Inequities in the AFL Draw - what can we hope for in 2008 ?

[Enrico_Misso]

My pet topic.
And my pet hate is Blockbusters - cosy arrangements whereby certain clubs (read Collingwood with Ess/Carl and local derbies) ALWAYS play each other twice.
This violates every principle of "fairness" and "level playing field" and makes an international mockery of the AFL.
Hand in hand with that is the same games played on the same days eg Anzac/QBirth/Easter etc, - again violates fairness.

The draw needs to be either
- TOTALLY random so all clubs are treated equally (but the vagaries of chance could result in tough/easy draws for some), or
- TOTALLY fair so all clubs play each other the same number of times over a period of time eg about 6 times each over 4 years, = twice home and twice away.


But to return to reality.

Some of the "discrepancies" in our draw in recent years that I will be interested in monitoring in the 2008 draw ....

Home and Away imbalances
- we have played Freo 19 times with 12 away and 7 home games, so we shouldn't get a "Voices in the sky" match in 08 !
- similarly since 1993 we have played Coll, Geel and Melb 3 more times away than at home

Venue imbalances
Bear in mind that in theory we should play each side 1.47 times per season (=22 rounds/15 other teams) or 0.73 times at Home and 0.73 times Away
So how does the AFL explain these imbalances ?.....
- in the last 5 years we have made 9 out of a possible 10 trips to Perth
- in fact we have played an away game against Freo in EACH of the last 12 years (only missed in 1995) compared to 12 x 0.73 = 8.8 expected trips
- in the last 11 years we have made 10 trips to Brisbane
- till last year we had a run of 13 years with an away game against Geelong
- we have had an away game against Melb in 11 of the last 12 years
- we have had an away game against the Bulldogs in each of the last 9 years
- over the last 5 years we have played Geelong and Freo about 2 times more and Richmond 3 times more than what you would expect, so in 2008 we should not play these three sides twice ?


Also
- Night matches
Last year we played 15 night matches including our all time high of 7 on Fri nights.
Apart from 2000 when we had 14 night matches our next highest was 11 in 2006.
Will be interesting to see if after missing the finals the AFL still regard us as a Friday night club or we will be banished back to daylight.
- Sundays
Last year we only played on Sunday 3 times, our lowest since 3 Sunday games in 1994.
Recent years we have averaged about 7, till you go back to 2002 when we had our all time high of 14 Sunday games.
So I suspect we will see less Fri nights and more Sunday arvos.

Over to you Dimwit ...

[OneEyedSainter77]

There are so many things about the draw that bug me, but next year I don't care about any of it because I want a challenging fixture so we don't get babied into a finals berth - I want to wrok hard for results.

Does anybody else here think we may be scheduled to play at skilled stadium. Haven't played there for a few years. I reckon we're due.

[carn_sainter]

Even if the draw was made random it would still be unfair

fact is, you can't avoid the unevenness of the fixture

given that, i don't really have a problem with it being manipulated in order to attempt to get more money in for the game

we had a great run in 2007 with the draw and shouldn't complain

- TOTALLY fair so all clubs play each other the same number of times over a period of time eg about 6 times each over 4 years, = twice home and twice away.

and how is this fair? teams don't improve/worsen over 4 years?

[plugger66]

Even if the draw was made random it would still be unfair

fact is, you can't avoid the unevenness of the fixture

given that, i don't really have a problem with it being manipulated in order to attempt to get more money in for the game

we had a great run in 2007 with the draw and shouldn't complain

- TOTALLY fair so all clubs play each other the same number of times over a period of time eg about 6 times each over 4 years, = twice home and twice away.

and how is this fair? teams don't improve/worsen over 4 years?

That is exactly right. Is this another topic where the Saints get picked on. Yes Collingwood get the best draw as far as travelling that is true but the do not get the best draw on who the play if the Blues, Bombers and Tigers have good seasons because they always play them twice. Lets forget about the draw on concentrate on other things we can control. By the way I bet we sent a request to play the Pies twice.

[Life Long Saint]

There are two obvious strategies that the AFL could employ to even up the FIXture.

- The first is to leave the current 22 rounds and split the 16 teams into two groups of eight. These must remain for a long time. Each team plays the seven other teams in it's pool twice and the eight teams in the other pool once. This gives 22 games. It follows the American "conference" style they use in Baseball, NFL and NBL.

- The second is to increase the rounds to 30. This allows all teams to play each other twice but would increase the workload on players. The AFLPA would have kittens over this and grounds like the MCG, SCG and Gabba would not be available until cricket finished. Which is a joke as these venues struggle to get a couple of thousand people to a shield match compared to tens of thousands to an AFL match. I would see the AFLPA imposing a rule that states a player could not play more than 22 H&A matches out of the 30.

Until the AFL adopt one of these approaches (or come up with a new one) we will continue to have a FIXture.

[plugger66]

There are two obvious strategies that the AFL could employ to even up the FIXture.

- The first is to leave the current 22 rounds and split the 16 teams into two groups of eight. These must remain for a long time. Each team plays the seven other teams in it's pool twice and the eight teams in the other pool once. This gives 22 games. It follows the American "conference" style they use in Baseball, NFL and NBL.

- The second is to increase the rounds to 30. This allows all teams to play each other twice but would increase the workload on players. The AFLPA would have kittens over this and grounds like the MCG, SCG and Gabba would not be available until cricket finished. Which is a joke as these venues struggle to get a couple of thousand people to a shield match compared to tens of thousands to an AFL match. I would see the AFLPA imposing a rule that states a player could not play more than 22 H&A matches out of the 30.

Until the AFL adopt one of these approaches (or come up with a new one) we will continue to have a FIXture.

The first option still doesnt give you an even draw as one group of 8 over time could become weaker and it just wouldnt work because lets face it the 2 Adelaide sides need to play each other twice as do the Perth sides. Yes they could be in the same group as each other but if we were in the Perth group the travel there is much worse that the travel to Adelaide.

The second option is the only true way to do it but you cannot blame the players for not wanting the season to be extended by 8 weeks and even if you got rid of the pre season you still need practice games so the season would still be extended by at least 6 weeks which makes it imossible for both the players and ground availablility.

[noreason41]

As long as theirs 22 games and 16 teams, the draw will always be unfair. The most logical, and reasonable thing to do: Have 30 games a year, in which every team plays every other team twice.

But we're stuck with just 22 games in a year, which will always make unevenness and unfairness in the fixture for some teams, where as some will have an easy road to the finals.

[saint66au]

Well the 22 rounds is a given for the forseeable future I reckon..so the AFL could try and even things out given this restriction..BUT THEY DONT!!!!!

Can someone please give me a genuine reason why (and "Marketing" or "maximising attendances" are NOT reasons)..

* There HAS to be 2 Derbies and 2 Showdowns?

* Collingwood/Carlton/Ess HAVE to play each other twice?

* Collingwood and Essendon HAVE to monopolise Anzac Day?

* Collingwood and Melbourne HAVE to monopolise Queens Birthday?

* Every request by a Victorian Club to have a home game against Collingwood seems to be automatically granted, thereby giving them an obscenely unfair amount of games in Melbourne?

Given that we are one of the clubs that has no "locked-in" priorities (weve lost Easter Thursday by the looks of it) we will always be at the mercy of "whats good for Coll and Ess".

The best we can hope for is, like 2007, having 11 home games at Telstra Dome.

[Ghost Like]

Also my pet hate and I've posted this on another thread...

I see no reason why the draw is not governed by how the teams finished from the previous season.

Top 8 play each other twice and the Bottom 8 once

Bottom 8 play each other twice and the Top 8 once

Just alternate Home games, this should not be too hard and certainly offers a degree of transparency that this organisation desperately needs in the wake of their Drugs Policy and the farce that has become the Priority Pick.

[riccardo]

My pet hate is with playing certain interstate teams in Melbourne ie Freo and Port.

Freo has been mentioned, but it has been 7 years since Port visited the Dome to play St Kilda - this is grossly unfair.

Of course, it looks even in "home" and "away" terms because we were always alloted Port in Tasmania, despite (I understand) our asking on several occasions to play Port at home.

We MUST MUST MUST rectify this injustice.

[Enrico_Misso]

Even if the draw was made random it would still be unfair

fact is, you can't avoid the unevenness of the fixture

given that, i don't really have a problem with it being manipulated in order to attempt to get more money in for the game

we had a great run in 2007 with the draw and shouldn't complain

- TOTALLY fair so all clubs play each other the same number of times over a period of time eg about 6 times each over 4 years, = twice home and twice away.

and how is this fair? teams don't improve/worsen over 4 years?

I don't follow this logic.
Agree that a totally random draw will still lead to some teams getting better draws than others.
But at least it won't be the same old teams like Collingwood getting favourable draws every year in perpetuity because the AFL seeks to maximise crowds and that is "good for the game", or more important than having a "fair" draw.
The extension of this logic is to guarantee Collingwood a finals berth every year to maximise finals crowd - oh sorry they effectively already do that !

No "organised" system (other than a 15 or a 30 round H&A season) can produce a totally fair draw.
Seeding teams based on last years results doesn't work as there is so much volatility in team performances.

I can tolerate getting a bad draw one year if it is just the "fickled finger of fate".
But I CANNOT tolerate getting a bad draw because our name isn't Collingwood.

[Spinner]

My pet hate is with playing certain interstate teams in Melbourne ie Freo and Port.

Freo has been mentioned, but it has been 7 years since Port visited the Dome to play St Kilda - this is grossly unfair.

Of course, it looks even in "home" and "away" terms because we were always alloted Port in Tasmania, despite (I understand) our asking on several occasions to play Port at home.

We MUST MUST MUST rectify this injustice.

How is this unfair. We organised to play 2 matches in Tasmania in those years. The teams with the lowest drawing capacity in Melb ie Port and Freo were played in Tassie.

How is this 'grossly unfair". We organised the Tasmania deal, not the AFL.

Would you have suggested we play against Melbourne-based teams in Tasmania to fill the 10,000 capacity stadium?

[plugger66]

My pet hate is with playing certain interstate teams in Melbourne ie Freo and Port.

Freo has been mentioned, but it has been 7 years since Port visited the Dome to play St Kilda - this is grossly unfair.

Of course, it looks even in "home" and "away" terms because we were always alloted Port in Tasmania, despite (I understand) our asking on several occasions to play Port at home.

We MUST MUST MUST rectify this injustice.

How is this unfair. We organised to play 2 matches in Tasmania in those years. The teams with the lowest drawing capacity in Melb ie Port and Freo were played in Tassie.

How is this 'grossly unfair". We organised the Tasmania deal, not the AFL.

Would you have suggested we play against Melbourne-based teams in Tasmania to fill the 10,000 capacity stadium?

Correct but some times those rose coloured glasses get in the way of clear thinking.

[Megamaguire]

About time the Saints got some scheduling reprieve from those rotten trips west. We should have home games against Collingwood and Hawthorn at the 'G'

The Friday night games at the Dome were good in 2007 - i think the AFL will still pencil the Saints in for a good percentage of those and probably Geelong and Collingwood too.

G O S A I N T S !

[Ghost Like]

Seeding teams based on last years results doesn't work as there is so much volatility in team performances.

Cannot understand your logic there Enrico when you are calling for either A) a totally random draw or B) playing each other twice over a period of time (4 years)

I would have thought the volatility of a team's performance would have an even greater and less understandable impact in either of those scenarios. With A) you explain to members or clubs that it is just bad luck and with B) the benefits or ills are determined at which stage a club is at, for example Hawthorn and Carlton, great if you played them twice last year or two years ago not so great if you play them in two years time.

At least with a draw based on the previous year's result, we have a fair idea what we are in for and for a team like Hawthorn, they are quite rightly seeded in the top for the coming season. This is where the transparency issues can be solved and questions about why we play so and so here or there is easily explained and easily followed by the average punter and the not so average.

[riccardo]

My pet hate is with playing certain interstate teams in Melbourne ie Freo and Port.

Freo has been mentioned, but it has been 7 years since Port visited the Dome to play St Kilda - this is grossly unfair.

Of course, it looks even in "home" and "away" terms because we were always alloted Port in Tasmania, despite (I understand) our asking on several occasions to play Port at home.

We MUST MUST MUST rectify this injustice.

How is this unfair. We organised to play 2 matches in Tasmania in those years. The teams with the lowest drawing capacity in Melb ie Port and Freo were played in Tassie.

How is this 'grossly unfair". We organised the Tasmania deal, not the AFL.

Would you have suggested we play against Melbourne-based teams in Tasmania to fill the 10,000 capacity stadium?

7 years since we played Port in a true home game.

How is that NOT unfair? Agreed, we organised the deal, but I understand we specifically asked not to play Port there the last 2 years and were refused.

As for playing Melbourne based teams to fill a 19,000 capacity ground (not 10,000) Hawthorn didn't think it was so crazy. North fail to draw well in Melbourne, as do Carlton at times, so why not them?

Its a moot point now, but as we played Port in Adelaide this past year, I expect to face them here in 2008.

[Ghost Like]

7 years since we played POrt in a true home game.

How is that NOT unfair?

It's like taking a job driving a truck in Iraq and earning a quarter of a million and then complaining about the dangers and working conditions. We chose our fate, chose to play in Tassie for the dollars and got everything we asked for.

I do not think we can call it unfair if we got what we asked for.

[HarveysDeciple]

My pet hate is with playing certain interstate teams in Melbourne ie Freo and Port.

Freo has been mentioned, but it has been 7 years since Port visited the Dome to play St Kilda - this is grossly unfair.

Of course, it looks even in "home" and "away" terms because we were always alloted Port in Tasmania, despite (I understand) our asking on several occasions to play Port at home.

We MUST MUST MUST rectify this injustice.

How is this unfair. We organised to play 2 matches in Tasmania in those years. The teams with the lowest drawing capacity in Melb ie Port and Freo were played in Tassie.

How is this 'grossly unfair". We organised the Tasmania deal, not the AFL.

Would you have suggested we play against Melbourne-based teams in Tasmania to fill the 10,000 capacity stadium?

my only issue was that hawthorn always seemed to play the adelaide crows and westcoast down there.
I had the belief that it should have been rotated.
We play port and freo one year, we play adelaide and westcoast the next...

but in saying all that its irrelevant because we simply played badly down there and it was our fault.
We should have won anyway.