Luck of the Draw?

[bangaulegend]

Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.

It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)

Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1

Swans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.

Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.

The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.

I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.

Very very optimistic

Not really - just going by the data. Empirically based prediction.
This week we play the Dockers here - v good recent record against them - won 7 of 11 - and 2 of those four losses were by 6 points or less.
Week after - Bulldogs at Docklands - won 3 out of last 4 including a final.
Then Eagles in Perth - currently sitting second last with two wins and a % of 55.
Hawks back at Docklands again - won our last 4 against them, and 5 out of 7. Three of those wins was by well over 10 goals.
Geelong at Geelong - okay, loss.
Brisbane at Dockands - probably lose that one, although winnable here.
Swans - here in Melbourne - beaten them easily the last two seasons, of course they have beaten us too, but it is our last home game of the season and I like us here combined with their recent inconsistency turns the game in our favour.

5 out of 7 simples.

A very positive out look for sure not sure it's realistic but hey live for the moment . Every game is winnable but also losable . I'm a one week at a time supporter reassess after a win or a loss . I don't look too far ahead because reality has taught me if you get too far ahead of yourself you are destined for disappointment

[The_Dud]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

Haha, I don't think you realise who you're talking to!

[shanegrambeau]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

Haha, I don't think you realise who you're talking to!

He's got a point...or had a point...

Samurai, correvt me if I am wrong.

Only recently has Carlton had to go there...

Between 1998 and 2017....That is 20 seasons!...Carlton had to go down there 0 times. 25 games and never at Kardinia Park.

Collingwood has not been there once this century

[Saintmatt]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

I note the Premiers are playing at the bowling alley this week ...

[CURLY]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

The point is and you can name Essendon in that. Our draw is much harder than these teams every year. A team like Collingwood who we are competing with for a spot in the 8 don't go to Geelong. Dont go to Perth twice.

[D.B.Cooper]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

The point is and you can name Essendon in that. Our draw is much harder than these teams every year. A team like Collingwood who we are competing with for a spot in the 8 don't go to Geelong. Dont go to Perth twice.

Boo hoo, everyone from the umpires to the AFL are against us, it is just blatant cheating blah, blah, blah.
Pathetic whinging!
FFS harden the f#ck up!

If you are good enough, you get there, if not you make excuses and bitch and moan.
Every elite sportsperson or businessperson I have encountered has faced adversity and thrived on the challenge and succeeded.
Then there are those who don't hit the standard but blame others and make excuses.

It is like barracking for the results of other matches to fall your way.

Control your own destiny, be concerned with what is within your control - your performance.
F#ck everything else.

Until we are an anywhere, anytime performer we will not be successful, and whingers will make excuses and bitch and moan.

[CURLY]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

The point is and you can name Essendon in that. Our draw is much harder than these teams every year. A team like Collingwood who we are competing with for a spot in the 8 don't go to Geelong. Dont go to Perth twice.

Boo hoo, everyone from the umpires to the AFL are against us, it is just blatant cheating blah, blah, blah.
Pathetic whinging!
FFS harden the f#ck up!

If you are good enough, you get there, if not you make excuses and bitch and moan.
Every elite sportsperson or businessperson I have encountered has faced adversity and thrived on the challenge and succeeded.
Then there are those who don't hit the standard but blame others and make excuses.

It is like barracking for the results of other matches to fall your way.

Control your own destiny, be concerned with what is within your control - your performance.
F#ck everything else.

Until we are an anywhere, anytime performer we will not be successful, and whingers will make excuses and bitch and moan.

Yep all well and good the issue is we have to be better than others simply because of the draw.

[asiu]

yep
better than

the draw
the umps
afl house
the tribunal
the fixture
other mobs
father sons
curses
debt
bad coaches
bad administrators
social issues

everyone involved basically

'n especially our own cheese eating surrender monkeys
incapable of holding the line

''n thats before
we worry about other footy sides
and their dodgy shite


easy.

[The Fireman]

yep
better than

the draw
the umps
afl house
the tribunal
the fixture
other mobs
father sons
curses
debt
bad coaches
bad administrators
social issues

everyone involved basically

'n especially our own cheese eating surrender monkeys
incapable of holding the line

''n thats before
we worry about other footy sides
and their dodgy shite


easy.

it's all such a worry

[mr six o'clock]

I'd rather have a tough draw cos if we're good enough to make finals then we're a chance to win the GF.

[The_Dud]

Yep, I'd love to hear an example of a team who didn't win the premiership because of a 'tough draw'.

Also we've been handed favours in this draw, like playing Brisbane off a bye while they're off 6 days and playing in Perth, and playing a rubbish teams like Essendon, and we haven't taken advantage of these and have no one to blame (although the excuses makers always try to find something) but ourselves.

[CURLY]

I'd rather have a tough draw cos if we're good enough to make finals then we're a chance to win the GF.

I'd rather it and even playing field.

[CURLY]

Yep, I'd love to hear an example of a team who didn't win the premiership because of a 'tough draw'.

Also we've been handed favours in this draw, like playing Brisbane off a bye while they're off 6 days and playing in Perth, and playing a rubbish teams like Essendon, and we haven't taken advantage of these and have no one to blame (although the excuses makers always try to find something) but ourselves.

Yep massive favours. Was that game v Brisbane at Marvel?

[asiu]

isn't our 22 draw
set into creation by 21's finished ladder position ?

does our draw not follow the formula ?

[D.B.Cooper]

yep
better than

the draw
the umps
afl house
the tribunal
the fixture
other mobs
father sons
curses
debt
bad coaches
bad administrators
social issues

everyone involved basically

'n especially our own cheese eating surrender monkeys
incapable of holding the line

''n thats before
we worry about other footy sides
and their dodgy shite


easy.

Cheese eating surrender monkeys

[asiu]

haha

ended up channeling Barks there towards the end

the flow of the rant sorta demands it

[D.B.Cooper]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

The point is and you can name Essendon in that. Our draw is much harder than these teams every year. A team like Collingwood who we are competing with for a spot in the 8 don't go to Geelong. Dont go to Perth twice.

Boo hoo, everyone from the umpires to the AFL are against us, it is just blatant cheating blah, blah, blah.
Pathetic whinging!
FFS harden the f#ck up!

If you are good enough, you get there, if not you make excuses and bitch and moan.
Every elite sportsperson or businessperson I have encountered has faced adversity and thrived on the challenge and succeeded.
Then there are those who don't hit the standard but blame others and make excuses.

It is like barracking for the results of other matches to fall your way.

Control your own destiny, be concerned with what is within your control - your performance.
F#ck everything else.

Until we are an anywhere, anytime performer we will not be successful, and whingers will make excuses and bitch and moan.

Yep all well and good the issue is we have to be better than others simply because of the draw.

If life is dishing you up too much cucumber Curly, you could consider inequity aversion therapy

[Yorkeys]

Our fixture is a pile of s***. Games in Geelong which Carlton and Collingwood never have to worry about.

Calton beat Geelong at Geelong in 2020 by 2 points. No excuses.

The point is and you can name Essendon in that. Our draw is much harder than these teams every year. A team like Collingwood who we are competing with for a spot in the 8 don't go to Geelong. Dont go to Perth twice.

Boo hoo, everyone from the umpires to the AFL are against us, it is just blatant cheating blah, blah, blah.
Pathetic whinging!
FFS harden the f#ck up!

If you are good enough, you get there, if not you make excuses and bitch and moan.
Every elite sportsperson or businessperson I have encountered has faced adversity and thrived on the challenge and succeeded.
Then there are those who don't hit the standard but blame others and make excuses.

It is like barracking for the results of other matches to fall your way.

Control your own destiny, be concerned with what is within your control - your performance.
F#ck everything else.

Until we are an anywhere, anytime performer we will not be successful, and whingers will make excuses and bitch and moan.

Reads a bit like management 101. However what you say does not reflect reality. Why are there lobbyists, political bribes/donations and the ongoing quest for monopoly/oligopoly/gerrymander scenarios if success does not rely on tilting the circumstances in your favour. Why the use of "mental disintegration" techniques by elite athletes. The Olympic spirit and sportsmanship in profession sports are largely myths to con the unwary.

The draw assumes sides will be competitive within certain ranges. North and for a lot of the season WCE were not/are not close to being in that competitive range. Sides that play them twice have a big advantage because of how tight the ladder will be at season's end.

Saying umpiring decisions do not impact games is also wrong. See chaos theory, or Geelong not being penalised in the opposition's goal square for obvious HTB. Umpiring does not change the relative abilities of sides but it certainly changes plays, and plays change games.

Playing in Cairns in the wet is not something the great majority of final contenders have to do. It may have been self inflicted, but its not part of a "level" draw.

Getting to the finals is important because of the experience, profile and revenue benefits. We have an uphill battle because we are not a top 4 side yet but to scrabble for the remaining crumbs we don't need structural obstacles like the 22 draw.

Its not whinging to acknowledge facts. If you don't understand the environment your in then how can you properly manage what you have.

[asiu]

ps

i forgot

milestone games
messiahs
teachers pet-ism
general defeat-ism
all other isms
the wrong cows
not enough primetime
or way too much primetime
...depends

nappies for the best of us

[samuraisaint]

Assuming Richmond beat WC today and take the Saint's place in the eight,
below is a list on how many times each of the top nine teams plays other teams currently out of the eight.
From memory this follows on from very difficult draws in the 2 previous years.
This puts us at a handicap of maybe 2 games against a team like Geelong who gets to play North and West Coast twice.

It is quite apparent that the Saints have copped the worst fixture on top of our eight matches out of Melbourne (7 interstate and 1 in Geelong)

Geel 4
Bris 4
Syd 4
Rich 4
Freo 3
Coll 3
Carl 2
Melb 2
StK 1

Swans, Brisbane and Fremantle all should be wins to us at home.
Hawthorn are a bottom team and we play them at home as well.

Plus we play the second bottom team in the Eagles - we play them in Perth but we should still win that.

The Dogs are having a down year as well, so that's 50/50.

I think conservatively we win 5 from last 7.

Very very optimistic

Not really - just going by the data. Empirically based prediction.
This week we play the Dockers here - v good recent record against them - won 7 of 11 - and 2 of those four losses were by 6 points or less.
Week after - Bulldogs at Docklands - won 3 out of last 4 including a final.
Then Eagles in Perth - currently sitting second last with two wins and a % of 55.
Hawks back at Docklands again - won our last 4 against them, and 5 out of 7. Three of those wins was by well over 10 goals.
Geelong at Geelong - okay, loss.
Brisbane at Dockands - probably lose that one, although winnable here.
Swans - here in Melbourne - beaten them easily the last two seasons, of course they have beaten us too, but it is our last home game of the season and I like us here combined with their recent inconsistency turns the game in our favour.

5 out of 7 simples.

A very positive out look for sure not sure it's realistic but hey live for the moment . Every game is winnable but also losable . I'm a one week at a time supporter reassess after a win or a loss . I don't look too far ahead because reality has taught me if you get too far ahead of yourself you are destined for disappointment

Just the facts ma'am.
And I have another - Brisbane have only beaten us in Melbourne once at Docklands since 2000. That is like our record at Kardinia Park. If I was a Brisbane supporter, no way would I have this game pencilled in as a definite win.

[Gershwin]

Nothing wrong with playing the teams we are competing with for finals spots. Can only blame ourselves if we don’t make finals.

[The Fireman]

If we kick more goals than the opposition for the rest of the year we’ll make finals
And win the flag






Just ask Ernie

[SaintPav]

Supporters are entitled to complain somewhat, especially on a football forum.

Complaining is a human right.

It’s different for players because they have control over the outcome while supporters don’t. It’s a release.

But you don’t want to use too much salt or sugar for that matter.

[The_Dud]

Yep, I'd love to hear an example of a team who didn't win the premiership because of a 'tough draw'.

Also we've been handed favours in this draw, like playing Brisbane off a bye while they're off 6 days and playing in Perth, and playing a rubbish teams like Essendon, and we haven't taken advantage of these and have no one to blame (although the excuses makers always try to find something) but ourselves.

Yep massive favours. Was that game v Brisbane at Marvel?

No, that's in round 22.

Though I understand 'fair' in your book would mean playing them in Melbourne both times.

[CURLY]

Yep, I'd love to hear an example of a team who didn't win the premiership because of a 'tough draw'.

Also we've been handed favours in this draw, like playing Brisbane off a bye while they're off 6 days and playing in Perth, and playing a rubbish teams like Essendon, and we haven't taken advantage of these and have no one to blame (although the excuses makers always try to find something) but ourselves.

Yep massive favours. Was that game v Brisbane at Marvel?

No, that's in round 22.

Though I understand 'fair' in your book would mean playing them in Melbourne both times.

So it was hardly a huge advantage was it.