Playing finals

[Killa]

The old story was that to win premierships you had to consistently play finals

And to be competitive playing those finals (so not just making up the numbers but a genuine chance in all finals matches)

So, to me at least, playing finals is read in context of the above

The question even this far out in 2023, so entering May, is where are we positioned

Which side’s currently outside the 8 will make a push to enter the 8?

We have beaten the sides currently sitting 9 and 10, plus those sitting 13 and 14

We have not played the sides sitting 11, 12, 15, 16, 17 or 18 so far, some of which we play twice

So, from here, we have to beat the sides currently outside the 8, maximising our current advantage over them

And take a scalp or 2 among those currently sitting within the 8 - including to establish our credentials

In terms of who we play twice, you could put that we are better advantaged over 2022

But every week is a new challenge and, as they say, one week at a time

But results such as GC (who we have beaten) beating Richmond assist - and if we then beat Richmond that advantage over Richmond is enhanced

So a weather eye is kept on other results, those results lifting the pressure on St Kilda to enhance our position

On to NM, who will be stinging and who will respond to that sting

[The_Dud]

Going off the season so far, I think we have another 7 pencilled in wins, plus many more very winnable games.

We have an easy draw and finals are there for the taking.

[B.M]

I never pencil in any wins

If we can win more than 12 it’ll be a good effort!

[Killa]

Stating fact and the opportunity that awaits

Where exactly are wins pencilled in?

[SaintPav]

Tracking towards 14 wins according to Pav’s finals predictor model ^TM

[skeptic]

Let’s have a look…

You’d think we’d beat Nth (x2), Hawthorn (x2) and GWS
Would be a good chance at knocking off Richmond (x2)
Have a return fixture v Goldcoast and Carlton

It’s certainly an easier draw

We have Melbourne and Brisbane at Marvel… Adelaide at Adelaide…

Harder games left are away games v Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Geelong

[Saintmike65]

Where we finish will depend on how we can improve our forward 50 efficiency.
Currently ranked 17th, if We can become more of a threat forward of centre, this will go a long way in allowing us to compete against the big boys.
I’d love to see the King/ Caminiti combo..thus releasing Mitch to be a mid and resting forward.

[Otiman]

There is a clear top 6 at this stage of the season, and we are in it.

The question on us is are we top 4 or not by the end of the season.

We don't get much of an audit for the rest of the season, playing North, Richmond, GC, Hawthorn twice.

Of our last 4 games, we could drop 3 of them so could drop from 1st to 5th in that time.

That is the critical part of the year for us (rounds 21-24) where we play Carlton, Brisbane and Geelong in a 4 game stretch.

Up until then I have us dropping 3 games - Sydney, Adelaide, Melbourne.

At round 20 we will have 15 wins, which would be good enough for top 2 any time in the last 5-6 years.

By the same metric, 16 wins at the end of the season should be top 4.

So if we win one out of Carlton, Brisbane, Geelong, and Richmond - we finish top 4.

Of course we are likely to snag a win where I've said we'd drop games, but equally likely to lose one i've locked us in for.

The problem lies where we snag a top 4 spot, limp into the finals, and go out in straight sets.

[SinCitySainter]

I believe we are a 6 to 9 side and I am fairly happy with that.
I think there are a number of teams who are clearly better than us, Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane and Port.
We fall into the next block of sides with Carlton, Western Bulldogs and Sydney.

We got over Freo but were definitely unconvincing in doing so and they have been pretty horrible since.
Good win over the Doggies who have improved since we played them but we were able to shut own their forward line.
Solid win against Essendon, comfortable wins against Carlton and Gold Coast.
Fairly even with Collingwood in a game where both sides looked a little like headless chooks, under 12s footy everyone around the ball.
We were lucky that the margin against Port was not larger, except for the first quarter we were well beaten in the rest of the game by a better side.

So hopefully we make the bottom half of the eight and play at least one final any more than that I feel is a bonus.
I do not hold out much hope of us going deep into September this year.

[Vortex]

North have matched up on us well enough to be capable of winning most recent matches between our sides.

For some reason even when we've been in good form we've struggled against North and the games have been frustrating in terms of being able to put them away easily.

I think this is a danger game.

[The_Dud]

The way I see it if the trend of rounds 1-7 continue.

Should win:
North x2
Hawks x2
Eagles
Tigers x2

50/50:
GWS
Suns
Blues

Underdogs:
Lions x2
Crows
Swans
Dees
Cats


So averaging them out gives us 8-9 more wins, giving us 13-14 for the year, which should mean finals (unless we have a horrible percentage)

If we keep improving with players coming back and young blokes getting better I could see us winning all the 50/50 games and maybe snagging a couple more vs Lions at Marvel, maybe Swans, maybe Dees? So best case maybe 11-12 more wins giving us 16-17 for the year which probably means top 4, but this is a long shot IMO.

So in conclusion, finals should be the realistic goal from here, missing would be a disappointment IMO.