To play finals
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To play finals
We need to win 2 of our remaining 3 imo.
Next 2 weeks 50-50 propositions.
Saints vs Tiges
Saints vs Cats
Both being at marvel really brings us into the clash. We know we can really dominate the Tigers in patches and we've upset Geelong multiple times over the journey.
Lose one of them and we have to pinch the game against the Lions as an underdog. I reckon we're roughly a 1/3 proposition for that.
So currently we're a 58.33% chance to play finals if you accept the likelihoods I have shared above.
If we win against the tiges then we're a 66.67% chance.
If we lose then we're looking at a 16.67% chance.
All this a long winded way of sharing what we already know. This is a massive game!
Next 2 weeks 50-50 propositions.
Saints vs Tiges
Saints vs Cats
Both being at marvel really brings us into the clash. We know we can really dominate the Tigers in patches and we've upset Geelong multiple times over the journey.
Lose one of them and we have to pinch the game against the Lions as an underdog. I reckon we're roughly a 1/3 proposition for that.
So currently we're a 58.33% chance to play finals if you accept the likelihoods I have shared above.
If we win against the tiges then we're a 66.67% chance.
If we lose then we're looking at a 16.67% chance.
All this a long winded way of sharing what we already know. This is a massive game!
Disclaimer: posts are my views and shouldn't be taken as fact, even if I am in fact right.
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Re: To play finals
Hope they're paying attention to what Collingwood are doing to Geelong right now.
Think of me long enough to make a memory.
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Re: To play finals
We can lose to both Richmond and Brisbane. Provided we beat Geelong and all the other games are won by who are likely to be favourites we will finish 8th. Check out the ladder predictor.
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Re: To play finals
That is awesome news. I'll have a play around with it later.1965 Saint wrote: ↑Sat 12 Aug 2023 1:06am We can lose to both Richmond and Brisbane. Provided we beat Geelong and all the other games are won by who are likely to be favourites we will finish 8th. Check out the ladder predictor.
Disclaimer: posts are my views and shouldn't be taken as fact, even if I am in fact right.
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- Saintsational Legend
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Re: To play finals
Can’t see it
Watching Cats tonight - even if we get over Tigers ….have we looked like beating 2 on the trot really ?
Get the picks
Sanders at 8 …kinda young gun mid we need
Watching Cats tonight - even if we get over Tigers ….have we looked like beating 2 on the trot really ?
Get the picks
Sanders at 8 …kinda young gun mid we need
“Yeah….nah””
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Re: To play finals
Zero chance, the que went in the rack for Ross weeks ago, he’s got his eyes on trade time and the pre season.
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Re: To play finals
Chris Scott agrees with Vortex. Can't take those opinions lightly.
Chris thinks Cats won't have to rely on umpiring errors either.
Chris seemed a bit down in his presser. Almost sorry for himself.
Vort has the confidence of youth.
With the weight of their A grade tossers opinions our club might need to consider if it's worth even turning up.
Chris thinks Cats won't have to rely on umpiring errors either.
Chris seemed a bit down in his presser. Almost sorry for himself.
Vort has the confidence of youth.
With the weight of their A grade tossers opinions our club might need to consider if it's worth even turning up.
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Re: To play finals
He knows I'm never wrong, we speak weekly, only the sharpest of minds can assess these situations when dealing with the highly complex organism that is Aussie Rules football, very complex.Yorkeys wrote: ↑Sat 12 Aug 2023 8:27am Chris Scott agrees with Vortex. Can't take those opinions lightly.
Chris thinks Cats won't have to rely on umpiring errors either.
Chris seemed a bit down in his presser. Almost sorry for himself.
Vort has the confidence of youth.
With the weight of their A grade tossers opinions our club might need to consider if it's worth even turning up.
My sample size for our finals chances was last nights game compared to the footy we have been dishing up for the past few months, specifically our games against, WCE, North, Hawks and Carlton, very high quality performances, as Scollop would say, blind Freddy can tell.
All eyes now turn to our trade performance and list management now the "exploration" is almost complete.
But don't let that stop you enjoying some slap N tickle over the next 3 games.
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Re: To play finals
Must admit I'm prone to stuffing up probability at times. My logic below.
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Game 1 + Game 2: (0.5) * (0.5) = 0.25
Game 1 + Game 3: (0.5) * (0.3333) ≈ 0.16665
Game 2 + Game 3: (0.5) * (0.3333) ≈ 0.16665
Total probability of winning 2 out of 3 games = 0.25 + 0.16665 + 0.16665 ≈ 0.5833 (or 58.33%)
58.33% considering all possible combinations of winning 2 out of 3 games.
Disclaimer: posts are my views and shouldn't be taken as fact, even if I am in fact right.
- King Max
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Re: To play finals
On the vibe of the thing, if our probabilities of winning are 1/2 1/2 1/3 then it would seem unlikely that we would win 2 or more so it shouldn’t be more than 50%.
In probability terms there are three events and eight outcomes but you are treating it as two events. You have ignored the possibility of winning all three and have effectively counted that three times.
In probability terms there are three events and eight outcomes but you are treating it as two events. You have ignored the possibility of winning all three and have effectively counted that three times.
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Re: To play finals
The bookies don't seem to have odds for our Lions game yet but their probabilities for Tiges & Cats games are .546 and .423, so close to your calcs for Game 1 + Game 2?
I wonder how/if the outcome of the first effects probability of the subsequent events.
I wonder how/if the outcome of the first effects probability of the subsequent events.
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Re: To play finals
Very fair.King Max wrote: ↑Sat 12 Aug 2023 10:37am On the vibe of the thing, if our probabilities of winning are 1/2 1/2 1/3 then it would seem unlikely that we would win 2 or more so it shouldn’t be more than 50%.
In probability terms there are three events and eight outcomes but you are treating it as two events. You have ignored the possibility of winning all three and have effectively counted that three times.
Disclaimer: posts are my views and shouldn't be taken as fact, even if I am in fact right.