Melbourne watch
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- Enrico_Misso
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Re: Melbourne watch
7th spot locked in (or maybe 8th).
Pack of 3 (maybe 4 if Caaarlton win) on 32 chasing us on 36 with 2 spots available.
We now fall into the finals even when we lose next week.
Our higher percentage locks us into 7th.
All those narrow tactical losses have benefited our %.
Pack of 3 (maybe 4 if Caaarlton win) on 32 chasing us on 36 with 2 spots available.
We now fall into the finals even when we lose next week.
Our higher percentage locks us into 7th.
All those narrow tactical losses have benefited our %.
Last edited by Enrico_Misso on Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:17pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Melbourne watch
Ok ladder prediction assuming only difference is 5% between us in 8th (I’m not confident of winning at all)
We can lose to GWS by 16-18 points or less
Melbourne can beat Dons by 5 goals
We stay in 8 ?
We can lose to GWS by 16-18 points or less
Melbourne can beat Dons by 5 goals
We stay in 8 ?
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Re: Melbourne watch
If we lose it must be by small margin.skeptic wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:12pmMaking some assumptions...
Bulldogs win tomorrow, Magpies win tomorrow.
Going into the final round
Coll 38
St.Kilda 36
Bulldogs 36
Melb 32
GWS 32
A win guarantees finals.
If we lose assume the bulldogs overtake with a win. That pushes us to 8th
That means that GWS or Melbourne (if they win) need to make up the 5%
I am worried Dees beat Ess by a fair margin.....
Dees would need to make up about 4%
WE WIN .......IN
Last edited by chook23 on Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:18pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Melbourne watch
Can’t see how 7th locked inEnrico_Misso wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:15pm 7th spot locked in.
Pack of 3 (maybe 4 if Caaarlton win) on 32 chasing us on 36 with 2 spots available.
We now fall into the finals even when we lose next week.
Our higher percentage locks us into 7th.
All those narrow tactical losses have benefited our %.
“Yeah….nah””
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- Bowey Boy
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Re: Melbourne watch
NASA, can we confirm? Can we now miss?
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- kosifantutti
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Re: Melbourne watch
Absolutely correct, if goals are worth 2 points.johnearljames wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:10pm Go Dees!!!!
GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals.
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- perfectionist
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Re: Melbourne watch
9 goals.johnearljames wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:10pm
GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals...
I think: if the Bulldogs lose to Hawthorn, we are pretty certain to make the final 8. But they are likely to beat Hawthorn and win face the Dockers over there the following week. If they win both they will make the 8. Then it will be a matter of us or Melbourne. A combined win to them V Essendon and loss for us to GWS of 9 goals will see them take our spot.
Last edited by perfectionist on Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:19pm, edited 1 time in total.
- The_Dud
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Re: Melbourne watch
Good game of footy, both those teams looked a lot better than we have in a long time, will be tough next week.
Though the equation for us is still the same as it was before this game, we need to beat GWS.
If we lose but somehow still manage to fall into 8th spot, that means playing a full strength West Coast in Perth/Adelaide, with us coming off winning 1 of our last 5.
I would rather miss the 8 tbh, I think that kind of flogging could be the type that sets a young club back a few years, like it did to Melbourne when they went to Perth a few years ago.
Though the equation for us is still the same as it was before this game, we need to beat GWS.
If we lose but somehow still manage to fall into 8th spot, that means playing a full strength West Coast in Perth/Adelaide, with us coming off winning 1 of our last 5.
I would rather miss the 8 tbh, I think that kind of flogging could be the type that sets a young club back a few years, like it did to Melbourne when they went to Perth a few years ago.
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- Saint 58
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Re: Melbourne watch
It’s going to be an interesting Round 18
If other results don’t go our way, GWS would have to beat us by 9 goals (approx.) to take our spot.
I think that the only certainty is that Leon Cameron will be sacked at end of season
If other results don’t go our way, GWS would have to beat us by 9 goals (approx.) to take our spot.
I think that the only certainty is that Leon Cameron will be sacked at end of season
Last edited by Saint 58 on Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:21pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Enrico_Misso
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Re: Melbourne watch
I'm assuming the Dogs drop one of their last 2 games.Teflon wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:17pmCan’t see how 7th locked inEnrico_Misso wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:15pm 7th spot locked in.
Pack of 3 (maybe 4 if Caaarlton win) on 32 chasing us on 36 with 2 spots available.
We now fall into the finals even when we lose next week.
Our higher percentage locks us into 7th.
All those narrow tactical losses have benefited our %.
If they win both we fall to 8th.
Also assuming GWS doesn't thrash us as well as Melb having a big win.
The rest of Australia can wander mask-free, socialise, eat out, no curfews, no zoning, no police rings of steel, no illogical inconsistent rules.
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Re: Melbourne watch
Good result for us but a doggies loss could be a bit much to hope for as they are flying at the moment although the Hawks will not lie down which is probably more than you can say for the injectors giving the Dee's a fair chance of the percentage boost need. All could likely still come down to our last game a win making finals a certainty and a narrow loss still a slim chance. Unfortunately we are playing or worst football at the business end of the season
- skeptic
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Re: Melbourne watch
To be clear...
If we lose, it is definitely not locked in.
GWS can’t overtake us, even with a win... but Melbourne and the Bulldogs can.
Bulldogs will overtake on points and Melbourne have an opportunity to overtake on %.
It’s 5%. Means we can barely afford to lose and they need to have a slight win. Really, if we lose, we need one of them to lose too
If we lose, it is definitely not locked in.
GWS can’t overtake us, even with a win... but Melbourne and the Bulldogs can.
Bulldogs will overtake on points and Melbourne have an opportunity to overtake on %.
It’s 5%. Means we can barely afford to lose and they need to have a slight win. Really, if we lose, we need one of them to lose too
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Re: Melbourne watch
Yep...The_Dud wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:19pm Good game of footy, both those teams looked a lot better than we have in a long time, will be tough next week.
Though the equation for us is still the same as it was before this game, we need to beat GWS.
If we lose but somehow still manage to fall into 8th spot, that means playing a full strength West Coast in Perth/Adelaide, with us coming off winning 1 of our last 5.
I would rather miss the 8 tbh, I think that kind of flogging could be the type that sets a young club back a few years, like it did to Melbourne when they went to Perth a few years ago.
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Re: Melbourne watch
Dogs ought to win the last 2
Dees by my calc can’t beat bombers by more than 30
We can’t afford to lose by more than 15
We scrape into 8 to be slaughtered by Eagles a week later but hey.......made finals first time in 9 years ill pas the season off that .....even though we fell in....
Dees by my calc can’t beat bombers by more than 30
We can’t afford to lose by more than 15
We scrape into 8 to be slaughtered by Eagles a week later but hey.......made finals first time in 9 years ill pas the season off that .....even though we fell in....
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Re: Melbourne watch
Not as rosy as that.johnearljames wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:10pm Go Dees!!!!
GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals. That is not happening.
Doubt Melbourne would either unless they win by at least 50 plus points against Essendon next week.
This is based on us losing to GWS.
If GWS beat us by about 45 points or more they go above us.
If we lose, and Coll win one of their last 2 they go above us. If they win both, they go above us even if we win.
We are currently plus 110 on for and against, and Dees are plus 58, but having lower for and against. So if we lose by 20 and Dees win by 30 ( roughly ) they go above us. Any combination having that 50 point swing would have them above us.
If we lose and Dogs win both games they go above us ( that could happen also if we lose by say 50 and they have a big 50 point win and close loss).
So we could still finish 10 th.
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Re: Melbourne watch
Just to add that extra layer of complexity...
It’s a 52pt differential between our % and Melbourne's.
So if we lose by 20, they need to win by 33
It’s a 52pt differential between our % and Melbourne's.
So if we lose by 20, they need to win by 33
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Re: Melbourne watch
Yes - 2 years. They actually did the deal before Covid then had to wait to see what the soft cap looked like before they could fill in the number on the contract
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- kosifantutti
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Re: Melbourne watch
And the Bulldogs haven’t been the same team since they had to go to Perth and play the Eagles in the 2016 finals.The_Dud wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:19pm Good game of footy, both those teams looked a lot better than we have in a long time, will be tough next week.
Though the equation for us is still the same as it was before this game, we need to beat GWS.
If we lose but somehow still manage to fall into 8th spot, that means playing a full strength West Coast in Perth/Adelaide, with us coming off winning 1 of our last 5.
I would rather miss the 8 tbh, I think that kind of flogging could be the type that sets a young club back a few years, like it did to Melbourne when they went to Perth a few years ago.
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Re: Melbourne watch
For GWS it’s 102 points they’d need to beat us by to overtake us on points. Seems unlikely.
Looks to me like by Melbourne beating GWS, it’s essentially become St.K, WB, and Melbourne competing for 2 spots
Looks to me like by Melbourne beating GWS, it’s essentially become St.K, WB, and Melbourne competing for 2 spots
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Re: Melbourne watch
If we lost to GWS by 9 goals then just don’t even bother turn the lights offGeorge27 wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:25pmNot as rosy as that.johnearljames wrote: ↑Sat 12 Sep 2020 11:10pm Go Dees!!!!
GWS cannot overtake us unless they beat us by 25 goals. That is not happening.
Doubt Melbourne would either unless they win by at least 50 plus points against Essendon next week.
This is based on us losing to GWS.
If GWS beat us by about 45 points or more they go above us.
If we lose, and Coll win one of their last 2 they go above us. If they win both, they go above us even if we win.
We are currently plus 110 on for and against, and Dees are plus 58, but having lower for and against. So if we lose by 20 and Dees win by 30 ( roughly ) they go above us. Any combination having that 50 point swing would have them above us.
If we lose and Dogs win both games they go above us ( that could happen also if we lose by say 50 and they have a big 50 point win and close loss).
So we could still finish 10 th.
Pies against port Adelaide you’d have to say aren’t favourites
Dogs should beat their last 2
IF Bombers , after being smacked this week, front up for another sacking to Melb next week then they’re sacking the coach. Can’t see it I reckon Dees could drop that game
Shame we couldn’t just put it away when it mattered against eagles
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