at the top 4.

[bigcarl]

we win only 3 from 7 and its Harvs last game. That simple....and dont tell me it aint possible...

surely they wouldn't send him off like that ... would they?