King unbalances the team?

[Vortex]

King will play forward next year

Guaranteed

And a ittle bit in the ruck

[MC Gusto]

King would have enjoyed the way the ball was coming into the forward 50 in the second half of the season. Players lowering their eyes and great spread across the ground. Shame he was injured

[Scollop]

Anyone can do the role of a lead up forward. The value for a KP Forward is when you can take contested marks or if you're a gun athlete like Jeremy Cameron that kicks like a mule and is deadly from any angle on the ground

[The_Dud]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

[St Dave]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

We aren't hanging off potential though. He kicked 52 goals in 2022 (avg 2.36 in his third year) was on track for 56 last year (avg 2.55 per game, for comparison Jessie Hogan averaged 3 per game this year) despite injuries and he was only really poor this year where he was even more impacted by injuries and still averaged 1.56 goals per game (vs our leading goal kicker Higgins who averaged 1.8 per game).

[samoht]

It's never that clearcut.

Let's say Jessie Hogan"s 3 goal average came from 6 passes on average directed to him (while he was inside the f50), while Max King's 2.5 goal average came from 7.5 passes on average directed to him.
This would show straight away which player has the greater impact ... it would obviously be Hogan by a fair margin, in this case.

There should be a stat to show how much you're focussing your inside deliveries to a particular player, and whether you're overdoing it - when you aren't getting the desired bang for buck from them (as measured by goal per inside 50 delivery to them)..

This way, you can gauge the conversion rate and bang for buck from each of your forwards, and you can compare them with their counterparts ... I.e., compare the effectiveness of your FF with another team's FF, etc...

All I know is our conversion rate in terms of scoring per F50 entry has improved as a team ... and it coincides with King missing. We're getting more bang from our (F50) entry buck for whatever reason.
It's worth scientifically investigating and determining the reason.

[The_Dud]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

We aren't hanging off potential though. He kicked 52 goals in 2022 (avg 2.36 in his third year) was on track for 56 last year (avg 2.55 per game, for comparison Jessie Hogan averaged 3 per game this year) despite injuries and he was only really poor this year where he was even more impacted by injuries and still averaged 1.56 goals per game (vs our leading goal kicker Higgins who averaged 1.8 per game).

Yeah but we didn't draft him hoping for a B+ forward like Hogan, we were sold 'Winx'! A generational talent who will become the number one forward in the game, give him number 12!

Right now he would still hold that value to some clubs, so if we can cash in and get 'overs' we should at least look at it.

[St Dave]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

We aren't hanging off potential though. He kicked 52 goals in 2022 (avg 2.36 in his third year) was on track for 56 last year (avg 2.55 per game, for comparison Jessie Hogan averaged 3 per game this year) despite injuries and he was only really poor this year where he was even more impacted by injuries and still averaged 1.56 goals per game (vs our leading goal kicker Higgins who averaged 1.8 per game).

Yeah but we didn't draft him hoping for a B+ forward like Hogan, we were sold 'Winx'! A generational talent who will become the number one forward in the game, give him number 12!

Right now he would still hold that value to some clubs, so if we can cash in and get 'overs' we should at least look at it.

I used Hogan as an example because he won the Coleman by 11 goals this year. If a B+ forward is what it takes to do that, you must still be grading on an 80s/90s benchmark.

He was 12 goals off the Coleman in 2022 which was his last full year. That is also the most goals kicked by a Saints player since Milne in 2012.

Don't just sook about 'but we were sold a 3+ goal a game forward, but this guy only kicked 2.36 goals per game as a 22 year old and has been injured since so we should get rid', actually propose a solution. Do you have a real idea to replace a 2.5+ goal a game forward? Because our next prospect is Cooper Sharman (who is the same age as King) and he only kicked 14 goals in his last 9 games while King was out (avg 1.55), so we lose a goal a game on average?

[The_Dud]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

We aren't hanging off potential though. He kicked 52 goals in 2022 (avg 2.36 in his third year) was on track for 56 last year (avg 2.55 per game, for comparison Jessie Hogan averaged 3 per game this year) despite injuries and he was only really poor this year where he was even more impacted by injuries and still averaged 1.56 goals per game (vs our leading goal kicker Higgins who averaged 1.8 per game).

Yeah but we didn't draft him hoping for a B+ forward like Hogan, we were sold 'Winx'! A generational talent who will become the number one forward in the game, give him number 12!

Right now he would still hold that value to some clubs, so if we can cash in and get 'overs' we should at least look at it.

I used Hogan as an example because he won the Coleman by 11 goals this year. If a B+ forward is what it takes to do that, you must still be grading on an 80s/90s benchmark.

He was 12 goals off the Coleman in 2022 which was his last full year. That is also the most goals kicked by a Saints player since Milne in 2012.

Don't just sook about 'but we were sold a 3+ goal a game forward, but this guy only kicked 2.36 goals per game as a 22 year old and has been injured since so we should get rid', actually propose a solution. Do you have a real idea to replace a 2.5+ goal a game forward? Because our next prospect is Cooper Sharman (who is the same age as King) and he only kicked 14 goals in his last 9 games while King was out (avg 1.55), so we lose a goal a game on average?

I'm pretty sure I've been fairly consistent with this take - an elite midfiled makes ok forward/back lines look great.

Hit this draft with 4 or 5 first round picks (multiple top 10) and draft the best mids available, depending how everything turns out draft mids again next year. Once a dominant midfield is established you bring in some big bodies through trading / free agency to finish off the forward and back lines and make your run for a flag. Hogan cost GWS a late third round pick.

Melbourne, Bulldogs and Collingwood all won premierships recently without a dominant key forward. Even Geelong did it way back with Podsiadly and Mooney leading the goalkicking.

[Killa]

And a question for all the "experts" on here, including those in the retrospective McCartin/Petracca opinion space .

What is the most difficult position to play in in AFL football?

I would suggest it is as a key forward, with one and often two opponents contesting against you and dedicated to denying space and minimizing your impact (and seeing performances such as we see by Battle - before we get to the tactics Sheedy used against Tony

And that is why key forwards (including prospective) come with a premium.

If you look at the first bounce last Sunday, Cripps ran thru space where there were restricted numbers and onto the work of a Ruckman so a clean, unchallenged possession - then continued to impact around the ground despite the negating efforts of Stocker (until injured). And yes a "lock down" player can be assigned to dominant midfielders, but only one to deny space around the ground and put them under disposal pressure.

Key forwards are double teamed including by blocking.

Depending on who you have on your List, give me a potential dominating key forward over any other prospective recruit any day.

And they can take time to mature, aka Hogan.

Then you have the likes of Darcy, with his height and athletic ability, supported by the other key forwards WB have so the third option.

Minus those other key forwards - well, the pressure would go up by plenty.

Much the same as Riewoldt with Gehrig, Hamill and Kosi.

[samoht]

Again, it's not as cut and dried as we think.

Crudely speaking, but just to illustrate the point ...
Let's say out of our 45 (forty five) F50 entries, on average , if 15 were being directed to King - in other words, we were looking for him on those 15 occasions, and the result was 2.5 goals were being kicked by him on average (this in his best year's return) ...
but now (and here's the thing) with King out of the side , those 15 passes are being directed to the 5 other regular forwards, Owens, Membrey, Sharman, Butler, Higgins, plus Wood floating in, Wilson floating in, Phillipou floating in, Henry, Steele also ... we're looking for other players on those 15 occasions (with King out, obviously we can no longer pass it to him, and we're no longer focussing on him), and the result is we're kicking 6 goals instead!

Our conversion rate has improved by 3.5 goals - over the 45 entries, and specifically from the 15 passes that were previously going to King.

So, it's not about one player, Sharman let's say, now becoming the top banana and he's only kicking 1 goal vs the 2.5 provided by King, it's about our forward line now kicking 3.5 extra goals (6 vs 2.5) with King not being part of it. It has become more efficient!

Again, it's being simplistic ... and the real reasons need to be quantified and determined. But we seem to be kicking more goals and our conversion rate has also seemingly increased with King missing.
Why is it so ?? It's definitely worth investigating, and the reasons need to be understood.

[Nick DalSanto Claus]

The club won't trade King. Period. He is a cornerstone in the building of our list.

[The_Dud]

The club won't trade King. Period. He is a cornerstone in the building of our list.

And this is the kind of close minded thinking by the club that holds us back. Not saying we have to trade him, but to not even look at options is very poor.

[St Dave]

Again, it's not as cut and dried as we think.

Crudely speaking, but just to illustrate the point ...
Let's say out of our 45 (forty five) F50 entries, on average , if 15 were being directed to King - in other words, we were looking for him on those 15 occasions, and the result was 2.5 goals were being kicked by him on average (this in his best year's return) ...
but now (and here's the thing) with King out of the side , those 15 passes are being directed to the 5 other regular forwards, Owens, Membrey, Sharman, Butler, Higgins, plus Wood floating in, Wilson floating in, Phillipou floating in, Henry, Steele also ... we're looking for other players on those 15 occasions (with King out, obviously we can no longer pass it to him, and we're no longer focussing on him), and the result is we're kicking 6 goals instead!

Our conversion rate has improved by 3.5 goals - over the 45 entries, and specifically from the 15 passes that were previously going to King.

So, it's not about one player, Sharman let's say, now becoming the top banana and he's only kicking 1 goal vs the 2.5 provided by King, it's about our forward line now kicking 3.5 extra goals (6 vs 2.5) with King not being part of it. It has become more efficient!

Again, it's being simplistic ... and the real reasons need to be quantified and determined. But we seem to be kicking more goals and our conversion rate has also seemingly increased with King missing.
Why is it so ?? It's definitely worth investigating, and the reasons need to be understood.

This is all good theory, I would say our midfield ball movement changed which drove our improved efficiency, and provided the data in the King/Petracca thread (in response to you actually), but maybe it has relevance to this discussion also.

If you can find that targeting efficiency data that would be useful additional context. Personally I think our changed tenancy to lower our eyes and hit a lead rather than bomb in long is the driver, but that is just my opinion.

This has to happen when King is back and I think he will thrive in that environment too.

As others have noted, it isn't just our forward line structure that has improved, it is the ball movement across the team that has helped unlock it.

Over the year we have always been a team that takes a lot of marks, but over the last 5 weeks we have actually averaged 25 more marks a game than any other team. We are number 1 for kicking (and overall disposal) efficiency over that period too. That has allowed us to stretch defences and despite being average for inside 50s per game we still take almost 3 more marks inside 50 than any other team, with marks on 35.4% of our forward 50 entries (vs pies second at 28.9% and the AFL average of 22.7%). A lot of this is due to lowering our eyes and picking leading targets, with our season average 6.1 marks on the lead improving to 11.2 average per game over the last 5 weeks.

There is no reason King being back next year needs to change any of that and I will be disappointed if it does.

Data from here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats ... ml?year=-1

[St Dave]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

We aren't hanging off potential though. He kicked 52 goals in 2022 (avg 2.36 in his third year) was on track for 56 last year (avg 2.55 per game, for comparison Jessie Hogan averaged 3 per game this year) despite injuries and he was only really poor this year where he was even more impacted by injuries and still averaged 1.56 goals per game (vs our leading goal kicker Higgins who averaged 1.8 per game).

Yeah but we didn't draft him hoping for a B+ forward like Hogan, we were sold 'Winx'! A generational talent who will become the number one forward in the game, give him number 12!

Right now he would still hold that value to some clubs, so if we can cash in and get 'overs' we should at least look at it.

I used Hogan as an example because he won the Coleman by 11 goals this year. If a B+ forward is what it takes to do that, you must still be grading on an 80s/90s benchmark.

He was 12 goals off the Coleman in 2022 which was his last full year. That is also the most goals kicked by a Saints player since Milne in 2012.

Don't just sook about 'but we were sold a 3+ goal a game forward, but this guy only kicked 2.36 goals per game as a 22 year old and has been injured since so we should get rid', actually propose a solution. Do you have a real idea to replace a 2.5+ goal a game forward? Because our next prospect is Cooper Sharman (who is the same age as King) and he only kicked 14 goals in his last 9 games while King was out (avg 1.55), so we lose a goal a game on average?

I'm pretty sure I've been fairly consistent with this take - an elite midfiled makes ok forward/back lines look great.

Hit this draft with 4 or 5 first round picks (multiple top 10) and draft the best mids available, depending how everything turns out draft mids again next year. Once a dominant midfield is established you bring in some big bodies through trading / free agency to finish off the forward and back lines and make your run for a flag. Hogan cost GWS a late third round pick.

Melbourne, Bulldogs and Collingwood all won premierships recently without a dominant key forward. Even Geelong did it way back with Podsiadly and Mooney leading the goalkicking.

Drafting mids has been our strategy since 2021. I agree we are not there yet and need more, but maybe we are closer than you might think (especially if we get another 2 first round mid this year), and I just disagree that listing our best key forward in a decade is how to get there. Trading in a key forward once we have a ready to go midfield is just as risky (for every Jessie Hogan (GWS) there are plenty of Ben Browns, Peter Wrights or even Jessie Hogan (Freo) that don't work out).

I agree that you can win a flag without a number 1 forward, but to do that you need a midfield that kicks goals. I might have to look in to it more when I have time, but it feels like part of our scoring improvement over the last 7ish weeks has been achieved through the midfield, so maybe we are part of the way there already.

[B.M]

Bulldogs had a team of elite mids in 2008/2009

Dominated possession

Couldn’t score - no key forwards

[The_Dud]

Bulldogs had a team of elite mids in 2008/2009

Dominated possession

Couldn’t score - no key forwards

The Bulldogs were the highest scoring team in 2009, and second highest in 2008...

[B.M]

Did they win the gf

Or even make it

Finals under the pump - dump kicks - need power forwards

[The_Dud]

Did they win the gf

Or even make it

Finals under the pump - dump kicks - need power forwards

Good ol' BM, never let facts or data get in the way of stubbornly sticking to an ill-informed opinion!

[spert]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

We aren't hanging off potential though. He kicked 52 goals in 2022 (avg 2.36 in his third year) was on track for 56 last year (avg 2.55 per game, for comparison Jessie Hogan averaged 3 per game this year) despite injuries and he was only really poor this year where he was even more impacted by injuries and still averaged 1.56 goals per game (vs our leading goal kicker Higgins who averaged 1.8 per game).

Yeah but we didn't draft him hoping for a B+ forward like Hogan, we were sold 'Winx'! A generational talent who will become the number one forward in the game, give him number 12!

Right now he would still hold that value to some clubs, so if we can cash in and get 'overs' we should at least look at it.

I used Hogan as an example because he won the Coleman by 11 goals this year. If a B+ forward is what it takes to do that, you must still be grading on an 80s/90s benchmark.

He was 12 goals off the Coleman in 2022 which was his last full year. That is also the most goals kicked by a Saints player since Milne in 2012.

Don't just sook about 'but we were sold a 3+ goal a game forward, but this guy only kicked 2.36 goals per game as a 22 year old and has been injured since so we should get rid', actually propose a solution. Do you have a real idea to replace a 2.5+ goal a game forward? Because our next prospect is Cooper Sharman (who is the same age as King) and he only kicked 14 goals in his last 9 games while King was out (avg 1.55), so we lose a goal a game on average?

I'm pretty sure I've been fairly consistent with this take - an elite midfiled makes ok forward/back lines look great.

Hit this draft with 4 or 5 first round picks (multiple top 10) and draft the best mids available, depending how everything turns out draft mids again next year. Once a dominant midfield is established you bring in some big bodies through trading / free agency to finish off the forward and back lines and make your run for a flag. Hogan cost GWS a late third round pick.

Melbourne, Bulldogs and Collingwood all won premierships recently without a dominant key forward. Even Geelong did it way back with Podsiadly and Mooney leading the goalkicking.

Tom Boyd- Bulldogs?

[The_Dud]

StK won games without Tony Lockett
And
Lost games with Tony Lockett

Should we have left him out?

We have made finals twice in the last 5 years

King was in the side

He is an asset - had a poor run with injuries - has a huge scope for improvement

Could be a 60-80 goal player fully fit

lol, who needs logic I suppose!

And I’m glad we’re still hanging off ‘potential’ for our marquee player coming into his 6th season…

We aren't hanging off potential though. He kicked 52 goals in 2022 (avg 2.36 in his third year) was on track for 56 last year (avg 2.55 per game, for comparison Jessie Hogan averaged 3 per game this year) despite injuries and he was only really poor this year where he was even more impacted by injuries and still averaged 1.56 goals per game (vs our leading goal kicker Higgins who averaged 1.8 per game).

Yeah but we didn't draft him hoping for a B+ forward like Hogan, we were sold 'Winx'! A generational talent who will become the number one forward in the game, give him number 12!

Right now he would still hold that value to some clubs, so if we can cash in and get 'overs' we should at least look at it.

I used Hogan as an example because he won the Coleman by 11 goals this year. If a B+ forward is what it takes to do that, you must still be grading on an 80s/90s benchmark.

He was 12 goals off the Coleman in 2022 which was his last full year. That is also the most goals kicked by a Saints player since Milne in 2012.

Don't just sook about 'but we were sold a 3+ goal a game forward, but this guy only kicked 2.36 goals per game as a 22 year old and has been injured since so we should get rid', actually propose a solution. Do you have a real idea to replace a 2.5+ goal a game forward? Because our next prospect is Cooper Sharman (who is the same age as King) and he only kicked 14 goals in his last 9 games while King was out (avg 1.55), so we lose a goal a game on average?

I'm pretty sure I've been fairly consistent with this take - an elite midfiled makes ok forward/back lines look great.

Hit this draft with 4 or 5 first round picks (multiple top 10) and draft the best mids available, depending how everything turns out draft mids again next year. Once a dominant midfield is established you bring in some big bodies through trading / free agency to finish off the forward and back lines and make your run for a flag. Hogan cost GWS a late third round pick.

Melbourne, Bulldogs and Collingwood all won premierships recently without a dominant key forward. Even Geelong did it way back with Podsiadly and Mooney leading the goalkicking.

Tom Boyd- Bulldogs?

Are you talking about elite power forward Tom Boyd who kicked 13 goals in 2016?

[Scollop]

Did they win the gf

Or even make it

Finals under the pump - dump kicks - need power forwards

Boyd played in the ruck. He was a mid/follower in the Grand Final...not a power forward

Hopefully that'll be Rowan Marshall one day

[B.M]

Dud

I do like to use facts when giving an opinion

The dogs were beaten by us in finals

They had a great midfield- we had a great midfield (like most top 4 teams!)

We had Nick Reiwoldt
They did not

[Scollop]

Dud

I do like to use facts when giving an opinion

The dogs were beaten by us in finals

They had a great midfield- we had a great midfield (like most top 4 teams!)

We had Nick Reiwoldt
They did not

Rooy was vital in both prelims, but so was our brilliant midfield. I think we had the best going around with Dal, BJ, Joey, and Lenny.

[samoht]

I thought the footy adage says that good, solid defences win finals.

Battle is in his prime, and in the right age bracket.

He's not "our 7th best player," he's elite in his position ... and ranking him behind our midfielders and other players approaching their twilight years is simply wrong and very short-sighted.