Armitage, Allen & Pick9 - Our Future!

[rodgerfox]

I've been saying for a while (quite unpopularly) that we'll be a 1-2 year footy hiatus from 2008.

My reasoning is that I'm a firm believer that to win a flag, you need your list to comprise of the following....

small % of kids (ie. <50 games)
large % (core) of middle age (ie. >100 games)
small % of old coots (ie. veterans)

In 04 & 05 we had our 'core' somewhere between the top 2 categories, so in theory we weren't quite there. Our core of players were hovering around the 21-22yo mark.

That's too young generally for the core of a premiership team.

Anyway, that's history.


What I'm getting at is that now that our core is in the ideal range, we're lacking at the other ends. We've lost all our coots (bar Harves) and we don't have the kids in our best 22.

I believe this hiatus will have us being highly competitive, but perhaps lacking that hardened composure you get from your coots when the pressure is on, and that 'X Factor' you get from rookies bursting onto the scene.

Although in season 08, it may not be an issue as Geelong aside, not many other clubs appear to be ready to peak based on my prerequisites. But I digress.

If this year, Allen and Armitage make a spot in our 22 - or at least stake a serious claim to be firmly in our best 22 in 09, we'll have a very, very good balance.

We'll have some seriously good footballers with plenty of experience, n very important positions hitting the ideal age for a team's core.

We'll have guys like Lenny, Max and Bakes as our 'coots'.

And we'll have Armitage, Allen and pick 9 as our kids.


So, the future as I see it depends on the seasons of Armitage, Allen and pick 9.

No pressure guys!

[True Blue Sainter]

Good post and well thought out.

We really are lacking in quality kids that can make a difference. It would be nice to see Geary, Howard, Eddy & Van Rheenan also come on in the next couple of seasons - althought I'd settle just for two of them to become good, solid AFL players.

It is whispered that in this draft that the quality from about 20-60 is pretty even - so hopefully we can unearth a decent find at 42.

[saintsRrising]

Good post and well thought out.


It is whispered that in this draft that the quality from about 20-60 is pretty even

.

Yes....BUT it is also whispered that there is not much quality after pick 20....which is one reason why there was so much trading this year.

- so hopefully we can unearth a decent find at 42.

From the whipsers will be very lucky dip at this stage........yes in several years time some of the late picks will be very good players. But the odds of finding adiamond late this year seem to much higher...and the odds of getting a player that goes no where are much greater.

[RooandKosi]

what about Howard, van reehan and Geary??? I reckon these two might go well.

[Brian Collis]

I can't wait that long!

[barks4eva]

I've been saying for a while (quite unpopularly) that we'll be a 1-2 year footy hiatus from 2008.

My reasoning is that I'm a firm believer that to win a flag, you need your list to comprise of the following....

small % of kids (ie. <50 games)
large % (core) of middle age (ie. >100 games)
small % of old coots (ie. veterans)

In 04 & 05 we had our 'core' somewhere between the top 2 categories, so in theory we weren't quite there. Our core of players were hovering around the 21-22yo mark.

That's too young generally for the core of a premiership team.

Anyway, that's history.


What I'm getting at is that now that our core is in the ideal range, we're lacking at the other ends. We've lost all our coots (bar Harves) and we don't have the kids in our best 22.

I believe this hiatus will have us being highly competitive, but perhaps lacking that hardened composure you get from your coots when the pressure is on, and that 'X Factor' you get from rookies bursting onto the scene.

Although in season 08, it may not be an issue as Geelong aside, not many other clubs appear to be ready to peak based on my prerequisites. But I digress.

If this year, Allen and Armitage make a spot in our 22 - or at least stake a serious claim to be firmly in our best 22 in 09, we'll have a very, very good balance.

We'll have some seriously good footballers with plenty of experience, n very important positions hitting the ideal age for a team's core.

We'll have guys like Lenny, Max and Bakes as our 'coots'.

And we'll have Armitage, Allen and pick 9 as our kids.


So, the future as I see it depends on the seasons of Armitage, Allen and pick 9.

No pressure guys!

Totally agree

This is where the shambolic list development and recruiting from our ex-coach and his poorly, shortsighted run football department is now hurting us.

I also believe we will be highly competitive, make the finals, be challenging, but when push comes to shove we won't have the depth to get the job done in 2008

I also agree with you that one of the upsides is that aside from Geelong, all other teams are not going to have enough to get the job done either

It's a shame that there was not more vision which was supposedly about building for a decade of success from the previous football department, because it has cost us big time

We should be in a 50/50 contest with Geelong right now, but unfortunately due to poor recruiting this has put us quite a way behind

However if Geelong sustain lot's of injuries and we get blessed for a change, those guys you mentioned plus a couple of others take the next step, then anything is possible


Sydney and West Coast will slide a bit, Geelong are the team to beat

Finish ahead of Geelong and you win the premiership, it's as simple as that

[saintsRrising]

Ok...just sorting the players..


Firstly all the young players....


Name Games Age Date of Birth
Allen, Jarryd 0 19yr 8mth 14-Jan-88
Armitage, David 3 19yr 3mth 16-Jun-88
Eddy, Robert (R) 0 19yr 8mth 7-Jan-88
Geary, Jarryn (R) 0 19yr 3mth 23-Jun-88
Howard, Brad 2 19yr 9mth 21-Dec-87
Van Rheenen, Luke (R) 0 19yr 6mth 7-Mar-88
Pick 9 0 18
Pick 42 0 18
Pick 58 0 18
Rookie 0 ?
Rookie 0 ?
Rookie 0 ?

Just over 21

Attard, Jayden (R) 25 21yr 7mth 27-Feb-86
Gilbert, Sam 20 21yr 1mth 19-Aug-86
Gwilt, James 13 21yr 1mth 11-Aug-86
McQualter, Andrew 23 21yr 3mth 9-Jun-86


Then lets sort all players (not counting new picksnot yet here) by games"

Allen, Jarryd 0 19yr 8mth
Eddy, Robert (R) 0 19yr 8mth
Geary, Jarryn (R) 0 19yr 3mth
Van Rheenen, Luke (R) 0 19yr 6mth
Sweeney, Justin 1 19yr 9mth
Howard, Brad 2 19yr 9mth
Armitage, David 3 19yr 3mth
Jones, Clinton (R) 6 23yr 8mth
Ferguson, Matthew 10 23yr
Gwilt, James 13 21yr 1mth
Gilbert, Sam 20 21yr 1mth
McQualter, Andrew 23 21yr 3mth
Attard, Jayden (R) 25 21yr 7mth
Rix, Michael 28 26yr 8mth
Clarke, Raphael 30 22yr
Fisher, Leigh 46 23yr 5mth
Gram, Jason 52 23yr 5mth
Birss, Shane 63 24yr 6mth
Fisher, Sam 71 25yr 2mth
Montagna, Leigh 73 23yr 11mth
Goddard, Brendon 90 22yr 4mth
Maguire, Matthew 95 23yr 4mth
Clarke, Xavier 97 24yr
Koschitzke, Justin 97 25yr
Ball, Luke 104 23yr 4mth
Blake, Jason 113 26yr 6mth
Dal Santo, Nick 120 23yr 7mth
Gardiner, Michael S. 129 28yr 2mth
Fiora, Aaron 130 26yr 5mth
Riewoldt, Nick 134 24yr 11mth
Milne, Stephen 141 27yr 6mth
Baker, Steven 152 27yr 4mth
Hayes, Lenny 168 27yr 8mth
Hudghton, Max (V) 204 31yr 1mth
Harvey, Robert (V) 359 36yr 1mth


and then by age:


Allen, Jarryd 0 19yr 8mth
Armitage, David 3 19yr 3mth
Geary, Jarryn (R) 0 19yr 3mth
Van Rheenen, Luke (R) 0 19yr 6mth
Eddy, Robert (R) 0 19yr 8mth
Howard, Brad 2 19yr 9mth
Sweeney, Justin 1 19yr 9mth
Gilbert, Sam 20 21yr 1mth
Gwilt, James 13 21yr 1mth
McQualter, Andrew 23 21yr 3mth
Attard, Jayden (R) 25 21yr 7mth
Clarke, Raphael 30 22yr
Goddard, Brendon 90 22yr 4mth
Ferguson, Matthew 10 23yr
Montagna, Leigh 73 23yr 11mth
Ball, Luke 104 23yr 4mth
Maguire, Matthew 95 23yr 4mth
Fisher, Leigh 46 23yr 5mth
Gram, Jason 52 23yr 5mth
Dal Santo, Nick 120 23yr 7mth
Jones, Clinton (R) 6 23yr 8mth
Clarke, Xavier 97 24yr
Riewoldt, Nick 134 24yr 11mth
Birss, Shane 63 24yr 6mth
Koschitzke, Justin 97 25yr
Fisher, Sam 71 25yr 2mth
Fiora, Aaron 130 26yr 5mth
Blake, Jason 113 26yr 6mth
Rix, Michael 28 26yr 8mth
Baker, Steven 152 27yr 4mth
Milne, Stephen 141 27yr 6mth
Hayes, Lenny 168 27yr 8mth
Gardiner, Michael S. 129 28yr 2mth
Hudghton, Max (V) 204 31yr 1mth
Harvey, Robert (V) 359 36yr 1mth



Now I was lazy...and have not added Dempster, Schneider, King and Gardiner.



But from above there would seem to be a reasonably even spread of ages and games played...though there is a gap in twenty year olds.

There are a lot of players in their prime years of 22 to 28 though. So all in all from an age and experience profile perspective our look would seem to be in reasobale balance.

So I do not think age profile or experience profile is an issue...The task remains I think to get enough out of what we have...in term of ages and games played.


I would be more concerned about our position profile...ie the number of mids....half forwards...and being one key back short.

There area number of under-achievers on the list though that could fill these positions.....except maybea true FB to back up max.

[rodgerfox]

Totally agree

This is where the shambolic list development and recruiting from our ex-coach and his poorly, shortsighted run football department is now hurting us.

I also believe we will be highly competitive, make the finals, be challenging, but when push comes to shove we won't have the depth to get the job done in 2008

I don't fully agree.

We were capable in 06 - and ahead of schedule but still capable in 05. Injuries cost us. Nothing else.

We weren't last year - but still should have played finals.

This year, we will play finals but may not be balanced enough to be a real contender.

In 09 we will be, ditto 10.

So, previous recruiting really has set us up for an extended period of finals footy - with a sprinkling of seasons where we will a real contender.

Having a hiatus of competitiveness without being a real threat isn't that bad a thing. Infact, it is probably better than being a real challenger for 3 years then having to completely rebuild over the next 5.

[Solar]

Barks, its a little bit of what your saying, it's also bad management for earlier regimes too.

We barely have a player from the drafts of 98, 99, 2000,

Our development of the players from these drafts were shocking, We have max from the 96 draft, lenny from the 99? draft and thats about it. So yes we have lost a lot of experience without any 27+ year olds coming through. This was the Watson pain. We made up for it a little by trading for the likes of hamill and gehrig but do not have any of those players we traded for in 2000.

Yes some of the young players like brooks, mcqualter, watts, MCG, etc. have all not come on which has affected the other end of the scale.

agree with the OP, it's just something we have to keep developing

[True Blue Sainter]

Barks, its a little bit of what your saying, it's also bad management for earlier regimes too.

We barely have a player from the drafts of 98, 99, 2000,

Our development of the players from these drafts were shocking, We have max from the 96 draft, lenny from the 99? draft and thats about it. So yes we have lost a lot of experience without any 27+ year olds coming through. This was the Watson pain. We made up for it a little by trading for the likes of hamill and gehrig but do not have any of those players we traded for in 2000.

Yes some of the young players like brooks, mcqualter, watts, MCG, etc. have all not come on which has affected the other end of the scale.

agree with the OP, it's just something we have to keep developing

From 98 we have Lenny, Bakes and Blake don't we?

[Riewoldting]

Fit and firing, these will be our "100-gamers" for the 2008 finals series:

Mids
Hayes
Ball
Dal Santo
Fiora
Blake
Baker
X Clarke

Rucks
King
Gardiner

Forwards
Riewoldt
Koschitzke
Schneider
Milne
Harvey
Goddard

Defenders
Maguire
Hudghton

17 of 22 players with >100 games.

Gram, Chips and Joey won't have 100 games up, but they are polished performers anyway with finals experience.

Gilbert has shown terrific potential and should give a good account of himself in finals.

Armo really needs to get games under his belt during the home and away season if he is to play finals, at least 10.

Would love to see Allen compete for a spot in 2008. Is he being groomed as a potential FB?

Pick 9 is a raffle but I would love to see it go on a ready-to-play mid to go in the mix. Win the midfield and a young/short backline is less of an issue.

[Oh When the Saints]

In 2004 (I picked a random round) we had 9-10 blokes in the side aged 26 years or older.

From the list saintsRrising posted above, we will have 6-7 blokes in our best 22 aged 26 years or older.


We had more older players in 2004/05 than we do now ...

[Riewoldting]

Yep and we also have a blend of youth and experience.

That is:

1. some young, but inexperienced players (Gram, Fish, Chips, Raph, Gilbert)
2. some experienced, but older players (Banger, Max, Gardiner, King, Hayes, Fiora, Bakes, Milne)
3. and a whole shitload of experienced players who are still young! (Dal, Ball, Kosi, Roo, Schneider, Goddard, Goose, X Clarke, Joey).

The third group is the "core" that will win you a flag, but players in the other groups are vital. Can't see us winning a flag without Sam Fisher, Max Hudghton or Lenny Hayes.

[Barney2]

yeah, wait and see on young ones we have in Armitage and others. I agree, not much talent as last year and to get Schneider was magic. Saw utube footage of him and he can break up games which is what he did to us in the prelim in 05 kicking 3 goals. look out. Getting King was good too. Wait and see with him. Need a young ruckman though. That guy from the netherlands, not so sure but ruckman take years to develope. No one is really like cox or everitt. Maybe luinberger

[ausfatcat]

Yep and we also have a blend of youth and experience.

That is:

1. some young, but inexperienced players (Gram, Fish, Chips, Raph, Gilbert)
2. some experienced, but older players (Banger, Max, Gardiner, King, Hayes, Fiora, Bakes, Milne)
3. and a whole shitload of experienced players who are still young! (Dal, Ball, Kosi, Roo, Schneider, Goddard, Goose, X Clarke, Joey).

The third group is the "core" that will win you a flag, but players in the other groups are vital. Can't see us winning a flag without Sam Fisher, Max Hudghton or Lenny Hayes.

I wouldn't put Gram or S Fisher in that bracket

[Riewoldting]

Yep and we also have a blend of youth and experience.

That is:

1. some young, but inexperienced players (Gram, Fish, Chips, Raph, Gilbert)
2. some experienced, but older players (Banger, Max, Gardiner, King, Hayes, Fiora, Bakes, Milne)
3. and a whole shitload of experienced players who are still young! (Dal, Ball, Kosi, Roo, Schneider, Goddard, Goose, X Clarke, Joey).

The third group is the "core" that will win you a flag, but players in the other groups are vital. Can't see us winning a flag without Sam Fisher, Max Hudghton or Lenny Hayes.

I wouldn't put Gram or S Fisher in that bracket

Inexperienced meaning <100 games - refer earlier post

[saintsRrising]

There is a lot of thought and method in the team that Ross is building.

He cam in with a clear vision.....and he is piece by piece building it.

[rodgerfox]

We had more older players in 2004/05 than we do now ...

Yep, and we had exceptional youth. Although we lacked in the most important area - the core.

I never thought we'd be a threat until Ball, Dal, Goose, Kosi, Roo etc. were in that 'core' group of players (ie. 25-26yo with over 100 games under the belt).

2004 and 2005 were ahead of schedule, and due to a brilliantly well drilled team with a level of intensity not seen at Moorabbin in years.

What we lacked then, was the 'core' that all flag teams have had. What we appear to be lacking now is the bookends - the youth and the veterans. As I said earlier, if Allen, Armo and Pick 9 come in this year - we'll have the ideal balance in 2009.

[carn_sainter]

What we lacked then, was the 'core' that all flag teams have had. What we appear to be lacking now is the bookends - the youth and the veterans. As I said earlier, if Allen, Armo and Pick 9 come in this year - we'll have the ideal balance in 2009.

we lost the 2004 prelim final because riewoldt's birth certificate said a couple years too early?

these ideas about the right list composition are crazy...you don't need 24 yr old players you need good players...if they happen to be 24, then that's called a red herring...

i understand you need some young etc as far as having a list that will continue to improve but for one year in isolation, you're saying that allen is more important than say, birss, because he is younger...?

the most important one is whoever is better...you need 22 good players for success in one isolated year...whether they're all 20 or all 30 doesn't matter

paul williams was a much better player at 31 than he was at 21 or 24...

if i had 5 guys over 30 already, i'd still take paul williams at 31 over some 24 year old because the 24 year old is the 'right age'...


rodgerfox, didn't you have some big problem for months about people creating footy myths...? and now, here you are saying you need this exact proportion, like some chemical reaction, to win a flag?


i doubt rolss lyon sits around on a thursday night and says 'alright, player x is in better form than player y but hang on, if i leave out player y we'll only have 3 guys under 21 this week and you need 4...player y is in'

he selects the best players...age is irrelevant...it may be associated with improved ability, but it is not cause and effect and there are many things which determine ability...pick the best players, don't go concocting some doc. brown flux capacitator of a footy team

[rodgerfox]

What we lacked then, was the 'core' that all flag teams have had. What we appear to be lacking now is the bookends - the youth and the veterans. As I said earlier, if Allen, Armo and Pick 9 come in this year - we'll have the ideal balance in 2009.

we lost the 2004 prelim final because riewoldt's birth certificate said a couple years too early?

these ideas about the right list composition are crazy...you don't need 24 yr old players you need good players...if they happen to be 24, then that's called a red herring...

i understand you need some young etc as far as having a list that will continue to improve but for one year in isolation, you're saying that allen is more important than say, birss, because he is younger...?

the most important one is whoever is better...you need 22 good players for success in one isolated year...whether they're all 20 or all 30 doesn't matter

paul williams was a much better player at 31 than he was at 21 or 24...

if i had 5 guys over 30 already, i'd still take paul williams at 31 over some 24 year old because the 24 year old is the 'right age'...


rodgerfox, didn't you have some big problem for months about people creating footy myths...? and now, here you are saying you need this exact proportion, like some chemical reaction, to win a flag?


i doubt rolss lyon sits around on a thursday night and says 'alright, player x is in better form than player y but hang on, if i leave out player y we'll only have 3 guys under 21 this week and you need 4...player y is in'

he selects the best players...age is irrelevant...it may be associated with improved ability, but it is not cause and effect and there are many things which determine ability...pick the best players, don't go concocting some doc. brown flux capacitator of a footy team

A couple of things.....

When you build a list, you don't build it year by year. You outline where you're at, where you want to head, and roughly when you expect to arrive there.

Therefore, in your best 22 each week you select the best players. However, when recruiting you are looking at the balance of your list.

Ross Lyon does know this. Recruiting players with experience this year is no coincidence. It's also no coincidence that he did it last year too, knowing there would be a large void in the near future.
Holding onto pick 9 for a kid is no coincidence either. Had we benefited strongly from the draft over the past couple of years and had several quality kids ready to play on our list, we may well have been prepared to trade that pick.

Are you suggesting that if you have twenty two 31yo's in your team, that's Ok? That if another one was available that was better than your draft selection, you'd trade for them?

Are you saying that if you have twenty two 18yo's in your team, that you'd hold onto your draft picks and not look to trade for harder and experienced players?


As for my theory, it isn't neccessarily based on planning to have the correct age/experience balance of your team, it's based on the fact that every single premiership team ever (bar Essendon in 93) has had this mix.

Brisbane were average until their list developed the balance I talk about.

Sydney were.

West Coast were too.

Geelong ditto.

And so on, and so on.


If you've played footy, you'd know that when you're surrounded by kids you struggle.

When you're surrounded by geezers, you struggle.

When you're surrounded by players at their peak, with a sprinkle of experience and youthful exuberance, you generally fair well.

[rodgerfox]

rodgerfox, didn't you have some big problem for months about people creating footy myths...? and now, here you are saying you need this exact proportion, like some chemical reaction, to win a flag?

By the way, I never used an exact proportion. For the very reason - it isn't an exact science.

[saintspremiers]

I think this post, whilst interesting, misses the mark a bit....

It's not so much about the age demographics of your best 22/26 etc, but more the type of players they are, how adaptable they are, how fast they can run, their endurance etc. that is more important.

Give me a side full of geriatrics or a side full of teens and early 20's, whatever, but it's the talent that's in the mix that counts.

Look at how the Swans topped up and won a flag in 2005.....sure, it may not give you a decent crack at 3 flags in say 5 years, but at the moment just one flag then a few wooden spoons is fine by me. Sick of waiting for this "sustained success" claptrap!!

[rodgerfox]

Look at how the Swans topped up and won a flag in 2005.....sure, it may not give you a decent crack at 3 flags in say 5 years, but at the moment just one flag then a few wooden spoons is fine by me. Sick of waiting for this "sustained success" claptrap!!

Exactly.

Look at Sydney.

They weren't a threat until their core developed. Until their core was made up of hard bodied, experienced players.

At the same time Paul Williams and Jason Ball were playing their last years of football.

They also had a small % of <50 gamers.


Until their list hit this mix, they weren't a threat. Neither were Geelong.

[rodgerfox]

It's not so much about the age demographics of your best 22/26 etc, but more the type of players they are, how adaptable they are, how fast they can run, their endurance etc. that is more important.

Give me a side full of geriatrics or a side full of teens and early 20's, whatever, but it's the talent that's in the mix that counts.

This is an interesting point.

When a game is in the balance, 15 minutes to go in the last quarter, it's a final.

Who do you want in the contest? James Hird, or Joel Selwood?

Selwood is faster, fitter and has two strong legs. Hird is slower and probably completely knackered.

Does that matter in this instance? No. I'd want Hird out there.

Fitness, speed, endurance etc. isn't always what you want, all of the time. You need experience. You need seasoned campaigners.

But, if you have too many of them you lose balance.

It was Frankie Peckett and Harves who got us over the line in the 05 QF final.

Not our guys who are faster and can kick further. Footy is far more than beep tests.

Again, I'm looking at the teams that have actually won flags - and all of their age/experience ratios are very similar.

So to use your example of taking a side full of geriatrics - history says you wouldn't get far weith them. It also says you wouldn't get far with a team of just early 20s either.

[Dis Believer]

I don't doubt the validity of what you're sayinig Rodge, but I think it has better application in applying to straight out list quality and management rather than as a key indicator of ability to snag a premiership. The age breakdown of a list should remain constant if at all possible - as players go out at one end due to aging or a platea/decline in performance, there are youngsters being fed in at the other end through trading/drafting. The mix of ability lost versus ability gained in this process is the variable. If you draft well, and the majority of your selections prove to be good choices who stay healthy, then your list make up by age (as a snapshot) should not vary. When you have a particularly deep draft, thin draft, players retiring early due to injury, etc, it creates peaks and troughs in your age demographic, particularly if you cease drafting yongsters and start trading heavily for older players.
If a group of reasonable players all stay healthy and peak in form in a given year, they are a chance to win a flag. But try going back to the well repeatedly if the age mix isn't right.