Weapons up our sleeve for the finals

[shanegrambeau]

Going out on a (desperate?) limb here…

Dare I say

Stats will tell you that Tim Membrey has a poor record against both Sydney, and indeed, most interstate teams.

Sydney saw him this year and he was a shadow of himself as far as we were concerned

So Shane Brilliant Grambeau suggests that GWS will underage/disrespect him and by the time they realize (10 mins into the second) he will have four in the board.

It will be a low scoring slug fest. (Both teams highest rated defence) Tim’s four goal first quarter will be the difference between the teams. We will hold in the grind!
Then St kilda’s

[CQ SAINT]

Higgins has kicked 92 goals at St.Kilda in 58 games and 38 this season.
Billings has kicked 108 in 158 games and 20 goals since we got Higgins.

If you were going to drop your leading goal kicker in a final, you'd probably have a better weapon up your sleeve than Billings.

If you think of dropping your leading goal kicker, because he wouldn't have gotten as many goals if King and Membrey was playing, then you missed the fact that he has kicked 27.16, 30.25 and 35.25 for the last 3 years, while King got 38.30, 52.41 and 25.11 and Membrey managed 34.26, 34.20 and 6.8.

It just doesn't make sense.

[Otiman]

Agree CQ, we need players who can find the big sticks.

[Vortex]

...

yeah but he won our leading goal kicker so he's got some value...

so will be interesting to see how he goes with Hayes, Members and King to loiter around.

Interesting yes. Predictable no

let's just hope we get some attacking flare...and in a final no less, just wish we had even a couple more games of that group I mention playing together before the final.

Butler and Higgo have played together for 5 years

Hill and our mids have been delivering the ball forward to Higgo for 3 years.

That hasn't helped Higgo's ability to take a chest mark or find his mate Dan with a handball or kick for goal (his set shot conversion would have to be the worst in the league)

yeah be good if he could improve it but gee he still has kicked nearly 40 in the H&A season as well as playing a role a bit further up the ground to help out with the wall and drive it back our way. Just recon if the Hayes, Members and King can cause the defense to focus on them then either Higgo or Buttler will be salivating at that prospect which is a luxury the forward line hasn't had had all season.

Let's hope Higgins remembers his role and doesn't compete in the air with our talls and let's hope he does what a small is supposed to, and he gets front and centre

Anyway Vortex...
Good to see you positive on the Saints prospects. My sphynctor will gradually be getting tighter as game day approaches

What I’m positive/excited about is we get to see for the first time our first choice talls in the forward line play together, what is a crying shame is it is happening in our finals game so as I say it would of been great to see our first choice forwards play most of the year in the year that is Lyons “exploration” year. Probably means next year is another “exploration” year to get a good feel for if our current first choice forwards can be part of a GF team. But yeah really looking forward to see how certain players go in a match that actual matters, in a sense the sample size starts next Saturday. All else before it is froth N bubble.

[CQ SAINT]

...

yeah but he won our leading goal kicker so he's got some value...

so will be interesting to see how he goes with Hayes, Members and King to loiter around.

Interesting yes. Predictable no

let's just hope we get some attacking flare...and in a final no less, just wish we had even a couple more games of that group I mention playing together before the final.

Butler and Higgo have played together for 5 years

Hill and our mids have been delivering the ball forward to Higgo for 3 years.

That hasn't helped Higgo's ability to take a chest mark or find his mate Dan with a handball or kick for goal (his set shot conversion would have to be the worst in the league)

yeah be good if he could improve it but gee he still has kicked nearly 40 in the H&A season as well as playing a role a bit further up the ground to help out with the wall and drive it back our way. Just recon if the Hayes, Members and King can cause the defense to focus on them then either Higgo or Buttler will be salivating at that prospect which is a luxury the forward line hasn't had had all season.

Let's hope Higgins remembers his role and doesn't compete in the air with our talls and let's hope he does what a small is supposed to, and he gets front and centre

Anyway Vortex...
Good to see you positive on the Saints prospects. My sphynctor will gradually be getting tighter as game day approaches

What I’m positive/excited about is we get to see for the first time our first choice talls in the forward line play together, what is a crying shame is it is happening in our finals game so as I say it would of been great to see our first choice forwards play most of the year in the year that is Lyons “exploration” year. Probably means next year is another “exploration” year to get a good feel for if our current first choice forwards can be part of a GF team. But yeah really looking forward to see how certain players go in a match that actual matters, in a sense the sample size starts next Saturday. All else before it is froth N bubble.

Yeah, there's been a lot of froth and bubble. That's for sure.

But we haven't been as consistent in 10 years and turned a bottom four list into a top 6 list.

I think 10 years is a fair sample size or compared to just 1 year with a decent coaching panel.

We've been turning over 8.2 players a year for a decade because we wanted a stable coach, then he needed a hand from his close mate and then the boss took over.

[Vortex]

...

yeah but he won our leading goal kicker so he's got some value...

so will be interesting to see how he goes with Hayes, Members and King to loiter around.

Interesting yes. Predictable no

let's just hope we get some attacking flare...and in a final no less, just wish we had even a couple more games of that group I mention playing together before the final.

Butler and Higgo have played together for 5 years

Hill and our mids have been delivering the ball forward to Higgo for 3 years.

That hasn't helped Higgo's ability to take a chest mark or find his mate Dan with a handball or kick for goal (his set shot conversion would have to be the worst in the league)

yeah be good if he could improve it but gee he still has kicked nearly 40 in the H&A season as well as playing a role a bit further up the ground to help out with the wall and drive it back our way. Just recon if the Hayes, Members and King can cause the defense to focus on them then either Higgo or Buttler will be salivating at that prospect which is a luxury the forward line hasn't had had all season.

Let's hope Higgins remembers his role and doesn't compete in the air with our talls and let's hope he does what a small is supposed to, and he gets front and centre

Anyway Vortex...
Good to see you positive on the Saints prospects. My sphynctor will gradually be getting tighter as game day approaches

What I’m positive/excited about is we get to see for the first time our first choice talls in the forward line play together, what is a crying shame is it is happening in our finals game so as I say it would of been great to see our first choice forwards play most of the year in the year that is Lyons “exploration” year. Probably means next year is another “exploration” year to get a good feel for if our current first choice forwards can be part of a GF team. But yeah really looking forward to see how certain players go in a match that actual matters, in a sense the sample size starts next Saturday. All else before it is froth N bubble.

Yeah, there's been a lot of froth and bubble. That's for sure.

But we haven't been as consistent in 10 years and turned a bottom four list into a top 6 list.

I think 10 years is a fair sample size or compared to just 1 year with a decent coaching panel.

We've been turning over 8.2 players a year for a decade because we wanted a stable coach, then he needed a hand from his close mate and then the boss took over.

Sample size starts when we hit finals on a sustained basis and then the odd grand final parade. Now that’s my type of froth N bubble.

If we crash out in a big way next Saturday and then don’t return to finals next year then that’s probably the type of froth N bubble that is for your badge wearing blue haired rinse brigade, not that there’s anything wrong with that, but we all get tickled by the feather in different ways.

I find it’s best to hold your powder dry though on these matters though…let’s catch up after our game against GWS and review then huh.

[CQ SAINT]

...

yeah but he won our leading goal kicker so he's got some value...

so will be interesting to see how he goes with Hayes, Members and King to loiter around.

Interesting yes. Predictable no

let's just hope we get some attacking flare...and in a final no less, just wish we had even a couple more games of that group I mention playing together before the final.

Butler and Higgo have played together for 5 years

Hill and our mids have been delivering the ball forward to Higgo for 3 years.

That hasn't helped Higgo's ability to take a chest mark or find his mate Dan with a handball or kick for goal (his set shot conversion would have to be the worst in the league)

yeah be good if he could improve it but gee he still has kicked nearly 40 in the H&A season as well as playing a role a bit further up the ground to help out with the wall and drive it back our way. Just recon if the Hayes, Members and King can cause the defense to focus on them then either Higgo or Buttler will be salivating at that prospect which is a luxury the forward line hasn't had had all season.

Let's hope Higgins remembers his role and doesn't compete in the air with our talls and let's hope he does what a small is supposed to, and he gets front and centre

Anyway Vortex...
Good to see you positive on the Saints prospects. My sphynctor will gradually be getting tighter as game day approaches

What I’m positive/excited about is we get to see for the first time our first choice talls in the forward line play together, what is a crying shame is it is happening in our finals game so as I say it would of been great to see our first choice forwards play most of the year in the year that is Lyons “exploration” year. Probably means next year is another “exploration” year to get a good feel for if our current first choice forwards can be part of a GF team. But yeah really looking forward to see how certain players go in a match that actual matters, in a sense the sample size starts next Saturday. All else before it is froth N bubble.

Yeah, there's been a lot of froth and bubble. That's for sure.

But we haven't been as consistent in 10 years and turned a bottom four list into a top 6 list.

I think 10 years is a fair sample size or compared to just 1 year with a decent coaching panel.

We've been turning over 8.2 players a year for a decade because we wanted a stable coach, then he needed a hand from his close mate and then the boss took over.

Sample size starts when we hit finals on a sustained basis and then the odd grand final parade. Now that’s my type of froth N bubble.

If we crash out in a big way next Saturday and then don’t return to finals next year then that’s probably the type of froth N bubble that is for your badge wearing blue haired rinse brigade, not that there’s anything wrong with that, but we all get tickled by the feather in different ways.

I find it’s best to hold your powder dry though on these matters though…let’s catch up after our game against GWS and review then huh.

Yeah, we'll talk after the final we play. And discuss Aprils topics that didn't stop til, my goodness, is it SEPTEMBER.

Now we are aiming for finals, another year of exploration and more sample size.

[meher baba]

Higgins has kicked 92 goals at St.Kilda in 58 games and 38 this season.

According to the data I can access, Higgins has only kicked 35 goals this season, as well as 25 behinds.

He was out injured in rounds 17 and 18 and I think it's fair to say his form has deteriorated since then. In the 6 games he has played since then he has kicked 8 goals and 12 behinds, as opposed to 27 goals and 13 behinds in the first 15 games he played. It's a concern IMO. A goal sneak's main role is to kick goals and, ideally, he should also be able to lay plenty of tackles. Higgins (41 tackles from 21 games) is not a tackling machine like Butler (96 tackles in 23 games), and he is also a fair way behind Gresham (67 tackles in 22 games). And lately he hasn't been nailing many goals.

We currently have three small forwards plus two medium-sized ones in Owens and Philllipou. With Higgins struggling for form, Billings could perhaps provide something different to the mix. He's not likely to kick as many goals as Higgins at his best, but Higgins doesn't seem to be at his best.

However, as I have stated before, I fully expect Higgins to line up on Saturday week. Lyon clearly likes him and doesn't seem to rate Billings.

[meher baba]

And Vortex, I'm going to be concerned for your health and well being when the team sheet comes out next Thursday and shows Sharman in and Hayes only an emergency.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not in favour of this (if I had my druthers, Caminiti would be selected ahead of both of them). But I reckon that's what's going to happen.

[Vortex]

...

yeah but he won our leading goal kicker so he's got some value...

so will be interesting to see how he goes with Hayes, Members and King to loiter around.

Interesting yes. Predictable no

let's just hope we get some attacking flare...and in a final no less, just wish we had even a couple more games of that group I mention playing together before the final.

Butler and Higgo have played together for 5 years

Hill and our mids have been delivering the ball forward to Higgo for 3 years.

That hasn't helped Higgo's ability to take a chest mark or find his mate Dan with a handball or kick for goal (his set shot conversion would have to be the worst in the league)

yeah be good if he could improve it but gee he still has kicked nearly 40 in the H&A season as well as playing a role a bit further up the ground to help out with the wall and drive it back our way. Just recon if the Hayes, Members and King can cause the defense to focus on them then either Higgo or Buttler will be salivating at that prospect which is a luxury the forward line hasn't had had all season.

Let's hope Higgins remembers his role and doesn't compete in the air with our talls and let's hope he does what a small is supposed to, and he gets front and centre

Anyway Vortex...
Good to see you positive on the Saints prospects. My sphynctor will gradually be getting tighter as game day approaches

What I’m positive/excited about is we get to see for the first time our first choice talls in the forward line play together, what is a crying shame is it is happening in our finals game so as I say it would of been great to see our first choice forwards play most of the year in the year that is Lyons “exploration” year. Probably means next year is another “exploration” year to get a good feel for if our current first choice forwards can be part of a GF team. But yeah really looking forward to see how certain players go in a match that actual matters, in a sense the sample size starts next Saturday. All else before it is froth N bubble.

Yeah, there's been a lot of froth and bubble. That's for sure.

But we haven't been as consistent in 10 years and turned a bottom four list into a top 6 list.

I think 10 years is a fair sample size or compared to just 1 year with a decent coaching panel.

We've been turning over 8.2 players a year for a decade because we wanted a stable coach, then he needed a hand from his close mate and then the boss took over.

Sample size starts when we hit finals on a sustained basis and then the odd grand final parade. Now that’s my type of froth N bubble.

If we crash out in a big way next Saturday and then don’t return to finals next year then that’s probably the type of froth N bubble that is for your badge wearing blue haired rinse brigade, not that there’s anything wrong with that, but we all get tickled by the feather in different ways.

I find it’s best to hold your powder dry though on these matters though…let’s catch up after our game against GWS and review then huh.

Yeah, we'll talk after the final we play. And discuss Aprils topics that didn't stop til, my goodness, is it SEPTEMBER.

Now we are aiming for finals, another year of exploration and more sample size.

It’s what happens when you don’t have the concentration span of a gold fish…how’s the chess game coming along? We start your tutorials again as soon as we get out finals game out the way.

[CQ SAINT]

Higgins has kicked 92 goals at St.Kilda in 58 games and 38 this season.

According to the data I can access, Higgins has only kicked 35 goals this season, as well as 25 behinds.

He was out injured in rounds 17 and 18 and I think it's fair to say his form has deteriorated since then. In the 6 games he has played since then he has kicked 8 goals and 12 behinds, as opposed to 27 goals and 13 behinds in the first 15 games he played. It's a concern IMO. A goal sneak's main role is to kick goals and, ideally, he should also be able to lay plenty of tackles. Higgins (41 tackles from 21 games) is not a tackling machine like Butler (96 tackles in 23 games), and he is also a fair way behind Gresham (67 tackles in 22 games). And lately he hasn't been nailing many goals.

We currently have three small forwards plus two medium-sized ones in Owens and Philllipou. With Higgins struggling for form, Billings could perhaps provide something different to the mix. He's not likely to kick as many goals as Higgins at his best, but Higgins doesn't seem to be at his best.

However, as I have stated before, I fully expect Higgins to line up on Saturday week. Lyon clearly likes him and doesn't seem to rate Billings.

Cheers. That may be a typo. Check the data at the bottom of the post you quoted, I'm sure I wrote 35.25 there.

I see your point with Higgins, you have examples in his recent form to justify your point.

Could you apply the same argument to Billings now.

Other than just gifting him a game, which particular trait of his last 10 games would give you the confidence to pick him. I mean the ones for St.Kilda not Sandringham. Oh no, that's not fair, use his dominant match winning efforts at Sandy too then.

[Sanctorum]

Just for the record, Jack Billings in his 155 game career over 10 seasons has kicked 108 goals, 123 behinds.

Jack Higgins in 101 games over 6 years has kicked 121 goals, 91 behinds.

Higgins leaves Billings for dead, no way known he won't be selected next week.

JB's manager has come out touting his virtues in today's media suggesting clubs should seriously consider bringing him in, which you'd expect, but I doubt he'll get to play many more games in the firsts if he sees out the remaining two years of his contract with the Saints. Both of them will be aware of this which explains this extraordinary statement.

[Vortex]

And Vortex, I'm going to be concerned for your health and well being when the team sheet comes out next Thursday and shows Sharman in and Hayes only an emergency.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not in favour of this (if I had my druthers, Caminiti would be selected ahead of both of them). But I reckon that's what's going to happen.

I’ve been reliably told that Woodville have sent him his new jumper for next year.

[meher baba]

Higgins has kicked 92 goals at St.Kilda in 58 games and 38 this season.

According to the data I can access, Higgins has only kicked 35 goals this season, as well as 25 behinds.

He was out injured in rounds 17 and 18 and I think it's fair to say his form has deteriorated since then. In the 6 games he has played since then he has kicked 8 goals and 12 behinds, as opposed to 27 goals and 13 behinds in the first 15 games he played. It's a concern IMO. A goal sneak's main role is to kick goals and, ideally, he should also be able to lay plenty of tackles. Higgins (41 tackles from 21 games) is not a tackling machine like Butler (96 tackles in 23 games), and he is also a fair way behind Gresham (67 tackles in 22 games). And lately he hasn't been nailing many goals.

We currently have three small forwards plus two medium-sized ones in Owens and Philllipou. With Higgins struggling for form, Billings could perhaps provide something different to the mix. He's not likely to kick as many goals as Higgins at his best, but Higgins doesn't seem to be at his best.

However, as I have stated before, I fully expect Higgins to line up on Saturday week. Lyon clearly likes him and doesn't seem to rate Billings.

Cheers. That may be a typo. Check the data at the bottom of the post you quoted, I'm sure I wrote 35.25 there.

I see your point with Higgins, you have examples in his recent form to justify your point.

Could you apply the same argument to Billings now.

Other than just gifting him a game, which particular trait of his last 10 games would give you the confidence to pick him. I mean the ones for St.Kilda not Sandringham. Oh no, that's not fair, use his dominant match winning efforts at Sandy too then.

You're right, he's not been knocking down the door: his performance in his 3 games in the seniors year were reasonable but nothing more. His last game at Sandy seemed to me to show some improvement, but I suspect too little too late for Lyon.

But he's a solid, seasoned player who I reckon is guaranteed to deiiver something for us in a final. Higgins on the other hand is very much the little girl with the curl in big games. And he''s out of form and/or struggling with an injury. So replacing him with Billings could conceivably strengthen the side just a little bit. But, as I said, it isn't going to happen.

[meher baba]

Just for the record, Jack Billings in his 155 game career over 10 seasons has kicked 108 goals, 123 behinds.

Jack Higgins in 101 games over 6 years has kicked 121 goals, 91 behinds.

Higgins leaves Billings for dead, no way known he won't be selected next week.

You're not really comparing apples and apples, though.

Looking at it all a bit more thoroughly.

Goals: Billings 108 (0.7 per game) Higgins 121 (1.2 per game)
Behinds: Billings 123 (0.8 per game) Higgins: 91 (0.9 per game)
Goal assists: Billings 102 (0.7 per game) Higgins: 58 (0.6 per game)
Disposals: Billings 3186 (20.6 per game) Higgins 1476 (14.6 per game)
Inside 50s: Billings 523 (3.4 per game) Higgins 228 (2.3 per game)
Tackles: Billings 412 (2.7 per game) Higgins 209 (2.1 per game)
Rebound 50s: Billings 234 (1.5 per game) Higgins 39 (0.4)
Metres gained per game: Billings 276.2, Higgins 213.7

In short, Higgins plays mostly as a pure forward, whereas Billings also contributes a fair bit more in general play.

In that context, Higgins's 1.2 goals per game doesn't put him in the upper echelons of goal sneaks. Charlie Cameron averages 1.8 per game, as did Eddie Betts over his career. Tyson Stengle averages 1.6 (and 1.8 since he joined the Cats), Jamie Elliott averages 1.5 over a long career, etc. Stephen Milne averaged 2.1 per game, but he was exceptional.

On the other hand, Dan Butler too averages only 1.2 per game, but some of his other stats are stronger than Higgins's, particularly the number of tackles he makes.

So my conclusion is that Higgins is an ok goal sneak but not outstanding, and his accuracy with the easier set shots and other gimme opportunities continues to be a bit of a worry. Billings is a different sort of player and has performed reasonably well in that role over his career (but without ever developing into the superstar we'd hoped he would become), and in that context his goal-scoring record looks quite good.

So I beg to differ with your comment that Higgins leaves Billings for dead.

[Scollop]

Just for the record, Jack Billings in his 155 game career over 10 seasons has kicked 108 goals, 123 behinds.

Jack Higgins in 101 games over 6 years has kicked 121 goals, 91 behinds.

Higgins leaves Billings for dead, no way known he won't be selected next week.

You're not really comparing apples and apples, though.

Looking at it all a bit more thoroughly.

………

In short, Higgins plays mostly as a pure forward, whereas Billings also contributes a fair bit more in general play.

………

So I beg to differ with your comment that Higgins leaves Billings for dead.

Good points you make about the comparisons but for the sake of this thread (weapons up our sleeve) I believe JB in the position of small forward would be a better crumber and better at forward stoppages and a better set shot for goal. JB usually doesn’t drop chest marks either.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc- ... k-billings

In the last 4-5 years Billings set shot accuracy has improved. He’s kicked 44-35.

Right now…. I’d trust JB kicking for goal under pressure more than I would Higgo.

Would I have JB ahead of Byrnes or Clark or Pou? No I wouldn’t

[Sanctorum]

That's an impessive piece of analysis mb, and you're right, they'e not 'apples'.

Higgins and Billings perform vastly different roles for the team with the latter ostensibly a midfielder who has spent a lot of time on the wings, whereas Higgins is a specialist forward and is required to crumb and goal. And while Higgins is not up there with the Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron of the competition, overall I believe he has been more successful in his role than Billings has been in his.

One of Billings' problems is that he has had to carry the burden of being the #3 draft pick back in 2013 when in fact he has probably only ever reached the level of an average second rounder at best.

Two years ago the club in its 'wisdom' judged that Billings had the potential to improve his performance and signed him up for another 4 years, but injuries have dogged him since then and it remains to be seen if that was a reasonable call.

He reminds me a bit of Luke Dunstan who for years teased us with glimpses of great form, but lacked consistence and ultimately couldn't secure a permnanent spot in the team and let go.

[skeptic]

IMO, the comparison should be Billings v Gresh. Both essentially part time mids that sit forward for large parts of the game.

I have always been a huge advocate of Gresh and a bit more down on Billings but to be honest… have lost patience for the former and am wanting to consider the latter again.

Gresh lacks polish but I’ve always been happy to accept that when he regularly sunk the goals that mattered or made the big plays. Has been a pretty decent clutch player over the journey.
Whatever’s going on with him… that aspect of his game has evaporated as of late IMO.

Given that Billings generally is regarded as being more polished but less durable and perhaps not as tough/desperate… I’d have liked to see him play a bit more the last 2 weeks to see if he could force his way in

[Otiman]

Billings is a fringe player, at least this year. I can't foresee a damaging finals game from him. Get a full preseason, find his role and mojo, and let him loose. Needs to shadow Mason Wood for the next 6 months.

[Moods]

The long range forecast atm is for a little bit of rain on Saturday 9th September. Also some precipitation in the days leading up to this day plus...the days after

Therefore we have to assume it's going to be like a cake of soap. They need to practise handling a slippery footy.

Anyone like Sharman or Higgins who has a tendency to fall over, should only be considered if others are injured.

Hopefully lots of skills drills. We need to be sharp and focused. Lots of clean one grab handling of footies at our practice sessions.

I'd have Hayes ahead of Sharman if it's a wet day.

I'd have Billings ahead of Higgins.

Higgins game against Brisbane is probably indicative of what to expect. He crumbles under pressure way too often. I realise Higgo has been first 22, but stiff cheddar.

The long range forecast I looked at right now says 15 degrees and sunny…

[CQ SAINT]

I think.the real comparison should be Billings and Phillipou.
We can mould Phillipou over time.
Billings isn't a mid, isn't a goal kicking winger and he isn't a small forward and can't take close checking.
Listening to his manager trying desperately to get him off our list and onto the field was disturbing. I almost felt sorry for him
Then I thought about the money and hope we invested in him already. He is now very good depth

[Banger9798]

Prediction: NWM will go to a new level in finals

[Vortex]

Sounds like a lot of focus on the forward line.

I'm keen to see what we do in the midfield.

as is always the case, will be won in the midfield and we are in trouble if Ross doesn't get up, Mitch is cooked and the heat of the finals could just see him struggle to have any meaningful impact, same Pou. Windhager probably is still a bit raw too so who does that leave in terms of conditioned finals type bodies who can create something through the midfield....Gresh!

Come on down Gresh. you are in ya prime and looking to either show the coach you are built for finals or show your new club they wont be sorry if they pay you your asking price.

[saynta]

Prediction: NWM will go to a new level in finals

And Owens has a point to prove.

[nostalgicsaint]

Not sure where this Mitch is cooked narrative is coming from?

Last round: 17 touches, 6 tackles and 267m gained (5th in the team)