Stats are a garbage argument

This unofficial St Kilda Saints fan forum is for people of all ages to chat Saints Footy and all posts must be respectful.

Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators

Post Reply
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072642Post Scollop »

Fantasy

You're fabricating an argument based on bs

Brad had a total of 11 touches on the weekend. He had 1 contested possession :mrgreen:

Brad's biggest ever contested possession count was 11. He'd be lucky to ever get close to that again

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players ... _Hill.html


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072643Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:29pm Fantasy

You're fabricating an argument based on bs

Brad had a total of 11 touches on the weekend. He had 1 contested possession :mrgreen:

Brad's biggest ever contested possession count was 11. He'd be lucky to ever get close to that again

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players ... _Hill.html
Why are using this week when I'm simply using two names as an example.


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
St Dave
Club Player
Posts: 382
Joined: Wed 01 May 2024 11:58pm
Has thanked: 139 times
Been thanked: 107 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072644Post St Dave »

CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:26pm
St Dave wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:21pm
CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:08pm
Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 2:57pm I know you're challenged but seriously FO mate

Each time he earns a contested possession he is winning a contested ball. Do you fkn know what that word means? It means the opposition has an equal chance of winning it!!

Each contested possession is won where the opposition is next to him. In some cases they have a better chance of getting it, but he is faster, moves into positions to guard the ball or puts them off balance or uses his strength to shake off tacklers.
Now listen to me again. The term contested should actually mean the ball is contested. You know putting your body in a position to take possession while getting contact. Thats a contested possession. Go back watch StKilda v Essendon 14 to go in the 3rd watch Hunter Clark win a contested possession and give it off.
I don't give a toss what the matrix is as its wrong.
You should read that abc article that was posted. Very interesting exploring how contested position is defined. Just because you don't like the definition doesn't make it wrong, you just want a different more specific stat
I'm saying that if someone said to you that 2 players both had 32 touches and 20 contested and one was Dangerfield the other was Brad Hill what goes through your mind.
I know how a contested possession is defined so I would know what it meant (Danger had a very good game and Hill played a blinder out of position).

Just read that article DB Cooper posted. It will save you all this stress, and you will know more about understanding football


Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072645Post Scollop »

CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:29pm
Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:27pm Hahahaha 😂

Brad Hill is going to get 20 contested possessions

You heard it here first in fantasyland
Well with the definition of a contested possession he can and he doesn't have to make contact with another player.
A contest means there's a ball in dispute. Sometimes there'll be physical contact but not always

There's a footy to be won on the ground... or it's bouncing around...in each case there are multiple ways of winning the ball against an opponent who is right next to you...AND HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF GETTING THE SHERRIN

Obviously in most situations you have to get body contact on your opponent to unbalance them and give you time to grab it.... however

You can out run them by tapping the ball on and moving it in angles and arching your back and that would be without hardly any contact.

Do you want to remove ALL of Nicky's and Harv's contested ball stats because they did that?


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072646Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:49pm
CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:29pm
Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 3:27pm Hahahaha 😂

Brad Hill is going to get 20 contested possessions

You heard it here first in fantasyland
Well with the definition of a contested possession he can and he doesn't have to make contact with another player.
A contest means there's a ball in dispute. Sometimes there'll be physical contact but not always

There's a footy to be won on the ground... or it's bouncing around...in each case there are multiple ways of winning the ball against an opponent who is right next to you...AND HAS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF GETTING THE SHERRIN

Obviously in most situations you have to get body contact on your opponent to unbalance them and give you time to grab it.... however

You can out run them by tapping the ball on and moving it in angles and arching your back and that would be without hardly any contact.

Do you want to remove ALL of Nicky's and Harv's contested ball stats because they did that?

Listen to me. I don't want anything removed I don't care who got what. I'm saying that using stats it doesn't tell you the whole story.

Let me use an even simpler example.

Jack Steeles second goal on the weekend. Now he gets the goal credited to him which is fine as he kicked it but using a goal like that to determine votes or bests doesn't tell the story.

Disclaimer this isn't a go at Jack Steele just an example


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072658Post Scollop »

You're deflecting. Do you still want to stick to what you said?
Daicos had 3 contested possessions in the first 5 minutes. Not one was he in a contested situation.


https://www.saintsational.net/viewtopic ... 9#p2072279

1. Stoppage deep in Richmond's forward line. It's a stoppage with bodies everywhere

2. Naicos smothers...he virtually steals it off Richmond's players boot and the Tigers bloke tries to tackle him

3. Naicos front and ctre collects ground ball in front of 2 oppo

Open your eyes...and open your mind next time you're watching a game of footy


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072660Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 6:01pm You're deflecting. Do you still want to stick to what you said?
Daicos had 3 contested possessions in the first 5 minutes. Not one was he in a contested situation.


https://www.saintsational.net/viewtopic ... 9#p2072279

1. Stoppage deep in Richmond's forward line. It's a stoppage with bodies everywhere

2. Naicos smothers...he virtually steals it off Richmond's players boot and the Tigers bloke tries to tackle him

3. Naicos front and ctre collects ground ball in front of 2 oppo

Open your eyes...and open your mind next time you're watching a game of footy
You don’t get it your more concerned about Daicos


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072661Post Scollop »

It's not complex CURLY. Most of us agree with your general premise. That's not the issue I had. As St Dave has said to you. Read the abc article.

I've been posting for years about the difference between some possessions and others.... I got shut down by some forumites when I criticised Sebby's stats in 2019...then I did the same regarding Brad Crouch last year.

What I did though...was I highlighted specific passages of play...I didn't start a thread talking about crap in general about no one in particular

You then identified Daicos and you said something which is a lie. 100% of footy experts and coaches and footy followers would see Daicos's first quarter and tell you they were genuine contested possessions
Last edited by Scollop on Wed 31 Jul 2024 7:00pm, edited 1 time in total.


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072663Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 6:55pm It's not complex CURLY. Most of us agree with your general premise. That's not the issue I had. As St Dave has said to you. Read the abc article.

I've been posting for years about the difference between some possessions and others.... I got shut down by some forumites when I criticised Sebby's stats in 2019...then I did the same regarding Brad Crouch last year.

What I did though...was I highlighted specific passages of play...I didn't start a thread talking about crap in general about no one in particular
I disagree with what you regard as contested what’s your problem.


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072664Post Scollop »

100% of footy experts and coaches and footy followers would see Daicos's first quarter and tell you they were genuine contested possessions

You said he was 10m in the clear

Do you have a problem with the truth?


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072665Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 7:02pm 100% of footy experts and coaches and footy followers would see Daicos's first quarter and tell you they were genuine contested possessions

You said he was 10m in the clear

Do you have a problem with the truth?
Incorrect


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072666Post Scollop »

I couldn't give a stuff if Nick Daicos keels over tomorrow and never plays another game of footy in his life...but the leaderboard in the coaches award has 16/20 players who are rated mostly for contested ball.

Most of them get more inside ball than outside ball, but Nick still probably gets 40% genuine contested possessions. Against Richmond -18 of his 42 were cp. He had 11 clearances

CURLY understands football better than AFL coaches

https://aflcoaches.com.au/awards/the-af ... eaderboard


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072667Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 7:16pm I couldn't give a stuff if Nick Daicos keels over tomorrow and never plays another game of footy in his life...but the leaderboard in the coaches award has 16/20 players who are rated mostly for contested ball.

Most of them get more inside ball than outside ball, but Nick still probably gets 40% genuine contested possessions. Against Richmond -18 of his 42 were cp. He had 11 clearances

CURLY understands football better than AFL coaches

https://aflcoaches.com.au/awards/the-af ... eaderboard
What the f*** does any of that have to do with how contested possessions are given.
You’re fascinated with Daicos


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
User avatar
desertsaint
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10429
Joined: Sun 27 Apr 2008 2:02pm
Location: out there
Has thanked: 190 times
Been thanked: 713 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072669Post desertsaint »

interesting that 48% of contested balls are loose ball gets which are basically uncontested, so why are they included at all? interesting also that nick daicos gets four times as many loose ball gets as hard ball gets, whereas patrick cripps has an almost fifty/fifty ratio of loose and hard ball gets.
in the end i guess a high number of loose ball gets represents an ability to stay away from physical contests but have a sense of awareness about where the ball will spill. whereas hard ball gets represents a willingness and ability to get dirty and win the ball body on body.
so i see where curly is going with this. 'contested possessions' is a misleading name. it can mean hitting a contest or fighting to win possessions, but far more often means picking up a loose ball whether anyone else is there or not.


"The starting point of all achievement is desire. "
B.M
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12674
Joined: Thu 04 Jul 2019 8:53pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 2707 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072670Post B.M »

Doesn’t make Cripps or Daicos and better or worse

They are just different styles of player

Cripps, Matt Rowell, Oliver etc are contested bulls

Daicos, Merrett, Miller, Brayshaw, Sinclair are hard runners

All are great footballers

Doesn’t matter how you get it, it matters whether you get it

NWM is 90% uncontested - he’s a star


Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072673Post Scollop »

Lachie Neale has very high numbers for loose ball gets. So does Caleb Serong...so does Tom Greene

But...they also get their fair share of other contested footy. They're all getting lots of clearances

Daicos had 11 clearances on the weekend and 2 of those came from stoppages very early in the game. CURLY reckons he had zero genuine contested possessions in the first 5 minutes

You win CURLY :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


User avatar
The_Dud
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 14030
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007 9:53pm
Location: Bendigo
Has thanked: 1314 times
Been thanked: 2092 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072675Post The_Dud »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 8:22pm Lachie Neale has very high numbers for loose ball gets. So does Caleb Serong...so does Tom Greene

But...they also get their fair share of other contested footy. They're all getting lots of clearances

Daicos had 11 clearances on the weekend and 2 of those came from stoppages very early in the game. CURLY reckons he had zero genuine contested possessions in the first 5 minutes

You win CURLY :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Are you only now just realising that Curly will regularly blatantly lie about things that we can all clearly see on the broadcast? Almost like he doesn’t realise replays exist!


All posters are equal, but some posters are more equal than others.
CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072677Post CURLY »

The_Dud wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 8:45pm
Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 8:22pm Lachie Neale has very high numbers for loose ball gets. So does Caleb Serong...so does Tom Greene

But...they also get their fair share of other contested footy. They're all getting lots of clearances

Daicos had 11 clearances on the weekend and 2 of those came from stoppages very early in the game. CURLY reckons he had zero genuine contested possessions in the first 5 minutes

You win CURLY :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Are you only now just realising that Curly will regularly blatantly lie about things that we can all clearly see on the broadcast? Almost like he doesn’t realise replays exist!

Again Mr Know nothing comments without anything football.

Lie did I ? Scollop posted Daicos first 5 touches most he was not touched by opposition and he said as much. I don’t believe that’s a contested possession. You can think what you like Bozo.


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072678Post Scollop »

CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 10:38am
The_Dud wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 10:36am
D.B.Cooper wrote: Tue 30 Jul 2024 7:02pm Here is the article that formed Curly's opinion on contested possession stats.

Great work Whispering Ted.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/ ... /104113954
Whoops :lol:
Given Ive never read that article and no big deal if I had.

I will ask again is Zac Merret in the best 47 players in the League///
Maybe Zac Merrett and Chad Warner win all their possessions while being 10m in the clear :mrgreen:

I'd be a little sceptical of a list that has Dylan Moore, Bailey Dale and Massimo D'Ambrosio ahead of Chad Warner

I mean sure...they play in other positions... but I'd be surprised if the Chad misses on getting into the AA team and one of those 3 get in.

https://afl.sportsmatemobile.com/news/156817

Without the pay wall


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072679Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 9:14pm
CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 10:38am
The_Dud wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 10:36am
D.B.Cooper wrote: Tue 30 Jul 2024 7:02pm Here is the article that formed Curly's opinion on contested possession stats.

Great work Whispering Ted.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/ ... /104113954
Whoops :lol:
Given Ive never read that article and no big deal if I had.

I will ask again is Zac Merret in the best 47 players in the League///
Maybe Zac Merrett and Chad Warner win all their possessions while being 10m in the clear :mrgreen:

I'd be a little sceptical of a list that has Dylan Moore, Bailey Dale and Massimo D'Ambrosio ahead of Chad Warner

I mean sure...they play in other positions... but I'd be surprised if the Chad misses on getting into the AA team and one of those 3 get in.

https://afl.sportsmatemobile.com/news/156817

Without the pay wall
Or maybe two players don’t lay a hand on him even though they’re only inches away from him.


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072680Post Scollop »

CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 9:20pm
Or maybe two players don’t lay a hand on him even though they’re only inches away from him.
That's not what I said. Good try though 😅

If someone bumps and moves you off the ball, does that qualify in your mind as a contest?

If someone...or two oppo players are tackling you and within inches of stopping you from getting your clean hball away, is that a contested possession?

Watch the replay CURLY.


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072682Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 9:31pm
CURLY wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 9:20pm
Or maybe two players don’t lay a hand on him even though they’re only inches away from him.
That's not what I said.

If someone bumps and moves you off the ball, does that qualify in your mind as a contest?

If someone...or two oppo players are tackling you and within inches of stopping you from getting your clean hball away, is that a contested possession?

Watch the replay CURLY.
You said Richmond players virtually inches away from him. I mean players 50mm away and not one tackled.

Look it’s not the point of the thread but I will repeat contested possessions need to be contested.


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072683Post Scollop »

Oppo players virtually inches away from intercepting the footy.

Not virtually inches away from player

There's arms, shoulders, hips and other body parts touching CURLY.

Watch the replay


Scollop
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 12082
Joined: Sun 11 Sep 2011 2:26pm
Has thanked: 3698 times
Been thanked: 2573 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072684Post Scollop »

CURLY wrote: Sun 28 Jul 2024 5:21pm
Daicos had 3 contested possessions in the first 5 minutes. Not one was he in a contested situation. The way these stats are measured are just not a true indication of a player.
The glow is an outright lie. You're making up s*** to justify your prejudice towards an individual.

This second sentence
The way these stats are measured are just not a true indication of a player.
What's the true indication of a player? Especially a player leading the votes for the AFLCA award and just about everything else

The coaches are rating all his contested possessions incorrectly ate they CURLY?

Like everyone on Saintsational is rating Ryan Byrnes incorrectly when he has a good game?
Last edited by Scollop on Wed 31 Jul 2024 10:04pm, edited 1 time in total.


CURLY
Saintsational Legend
Posts: 10472
Joined: Fri 16 Feb 2007 3:24pm
Location: WARBURTON
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Stats are a garbage argument

Post: # 2072685Post CURLY »

Scollop wrote: Wed 31 Jul 2024 9:54pm Oppo players virtually inches away from intercepting the footy.

Not virtually inches away from player

There's arms, shoulders, hips and other body parts touching CURLY.

Watch the replay
So no contact.


NO IFS OR BUTS HARVS IS KING OF THE AFL
Post Reply