The run home...

[saints11]

We will win most of those I think

[fugazi]

Its a prety good run home really...we can't complain about the draw this year.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

Enjoying the optomism for a change. Not sure whether I share it - I suspect this weekend will decide me on whether we're an off chance of finals and from there who knows or whether it's a matter of if we even make the finals we'll get smashed.

We're on 6 wins, and have 4 "should win" games - West Coast, Freo, Essendon and Port. 2 of those are interstate, but still should be won... it will say a lot about the Saints if we lose either. Essendon's the dome, and Port's the dome, and Port's about to start tanking.

If we win ALL of those, we'd be on 10 for the season, and probably closely missing finals again.

Which means we must win at least 1 (probably 2 as everton says) of North, Carlton, Collingwood and Hawthorn. Frankly, for there to be any belief on my part, we're going to have to win 2 of those games anyway. While I can see us as capable, previous performances against in form sides doesn't exactly fill me with optomism... e.g. while I agree with others that we match up well to nullify Hawthorn's stregths, we're not such a powerful side that doing so in any way implies a win... they're quite capable of beating us without a big game from Buddy, kicking a medium score and letting us flounder, and they're also capable of utterly smashing us. We're not capable of utterly smashing them, unless something massive changes between now and that game, it's cross your fingers we win by 5 points, and keep waiting for them to steamroll us.

With our .500 win rate, it's been like this all season, but with time and opportunities running out it's truer than ever. The next 2 games are huge.

[Dan Warna]

i have no faith we will win the majority on the run home

I believe we have the talent to do it.

suprise me st kilda make me believe again

[BAM! (shhhh)]

i have no faith we will win the majority on the run home

I believe we have the talent to do it.

suprise me st kilda make me believe again

Totally agree with this sentiment.

The one thing I take out of the Freo game is that the team finally looked like they were playing together and for each other. There were still horrendous issues with the actual performance itself, but if they can play as a team, they may just be able to turn me around.

Of course, I'm extremely biased and want to be turned around

[saintspremiers]

We need to win six.

We'll be lucky to get four.

We're not good enough.

I tend to agree.

As last years Grand Finalists Port have done - shut up shop, focus on the list....a lot can happen in a year...play kids work out who stays/who goes.

Making 8th does nothing for me - you get more reward for 12th. Call me what you like - thems the facts of our current biased comp and THIS year is more important than ever.

I can't believe this attitude.

Our club have been shyte for most of the 25 years I've followed them.

I'd be stoked if we finish 8th and play a final.

We NEED all the finals exposure we can get for the sake of our brand.

Ok, our 1st round draft pick may be 4 rungs lower, but offset that against the benefit of playing even just one final, exposure wise?

I've read one clown on here even say that finishing 8th and winning one final then bombing out will do nothing for them.

FFS get a grip you lot!

Only ONE team can win the flag and only TWO teams can make the Granny!

[Dan Warna]

concur SP

the whole 'list is terrible' is a furphy.

I think Joffaboys analogy of an engine out of tune or somethign is better.

might even be a bad driver at the wheel.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

I always wonder about the disregard of finishing 8th as well.

If the focus is on adding to the list ala Melbourne's desperate need (or West Coast), by all means tank.

If the focus is on blooding young players ala Port Adelaide whose cinderella 2007 hasn't been backed up, and you're searching for core players beyond a very small group, then acknowledge it and see what you've got.

If what you're in need of is the team to gel and play together, and play up to their own ability, ala St. Kilda, Carlton, Richmond, and most of the league, then pur games played has nothing on finals experience.

From where we are, just getting to 8th means a positive second half of the season (probably including wins against teams of the caliber we'd play in an elimination final), which is a good start, and the experience would be the best kind we could give to the kids that are/will be in the lineup, the players that have joined the club from elsewhere, and demand that they play for each other and the club.

8th and out, or 7th/8th and a single finals win won't be something to get rah rah about... but neither's 12th and the 4th overall pick. Given a choice I'll take 8th and out any day. "Premiership or bust" talk just rings as bluster in my ears.

[Saint Mik]

well we better make the finals ... cos i just noticed that our last game is an away game.

this could possibly be harvs last game.
and we all know how disgraceful bombers fans are (or can be). they would probably boo him thats how bad they are.

not happy

You're a complete moron a half wit and are FARKING blind

Have you not been to any games this year

As if this is his last year

Can't retire when you win the B&F

Oh and the abuse is tounge in cheek just incase your a sook like a collingwood fan

[Teflon]

We need to win six.

Ok, our 1st round draft pick may be 4 rungs lower, but offset that against the benefit of playing even just one final, exposure wise?

Geelon finish any lower in 06 and they miss out on Joel Selwood. Id take a higher pick for a crack at a "Joel selwood" to complement Ball, Hayes, Dal, Montagna and co anyday.

I think the whole "lets get exposure" is rubbish - we finish 8th and we are out in week 1 with a lower pick - (lower pick is a fact). Thats the competition we play in.

[Teflon]

I always wonder about the disregard of finishing 8th as well.

If the focus is on adding to the list ala Melbourne's desperate need (or West Coast), by all means tank.

If the focus is on blooding young players ala Port Adelaide whose cinderella 2007 hasn't been backed up, and you're searching for core players beyond a very small group, then acknowledge it and see what you've got.

If what you're in need of is the team to gel and play together, and play up to their own ability, ala St. Kilda, Carlton, Richmond, and most of the league, then pur games played has nothing on finals experience.

From where we are, just getting to 8th means a positive second half of the season (probably including wins against teams of the caliber we'd play in an elimination final), which is a good start, and the experience would be the best kind we could give to the kids that are/will be in the lineup, the players that have joined the club from elsewhere, and demand that they play for each other and the club.

8th and out, or 7th/8th and a single finals win won't be something to get rah rah about... but neither's 12th and the 4th overall pick. Given a choice I'll take 8th and out any day. "Premiership or bust" talk just rings as bluster in my ears.

Giving our "kids" experience to play at AFL is first step. We dont need to finish 8th and bomb out week 1 to do that. AND IF we finished 8th and were playing an Elimination Final do you honestly reckon Ross Lyon is gonna say "sorry Kosi, Gardiner, Kingy you'll need to sit this out cause Im giving Ben McEvoy some experience??"

Nup. Its a pipe dream.

We need to ADD as much YOUTHFUL quality to this list that we can - THE BEST way to do that under the current AFL system (in a season where after this year the draft will be enormously thin) is to get as low as pick as possible.

As I said had Geelong finished lower they miss out on a Sellwood.........If I had an opportunity tyo ensure I had a higher pick to get a player of that calibre to complement our core I would.

[rexy]

I think you are being a bit presumptious on your analysis of the draft, they may still have got Selwood with pick 9 or may have still taken him if they had pick 2. There is no correct draft order or assurances that players will turn out as expected. By your thinking if we had of won 2 more games in 01 or whenever it was we would have got Judd and the Eagles Ball as they would have had a higher pick than us, so finishing lower does not always get you the best player or the best fit for your club, Lance Franklin not number 1 either. The draft is not a science.

We must play finals to A.-have a crack at a flag
B.-sure up sponsorship
C.-encourage future membership
D.-build beleif in the playing group
E.-have some evidence that RL has the players
F.-be attractive to potential draftees and recruits
G.-re-sign players who we want to keep

[degruch]

I think you are being a bit presumptious on your analysis of the draft, they may still have got Selwood with pick 9 or may have still taken him if they had pick 2. There is no correct draft order or assurances that players will turn out as expected. By your thinking if we had of won 2 more games in 01 or whenever it was we would have got Judd and the Eagles Ball as they would have had a higher pick than us, so finishing lower does not always get you the best player or the best fit for your club, Lance Franklin not number 1 either. The draft is not a science.

We must play finals to A.-have a crack at a flag
B.-sure up sponsorship
C.-encourage future membership
D.-build beleif in the playing group
E.-have some evidence that RL has the players
F.-be attractive to potential draftees and recruits
G.-re-sign players who we want to keep

Good one Rexy...I agree, people who claim that we must 'tank' in order to get high draft picks ignore the fact that high doesn't always equal great. Of course, there's a fair chance they will be, but Matt Burgan did a list of top players from draft picks 50 upwards last year, and I was amazed to see how many great serviceable players were well down on the list. No. 1 draft pick is no guarantee, if your club's talent scouts aren't savvy. Of course, I think we've done quite well in the past.

We need success on the field to help develop and encourage who we've got currently, not fail to try and 'buy' new ones. That type of loser attitude doesn't belong in any successful club and I'm embarrassed to see how often it gets put forward on this forum. The current Saints will be winners, and I'm sure some support would go a long way towards helping that attitude breed amongst the younger players.

[Teflon]

I think you are being a bit presumptious on your analysis of the draft, they may still have got Selwood with pick 9 or may have still taken him if they had pick 2. There is no correct draft order or assurances that players will turn out as expected. By your thinking if we had of won 2 more games in 01 or whenever it was we would have got Judd and the Eagles Ball as they would have had a higher pick than us, so finishing lower does not always get you the best player or the best fit for your club, Lance Franklin not number 1 either. The draft is not a science.

We must play finals to A.-have a crack at a flag
B.-sure up sponsorship
C.-encourage future membership
D.-build beleif in the playing group
E.-have some evidence that RL has the players
F.-be attractive to potential draftees and recruits
G.-re-sign players who we want to keep

Ofcourse Im being presumptuous Rexy and simplistic and ofcourse the "order" of selection isnt moderated by your pick -you can still have pick 3 and say....take Fiora over Pavlich....its been done....

But what the current system does GUARANTEE and you cant argue with is this" should you finish lower you get a higher choice and that INCREASES your selection options and gives you a better chance than many other clubs at getting a good kid first. Thats the system we live in.

You make some presumptions yourself:

Lets assume we finish 8th:

You assume this:
a Gives us a crack at the flag.... its very optomistic Rexy...
b Translates to sudden corporate sponsorship... nup.

c will magically conjure up members.....I disagree and think it would need some real rejuvination to do that (like.......picking up a sellwood... )

d Build belief in the playing group....I agree with this one....but belief will get you so far before you realise you dont have the skills/abilities to really challenge a Geelong for the flag which is the only thing any saints fan would be interested in I woulda thought.

e Proves RL has the players.....well I dont buy this theory but lets use your logic.......RL and the team won 7.5 out of last years last 11......so now he's suddenly "lost" them. Thats convenient cr@p. We havent gelled and many good commentators NOW recognise thats cause the cattle aint as great as we all (and Dan still thinks......but ah well...).

f we'll suddenly "be attractive" to draftees and recruits.......I think any AFL side would be attractive to a kid getting a shot at the big time...
g re-sign players......nup. If we limp into 8th I reckon it will have not one iota of impact on whether or not a players made up his mind to stay or go.....that will come long before then and his manager, opportunities elsewhere and $$ will have some say in that.

Its all "assumptions" on here Rexy....thats what we do. but from both our posts Id say Ive presented the ONLY fact - higher draft picks occur from finishing lower. FACT.

[mbogo]

So the next two are critically important.
In fact - lose on Sat and we are half-cactused!

[rexy]

We must play finals to A.-have a crack at a flag

Its all "assumptions" on here Rexy....thats what we do. but from both our posts Id say Ive presented the ONLY fact - higher draft picks occur from finishing lower. FACT.

Id say thats one fact all, you cant win a flag if your not in the 8, fact!

Interesting that you use Geelong and Selwood as an example, Geelong missed the 8 in 06 and after rd 5/6 were already being written off for 07, they turned it around with the same list except Selwood. So either one 18 year old kid turned 8 or 9 others into All Australians without actually being one hmself or their beleif in themselves there coach there abilities and the gameplan was turned around with frank discussion and a disciplined approach. Glad they didnt drop 6 senior players and start tanking for 08 draft after they lost to the roos at cat park last year (well im not really but I bet they are.) Dont remember anyone in the after press from last years GF saying, Selwood has been the difference to our whole clubs fortunes?

[Teflon]

We must play finals to A.-have a crack at a flag

Its all "assumptions" on here Rexy....thats what we do. but from both our posts Id say Ive presented the ONLY fact - higher draft picks occur from finishing lower. FACT.

Id say thats one fact all, you cant win a flag if your not in the 8, fact!

Interesting that you use Geelong and Selwood as an example, Geelong missed the 8 in 06 and after rd 5/6 were already being written off for 07, they turned it around with the same list except Selwood. So either one 18 year old kid turned 8 or 9 others into All Australians without actually being one hmself or their beleif in themselves there coach there abilities and the gameplan was turned around with frank discussion and a disciplined approach. Glad they didnt drop 6 senior players and start tanking for 08 draft after they lost to the roos at cat park last year (well im not really but I bet they are.) Dont remember anyone in the after press from last years GF saying, Selwood has been the difference to our whole clubs fortunes?

I did use sellwood and that and Geelong and their performance are an entirely diferent topic.

I will say this......Geelong spent 06 out finals and rebounded mid season 07 to win the lot......do you really think we are about to explode and do the same ? go through Geelong's "top up" players and ours....do you really believe many playing for us would get a game at geelong? Gwilts? Fergusons? Raph? Jones? Blakes? Mqualter? et al?......and be honest about where the two clubs are at......C Gardiner couldnt get a run with them...some on here had him as the answer to our fwd problems...

We aint in Geelongs league list wise. Weve just taken longer to realise that.

[BAM! (shhhh)]

I always wonder about the disregard of finishing 8th as well.

If the focus is on adding to the list ala Melbourne's desperate need (or West Coast), by all means tank.

If the focus is on blooding young players ala Port Adelaide whose cinderella 2007 hasn't been backed up, and you're searching for core players beyond a very small group, then acknowledge it and see what you've got.

If what you're in need of is the team to gel and play together, and play up to their own ability, ala St. Kilda, Carlton, Richmond, and most of the league, then pur games played has nothing on finals experience.

From where we are, just getting to 8th means a positive second half of the season (probably including wins against teams of the caliber we'd play in an elimination final), which is a good start, and the experience would be the best kind we could give to the kids that are/will be in the lineup, the players that have joined the club from elsewhere, and demand that they play for each other and the club.

8th and out, or 7th/8th and a single finals win won't be something to get rah rah about... but neither's 12th and the 4th overall pick. Given a choice I'll take 8th and out any day. "Premiership or bust" talk just rings as bluster in my ears.

Giving our "kids" experience to play at AFL is first step. We dont need to finish 8th and bomb out week 1 to do that. AND IF we finished 8th and were playing an Elimination Final do you honestly reckon Ross Lyon is gonna say "sorry Kosi, Gardiner, Kingy you'll need to sit this out cause Im giving Ben McEvoy some experience??"

Nup. Its a pipe dream.

We need to ADD as much YOUTHFUL quality to this list that we can - THE BEST way to do that under the current AFL system (in a season where after this year the draft will be enormously thin) is to get as low as pick as possible.

As I said had Geelong finished lower they miss out on a Sellwood.........If I had an opportunity tyo ensure I had a higher pick to get a player of that calibre to complement our core I would.

McEvoy in for Kosi in an elimination final... I must still be asleep

I'm not thinking of "blooding" new players in a final. I'm thinking of the guys we have running around who haven't played finals for St. Kilda. Armitage, McQualter, Jones haven't played finals at all (and if we were healthy, still might not, but asking for a healthy St Kilda list... not THAT is a pipe dream! ). King, Dempster, Schneider, the Gardiners all haven't played finals at St Kilda.

Even if they lose first up in an elimination final, I see value. Hypothetically, say the Saints had made the finals in 2003, and had lost an elimination final in the last quarter... do you think it might have helped the 2004 edition as the game was on the line late to have that experience, given that the expectation of them was they'd be back and their opponents was it was now or never? It might have made no difference, it might have made a lot, but I really don't think there's any subsitute for finals experience.

As for Geelong... I've said before, people need to stop holding them up as the great hope we'll turn it around. In all the time I've spent on many different sports, I've never seen a turnaround like theirs before. If any team in the league had it's best 8 or 9 players all suddenly hit AA form they'd be tough to beat, and those players would make the rest around them look better... and being the no brainer choice for best list, regardless of Selwood. If the Saints are going to turn it around, there's no point focusing on Geelong, or even the Hawks who are the only game we have left against the 3 dominant teams of '08 (thank goodness)... it starts with one win against the Kangaroos at Cararra.

[Saint05]

i have no faith we will win the majority on the run home

I believe we have the talent to do it.

suprise me st kilda make me believe again

My thoughts exactly!!!

We have the talent but do they believe in themselves...?

I hope we do, would be an excellent achievement if they could and pose a threat to other teams again

[iwantmeseats]

I want to believe again as well!!!!

Come on saints, fcuk!