Is St Kilda Melbourne 2019

[older saint]

The similarities between Melbourne 2018 & 2019 and StKilda 2020 & 2021 I feel are significant and perhaps provide a blue print forward.

Melbourne came from nowhere, made a prelim, topped up a little, got comfortable, had injuries and went backwards. 2019 they went to the draft , got Jackson, Pickett, identified a lack of speed and got Langdon from Freo, and Tomlinson from GWS( although his role changed from what he was recruited for). They got rid of high paid but under performing Hogan in 2018 and got May ( who spent some of 19 either unfit or injured) identifying another need.
They also had high end talent which was under achieving - Petracca, Brayshaw( part due to injury) , and to some extent Oliver . These were guys who foudn the ball and looked ok but didnt hurt you or were inconsistent.
MOve forwrad 12 months Petracca goit fitter than he has ever been and matured as a person and footballer, Brayshaw got over his head injuries, Oliver changed his game to an extent and started to hurt opposition teams. May and Lever ( specfic , expensive recruits) got fit and started to deliver. This has then provided confidence to others to grow such as Neil- Bullen and even McDonald. In the mean time Pickett and Jackson ( early picks) developed and jumped on board to get to a level needed for AFL.
They changed their coaching panel and add Richo ( a great assistant but not a good head coach) and Mark Williams.

So how does Stkilda stack up comparitively.

Steele and Crouch are A grade mids. Crouch could still improve on defenisive running and even goal kicking. Gresham, Jones injured and provide a point of difference. Jones was playing best footy so far, Gresham needs to lift a level from a good solid AFL footballer to beyond and he has the talent to do it.

We look like a top 8 pick this year so we need to get talent in - best available player.
Billings is RFA and likley to get a big offer from North. If over $700k and wil get 1st round pick then bang dont match. While i think Billings will be a good player it is a lot of money to have tied up there and may benefit both parties. So could then have pick 7 and 8 for example. 2 gun young players.

Speaking of which Clark and Coffield both need to take the Petracca Step . Coffield a year younger , same draft, I think has the ability to be a Stewart from Geelong type. Clark could be the silk mid we are dying for. Both need to be surgically attached to Steele this pre season, in the gym, on time trials and discover that what they have doen so far is actually the minimum required and create a new norm. To me these 2 are the main spot our improvement can occur quickly.

Identify areas of specifc need. To me it is a gold kicking HFF (not small forward as such) and a speedy outside mid. Guys not getting a game at tope clubs get thrown up - Narkle, Clarke , Etc but look further are they not getting a game because of talent in that spot or some other reason? We have been hurt before with this strategy.

Jettison talent you have question marks on that has had multiple years to deliver - Carlisle, Long, Billings, Lonie, all canidates here for the right price.

Will somone like GC over pay for a Carlisle , Ross, Billings to come in and provide leadership and experience ( which they need) ??

I honestly believe if we get the next Summer right come 2023 ( not 2022) we can be contending top 4 .

[Vortex]

I hope so, we need luck with player availability, with injuries and with players chosing not to play. Our depth is woeful and we don't have much currency at this years trade table, let's hope the brains trust can pull a rabbit out of the hat. We need a replacement for Hanners and Josh Bruce desperately.

[cwrcyn]

A lot of similarities. Melbourne got a new fitness guy two years go who told the club the players were nowhere near fit enough and it would take two pre-seasons to fix it. He was on the money.

Demons had a ton of injuries in 2019 which cruelled them. It also spilled over into the first half of 2020. Everyone was bashing them for being flakey and inconsistent. Sound familiar? Coach under pressure, club culture questioned, as well as leadership.

2021....same coach, pretty much the same list and suddenly they're well coached, have great leadership and a strong culture.

Now, they haven't added a huge swathe of players to their list in 2021. It's basically the same outfit as last year (although a couple have stepped up a gear). The main difference is they are super fit and have the lowest rate of injuries to key players in the league. It makes all the difference. Can they go all they way? Maybe....maybe not

If we get super fit in the off-season and half a decent run with injuries next year we'll definitely be better. This year we have added Crouch and Higgins, and Byrnes looks a player, and quite possibly Highmore will establish himself as an AFL player. If you gain four players in one season, that's a win.

Does that make us a top four team in 2022? No, but top 6 is achievable. It's imperative that we draft a genuine midfielder who is quick with good skills. Fremantle have been able to do it recently, as has Port Adelaide. Looks like it will be somewhere between pick 4 and 6. For God's sake Saints, get it right this time.

[cwrcyn]

I overlooked Jackson and a Pickett. Both fine draft choices. That's the kind of thing we need to do

[Wayne42]

I think Melbourne have more quality players than St Kilda and they have more depth.

Goodwin now looks OK as a coach but i think the reasons for that are Melbourne bringing in Mark Williams and Adem Yze to assist him.

I'm not sure what Richo does at Melbourne team wise so i don't know how much he contributes to them having a good season, so far.

[darylcowie]

No I think Melbourne are like St.Kilda 2009, with a dominant defence.
Sadly for them the season will probably end the same way with another pussy parade!

[Vortex]

Melbourne has more quality across their list and it runs deeper. Our best 22 is capable of finals, maybe even top 4 however we are going to need a he'll of lot of luck in 22 otherwise we'll just be bottom 8 material again.

We need to recruit Josh Bruce and one more quality mid.

[saynta]

Melbourne has more quality across their list and it runs deeper. Our best 22 is capable of finals, maybe even top 4 however we are going to need a he'll of lot of luck in 22 otherwise we'll just be bottom 8 material again.

We need to recruit Josh Bruce and one more quality mid.

If Paddy hadn't done a hammie in the last minutes of the Footscray final last year , I believe we would have been playing off in the grand final. Maybe even winning the thing.

[Vortex]

Melbourne has more quality across their list and it runs deeper. Our best 22 is capable of finals, maybe even top 4 however we are going to need a he'll of lot of luck in 22 otherwise we'll just be bottom 8 material again.

We need to recruit Josh Bruce and one more quality mid.

If Paddy hadn't done a hammie in the last minutes of the Footscray final last year , I believe we would have been playing off in the grand final. Maybe even winning the thing.

There were a couple others missing that wouldn't have helped and ironically Long not playing was considered a big loss.

[Trev from the Bush]

I'd like to think we are more like the Geelong of 2006.

[shanegrambeau]

I see some similarities. Their Lever-May combination and our Howard-Wilkie thang. I think the biggest differences are their midfield (bigger, stronger) and their coaching situation. Goodwin has been sitting on the seat and has been looking very shaky for years, where as Ratts is still the new bloke just getting his thing on.

Then they have Richo and Choco doing whatever they do, which seems to be working.

What happens withe the fixture must be a concern for them. They have a tough run home. I wonder if we might end up having a one month suspension of the season at this rate (which might really help us Saints) and finish the season in a Tassie hub in October!

[Scollop]

Do we have 8-10 first round picks and with half of those going in the top 10 in the National Draft?

I know they didn't personally select them all as 18 year olds, but getting Langdon, May and Lever and a few others ...well...

That's not what our list looks like

[B.M]

Maybe we need to get Richo back from them

[Scollop]

Yeah, Richo is the key to their rise this year

He is the magnet that is going to draw Free Agents to the club

Richo is why Melbourne is a destination club

[B.M]

Why is their midfield bigger and stronger??

Petracca 186-90………. Steele 187-88
Oliver 187-87………….. Crouch 185-83
Viney 180-85……………. Dunstan 184-86
Harmes 186-76………… Jones 180-78
Brayshaw 187-87 ……. Ross 187-86
Langdon 182-76 ………. Billings 185-82

[B.M]

Being top of the ladder makes them a destination club

Reason they are there

Lever, May, Oliver, Petracca, Gawn, McDonald, Pickett, Langdon, Harmes.

They have a quality team with few injuries

[saynta]

Yeah, Richo is the key to their rise this year

He is the magnet that is going to draw Free Agents to the club

Richo is why Melbourne is a destination club

Williams ?

[B.M]

Nope

Just a lot of good players in good form

[shanegrambeau]

Why is their midfield bigger and stronger??

Petracca 186-90………. Steele 187-88
Oliver 187-87………….. Crouch 185-83
Viney 180-85……………. Dunstan 184-86
Harmes 186-76………… Jones 180-78
Brayshaw 187-87 ……. Ross 187-86
Langdon 182-76 ………. Billings 185-82

Mnn.
They are 1cm taller in total. Massive- A difference of nearly 1.8mm averaged across all six. Surely that is important in a game of inches?
They are 2kg lighter in total. Well, good point B.M. but what about tank wise? I don't know, but I am guessing they are fitter. help!

[B.M]

Not really, I’d argue we are fitter, endurance wise but they are more powerful.

Real Difference
Petracca is an absolute gun

As is Oliver

Both A Grade and then some

Plus they have Gawn putting it on a platter for them

We have Steele, A Grade - great player and better defensively than them but not as much of a ball winner as Oliver and not as damaging as Petracca

[shanegrambeau]

Not really, I’d argue we are fitter, endurance wise but they are more powerful.

Real Difference
Petracca is an absolute gun

As is Oliver

Both A Grade and then some

Plus they have Gawn putting it on a platter for them

We have Steele, A Grade - great player and better defensively than them but not as much of a ball winner as Oliver and not as damaging as Petracca

yep...
they have three walk up AAs in Gawn, Petra and Oliver Twist. We get some joy from newies like Byrnes and Highmore and Higgins giving it a crack.