Herald Sun - St Kilda list analysis

[Gershwin]

By Sam Landsberger (who I think is one of the better AFL journalists).

St Kilda list analysis: Contract status of every Saints player for season 2021.

After the Saints took a step backwards in 2021, where does their list sit? See who could be leaving and possible recruits including a Collingwood tall.
St Kilda finds itself sifting through the wreckage of another disappointing season.
What many predicted would be a year galloping towards the finals on the back of a promising 2020 ended up a race that appeared over well before the Saints had entered the home straight.

Surprisingly, in a year that so much went so wrong for Brett Ratten’s side, they still managed to finish just one game outside the eight.

Having made the finals last year, Ratten lamented the “inconsistent” first half of 2021 — when St Kilda lost six of its first 10 games — for costing his team shot at returning to September action.
“There’s some real frustration more around our first half of the year. We would have good quarters or good matches but then follow it up with poor performances,” he said.
“The back end of the year we have played some pretty good footy. We haven’t won each week but the way we have gone about it had been pleasing.”

So, where to next year?

Jack Billings is close to signing a four-year contract extension that will take the playmaker to 30, while Patrick Ryder, 33, is expected to suit up for the Saints again next year having been offered a one-year contract.

They would expect continued improvement out of rising star Max King, and hope for an injury-free run for the unlucky Hunter Clark.
Dan Hannebery is yet to offer decent returns for St Kilda’s considerable investment and the maligned Brad Hill needs to find more of the ball.

But all in all, Ratten would be setting his sights on an immediate bounce back in season 2022.
The off-season shopping list is likely to prioritise players who can gut run after some Saints found the return to 20-minute quarters challenging this year.

Some in club land also believe it would make sense for the Saints to consider recruiting Mason Cox (Collingwood), given Paddy Ryder will be 34 next season and Paul Hunter (out of contract) is every chance to join Shaun McKernan (retired) on the list of departures.

Here is a comprehensive look at every player on the St Kilda list.

1. NICK COFFIELD. Age: 21 Games: 52 Status: Signed to 2023
From top five in the best-and-fairest to the fringe of selection, Coffield’s regression mirrored that of the Saints. The defender dug in to recapture some of that spark late in the season however, unlike most on this planet, he will be hoping next year is much more like 2020.

2. JAKE CARLISLE. Age: 29 Games: 151 Status: Retired
Carlisle was such hot property in 2015 that Alastair Clarkson gatecrashed his Miami holiday to try and snatch his signature. Sadly, the 66-game stint at St Kilda never really worked and finished with a whimper. Securing Jade Gresham with the selection Carlisle arrived with will ensure history doesn’t consign this deal to the bad books.

3. ZAK JONES. Age: 26 Games: 119 Status: Signed to 2023
Powerful return against Brisbane Lions in Round 17 summed up his importance. After missing 10 weeks the stoppage star had 10 clearances, 26 disposals and changed the dynamic of the midfield. But frequent soft-tissue setbacks are making life hard.

4. JADE GRESHAM. Age: 24 Games: 95 Status: Signed to 2023
Effectively a new recruit in 2022 and has worked tirelessly in recent pre-seasons to build an engine worthy of the midfield. Such class and goal sense and still only 24. One of the club’s barometers.

5. BRAD CROUCH. Age: 27 Games: 115 Status: Signed to 2025
Grew into his place in the midfielder and was rated above average by Champion Data for disposals and tackles. The big fish St Kilda had long been hoping to land.

6. SEB ROSS. Age: 28 Games: 160 Status: Restricted free agent
Big watch on Ross, who wants to stay but also wants the security of a three-year deal after winning two best-and-fairests. Has been sitting on a two-year offer with triggers for a third and will test the market to see if anyone can better that as a free agent. With Jack Steele and Brad Crouch firing the Saints could probably live without Ross. This season he spent 4 per cent of game time in defence, 46 per cent on the wing, 37 per cent as a midfielder and 13 per cent forward.

7. LUKE DUNSTAN. Age: 26 Games: 116 Status: Restricted free agent
An utterly bizarre way to bow out. Dunstan looked like his papers were stamped before an 11-week patch where he averaged 26 disposals, 12 contested possessions, six clearances and five tackles. It appeared the ball hunter’s career had been salvaged. Then, Dunstan was dropped for Round 23 and he has been told to look elsewhere. Surely the crash-and-bash midfielder is at Gold Coast next year.

8. BRADLEY HILL. Age: 28 Games: 190 Status: Signed to 2025
Blunders in big moments against Geelong, Melbourne and Port Adelaide will haunt fans, who are unsure whether their expensive recruit is King of the Hill or over the Hill. Struggled so much on the wing that he had to shift behind the ball, playing 83 per cent of game time in defence beyond Round 7. In that time he averaged 21 disposals, 16 uncontested possessions and 403 metres gained. Played every game.

9. JACK STEELE. Age: 25 Games: 119 Status: Signed to 2022
Who is the best recruit in St Kilda history? Jack Steele — the clean-cut captain — or Fraser Gehrig — the Carpet Snake dual Coleman Medallist? Steele is likely to become the sole skipper next year after exceeding expectations in a team that underachieved. He was third in the Brownlow last year and has gone to a new level, playing every game. Steele’s camp is already in talks over a long-term extension which would see him become the highest-paid player at the club. Courageous Canberran is known for being as competitive at Call of Duty as he is against Collingwood. Helps kids like Ryan Byrnes and Jack Bytel review their games and was the only midfielder rated elite for both contested ball and tackles by Champion Data.

10. DANIEL HANNEBERY. Age: 30 Games: 223 Status: Signed to 2022
In his three seasons at the Saints Hannebery has played five games (2019), eight games (2020) and two games (2021). His previous nine seasons at Sydney averaged 22.3 games. Yikes. But the dedicated midfielder has made a noble financial sacrifice ahead of what will be the last year of his contract. Hannebery has exhausted plenty of avenues to get his body right — think yoga, Pilates, acupuncture — and nothing has worked. Playing for his career in 2022.

11. HUNTER CLARK. Age: 22 Games: 60 Status: Signed to 2023
Can St Kilda tease out his specials straits? David McKay knocking him into the next millennium didn’t help, but it wasn’t shaping as Hunter’s year before that sickening — but fair, as stamped by the tribunal — collision.

12. MAX KING. Age: 21 Games: 38 Status: Signed to 2026
Still just a baby … and not many babies can take eight contested grabs and kick six goals on four-time All-Australian Jeremy McGovern. When King extends the arms defenders may as well get on their knees and pray, because there is little else they can do to stop that sort of reach. Champion Data rated King elite for contested marks and above average for forward 50 marks among all key forwards. Will twin brother Ben ever be at Moorabbin?

13. JACK LONIE. Age: 25 Games: 85 Status: Out of contract
Round 13 was Lonie’s last appearance and when you’re out of contract and still awaiting an offer that is dangerous territory. Kicked goals in only two games this year and the goalsneak who has maned 87 games in seven seasons without ever really cementing his spot now faces a nervous wait.

14. JARRYN GEARY. Age: 33 Games: 207 Status: Signed to 2022
Spiritual leader has probably spent more time with doctors than Saints defenders in recent years and the time might be right to hand Steele the sole captaincy. That wouldn’t prevent Geary from offering guidance as a respected role model, but could help the banged-up warrior channel his focus on getting to the line each week. Will he be an automatic selection? Or could some time in the VFL be on the cards?

15. JACK BILLINGS. Age: 26 Games: 144 Status: Restricted free agent
Set to spurn free agency and re-sign for four years at St Kilda, with the incentives in that 2025 contract just needing to be thrashed out.

16. DAN BUTLER. Age: 25 Games: 86 Status: Signed to 2022
Champion Data ranked Butler the No. 1 forward-half pressure player of all general forwards this year. But his scoreboard impact dried up, booting 11 fewer goals from three more games compared with 2020. Uncanny goalsense and selfless approach have him popular at the Saints however he would want a performance spike in what looms as a contract year. Played every game.

17. DYLAN ROBERTON. Age: 30 Games: 129 Status: Retired
Heroic effort to play again after those frightening episodes where his heart played up. The father of Boston, Henry and Pip made the correct call to hang them up, transitioning into the VFL coaches’ box as an assistant.

18. PATRICK RYDER. Age: 33 Games: 269 Status: Out of contract
Brad Hill’s housemate is set to sign on for one last hurrah after another season where his importance to the Saints was emboldened with every minute he missed. Rated above average among all rucks for hitouts and hitouts-to-advantage this season while the Saints are five goals better off when he and Ro Marshall team up.

19. ROWAN MARSHALL. Age: 25 Games: 65 Status: Signed to 2022
Contract talks have begun to extend the big man’s stay at Moorabbin before he enters the final year of his current deal. The monster who does it all — clunk big grabs, win clearances and runs back defensively.

20. DOUGAL HOWARD. Age: 25 Games: 85 Status: Signed to 2024
Led the Saints for intercept grabs this season and, as all good full-backs do, rarely give the Sherrin back, even if it means finding the safest option.

21. BEN LONG. Age: 24 Games: 60 Status: Signed to 2022
Talented but at times untrustworthy it is difficult to assess where Long’s journey will land. Didn’t win 10 disposals or kick a goal in any of his final four games. Would another club be able to unlock his potential?

22. JACK HIGGINS. Age: 22 Games: 62 Status: Signed to 2023
Rated elite among all general forwards for forward 50 groundball-gets (44) and above average for disposals, goals and score involvements. Super pick up although that trade does mean the Saints currently don’t have a draft pick between No. 9 and No. 46 this season. The kid who kicks his legs in meetings to help stay focussed is such a natural player and joy to watch … and still only 22.

23. JACK BYTEL. Age: 21 Games: 16 Status: Signed to 2022
Knows how to win a clearance as well as he does how to get injured and needs a big summer to build up both his body and his tank. Plenty of promise and learning up close from the likes of Steele should help him deliver on that.

24. JAMES FRAWLEY. Age: 32. Games: 241 Status: Retired
Old Hawthorn mates Jarryd Roughead and Brett Ratten hoped reheated Chips would help the Saints as they coaxed Frawley out of retirement in what was effectively a throw at the stumps. Champion backman is gone for good this time.

25. DEAN KENT. Age: 27 Games: 98 Status: Out of contract
Curious case … played the final seven games and ran to the line, booting three goals and two goals in the last two wins. Ratten rates his raw pace but a contract offer has not yet landed for 2022.

26. JOSH BATTLE. Age: 22 Games: 54 Status: Signed to 2022
St Kilda’s everywhere man has started speaking to rival clubs after petering out this season. Some at the Saints think Battle has only scratched the surface of his talent, but the inability to settle in one spot has probably stalled his progression. Probably sticks it out but the bloke who once bowled Will Pucovski has too much talent to be sitting on the bench as a substitute.

27. SHAUN MCKERNAN. Age: 31 Games: 91 Status: Retired
Three AFL clubs, 13 seasons and 91 games for the bloke taken two picks before Hannebery. Rediscovered his passion for footy at the Saints although a toe injury stopped that love from spilling into the public spotlight.

28. TIM MEMBREY. Age: 27 Games: 131 Status: Signed to 2024
Selfless forward who averaged a career-high 14.9 disposals this season, which was ranked No. 1 of all key forwards. Membrey also led the Saints for goal assists (14) and was the only player to get close to Max King for marks inside 50m, taking 52 (King was 54). Can hold his head high.

29. JIMMY WEBSTER. Age: 28 Games: 113 Status: Signed to 2022
Were All-Australian selectors watching Webster? Would’ve been a shrewd selection in the squad of 40 after keeping Tom Papley, Charlie Cameron and Toby Greene goalless and keeping Jamie Elliott and Dustin Martin to one. What happened when Webster missed? Essendon pair Jake Stringer (four goals) and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (three) and then Port Adelaide pair Steven Motlop (three) and Orazio Fantasia (three) went to town on the Saints’ backline. Webster rolled into Ben Paton’s spot perfectly and Champion Data reckons he had the third-hardest match-ups of any AFL defender this year. Not bad for the prankster who once tricked Daniel McKenzie into dipping a chocolate brownie in barbecue sauce. Jokes aside, he is a serious player and has breathed fresh life into his career.

30. MATTHEW ALLISON. Age: 19 Games: 0 Status: Signed to 2022
Reprogramming this natural goalkicker into a defender will take time and hopefully the VFL is back to normal next season because the interruptions have stunted the development of so many youngsters across the competition.

31. RYAN BYRNES. Age: 20 Games: 17 Status: Signed to 2022
Inside-outside midfielder blessed with a burst of speed. Late pick who has started to look the goods. One to watch with excitement.

32. MASON WOOD. Age: 27 Games: 72 Status: Signed to 2022
The only member of the massive Kangaroo cull to get a look in, and Wood chipped away at the Saints to become a valued member deserving of another contract. They like what he brings, both on and off the field.

33. BEN PATON. Age: 22 Games: 35 Status: Signed to 2022
Super competitor who has resumed running after missing the entire season with a broken leg that might take another 12 months to fully recover from. Does Paton return to the lockdown job Webster covered so thoroughly? Or does he replace a Webster or Hill in 2022? Paton is one whose reputation inside and outside of Moorabbin contrast sharply. Boy, they love him inside those walls.

34. TOM HIGHMORE. Age: 23 Games: 12 Status: Signed to 2022
One of just 10 players to record at least 15 intercept possessions in a single match this year. Defender gets a big tick and should be in line for a second contract with a healthy pay rise.

35. JACK SINCLAIR. Age: 26 Games: 119 Status: Signed to 2024
Nick Hind got a lot of love for his debut season for Essendon, but those who watched silky Sinclair slot in at halfback must’ve wondered if the Saints really missed him. This bloke wasn’t in Brett Ratten’s team early days, but you can bank on him giving the podium a decent nudge in this year’s best-and-fairest. Sinclair’s commitment at the ball is unquestionable and he rated above average among all general defenders for disposals, uncontested possessions, intercept marks and intercept possessions this season. The most improved.

36. DANIEL MCKENZIE. Age: 25 Games: 61 Status: Signed to 2022
McKenzie looked gone for all money. He had missed 18 months through injury and was fortunate to have previously signed a contract for 2021-22. Boy, did he make the most of that. McKenzie went forward both in his career and on the grass, evolving from a halfback to the wing, and recorded a kick rating of +9per cent, which was ranked No. 8 in the AFL. There were still setbacks, however, such as a concussion and then a torn calf muscle which was sustained at training while he was out with suspension.

37. LEO CONNOLLY. Age: 20 Games: 7 Status: Signed to 2023
How many AFL players have taken a running bounce before they’ve ever recorded a disposal? This bloke has, and that skill and composure is exactly what Saints fans have been starved of. Since that maiden moment, Connolly has taken six more bounces and signed a new contract.

38. OSCAR CLAVARINO. Age: 22 Games: 5 Status: Out of contract
Might take out the VFL best-and-fairest and that probably goes to the heart of Clavarino’s problem. Will he ever make that leap from second-tier star to AFL regular? Clavarino had to wait 1283 days to make his AFL debut after he was drafted, which included 37 official VFL games and many more unofficial ones. Could be squeezed out this year.

39. DARRAGH JOYCE. Age: 24 Games: 10 Status: Out of contract
Like Clavarino, could be up against it to hold on after failing to bash down the door and having his season ended by concussion.

41. PAUL HUNTER. Age: 28 Games: 7 Status: Out of contract
Ultimate journeyman who made his AFL debut at 28 but surely isn’t the man to take St Kilda forward. Still, it was a great to see the former Adelaide Crows and Redlegs bloke get his go after signing in February.

42. MAX HEATH. Age: 18 Games: 0 Status: Signed to 2022
Is this mid-season pick up the man to learn from and ultimately replace Ryder? At 204cm and known for his aggression he is one the Saints hold high hopes for … but don’t expect a debut in 2022.

43. COOPER SHARMAN. Age: 21 Games: 4 Status: Signed to 2023
Coaches have been blown away Sharman’s footy IQ. Seriously, how does this kid react so quickly and make decisions few would consider in the heat of battle? The mid-season draftee from the SANFL is a natural footballer and some say the 193cm goalkicker will dilute the vigour with which St Kilda chases Ben King. What can Cooper conjure after a full AFL pre-season next year? Former member of GWS Giants’ academy who is now living with Mason Wood.

44. CALLUM WILKIE. Age: 25 Games: 63 Status: Signed to 2023
A set-and-forget magnet for Ratten. Wilkie held the likes of Matt Taberner, Lance Franklin, Harry McKay and Jack Riewoldt to one goal or less this season and his reliable disposal adds to the package. Played every game where he again proved almost as hard to beat as the Delta variant.

45. SAM ALABAKIS. Age: 24 Games: 0 Status: Out of contract
Malaysian-born Saint who was raised in Dubai and signed as a Category B rookie as a former college basketballer. It’s a remarkable story, but after three seasons what is the future for the equal-tallest player (211cm) to ever be on an AFL list? The mid-season arrival of Heath might make it hard to keep working on the ‘Big Sal’ project.

[skeptic]

Surprisingly informative and good wrap up

Be interesting to see the state of the defenders…
Clav and Joyce is the interest

[Sanctorum]

Excellent analysis of St Kilda's players in 2021, agree with all the assessments except that I predict Max Heath will debut in 2022.

[Wayne42]

Hope they give big Clav another year.

[saynta]

Hope they give big Clav another year.

Hope so too.