The decision to pick McCartin.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Contemplate this.
We could have taken Petracca, Bontempelli and Caleb Daniel.
All three were open for us to select.
Instead we took McCartin, Billings and Lonie.
I know hindsight is not worth much, but we could have/should have done better. IMO.
We could have taken Petracca, Bontempelli and Caleb Daniel.
All three were open for us to select.
Instead we took McCartin, Billings and Lonie.
I know hindsight is not worth much, but we could have/should have done better. IMO.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Well, if the club used your principle of minimising risk, they would have gone for Petracca.SAINT-LEE wrote: ↑Wed 28 Apr 2021 10:09pm And yet with no concussions McMartin was exactly what we did need...split packs, took great marks, decent kick for goal, led beautifully.
But for hindsight....we'd all be trillionaires....
Why didn't you buy any Bitcoin in 2011 for 11 cents a piece? Don't you care about your family? Don't you have any concern for their welfare? Surely you did research on how to best invest for their futures? Didn't you see Bitcoin at $81,000 a piece?
Okay, you missed 2011. Why didn't you invest in 2020 when Bitcoin was $4600? Surely you realised how badly you'd stuffed up and invested everything?? Right?
Of course not. You did the best with what knowledge was in your sphere, you resisted taking a risk or trying something out of the norm....you lost big.
Isn't it your job to provide? How are you still even considered a part of the family after such a sickening stuff up?
Hindsight. Its a b1tch
I had 23 Bitcoin in 2017 I paid $22425 and sold them for $36,589 because I was worried. By the end of 2017 they were worth $462,047, at their peak in 2021 they were worth $1,863,000.
I was pathetic, scared, listened to the " good advice" of a financial advisor at CWB.
Don't be so hard on yourself for having zero foresight or no vision. We all play it safe, including St Kilda.
But does that fit your rage narrative? Nah.
Carry on blaming people for having the same lack of foresight you have....
Your adviser should have advised you to sell two thirds of your BTC and let the profits run on the remainder, but who would have known.
Buy ETH.
Holder of unacceptable views and other thought crimes.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
"top end" is a nice way of saying, "not number one".Ape_Man wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 1:01am Paddy wasn't some rank outsider in the draft. It is easy to say now that Petracca was the clear standout but McCartin was not just in the conversation, he was a genuine top level draft pick.
The Age had an article that had Heeny number 1, but he was always going to be a Swan.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/201 ... 1nfn5.html
An interesting quote is:
After Heeney, it gets harder. Any one of Christian Petracca, Paddy McCartin, Darcy Moore or Angus Brayshaw could have come next on my list, they're so difficult to separate. I flipped Petracca and McCartin around so many times, I don't envy St Kilda's need to settle on one over the other.
ABC had Petracca 1, Brayshaw then McCartin.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-25/ ... nd/5910704
These are just a couple of sources, there a so many more that have McCartin at the top end of the draft.
It didn't work out, but I have no problem with him being pick 1. In most cases I believe, like most, a gun key position player is more important than a gun midfielder.
Diabetes can be managed. That wasn't the problem. The concussions were.
There are studies that having diabetes can mean worse symptoms in brain damage after concussion. But there aren't any papers that I can find that say diabetics are more prone to concussion than anyone else.
I have found that there ARE studies and papers that suggest an individual is more susceptible to concussions and brain injury after they have already experienced some level of brain trauma.
And let's not forget that concussion is brain trauma.
But anyway, from what I have found it seems that concussions beget concussions and don't be diabetic if the begetting begins.
So, in my useless opinion, picking Paddy didn't work, but it wasn't because he wasn't rated and, probably, not because of his auto immune disease.
A bit like "a podium finish" rather than "gold medallist".
I agree with the sentiments that this stuff can eat away at you. I'd hope it is eating away at our Board, our Management & our well paid recruiters. I do not have much left to be eaten, just old bones & fat.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.
Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.
Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
OMG.Vazelos wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 8:53am I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.
Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
He's gone on to have a great career recruiting with North Haverbrook, Brockway and Ogdenville. Gold, BM.
If alcohol can damage your short term memory, imagine what damage alcohol could do.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
And by gum it put them on the mapThe Billings Method wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 9:27amHe's gone on to have a great career recruiting with North Haverbrook, Brockway and Ogdenville. Gold, BM.
Aaah the classics never die
This has made me smile
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Even the Pelican knew Trout had farked up.Vazelos wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 8:53am I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.
Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!
And he didn't need his spreadsheet to come to that conclusion.
The Saints are under review, will it make any difference to the underachievers ?
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Hold on a sec.Vazelos wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 8:53am I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.
Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!
Petracca came across as arrogant and self-absorbed?
That describes the vast majority of teenagers.
Trout, you had one job.
Idiot.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
It’s fascinating because it makes you wonder what they’re looking for.SaintPav wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 1:35pmHold on a sec.Vazelos wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 8:53am I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.
Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!
Petracca came across as arrogant and self-absorbed?
That describes the vast majority of teenagers.
Trout, you had one job.
Idiot.
Would love to get a bit more insight into this interview process, the questions they ask etc
My experience in 15 years of mental health assessment including forensics is that when interviewing people, their actual answers to questions are by far the least informative/useful part of the process...
You get a lot more out of understanding thought processes and approaches to problem solving etc
Unfortunately without context... you don’t get much. For example, Petracca being self-absorbed and arrogant in another context may be him trying to demonstrate confidence and attention to detail.
Oh to be a fly on the wall
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Totally agree.Ape_Man wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 1:01am Paddy wasn't some rank outsider in the draft. It is easy to say now that Petracca was the clear standout but McCartin was not just in the conversation, he was a genuine top level draft pick.
The Age had an article that had Heeny number 1, but he was always going to be a Swan.
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/201 ... 1nfn5.html
An interesting quote is:
After Heeney, it gets harder. Any one of Christian Petracca, Paddy McCartin, Darcy Moore or Angus Brayshaw could have come next on my list, they're so difficult to separate. I flipped Petracca and McCartin around so many times, I don't envy St Kilda's need to settle on one over the other.
ABC had Petracca 1, Brayshaw then McCartin.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-25/ ... nd/5910704
These are just a couple of sources, there a so many more that have McCartin at the top end of the draft.
It didn't work out, but I have no problem with him being pick 1. In most cases I believe, like most, a gun key position player is more important than a gun midfielder.
Diabetes can be managed. That wasn't the problem. The concussions were.
There are studies that having diabetes can mean worse symptoms in brain damage after concussion. But there aren't any papers that I can find that say diabetics are more prone to concussion than anyone else.
I have found that there ARE studies and papers that suggest an individual is more susceptible to concussions and brain injury after they have already experienced some level of brain trauma.
And let's not forget that concussion is brain trauma.
But anyway, from what I have found it seems that concussions beget concussions and don't be diabetic if the begetting begins.
So, in my useless opinion, picking Paddy didn't work, but it wasn't because he wasn't rated and, probably, not because of his auto immune disease.
I can’t see that McCartin being cruelly cut down by head injuries reflects poor recruiting by St Kilda.
Could’ve been a champion.
summertime and the living is easy ........
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Fair enough that's your opinion but I respectfully disagree given he was a key position player (big guy) who had shown some promising signs but was quite obviously still developing.Ghost Like wrote: ↑Wed 28 Apr 2021 9:00pm Agree with everything except your 2nd paragraph. I am quite confident that without concussions he would have been at best average. Average being his very best. Such a poor, amateur, poorly reasoned decision driven by flawed logic.
A good modern day comparison would be someone like Tom Hawkins - both debuted at 18 with Hawkins playing 19 games in his first 2 seasons and Paddy playing 17 games
Keep in mind that Hawkins played in a gun side in his early career whereas Paddy did not
In his career 35 games Paddy kicked 34 goals 36 behinds - 70 shots on goal
In Hawkins first 35 games he kicked 47 goals 26 behinds - 73 shots on goal
In his career 35 games Paddy took 159 marks (42 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & two 9 mark games
In Hawkins first 35 games took 177 marks (44 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & four 8 mark games
Also there were 5 games where Paddy had under 50% game time (two of those were 14% & 15%) - most of those were cut short due to concussion issues
Hawkins in his first 35 games only had one game where he played less than 60% game time and that was 51%
In conclusion, Paddy's career 35 games and some key FF stats were bang on par with Hawkins first 35 games ....... playing in a poorer side as well
Paddy was tracking just fine, unfortunately due to his concussion issues and little wayward kicking many supporters saw him as being shite ...... which is an indictment of those supporters not being able to see past his medical history and being drafted at pick 1
The kid could play!!
The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Comparisons to Tom Hawkins are not completely off the mark, though Hawkins always looked fitter and wasn't dealing with Type-1 diabetes.
So Paddy could have developed into another Tom Hawkins. A Travis Cloke.
But not a Roo.
And that's what you need from a Number One pick.
Especially when another Dusty Martin (Petracca) is on offer.
Right now, for that matter, Max King is looking like a potential Tom Hawkins at best. That's both good and sad.
So Paddy could have developed into another Tom Hawkins. A Travis Cloke.
But not a Roo.
And that's what you need from a Number One pick.
Especially when another Dusty Martin (Petracca) is on offer.
Right now, for that matter, Max King is looking like a potential Tom Hawkins at best. That's both good and sad.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
I think that is underrating Hawkins a fair bit, if he had been a number 1 pick his career would be in the top handful of fellow number 1’s
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Did you poison his coffee, Vazelos? Here's hoping you did.Vazelos wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 8:53am I’ve had coffee a couple of times with Chris Pelchen and he told me the following.
Pelchen remember was moved on before the draft but shortly before he left the decision was to take Petracca.
When it was announced on Radio they had taken Mc Cartin, Pelchen moved to the side of the road and called Elshaug.
He said” What happened why didn’t we stick with Petracca?”
Elshaug reply” we didn’t like his interview came across as arrogant self absorbed etc”
Pelchen’s reply” What is he? An Axe Murderer?”.
Shaking his head as he recounted the conversation and this was several years ago when Petracca was still finding his feet.
He was by far the best player in that draft.
He was the obvious choice.
Billings over Bont at the time was not the obvious choice so I’m not going to slay them over that one but McCartin over Petracca is a generational mistake!!
I curse that idiot weekly!!!
If alcohol can damage your short term memory, imagine what damage alcohol could do.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Fair call & analysis devilhead, however I'm unsure Hawkins would have gone #1, certainly first round. Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.Devilhead wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 6:53pmFair enough that's your opinion but I respectfully disagree given he was a key position player (big guy) who had shown some promising signs but was quite obviously still developing.Ghost Like wrote: ↑Wed 28 Apr 2021 9:00pm Agree with everything except your 2nd paragraph. I am quite confident that without concussions he would have been at best average. Average being his very best. Such a poor, amateur, poorly reasoned decision driven by flawed logic.
A good modern day comparison would be someone like Tom Hawkins - both debuted at 18 with Hawkins playing 19 games in his first 2 seasons and Paddy playing 17 games
Keep in mind that Hawkins played in a gun side in his early career whereas Paddy did not
In his career 35 games Paddy kicked 34 goals 36 behinds - 70 shots on goal
In Hawkins first 35 games he kicked 47 goals 26 behinds - 73 shots on goal
In his career 35 games Paddy took 159 marks (42 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & two 9 mark games
In Hawkins first 35 games took 177 marks (44 contested) - there was one 10 mark game & four 8 mark games
Also there were 5 games where Paddy had under 50% game time (two of those were 14% & 15%) - most of those were cut short due to concussion issues
Hawkins in his first 35 games only had one game where he played less than 60% game time and that was 51%
In conclusion, Paddy's career 35 games and some key FF stats were bang on par with Hawkins first 35 games ....... playing in a poorer side as well
Paddy was tracking just fine, unfortunately due to his concussion issues and little wayward kicking many supporters saw him as being shite ...... which is an indictment of those supporters not being able to see past his medical history and being drafted at pick 1
The kid could play!!
His medical history, diabetes, is very important. As was his ability to be on the park as a junior. Our due diligence & our reasoning was very poor. It is the concussion scenario allowing the incompetent off the hook.
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
If it weren't being a father-son pick could Hawkins very likely would have gone no 1 in his draftWaltzing St Kilda wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 7:03pm Comparisons to Tom Hawkins are not completely off the mark, though Hawkins always looked fitter and wasn't dealing with Type-1 diabetes.
So Paddy could have developed into another Tom Hawkins. A Travis Cloke.
But not a Roo.
And that's what you need from a Number One pick.
Especially when another Dusty Martin (Petracca) is on offer.
Right now, for that matter, Max King is looking like a potential Tom Hawkins at best. That's both good and sad.
"Many pundits lauded him as the best key position prospect within the draft, and felt Hawkins' junior performances warranted possible selection with the top overall pick, the father-son rules at the time only required Geelong to use a middle-tier third round pick to draft him. The subsequent controversy over what was widely acknowledged as a bargain gain for the Cats led to the AFL amending the father-son ruling for future use."
"In the mid-year of 2006, Hawkins was selected to play in the 2006 AFL Under 18 Championships, lining up at full forward for Vic Metro. A best on ground performance which yielded twelve marks and six goals in the opening match against South Australia began a wave of unprecedented hype and attention, with Hawkins drawing comparisons to former Brisbane Lions forward, Jonathan Brown and leading Vic Metro coach David Dickson to declare the young forward as "the best footballer I've seen...since Chris Judd". Hawkins was awarded the Larke Medal as the most valuable player within division one and named as the tournament's All-Australian full-forward, just falling short of the all-time contested marking record held by Justin Koschitzke."
The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
See post aboveGhost Like wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 7:41pm
Fair call & analysis devilhead, however I'm unsure Hawkins would have gone #1, certainly first round. Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.
His medical history, diabetes, is very important. As was his ability to be on the park as a junior. Our due diligence & our reasoning was very poor. It is the concussion scenario allowing the incompetent off the hook.
The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Hawkins listed as 198cmGhost Like wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 7:41pm Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.
Paddy listed as 195cm
Petracca listed as 186cm
Paddy took 10 marks in one game and 9 marks in two other games and several 7 mark games - sounds to me like like a forward who could get on his bike and move around
I understand that Petracca is a gun and agree that we should have taken him - like many on here he was the one I wanted us to draft at the time
however
I am just getting a bit sick and tired of forumites whacking Paddy saying he was terrible when statistical evidence says otherwise for a young developing key position forward
The Hawkins comparisons are not made up crap - without his concussions issues Paddy might well be kicking 4 to 6 a game now
Alas we will never know just like when he was drafted we never knew he would suffer from concussion issues
The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Think its time to lock this thread and move on ......... unless of course Petracca does another knee then by all means open it up again ....... Devilhead evil emoji
The Devil makes work for idle hands!!!
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Personally I would have been baulking at the diabetes issue.
Petracca was still the best player in the draft, but not the best key forward.
The importance of the decision here should have seen them minimising as much risk as possible.
Diabetes, skinfolds... That would have been enough for me. Thanks for your time but we are going in a different direction.
He would have gone to Melbourne. He may have had concussion issues, or he may not.
I reckon we gave him every opportunity and as much support as possible to succeed.
Ever seen the movie "The trouble with the curve"? Another example of putting self important flogs in charge of decisions like this.
Petracca was still the best player in the draft, but not the best key forward.
The importance of the decision here should have seen them minimising as much risk as possible.
Diabetes, skinfolds... That would have been enough for me. Thanks for your time but we are going in a different direction.
He would have gone to Melbourne. He may have had concussion issues, or he may not.
I reckon we gave him every opportunity and as much support as possible to succeed.
Ever seen the movie "The trouble with the curve"? Another example of putting self important flogs in charge of decisions like this.
"Now the ball is loose, it gives St. Kilda a rough chance. Black. Good handpass. Voss. Schwarze now, the defender, can run and from a long way".....
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Re: The decision to pick McCartin.
Well said and a good argument.Devilhead wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 7:55pmHawkins listed as 198cmGhost Like wrote: ↑Thu 29 Apr 2021 7:41pm Height is interesting as Paddy was /is not much taller than Petracca & severely limited in positional moves.
Paddy listed as 195cm
Petracca listed as 186cm
Paddy took 10 marks in one game and 9 marks in two other games and several 7 mark games - sounds to me like like a forward who could get on his bike and move around
I understand that Petracca is a gun and agree that we should have taken him - like many on here he was the one I wanted us to draft at the time
however
I am just getting a bit sick and tired of forumites whacking Paddy saying he was terrible when statistical evidence says otherwise for a young developing key position forward
The Hawkins comparisons are not made up crap - without his concussions issues Paddy might well be kicking 4 to 6 a game now
Alas we will never know just like when he was drafted we never knew he would suffer from concussion issues
The marks you talk about, did they end up in shots on goal. It is an era where backs peel off once forwards are out of range. I'm quite confident that in the possession game we now play, many players have multiple marks.
It's the ones inside 50 that count. I never saw anything to get excited about, his height being that of a modern midfielder. I think Flatracca is taller than 186 or certainly carries himself taller via ability, attitude & presence.