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We will have 11 wins, and barring a disaster against Richmond, are certain of making the 8 - no-one can knock us out.
If we lose next week
We must rely on Adelaide, Brisbane and Essendon losing one of their remaining two matches each:
Brisbane and Adelaide play each other next week, which is good for us. One of those two sides will be out of the finals race come this time next week
The side that wins out of the Crows/Lions will need to lose the following week if we are to make the 8 (based on current percentages):
----- Lions play Cats at the GABBA (pretty safe to say Geelong will win)
----- Crows play Collingwood at the MCG (50/50 ... could be dangerous)
So if Adelaide win their next two, and we lose to the Eagles, then they would finish 8th and we would miss the finals by 2 points and %
Essendon have Richmond next week and are likely to win, but face the Eagles at Subiaco in Round 22. Barring a massive upset, the Bombers won't have an impact
The Western Bulldogs can only have an impact if they make up the 5% they trail us by, win both of their next two matches, rely on us losing a game, and rely on Adelaide and Brisbane both losing one match.
If we lose the next two games
We can't, and don't deserve to make the finals.
They should only play AFL games now when it's raining. Slow games of footy are so much better to watch.
So we need to barrack for Geelong and Collingwood over the next two weeks ... if those sides go 2-0 (which they are favoured to), and as long as we beat Richmond, then we are in.
Last edited by Oh When the Saints on Sun 19 Aug 2007 10:14pm, edited 1 time in total.
They should only play AFL games now when it's raining. Slow games of footy are so much better to watch.
some REALLY interesting games coming up. I did a ladder where sydney finished 9th, there are 4 melbourne finals.
Round 21
TD* St K over wce 6 pts
TD Kang over carl 18 pts
Sub Frem over Melb 6 pts
MCG* Coll over Syd 6 pts
AAMI* Bris over Adel 6 pts
TD Haw over WB 18 pts
SS Geel over Port 30 pts
MCG Ess over Rich 18 pts
Round 22
TD* Coll over Adel 18 pts
MCG St K over rich 30 pts
Sub WC over Ess 18 pts
Gabba* Bris over Geel 6 pts
AAMI* Port over Frem 30 pts
SCG Haw over syd 6 pts
TD Kang over WB 30 pts
MCG Melb Carl 6 pts
If thats the case then browns goal with 5 seconds left sat night might have won them 8th spot. collingwood could easily end up either out or 8th if they loose their next two games. Hawks v sydney last game will be a beauty, hawks could be playing for a home qualifying final and a shot at the flag while sydney might be playing for their lives!
Lot of those games could go either way.
FQF
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Oh When the Saints wrote:
[*] So if Adelaide win their next two, and we lose to the Eagles, then they would finish 8th and we would miss the finals by 2 points and %
9th?
Gehrig emerged from scans yesterday saying he was "as sweet as a bun"
Brisbane and Adelaide play each other next week, which is good for us. One of those two sides will be out of the finals race come this time next week
Or you could argue it is bad...as it guarantees that at least one will still be in the race...
Lets hope that the Lions knock off the Crows......as I would imagine Crows will bea big chance to knock off the Pies as the Pies form of late has been rocky.
Flying the World in comfort thanks to FF Points....
We can still afford to lose another game and still make it, but we ultimately need to win our next two to also gain some momentum coming into the finals.
Trust the Midas Touch
"My heart is at St.Kilda, I've been here seven years, I only wanted to play for them." (Fraser Gehrig, 27/11/2007)
Oh When the Saints wrote:So we need to barrack for Eagles over the next two weeks
Barrack for the Eagles all you want next week if you like, I know who I'll be barracking for!
Just in addition to the OP (which was a good read), I reckon our best case scenario (assuming we finish 8th), would be to cop a Victorian team finishing 5th.
Hawthorn, the Kangaroos and Collingwood present more than great chances for us to progress to the second week of Finals.
Would rather cop one of them than an away assignment to Port or Sydney (assuming West Coast finish Top 4)
Oh When the Saints wrote:So we need to barrack for Eagles over the next two weeks
Barrack for the Eagles all you want next week if you like, I know who I'll be barracking for!
Just in addition to the OP (which was a good read), I reckon our best case scenario (assuming we finish 8th), would be to cop a Victorian team finishing 5th.
Hawthorn, the Kangaroos and Collingwood present more than great chances for us to progress to the second week of Finals.
Would rather cop one of them than an away assignment to Port or Sydney (assuming West Coast finish Top 4)
yep, that's what I've been thinking.....and if we win in the first week there is a chance of a semi in Melbourne the following week also given all the Melbourne teams in the 8 this year.
There is a reasonable chance we could make the Prelims, but that would be as far as you could push the friendship methinks....
i am Melbourne Skies - sometimes Blue Skies, Grey Skies, even Partly Cloudy Skies.