top 4

[baf]

to finish top 4 where will our main strenghts come from and what 2nd teir players have to have an inpact

[TimeToShineFellas]

Assuming all teams improve 10% on last year, we would have to improve at least 18-20% on last year.

All players must have an impact - be it 1st or 3rd tier players - otherwise we will go backwards!

[casey scorp]

Our main improvement should come from the ruck. Getting first hand to the ball more regularly should lift the disposal rates from a considerable number of other players.

Naturally it is not just a game of numbers, but a lot has to do with the quality of the disposals.

But if we can increase our time in possession of the ball by just 2%, then that's 2% less that the opposition has it (or in dispute, from which they can't score).

[Solar]

agreed casey scorp but I also believe that the midfield goes hand in hand with this. The mids need to get fitter to get to more contests. There were larger periods of time last season where we were out numbered at the stoppages because the opposition ran hard and longer.

[mad saint guy]

The midfield is where games are won and lost. As long as you have a solid defence and forward line, the quality of your midfield is what determines how successful you will be.

If Hayes can get back to his form of early 2006 it will make us a noticeably better side. If Ball get just get somewhere near his 2005 form we will be very strong. Then the likes of Fiora, Schneider, X.Clarke and Birss need to provide strong support if we want to be able to compete with the top sides (too often we concede easy goals when our best mids are off). If Geary or Armitage could step up it would make a huge difference.

If Ball continues to get worse, Lenny keeps on struggling with his disposal and we continue to get no improvement from our second tier mids then I doubt 2008 will be any better than 2007, regardless of how many ruckmen and flankers we've recruited.

I don't see any significant amount of improvement coming from the ruck. King should be better than Rix and could be more useful around the ground than Clarke, but it is the star ruckmen that make a difference. Cox, McIntosh and Sandilands are the main modern rucks who could walk into a team and instantly make it far stronger. King might give us an extra 5 hitouts and 3 disposals than Clarke, which won't make a huge amount of difference. And we managed just fine in '04 and '05 with average ruckmen simply because our midfield was skilled, tough, fit and attacking.

[bigcarl]

the improvement must come across the board and that takes in gameplan, structure and self-belief.

the midfield needs to be better, i agree, but one area in which we were particularly poor last year was in actually putting a score on the board, by which i mean converting opportunities into goals.

we were the lowest scoring team in the entire competition in 2007

we were among the worst (14th i think) at converting inside 50s into goals, though we did improve as the year went on

i don't have the stats on this but my guess is that we were pretty poor in possessions-per-goal, too. our slow and indirect "chipalotto" movement of the ball in the first half of 2007 would have ensured that

we relied on too few up forward. geelong had five guys who kicked 30 or more for the season; we depended on gehrig, riewoldt and milne to kick us winning scores.

our reliance on riewoldt was, at times, alarming.

our guys look for him because he's a champion and always presents. but one would think that riewoldt has to kick it for it to count as a goal

the addition of kosi forward (hopefully full time) is a start towards breaking down this crippling dependence

like geelong last year we need multiple reliable avenues to goal

my hope is that swift, long and direct delivery to a forward line containing riewoldt, kosi and fraser along with a couple of good smalls like milne and schneider will break the logjam.

personally i'd also play a strong medium marking target (or someone who can play like one) like gilbert or bj alongside roo at half-forward just to make sure that a player streaming forward can see more than just riewoldt

some goals from the midfield and centreline would be handy, too. dal santo, in particular, should get an occasional run at half forward as he is developing a knack of kicking important goals

we have a solid defence and some very good on-ballers.

barring another disastrous run with injuries i can see no reason why we won't be premiership contenders in 2008.

we certainly have the forward firepower to trouble most defences and enough talent elsewhere to ensure a good supply

[esaint66]

it has to be won in the ruck that has been our downfall for many years and we have always had the quality midfielders so i cant wait to see how king and gardiner go

[saintsRrising]

The midfield is where games are won and lost. As long as you have a solid defence and forward line, the quality of your midfield is what determines how successful you will be.

.

According to those who have access to complete stats and analysis such as the new Dees coach the most important factor above all others that determines who wins games, is winning the stoppages.

Bailey talk at length on this...and I have heard other coaches including RL say similar, though albeit a lot more briefly.

While many stoppages occur in the midfield they do occur all over the ground....and do not always involve midfielders or only midfielders.

While you can win stoppages with poor rucks, it is a lot easier to win them with a capable ruck division.

[saintspremiers]

The midfield is where games are won and lost. As long as you have a solid defence and forward line, the quality of your midfield is what determines how successful you will be.

.

According to those who have access to complete stats and analysis such as the new Dees coach the most important factor above all others that determines who wins games, is winning the stoppages.

Bailey talk at length on this...and I have heard other coaches including RL say similar, though albeit a lot more briefly.

While many stoppages occur in the midfield they do occur all over the ground....and do not always involve midfielders or only midfielders.

While you can win stoppages with poor rucks, it is a lot easier to win them with a capable ruck division.

absolutely spot on, and it's really stating the obvious, because once you've won a stoppage, then you have possession.....having possession = a game of keepings off, until you eventually get into a scoring position.

[st.byron]

The midfield is where games are won and lost. As long ....... Cox, McIntosh and Sandilands are the main modern rucks who could walk into a team and instantly make it far stronger. King might give us an extra 5 hitouts and 3 disposals than Clarke, which won't make a huge amount of difference. And we managed just fine in '04 and '05 with average ruckmen simply because our midfield was skilled, tough, fit and attacking.

Agree with most of what you say MSG. Lyon quoted the stat that 40% of goals come from stoppages, so the mids are crucial in that. Added to that, we need more snap out of our small forwards. We need Milne and Schneider to hurt teams with goals and please god (whatever you consider him/her/it to be) can we have some more goals out of our mids.
Think you're being a bit harsh on King. Agree that his ability to be a sustained contributor is tempered by fitness concerns, but if fit, I expect him to provide heaps more value than Matthew Clarke, around the ground and at ruck contests.