How to fix the Saints!

[skeptic]

Firstly, I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom.

Yes the season is a right off, a lot of problems have been exposed etc but there are positives to take away too.

We do have a good core list IMO and whilst we absolutely need to turn over and rebuild a bit... I think it’s nonsense to suggest we’re 5 years away from challenging.

2020 wasn’t a fluke or an aberration. We have a lot of players on the list that are capable of playing good football, many certainly much better than has been demonstrated this year... and there’s a lot of talent on the list that will be around for 6-7 years +.

I think if the club is honest/realistic with themselves about the problems and address the key areas, they can bring the nose up pretty quickly.

Here are my suggestions:

Coaching
I called it last year... Ratten has a very peculiar take on structure.
Dropping Carlisle inexplicably last year and leaving the backline exposed a tall derailed our momentum... and he absolutely loves the 3 limited small forwards that can’t rotate through the middle approach. It was Kent, Lonie, and Butler last year... and it’s been Higgins, Lonie and a much worse Butler this year. It’s a crap approach

In addition to this, he seems obsessed with moving players around

Carlisle - ruck, defender, forward
Battle - wing, forward, defender, forward
Long - back flank, sub, midfield, back flank
Coffield - back flank, forward flank
Clarke - HBF, midfield
SInclair - HBF, HFF, midfield, HBF
etc etc

By and large, it hasn’t worked

What I’d like to see from Ratts for the rest of the year is a clear and balanced team structure. Players largely playing a set role/position and if they have to move around, like for like swapping.

In defence, we’re one tall too short and have desperately missed Carlisle’s experience and mongrel. In addition to that however, I reckon Paton and Clark’s composure (the latter playing in the middle more) has impacted how the backline functions.
Howard and Wilkes have been admirable but they need another big bodied, guy that can impact the contest against the big forwards. That guy, for the rest of the season should be Battle.
He’s a touch undersized but looks decent as a defender and has been rubbish everywhere else.

IMO, build around those three.

Now we’re limited for forward options but with Membrey set to come back, King holding his ground and HOPEFULLY Marshall to return... That is a decent group of forward targets (with Marshall and Ryder rotating forward to ruck).

Every other player selected in the team needs to be about run. If you’re not capable of going into the middle, or sitting on a wing or winning a contest when the ball comes to ground up forward...
There’s no spot for you.

That means at most, 2 small forwards... Higgins absolutely gets one spot... Lonie and Kent I’ve put a line through... Butler may deserve another opportunity sooner or later if he’s dropped... but if it’s not him, rest midfielders like Steele, Byrnes, Billings, Gresh (next year) or even Dunstan for patches. Wood may deserve more opportunity too. Has looked rubbish but seems to have picked up a little too.


Next thing is fitness...
Treat the rest of the season like 1 big off-season from now on. Every single player on this list should be worked to maximum level, peak fitness... and if their restricted and can’t do this or at risk of an over use injury... bench them.

I do not want to see another Marshall incident where he clearly came back too early and missed more time then if we had just let him complete his recovery properly

Guys like Higgins, Clark, Coffield, Long, Dunstan, Bytel, Billings should all be high intensity running machines ... sprinting from contest to contest

LONG TERM LONG TERM LONG TERM mentality

And now onto the list... there are 14-15 players on this list that pbly need cut as they’re not up to it or too injury prone.

We need midfielders, fast and skilled. Never want to hear the phrase, he’s slow or disposal isn’t flash but he gets the ball. Turnovers are killers... if they can’t dispose of the ball to a teammate or break lines = worthless.

We need a long term solution to CHB and a back up ruck that can come in and compete.

ABSOLUTELY NO - delisted ageing/retiring players coming in for a year or 2... we got four of them last off-season and Wood has been the best!

Have to stop carrying injury prone players... no good to us if they consistently can’t play....

The list

Got to go
Hannerbery, McKenrnan, Geary (retire), Carlisle (retire), Kent, Lonie, Roberton (retired), Hunter, Frawley and Alabakis

All of them absolutely no good to us. Either can’t play or can’t get on the park

That’s 10. Would be tempted to add one of Joyce or Clavarino to that list as well as Dmac + Wood but how many can you replace in one off-season... I would dare say all should get another year because they could at least come in and compete.
Dunstan is another one I would have cut but he’s upped his performance and can at least compete at the level

Jones and Gresham are the final interesting conversations... both clearly top 22 and not in the delist conversation but both are approaching the chronically injured category. Granted Gresh has been unlucky but I’ve read concerns that this injury may impact his speed which could be a big problem...
As for Jones... if there’s a longer term recovery option for his repeated soft tissue injuries, I think we have to take it... is exactly the player we need but also need more than 12 games a season.

Those are my thoughts

[6621104]

thanks Skeptic, pretty much mirrors the thoughts of many of us. Quick, one touch players with good disposal essential. I am not so sure about the "positional critique" as the running the modern player needs to do makes any position interchangeable. Watching Richmond- the bench mark still, players are constantly on the move. Sure they do have key forwards and a settled back three but their running patterns are what makes the team so good.
Another point I took from a comment from Christain Petracca- "trust the tackler" - this prevents too many players converging on the ball carrier, something we are guilty of which means we are cut up if the ball gets to the outside. So - to add to the quick one touch skill set I would add tackling skill and size. HAve a look at the doggies- Melbourne game - the dees stopped the outside run because they stuck their tackles.

We are Saints people so we will stick- made much easier if we can see a realistic attempt to improve the list with a strategy known to work-i.e. draft the best player!

[cwrcyn]

Hard to disagree with anything you wrote, skeptic. Our core group is good enough. The Battle observation is spot on and I'd be playing him at CHB. We need another proper back up ruck for when Ryder retires and we need two quick runners with elite foot skills (like Christian Salem and Isaac Smith) and that should see us have the complete team. From that, build some depth to the list by identifying young talent.

The positive this year is that although we've had a horror season with injury and performance, we've still improved our playing stocks with the addition of Crouch, Higgins, and Byrnes. Byrnes looks to me like he'll develop into a consistent 25 possession per game player who is a good decision maker with neat skills. He compensates for the Hannebery disaster. Higgins was a great get, and Crouch cost us nothing in the way of draft picks. Bytel needs to get seriously fit or he'll become a VFL plodder. I get the impression that he's got the talk but as yet the walk is beyond him. Quite possibly the slowest player on the list. To me, I've never understood the previous level of hype around Nick Coffield. He needs to lift his intensity and attack at the contest (including his one on one contest work) or he will never come anywhere near reaching his potential. Another one who has to get fit and get motivated. Tom Highmore is breathing down his neck and although not as quick as Coffield, he possesses the concentration and courage to make himself a very useful addition to our back half. It's early days, but we may have found one there.

Apart from Ryder, the old brigade must go. They are cooked, and you rightly point out they have nothing to offer. Alabakis, from all reports is only on the list because he is 210cm tall. The discussion around Lonie and Kent is interesting. Both are in that 'almost' bracket of AFL players. Both are horribly one-sided, but at least Kent has the weight and strength to bump his opponent off the ball. Long term, it's hard to see them getting regular games. However, in a list with a lack of depth I'd be inclined to keep them for at least another year. As it stands right now they have no trade value. Find two replacements via the draft and then move them on

[Vortex]

Good post Skeptic.

The phrase making a silk purse from pigs ear springs to mind when thinking about what to do with this current list. We really are stuck with the core of this list for a few more years. Can they turn it around next year?

[happy feet]

Would be nice to have an enforcer out there too. Someone a bit like Steven Baker.

[Toy Saint]

Excellent post Skeptic.

A great starting point is the 10 Must go. It's almost impossible to disagree.

Also agree that we must not recruit rejects from other clubs for depth.

We should replace those 10 with kids, with proper development and coaching 3-4 may turn into keepers.

Also agree that we should be looking for mids with pace and skill, and use them to fill gaps in the forward line & back line.

Outstanding post.

[Yorkeys]

Yes those 10 a start. Several others come readily to mind. But that's arguing at the margin. Agree.

[shanegrambeau]

So basically tank?

Battle and Carlisle are not considered good enough to be key position players. They fill holes and are utility players.

But what concerns me is the our lack of capacity to keep presenting and run out games.

Surely this is something that should concern everyone and it is not something that has an obvious solution. For whatever dynamic has led to this turn of events was unforeseen and just like these dynamic that appear like this, like wheel that starts rattling loose, like a strap on a bag that keeps bending the wrong way, a drawer that jams, you can never fix it.

Unless there is a change, like a new bag!

[Wayne42]

The Barrett opinion on AFL.com
If it is good enough for Carlton to turn itself inside out and upside down, then the Saints need to, too. In a season which has already seen them lose four matches by nine goals or more, Saturday night's capitulation against Adelaide was arguably their worst performance.

The Crows had not scored even a behind well into the second quarter, trailed by 36 points twice, as late as the third quarter. And yet with a match total of 66 points (9.12), won by six. St Kilda didn't have access to key players Rowan Marshall, Jade Gresham, Zak Jones, Tim Membrey, Seb Ross, Jarryn Geary, Ben Paton and Jake Carlisle. But this was the loss of a team which is lost. The review should incorporate recruiting, too, not just the match-day workings of the football department.

[Vazelos]

Good post as always Skeptic and a few other replies made some good points.
We are so bad at the moment the real intelligent hard core posters are dissecting the situation and the cheerleaders have disappeared.
The “ you are not a real supporter if you don’t blindly cheer mediocrity” types in here even they have disappeared.
No doubt fast run and carry skilful players are what is required.
The balance is all wrong.
Gresham- needs to go to the forward line for a couple of reasons. 2 years in a row bad injuries needs to be protected from too much grunt work needs to be focusing quality and not quantity .
He is an X factor player like a Bolton a Pickett he needs to be near the goals.

Our true midfield has the following part of our future-
Steele Crouch Jones Byrnes Bytel( needs to improve running capacity) and Ross for short term on a lesser contract.
Rest are not up to it.
If we get the run and skill needed on the outside then Jones game can be readjusted. He has amazing grunt and intensity you turn him into a true elite inside mid and limit him being the player kicking the ball into 50.
We are 2 short they need to be excellent for us to take the next step - Sam Walsh level the last ten years we have failed to nail this type of player.
Battle looked best settled at CHB we have a gaping hole there send him there and let him settle.
One thing I have observed in different teams and codes is you cannot fix this in one window.
Clubs that try to do that fail. Pick quality I wrote in my post last week, hold your nerve and nail the key spots. CHB is an issue but class Mids with run and carry is more so short term.
We may have a couple in our zone and we must pick the best kid in the draft we should get a top 5-7 pick.
Put Battle in the weights room tell him he is CHB next year and let him learn the spot and mentally prepare for 2022.
Serious work needs to be completed on kicking for goal this costs us 3+ games a year this is the biggest recruit of the year if we can fix this.
King Membrey and Higgins serious work has to be done.
I agree the recruitment of Crouch Higgins Byrnes and Highmore is some good trading it hasn’t all been bad.
Losing Hind was a disaster a big mistake.
Clear out all the dead wood over the next 2 years probably 70% this year and the rest next year.
It’s 12 names +.
Reassess the whole football dept make sure your assistant coaches fitness staff and skills coaches are working properly and the game plan also.
This is a reset of 2 years it can turn around quick when Marshall Jones Gresham back into the team it’s a different side.
Get rid of Hannabery he is stealing the money and make the big decision on Billings be bold I think he can’t give us what we need at present his currency may allow us to get what we do need in the future.

[tony74]

Well something has to give. I think you’ll find two of the assistants will be shown the door during the bye week with a couple more later in the year.

[Banger9798]

Would be nice to have an enforcer out there too. Someone a bit like Steven Baker.

Exactly, when it comes to recruiting someone this needs to be a factor.

I like Mathieson from Brisbane for instance.

We are a relatively timid side , we need someone who the opposition worry about.

[Impatient Sainter]

Well something has to give. I think you’ll find two of the assistants will be shown the door during the bye week with a couple more later in the year.

Finally!

Obviously contracts have restricted their movement, but too many players have gone backwards this year. The fitness trainers need a major review also, as they have a rolled out a seriously under done team on fitness this season.

Its worth bringing in new assistants regularly just to get the latest IP from other leading clubs. Our current group of assistants have been at the club since the Richardson era and we know how well they went during that period.

[skeptic]

Would be nice to have an enforcer out there too. Someone a bit like Steven Baker.

Exactly, when it comes to recruiting someone this needs to be a factor.

I like Mathieson from Brisbane for instance.

We are a relatively timid side , we need someone who the opposition worry about.

I think Jones is that player for us and an in his prime Hannebery could be at least in terms of the contest

[Wayne42]

Well something has to give. I think you’ll find two of the assistants will be shown the door during the bye week with a couple more later in the year.

ooh wow

Who will fill the void if assistants get the chop mid year, i wonder who gets chopped first .

[Wayne42]

St Kilda Coaching panel
Brett Ratten - Senior Coach.
Brendon Lade - Assistant Coach - Midfield.
Aaron Hamill - Assistant Coach - Backline.
Adam Skrobalak - Assistant Coach - Forwards.
Ben McGlyn - Development Manager.
Jake Batchelor - Sandringham Coach and Saints Development.
Jarryd Roughead - Football Operations Assistant and Goalkicking.

[Sanctorum]

I like your analysis Skeptic and go along with most of your findings, the only thing you haven't covered is the performances of the coaches which is equally important to consideration of the playing list.

Ratten was totally gutted after the last minute loss to the Crows, as Saints supporters were too, and his message to members after the game showed how terribly stressed out he was, so many "you knows" throughout to try and rationalise the inexplicable, I felt really sorry for him because I consider him a very good coach who is being let down by his players whose poor decision making was the main reason they lost that game.

In 2020 Ratten was rated as a very successful coach, guiding the team to their first finals campaign since 2011.

This year the team has been beset with a lot of injured players, including the unavailability of Paddy Ryder for the first 6 rounds compounded by the loss of top players Gresham (round 4 onwards), Marshall (rounds 1 to 3, then out since round 9) Jones (played just 6 games) and Carlisle (just 4 games). Team co-captain and talisman Jarryn Geary has also only played 3 games.

So it is not all doom and gloom
This has had the obvious impact that what worked work so very well in 2020 in terms of game plan and cohesive team play has gone out the window, and the backup players have not been up to the job to complete the task.

So I am quite certain that Ratten's job IS secure, but the same can not be said for the assistants and I hope Simon Lethlean & Co realise that Ratten needs a much stronger cast of assistants to support him in every facet - training track and gameday.

[skeptic]

Good discussion

Hamil is one that’s getting a bit of flak as of late but the defence IMO, by and large, has functioned pretty well IMO

[skeptic]

One of the things that’s been interesting to watch from a perspective is the massive fluctuations in supporter reaction.

Generally speaking, I’ve always tended to find that most things change gradually over time and that massive reactions/changes in opinions tend to be more emotive then substantive

Last year Ratten was a great coach we were so happy

Now he’s absolutely hopeless, has no clue and possibly could be sacked according to some

King was a promising forward and developing nicely. Now he’s a spud and always was

Coffield’s a spud... Butler flukes his season etc

Likewise those people who were shouting about what a great recruit Hannebery was after the bulldogs final and how all of it was worth it for that one performance... don’t hear much singing praises for that trade this season

IMO people need to remember not to throw the baby out with the bath water here

[Impatient Sainter]

You have to remember football draws out peoples emotions and not everyone has a played the game or been involved at any level. So there are opinions from all aspects of life which is something that is great about our game!

I for one have never been a huge fan of Coffield's game. He played some good footy last year when he had the right match ups, but looks to lose confidence too quickly when things dont go his way. So Im not surprised to see his current form fluctuations...

[The Fireman]

toughen the barstards up

If they all played like Long, it wouldn't look pretty but we'd get results.

[perfectionist]

Picks one and two for the next decade.

[shanegrambeau]

I don't understand why you are all talking about personnel.

They aren't great, but they are capable of playing much, much better.

Why don't you speak of why the lights just go off and we are dead in the water?

Conditioning, mind set, game patterns..

Surely that is where we are in diabolical need of a remedy.

[skeptic]

Didn’t seem to have been as much of an issue last season

[saintsRrising]

Another point I took from a comment from Christain Petracca- "trust the tackler" - this prevents too many players converging on the ball carrier, something we are guilty of which means we are cut up if the ball gets to the outside.

THIS. One of my pet hates, and is core to the coaching not addressing some basics of football. Multiple players chasing and tackling the one player creates a weakness. With umpires less likely this season to reward the tackler, it makes it even worse as it makes the "gain" of a paid tackle less likely

Time and time again you see this in our games.

OTHERS THINGS WE ROUTINLEY DO THAT WE SHOULD NOT

My No 1 per hate. THE SHEPHERD. When does it actually work?

We are one of one with an opponents who wins the ball, but who is not with immediate arm reach. Rather than to move in immediately in and engage the ball carrier our players tend to just shepherd and wave their arms.

What that does is to release the pressure and the ball carrier has time to think about their disposal and to choose an effective target.

Whereas if they press with a tackle, if if they cannot land it in time the ball carrier still has to rush their disposal.


TAKING POSSESSION OF THE BALL WHEN YOU KNOW YOU WILL BE TACKLED

When the ball is in dispute and opponent near compared to other well drilled teams we will often take possession, only to get tackled. If when the tackle is not rewarded it will often take our players out of the contesr allowing the opposition to win the ball.

Players at well drilled teams will just keep tapping the ball on. Richmond are very good at this.