The Impact of Player Consistency on AFL Ladder Rankings: A Statistical Insight

[nostalgicsaint]

Wrote this and shared on social media- sharing here in case it is interesting to the forum.


In the world of #AFL, team performance is influenced by various factors, including strategy, player form, and injuries. One intriguing aspect worth exploring is the correlation between the number of players used by a team throughout the season and their position on the ladder. This post delves into this relationship and identifies teams that overachieve or underachieve despite the observed trends.

Analysis of Player Usage and Ladder Rankings

Analysis of the data from the 2024 AFL season, ranking teams by the number of players used (from least to most) and their corresponding ladder positions.

Here's the data:

Club	Players Used Rank	Ladder Rank
Sydney	1	1
Essendon	2	10
GWS	3	5
Fremantle	4	3
Hawthorn	5	9
Port	6	7
Carlton	7	4
Geelong	8	6
Bulldogs	9	8
Melbourne	10	11
Brisbane	11	2
Collingwood	12	12
Gold Coast	13	13
St Kilda	14	14
West Coast	15	16
Adelaide	16	15
North	17	17
Richmond	18	18

Using this data, the calculated correlation coefficient is 0.81, indicating a strong positive correlation. This suggests that teams using fewer players generally perform better on the ladder.

Key Insights

1. Strong Positive Correlation: The high positive correlation (0.81) reveals that teams with more stable and consistent line-ups tend to achieve higher rankings on the ladder.

This consistency likely contributes to better team cohesion and overall performance.

2. Top Performers: Teams such as Sydney and Fremantle, which have used fewer players, are among the top performers. Their stability in player selection appears to be a significant factor in their success.

3. Bottom Teams: On the flip side, teams like North, Richmond, and West Coast, which have used more players, occupy the lower rungs of the ladder. This could be attributed to factors such as injuries, inconsistent form, or strategic rotations leading to less stable team performance.


Despite the strong correlation, there are notable exceptions:

Overachievers
*Brisbane (11th in players used, 2nd on ladder)*: Despite using more players than many other top teams, Brisbane's strong ladder position indicates effective management and depth in their squad.


Underachievers
*Essendon (2nd in players used, 10th on ladder): Despite using relatively few players, Essendon’s mid-table finish points to potential issues beyond player consistency, such as injuries to key players or strategic challenges.

*Hawthorn (5th in players used, 9th on ladder)**: Similarly, Hawthorn’s performance indicates that factors other than player usage, such as overall team performance and strategy, play a critical role.

Conclusion
This analysis highlights the significant impact of player consistency and injuries on AFL team performance, with a strong correlation suggesting that stable line-ups often lead to better results.

Exceptions to the trend could be an indicator of clubs to keep an eye on for potential rapid improvement or decline year on year.

[St Dave]

Very good analysis. I think everyone would all agree that having your best squad out there as often as possible is very important in winning games, so good to see how the data backs that up

[King Max]

Or do better results lead to stable line ups?

[nostalgicsaint]

Or do better results lead to stable line ups?

No doubt there is an element of this.

The original post highlights correlation not causation. It is just as likely results dictate the amount of player changes (coaches choose to make more or less changes based on results) as it is player changes dictate results. (when changes are forced)

It would be amazing to have reliable injury data but this isn't readily available as clubs don't always accurately disclose the injuries they are dealing with.

For this reason, the most interesting insight I can see in the data is the outliers. That and the strong correlation from 10 down on the players used list.

• Brisbane performing despite large numbers of players used

• Essendon not despite few players used

I'd argue this is an indicator of how strong Brisbane is and highlights the challenges ahead of the Bombers.

[SteeleSaints]

A great thread and research Nostalgic. It highlights what most were suggesting early in the season. Having so many injuries and unavailable key players killed our start to season and any hope of creating momentum.

[SteeleSaints]

A great thread and research Nostalgic. It highlights what most were suggesting early in the season. Having so many injuries and unavailable key players killed our start to season and any hope of creating momentum.