Stats Confidential: 4th Qtr Fade-Outs - Herald-Sun Article
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Stats Confidential: 4th Qtr Fade-Outs - Herald-Sun Article
Source: http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/ ... 72,00.html
Stats Confidential with Mark Stevens
5 August 2007 Herald Sun
Mark Stevens
STATS CONFIDENTIAL: Why are the Saints no good things when they have a comfortable lead at three-quarter time, Mark Stevens asks.
Coach Ross Lyon might be the key to that mystery.
There is safety in numbers.
That's what Fremantle coach Mark Harvey will be telling his players if they are within four goals of St Kilda at the last change at Telstra Dome on Saturday.
Harvey no doubt will have one simple set of numbers with him in the huddle: the Saints have a 0-6 record in last quarters since Round 14.
St Kilda has kicked just 10.15 after three-quarter time, while its opponents have piled on 24.17.
The difference is 86 points, an average of 14.3 points a game.
St Kilda has been outscored by 13 (Sydney), 17 (Bulldogs) and 25 (Carlton) in the past three weeks.
The most glaring fadeout was in Round 14 against Collingwood. The Saints kicked the first goal of the final term before allowing the Magpies to kick the last 4.6 of the game.
The Saints have won three and drawn one of their past six, and lost the final term by only three points in a brave Round 15 win against Adelaide.
The numbers are cause for further investigation.
Wayne Schwass was at Sydney when Paul Roos took over as caretaker coach in 2002.
The former Swans and Kangaroos star, now a respected commentator, said the Saints' fadeouts were linked to Ross Lyon's game plan.
Lyon's blueprint, similar to his Swans mate Paul Roos, is demanding physically and mentally.
And Schwass was adamant it would take time for the Saints to adjust.
"It is the toughest game (style) to play or play against," Schwass said.
"It just takes a lot out of players.
"When you're tired, it comes down to physical and, more importantly, mental strength.
"You have to look at the possibility that maybe they (the Saints) are putting so much effort into the first three quarters that they are spent by the last.
"If you are playing St Kilda and within striking distance, you'd think you were a good chance to run over the top."
Schwass said the Swans had been adjusting to Roos' game plan, involving closing down space, tackling and ruling the clearances, for five years.
It is difficult to kick goals when your forwards aren't winning the footy and that is perhaps the biggest worry for the Saints.
They are averaging only 6.8 forward disposals in final quarters since Round 14.
Competition leader Geelong averages 16.5 forward-50 disposals in the same period.
And the Saints average just 1.7 goals in their past six final terms.
Defender Sam Fisher is their standout final-quarter player in that time, winning 43 disposals and taking 23 marks.
Lenny Hayes has had 42 touches and Nick Dal Santo 34, while Nick Riewoldt has had 19 disposals and taken 15 marks.
And with the supply into the forward line light on, Fraser Gehrig and Steven Milne have struggled for opportunities.
Gehrig has had nine final-term disposals and Milne six.
Stats Confidential with Mark Stevens
5 August 2007 Herald Sun
Mark Stevens
STATS CONFIDENTIAL: Why are the Saints no good things when they have a comfortable lead at three-quarter time, Mark Stevens asks.
Coach Ross Lyon might be the key to that mystery.
There is safety in numbers.
That's what Fremantle coach Mark Harvey will be telling his players if they are within four goals of St Kilda at the last change at Telstra Dome on Saturday.
Harvey no doubt will have one simple set of numbers with him in the huddle: the Saints have a 0-6 record in last quarters since Round 14.
St Kilda has kicked just 10.15 after three-quarter time, while its opponents have piled on 24.17.
The difference is 86 points, an average of 14.3 points a game.
St Kilda has been outscored by 13 (Sydney), 17 (Bulldogs) and 25 (Carlton) in the past three weeks.
The most glaring fadeout was in Round 14 against Collingwood. The Saints kicked the first goal of the final term before allowing the Magpies to kick the last 4.6 of the game.
The Saints have won three and drawn one of their past six, and lost the final term by only three points in a brave Round 15 win against Adelaide.
The numbers are cause for further investigation.
Wayne Schwass was at Sydney when Paul Roos took over as caretaker coach in 2002.
The former Swans and Kangaroos star, now a respected commentator, said the Saints' fadeouts were linked to Ross Lyon's game plan.
Lyon's blueprint, similar to his Swans mate Paul Roos, is demanding physically and mentally.
And Schwass was adamant it would take time for the Saints to adjust.
"It is the toughest game (style) to play or play against," Schwass said.
"It just takes a lot out of players.
"When you're tired, it comes down to physical and, more importantly, mental strength.
"You have to look at the possibility that maybe they (the Saints) are putting so much effort into the first three quarters that they are spent by the last.
"If you are playing St Kilda and within striking distance, you'd think you were a good chance to run over the top."
Schwass said the Swans had been adjusting to Roos' game plan, involving closing down space, tackling and ruling the clearances, for five years.
It is difficult to kick goals when your forwards aren't winning the footy and that is perhaps the biggest worry for the Saints.
They are averaging only 6.8 forward disposals in final quarters since Round 14.
Competition leader Geelong averages 16.5 forward-50 disposals in the same period.
And the Saints average just 1.7 goals in their past six final terms.
Defender Sam Fisher is their standout final-quarter player in that time, winning 43 disposals and taking 23 marks.
Lenny Hayes has had 42 touches and Nick Dal Santo 34, while Nick Riewoldt has had 19 disposals and taken 15 marks.
And with the supply into the forward line light on, Fraser Gehrig and Steven Milne have struggled for opportunities.
Gehrig has had nine final-term disposals and Milne six.
- Oh When the Saints
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Interesting comments by Schwass about the physical demands of the gameplan.
That is why our players need a massive pre-season at the end of this year.
I think Lyon has recognised this problem though, and has been using Fiora on the ground for the whole of last quarters ... Fiora is fresher for not playing early parts of the game, and can provide important run when needed.
That is why our players need a massive pre-season at the end of this year.
I think Lyon has recognised this problem though, and has been using Fiora on the ground for the whole of last quarters ... Fiora is fresher for not playing early parts of the game, and can provide important run when needed.
They should only play AFL games now when it's raining. Slow games of footy are so much better to watch.
- saintsRrising
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Oh When the Saints wrote:
That is why our players need a massive pre-season at the end of this year.
.
and notable that many of the players, and key players at that, did not really have a proper pre-season for 2007.
Contrast with say the Cats who tanked last year and maximised their pre-season....
However fitness, including match fitness, would not be the only reason for the fad-outs.
Flying the World in comfort thanks to FF Points....
- meher baba
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What's Wayne Schwass raving on about? Lyon has already said on numerous occasions that his game plan is not a carbon-copy of that of the Swans.
What's he doing basing his comments on the evidence of how we actually play? Can't he take a gentleman at his word?
What's he doing basing his comments on the evidence of how we actually play? Can't he take a gentleman at his word?
"It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into."
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Who says the only type of accountable football in the world is the Swans?meher baba wrote:What's Wayne Schwass raving on about? Lyon has already said on numerous occasions that his game plan is not a carbon-copy of that of the Swans.
What's he doing basing his comments on the evidence of how we actually play? Can't he take a gentleman at his word?
Besides.....many artists have covered Dylan songs.......doesnt mean they are Bob Dylan.....
“Yeah….nah””
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The eagles have used Rainy Day Women #12 & 35 as their unofficial theme for years now, and it hasn't harmed their form.mbogo wrote:For the record Jimi Hendrix copied Bob Dylan and his singing and even poetic writing style. The effect was very different.
*Allegedly.
Bring back Lucky Burgers, and nobody gets hurt.
You can't un-fry things.
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Bring back Lucky Burgers, and nobody gets hurt.
You can't un-fry things.
Last Post
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There are times when Ross does appear LSD influenced....mbogo wrote:I have been a fan of what Lyon is trying to do - but we *really* need some Hendrix from him over the next 7 weeks
However I have no doubt come finals time he'll release his inner Voodoo child........starting this week against that pathetic purple haze mob.......
“Yeah….nah””