The Mongrel Punt Review...Josh Eddy.

[saynta]

A week is a long time in football, but for the North Melbourne football club, it must have seemed like a decade. Not just any decade either, but one where disasters popped up with unprecedented regularity, and absurdity became the norm. Like the one we’re in now, I guess.
The lead up

The media frenzy around North Melbourne has provided North with the sort of exposure that not even North’s 9-0 start to the 2016 season could have achieved, which just proves the old adage true that “winners are grinners, and losers can suffer half-baked articles from footy journos that can’t be bothered to pick up a phone and fact-check”.

North’s head office desperately tried to take control of the narrative by putting Captain Jack Ziebell in front of every camera that ventured into the greater 3051 post code, pumping up his 250th career game as a way to push the other articles out of the limelight, but without some sort of scandal or pyrotechnics, it was always going to take more than a few pics of him and his daughter to shift the focus.

St Kilda, on the other hand, have had a week of sunshine and rainbows by comparison, beginning with the announcement that they have officially broken their all-time membership record with over 55,832 people proving that hope springs eternal.

Coupled with the news that Jack Hayes has signed on for two more years after doing his ACL earlier on gives the Saints a little more security in the long-term. You’d have to think the deal was a fairly good one for the Saints too, as a bloke on one leg can hardly play hardball. It might sound a little unfair to suggest clubs take advantage of an injury to pay bottom dollar, but players likewise take advantage of peaks in form to command top-price, so it’s all in the timing.

North came into the game in the bizarre position of feeling fairly positive after only going down to Narrm/Melbourne by 47 points while St Kilda’s superb final quarter heroics against Adelaide showed that they have the ability to match and exceed the intensity of their opponents at their home or any ground.

No one would have tipped North here, and the final result will bear that out as both logical and sensible, but it’s not all negative for the Kangaroos, while the Saints also took a lot out of the game, despite it being little more than match-sim practice for them.
The opening:

Jack Ziebell took the toss for his 250th game in the blue and white. With a 50/50 chance, he came up with the goods, prompting celebrations for the North faithful that had made it to the match.

The opening play was the sort of statement North needed to make, as Goldstein controlled the tap, but St Kilda’s engine room came away with possession, but as McKenzie was looking to create an opening and find a runner, Anderson and Goldstein shut him down with a solid tackle that showed a level of commitment that has been missing from their senior players of late.

From the first bounce, North showed a bit. Anderson and Goldstein crashing into McKenzie within the first few seconds to stop a centre break was a positive initial statement. There’s been a lot of valid criticism recently on North’s disposal quality and improving that will take time. What should be immediate is a commitment to playing aggressive, hard football, and a hunger for the contest.

St Kilda managed to push the ball forward and trap it in their forward 50, causing a boundary throw in. Lachie Young attempted to clear the ball, but it was Daniel McKenzie who managed to get first hands to it, skilfully delaying taking possession to avoid a tackle by Curtis Taylor, ducking under a tackle, backing out and then putting in a long one-step shot that will play very well during the game review session on Monday.

North still had a point to prove though, responding quickly from a centre break that included Goldstein wrong-footing Ryder, the ball scrambling to Cam Zurhaar in the pocket. Zurhaar then did his trademark zig-zag before snapping on his right for North’s first.

During much of the first quarter, every North player was looking to hold the ball a little longer and take the game on, a departure from the recent tactics of blindly blasting from packs, while St Kilda kept to a wider structure that shut down passing lanes around congestion but allowed players with the ball a little space to balk and run the ball.

Former Kangaroo Mason Wood switched to the wing for the next bounce and managed to rebound an attempt from Jy Simpkin to clear the ball out of the St Kilda attacking zone with a direct kick aimed in the direction of Max King.

You know when you have a mate throw something to you and it’s like you just know where it’s going to land the second it’s out of their palm? You put your hand in the path a second or two ahead of time and the can of baby corn you’re adding to your stir-fry just lands in your palm at the end of fully extended arms with a satisfyingly safe ‘clunk’ that causes admiring nods from mates and a sharp intake of breath from envious onlookers? The sort of nonchalant catch that says “this here is someone who is blessed by Apollo the god of Archery and throwing tin cans, and will lead this nation to great success and bear many children”? Yeah, that was the mark King took here.

King jumped, reaching his arm up into the sky as if daring Zeus himself to deny his celestial heritage, trapping the ball with one mighty palm and gathering it and claiming the ball as his own, to be shared with no-one else.

North once again exploded from the centre clearance, through a clever kick from Jason Horne-Francis to Anderson who found Goldstein in the pocket, snapping around the corner to bring up North’s second.

St Kilda’s next goal came from some brilliant tactics as Paddy Ryder tapped down to a running Seb Ross who burst through the pack, balked Flynn Perez, burned off Horne-Francis and stayed just far enough in front of Davies-Uniacke to kick a long ball from 70 to the top of the square. The players on both sides had moved up towards the ball, and in the mad rush to collect it they all fell short as King fended off Walker, protecting him from a clean run to defend the ball and ensuring Walker’s dive would prove agonisingly short, allowing the ball to spill through for a monster goal.

Paddy Ryder and Tim Membrey added to the St Kilda total, giving St Kilda a three-goal lead into the first break.
The middle

The second quarter was a tight contest, though mostly in St Kilda’s forward half. A single goal to Shaman from a strong lead-up mark was the only major of the quarter, but it was only the desperate defence from North and their half-forwards and wings flooding back that prevented the margin from increasing even further.

St Kilda continued to apply gradual pressure to North, with Sinclair, Gresham and Ross working the ball out of the contest seemingly at will.

On the occasions where North did surge forward, they’d miss shots that should have been easy goals, such as Ziebell’s two kicks for goal in the early second quarter that could have had his side back in the contest, before converting a third. Even the usually-reliable Cam Zurhaar failed to make the most of his opportunities, missing an easy one from 15 metres out.

Wanganeen-Milera had some incredible plays where he dribbled the ball forward along the boundary to find a teammate, somehow even managing to control the tumble so that it sat up just as the player was taking possession. I’m not saying the kid might be a wizard, but I’m not discounting the possibility either. NWM also had a four-bounce run along the boundary that brought a roar from the crowd and stayed tantalisingly out of reach of a chasing Curtis Taylor.

Those sorts of runs are something the chasing player hates. If they burn you off early, you can run over to a nearby opponent and claim you’re picking them up to shut down a passing option, but when they’re so close, just out of reach, teammates up ahead go to their player instead of coming up to the ball, which means Taylor had to keep chasing. He was spent at the end of the run, while NWM looked like he had barely broken into third gear.

After the Ziebell goal, St Kilda piled on goals through Gresham, King and a pair to Owens to put the game to bed half way through the third quarter. Owen’s first was also the first of his career, and came off the back of Kane Turner spilling an easy intercept right into his hands, and snapping off a step with the sort of class and poise that belied his two-game career. And just to prove he wasn’t all about charity, he backed it up thirty seconds later with a clever, opportunistic soccer from a spilled forward 50 tackle.

A slight bit of hope may have still been in the air for the Kangaroos when Goldstein seemed to forget he’s a ruckman and flew like an eagle instead of an ostrich to take a riding pack mark over former-teammate Mason Woods that he can be justifiably proud of. I can imagine he’s printed off copies already and sent them to Xerri and Callum Coleman-Jones, just to reinforce his position at top dog of the North big men. If he’s feeling a bit cheeky, he may even send one to Hamish McIntosh, Daniel Currie, Braydon Preuss and Mason Woods too.

But, Goldy’s highlight and any momentum from it was short-lived. Max King showed that he knew a bit about big man forward craft himself, getting a quick response and taking his side into the last break with a 49 point advantage.
Coasting to the line

With the game decided, St Kilda knew they just had to maintain the pressure and North would be counting down the minutes before the siren.

North decided to show some fight though, and put two quick goals on the board through Anderson and Curtis to create a small bit of momentum from the first sequential goals of the game for the Kangaroos, but as happened all night, St Kilda responded quickly with two on the trot to Hill and Marshall. At times it seemed like St Kilda were looking to share the ball around and hit up players that needed a bit of confidence boost rather than aim solely for King or Membrey. It almost looked like a pub pool game, where you’d leave one of your balls sitting just in front of the pocket, knowing you could tap it in later if no other shots were available.

As the game petered out, the North squad looked resigned and tired while the Saints were buoyed by their dominant effort, and understanding that they’d moved into the top four, once Collingwood helped them out by defeating Carlton.
The stats that matter

The possession numbers reflected the dominance St Kilda had. 384-309 in touches, with a lot of North’s possession coming in the back half as they swung their balls left and right like a 100M sprinter with satin boxers on.

Inside 50s also showed the St Kilda’s attacking power, 58-34, but it was the tackles inside 50 that really told the story. St Kilda held a 14-8 advantage while the tackles for the match were mostly even. The hunger of the St Kilda forwards created opportunities that North couldn’t cover, and kept the defenders scrambling.

A surprising stat is that North won the clearance battle convincingly. 45 clearances to 31, and winning centre clearances 14-10 and stoppages 31-21. Unfortunately for North, they also lead turnovers significantly, which is expected when they’re struggling to get space at the coalface, and with teammates crowding around (I’ll go into that a bit later).
Ruck battle

North have favoured Xerri as their main ruck, but Goldstein has had a great run of form lately. In this match he won almost half of his ruck battles (30 from 63) while Xerri only managed 17 from 47.

Ryder and Marshall combined very well, with Ryder matching Goldstein nicely to amass 27 taps from 57 ruck contests, and Marshall’s 21 from 53.

The key stat here though was taps to advantage, where St Kilda combined for 17 to North’s 10. The ability of the St Kilda mids to work with their ruck and read the opposition ruckman was almost clairvoyant, and a testament to the time put into forming a cohesive unit in the group.
Walker vs King

Josh Walker is often unfairly maligned in this squad. He’s plugging more holes than a little Dutch boy at a dyke, going forward, back or in the ruck depending on what is needed that week.

With McKay still out with a knee injury, Walker was required to match up on the 21-year-old King. The stat sheet shows that Walker gives up about two inches to King, but has a few kilos on him. I can only think that the weigh in must have been a lot earlier in the season, because King has put on enough muscle to rag-doll Walker on more than one occasion. Walker wasn’t helped by his teammates regularly deciding to “help out” in the same way that an annoying friend might help you fix your car, only for it to make the whole thing worse.

Young, Corr and Hayden all tried to help Walker in his battle with King, but often did little more than stifle his movement and ability to leap into the contest. They put on half-blocks for their own man, which gave King that heartbeat he needed to set himself and throw Walker away from the drop of the ball or to push off and find space with a lead.

The more he did it, the more Walker’s teammates tried to help out.

This is where backline leadership may have helped contain the damage. An established player could reset the structure to give Walker a chance to make a genuine attempt to contest the ball, while the others maintained enough distance to collect the crumbs.

That, of course, is assuming that King left anything to be spilled.

Even in optimal conditions, it would take Walker’s absolute best to deny King. His athleticism for a bloke his size is uncanny, and with Membrey, Woods and exciting youngster Marcus Winhager in support and leading in directions away from his lane, St Kilda forced North’s besieged defenders to make quick calls on who and how to cover.

King’s three goals put him in equal-second on the Coleman ladder, five behind Charlie Curnow and level with Jeremy Cameron. He’s well within striking range though and will have his chances if St Kilda’s form continues.


North’s tactical issues

When David Noble talks about small wins, he’s talking about building up the team’s ability to create scoring opportunities while denying those same opportunities to the opposition.

So, simple but not easy.

In the last season and a half, North has been steadily building towards this.

Yeah, I know, sounds laughable when the team is getting belted each week, but stay with me.

The possession-style of footy that Noble is instituting in North is like building a tower out of blocks. Last season, they’d put together one or two blocks before the tower fell over. Then it was three or four, but they’d have to support the tower’s base with five or six more, so no blocks were left to make the tower higher.

Now, in the last few weeks, finally we’re seeing North try and make a tall tower that can stand on its own.

Earlier in this season and for most of last season, North could not trust their teammates to win their own ball. As a result, the team would have five or six players at the contest, and then when they came away with the ball they’d run into an encirclement of opponents that would make WW2 sim-gamers smile. There were no short options to handball to that weren’t also covered, and no options in that vital 5-10 metres away zone that would provide the space and time for an effective possession chain.

That’s slowly changing.

Players are now able to let their teammates have a bit more trust to win their own ball, but it’s still not enough to create the space needed, but they’re also starting to trust themselves to actually push through the traffic. LDU, Anderson, Simpkin and even Goldstein were able to showcase some ankle-breaking pack busting in this game. As that becomes more common, other players will move away from the player with the ball, creating options for short passes that will actually make those line-breaking runs less necessary, yet more effective as defenders also spread to cover the passing lanes.

It’s still not working the way they want, but the centre clearances were significantly in North’s favour in this match. They’re starting to get time around the ball. Next up, they need to actually use that time to make smarter decisions, and they must improve their forward-50 entries and back-50 exits.

It’s no small thing, but in a midfield-out rebuild, getting the engine room right was always the first priority. Now that that is finally showing some progress, they can work on the spine and potentially move up the scale of competence from “pretty shithouse” to “Oh hey, I think we might have won that quarter”.

There’s still plenty of pain to come before they’ll enter a match as favourites, but 2024 isn’t so far away.
St Kilda’s youth

Owens, Winghager, and Wanganeen-Milera are all under 20 years old, and had some highlight-reel-worthy moments. Wanganeen-Milera in particular looked positively joyful as he burned along the wing, taking bounce after bounce and showing his dash and dare. In an era where rebounding attacks have become one of the most potent weapons in the game, Nasiah’s ability might prove to be worth more than gold to the Saints.

Add in their 21-25 bracket that includes King, Paton, Battle, Higgins and Gresham and you can see why there’s a buzz at the Saints. They have an excellent mix of talent, speed, size and X-factor in their young brigade, and if the footy community at large is still taking a wait-and-see approach, well that’s understandable, but there’s plenty there to justify Saints fans to think about upgrading their membership to include finals tickets for a few years to come.
Where North is going?

Now, having a dig at North has become something of an easy way to fill column inches lately. We’ve seen some prominent football personalities invent incredible fantasy epics based on years-old information and inference, and in some cases simply making something up just because they know that North’s woes will get the clicks from supporters who are just glad that their own team’s problems aren’t in the same league as the Kangas’.

North’s current situation has been a long time coming. Not so long ago, they were looking down the barrel of merging or relocating, not due to lack of success, but due to lack of cash. Premierships in 96 and 99 along with legendary figures and innovative approaches weren’t enough to balance the books, so they were vulnerable to talk of dissolving the team as we know it.

The situation at the moment is almost the opposite. The team is largely forgettable to most casual footy-watchers, the on-field successes are barely perceptible, and they’ve become something of a whipping-boy for a media machine that will blame them for a small crowd, even while playing the reigning premiers who should have no problem attracting more than 13,000 to a game on their own.

But, importantly, North has cash. They’ve managed to balance their budget and even turn it into a surplus, pay off debt and are in the process of expanding their facilities in conjunction with the state government and as part of a huge redevelopment of the Arden Street precinct.

Moving North makes no practical sense. The arguments for it fall apart at the first business case examination.

A small supporter base will be further reduced if the team moves. Victorian-based sponsors will also see it as a less-attractive solution, not to mention the penalties for breaking tenancy agreements with the Victorian government. Offsetting these losses will be difficult with a Tasmanian public that would much rather their own bespoke side and will likely be slow to embrace a compromise in a relocated team, and without that, sponsors will also be difficult to entice.

And the on-field situation is unlikely to improve either. While plenty of players may enjoy the change in scenery, it’s also likely that several would rather head back to their home state or remain in Victoria.

Then, there are the facilities. North’s are on the improve, Tasmania would have to build new ones, requiring loans and government support.

So you’d end up taking a team with money, no debt, taking no extra AFL assistance, with built facilities that are being upgraded and long-term agreements to keep the club secure in terms of finances and facilities, and taking them to a place that would be luke-warm towards them at best, require an enormous investment from the AFL, require significant borrowing at a time where they’d be losing players, staff and members?

Tasmania deserve a team, and unless the AFL is looking to move a team that has significant interstate support or a brand that could wear the move (such as one of the ‘big four’) the only realistic solution is to give the Taswegians a team of their own.


Other bits

Dermie’s crowning of Jade “Aggression” Gresham seemed to have caught on in the commentary box, and to be honest, it’s far from his worst contribution to the game.

Marvel’s scoreboard seemed to be broken for much of the game, switching to Fox footy coverage. No word on whether it’s because the work experience kid was playing PlayStation on it during the week, but if you look closely, you can see the Red Dead Redemption 2 stats bar burned into the upper area of the screen.

It took Nick Larkey up until the third quarter to touch the ball. He was working hard, but any player that goes that long without a meaningful stat needs to be brought into the game. Put him in the ruck or on the wing if you have to but get him near the ball. Instead, he ended up frustrated and irrelevant.

Zak Jones and Jed Anderson seemed to spend all match trying to break each other in half, but at the siren had a laugh and a handshake. I love that about the game, two players who like the contested footy putting their bodies on the line and creating a mutual respect at the end. Anderson is one of the few North players who can say they did their part in this match.
Next Up:

St Kilda have a bye before taking on the Lions. Brisbane will have a six-day turnaround after travelling to WA, which is a bit of a rough bit of scheduling to take on a team that’s just had a 13-day break, but the footy is the same shape for everyone.

This match shapes up as the proof of St Kilda’s status as a premiership gatekeeper or contender. A win against Brisbane will see their flag credentials start to solidify, while a loss will still see them as one of the ‘best of the rest’ echelon of teams.

Brisbane have only a few names on their injury list, and may well get Daniher and McStay back for this match, but with their bye coming the week after, it’s more likely both will be kept on ice until mid-June.

St Kilda may be able to get Jack Higgins back after his concussion issues, but otherwise will have a fairly settled side.

It’s hard to pick this one, the added trip and short break will hurt Brisbane, but could also help them keep in the rhythm they’ve managed to get in the season so far. I think Brisbane are just a little further along in their development at this stage, and might have enough grunt to get over the Saints.

Brisbane by 5 points.

North head to TIO to play the Suns. The last time they went to Queensland in round three, Brisbane put them to the sword with a 108-point belting that resulted in a spray that if certain journalists are to be believed, involved berating the parentage of every player, eating live puppies and summoning the Dark Lord himself to convey the souls of every person associated with the club across the river Styx into the stygian abyss (by that I mean hell, not Tasmania. Tasmania is a lot cooler and has better beer). This is not QLD, but it will be warm and slippery, and the Suns have already demonstrated they can handle those conditions.

The Suns looked in-form with a confident 11-goal win over Hawthorn, and it’s hard to see how anyone could tip North for this one on their form. It would take a lot to go right for them to be competitive, and it’s likely we’ll see a trademark last-quarter blowout.

Suns by 43.

[saynta]

Loved this sentence which made me smile.

"The possession numbers reflected the dominance St Kilda had. 384-309 in touches, with a lot of North’s possession coming in the back half as they swung their balls left and right like a 100M sprinter with satin boxers on."

[Yorkeys]

I didn't think North were too bad, certainly not a basket case as was the impression from the media. I thought their defence was very good. Ours was just outstanding, as were our on ballers. Howard keeping Larkey to SFA was a great effort but don't expect the media or brownlow givers to notice (as soon as there are reasonable odds on Larkey kicking 3 or more I will have a piece, perhaps not against the Sun's FB though). Wilkie's marking was as good as it gets. Clean as. North have some big lads but a couple of their high draft picks mids while skillful seem comparatively small - hyphenated name lad excepted, he looks a player. They have had no luck with injury or the tribunal. Anyone notice the build on Perez - in an athletic context, might make two Mavs. Goldstein was excellent and North seemed well coached and hard at it. Longy is going to have to do something to take mark of the year off Goldy from his effort on Saturday. Pretty sure Ben will though. And then kick the goal.

[SaintWiki]

We all get different impressions from any game but I found it an enjoyable read with many good points made.