What are the odds of sharing the load?

[shanegrambeau]

..financially?

Note the Melbourne GP ...not everybody loves motor sport but you all pay in tax for it.

How about footy, within the footy community for itself,

Members, Players - and pertinently, their managers, clubs, sponsors, TV stations with rights, ...

Will it be a dog eat dog situation, “I want my money back!” ...

I saw the TV of a horse race meet in Sydney yestarday - the organizers desperate to eek out some cash on the last feasible day for public gatherings.

It ain’t gonna be pretty. But do you think we will all just write off the costs (and for me there are none..just saying) or do you think there might be some industry agreement...some way of saying to each other, “tough luck”...like Eddie. CQuire alluded to in his “side by side” rhetoric. And just saying there was a spirit of that, there will always be lawyers hired by the big guns to strategize and device cunning ways of looking good whilst keeping their cash under wraps. Something tech ordinary member gdoesnt have access to.

If all the memebers demand refunds..the club goes broke? If the players demand full payments, the club goes broke? And on and on..

[samuraisaint]

These issues were discussed at length on the 3 Triple R Party Show last night.

Remember that players, like everybody else, as well as officials, rely on earning a specific salary, and they will live up to that salary.
For example, some elite players may purchase a property in Armadale, or a unit in Elwood.
Fringe players might buy a home in an area like Chelsea for example, and so on.
That mortgage has to be paid, or refinancing will need to be negotiated. But players have a relatively short window of opportunity to maximise those potential earnings.
The same could be said with the models of cars they purchase, private school or elite Catholic school fees for all of their kids (if they have them).


People tend to adopt the lifestyle they can reasonably afford. The events of the corona virus places the clubs' in an unenviable position because nobody can go along as spectators which affects their bottom line. I really feel for the clubs right now - especially ours obviously as I want us to do well.

The elephant in the room is that should the season be abandoned, according to that discussion last night, this places the AFL in a very bad position because the TV rights pay for content. And these are for really big bucks. The matches really need to go ahead because of this - look at the situation of the NZ Warriors in the NRL.

This is why the matches might need to be played mid- week, three times a fortnight etc, to try to fend of the potential disaster of the season being abandoned before the matches have been watched/consumed by us, the viewers and subscribers.

Maybe an antidote to the virus is found quickly and within a few months we all go back to normal - we all hope this, but it is a matter of wait and see. I think the way that Japan handles the impending Olympic Games will be an excellent indicator of how things will pan out.

[To the top]

My take is:-

A pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019

The outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020

On 11th March 2020, the WHO declares a Pandemic, citing both the alarming levels of spread and severity AND the alarming levels of inaction

The WHO includes that "we have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. It is the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus. And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled, at the same time"

On 10 March the WHO, UNICEF and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) outline critical considerations and practical checklists to keep schools safe, with helpful tips to parents and caregivers, as well as children and students themselves.

The WHO present that "We are not at the mercy of this virus" and "All Countries must aim to stop transmission and prevent the spread whether they face no cases, sporadic cases, clusters or community transmission.

And, "Every effort to contain the virus and slow the spread saves lives. These efforts give health systems and all of society much needed time to prepare, and researchers more time to identify effective treatments and develop vaccines"

"Every person has the capacity to contribute, to protect themselves, to protect others, whether in the home, the community, the health care system, the workplace or the transport system"

The take is "alarming levels of inaction"

Hence the upgrade of the risk, and, my assessment, giving preference to Health and Welfare including by dictating to government.

The Risk Grading changes the game.

The consolidation in this WHO intervention draws together the health concerns and the impact on the wider society, by forcing governments to respond to the elevated Pandemic Risk Grading.

The Financial Markets have been calling for government assistance and I quote Black Rock listing 4 fundamentals.

"give public health officials a strong incentive to act aggressively to mitigate its human toll"

Then the comment "but a decisive policy response is needed to safeguard fundamentals" (ahead of a recovery, which is anticipated)

"prevent a sustained tightening of financial conditions"

"help stave off cash flow shocks that would threaten to shutter otherwise sound businesses"

"support individuals whose incomes are eroded by the disruptions"

Consequent to the WHO acting, what we saw on Friday 13 March was governments (finally) commencing to act to protect the public including by offering support packages.

Specifically, we have seen the Australian government act (and I leave others to assess if the actions of the Australian government are sufficient. noting where Trump has been forced to by Pelosi in the USA to gain package thru both the Congress and the Senate)

Further, we have seen injections of liquidity, the RBA injecting some $9 Billion on Friday afternoon in support of our Commercial Banks.

Audit these actions (to date) against the Black Rock assessment.

The Markets are forward looking, thru the lens of expectation.

And they reacted as they did, courtesy, initially, of the language of the WHO.

The commentary of BNY Mellon detailing the identification of the recovery steps remains valid.

Interesting is that APPLE have closed their Stores, globally (noting their work from home iniatives in the USA, leading the curve)

EXCEPT for Mainland China (and Hong Kong) where their stores have reopened.

So they are replicating their China response globally.

In looking to transition past this disruption, we should be thankful to the WHO who have been the catalyst.

And, if I can add, we should be taking advice from those without agendas mired in ideology.

The human race, so you and me and our next generations, are just too important to take other than balanced, educated and pristine advice.

Frank and fearless advice, regardless.

Not "Full and frank advice absent a political veneer" being the words of Sea Hunt.

[stevie]

The NRL chairman is crying like a f****** baby. ‘NRL is the fabric of Australian society’. - what rubbish.

Look, things may get tough but worrying about sport is the least of everyone’s probs. I may be harsh but the govt won’t hand out money to any football codes ahead of small business. Well you’d hope not.

When I heard the guy whinging on the radio I just laughed as I was doing my Sunday workout. Wayne Bennett was dribbling s*** too

Christ, the EPL, UCL and NBA are all massively bigger than our comps and no one will be bailing them out

[Secret Kiel]

Banks will share the load.

Murdoch will share the load too.

[samuraisaint]

The NRL chairman is crying like a f****** baby. ‘NRL is the fabric of Australian society’. - what rubbish.

Look, things may get tough but worrying about sport is the least of everyone’s probs. I may be harsh but the govt won’t hand out money to any football codes ahead of small business. Well you’d hope not.

Christ, the EPL, UCL and NBA are all massively bigger than our comps and no one will be bailing them out

Agreed regarding the small businesses. Small businesses make up roughly 90% of all businesses in Australia and are a major employer and must be protected at all costs to ensure that the social fabric and basic economic stability of our country are supported. Well said!

But the NRL are a different kettle of fish to the AFL in the current situation because the NRL have the force multiplier of one of their more popular teams being a New Zealand side playing mostly out of Auckland.

In light of the new policy of everybody who enters New Zealand regardless of nationality having to go into self-quarantine for two weeks, when they must leave NZ every fornight to play over here, is going to make that team continuing to field a team in the NRL competition unviable. Not to mention the fact that the Australian teams would also have to go into two week quarantine when they play over there too - won't happen.

They might have to base themselves in Australia for half a year with all of the upheaval that that will cause family if they wish to continue this season. If they can't do this, then this will have an impact on, once again, their, and the NRL's broadcasting contracts and obligations. I really don't envy their position, I really don't.

I empathise with all involved.

This could cost the NRL and the team a considerable amount of money.

[The_Dud]

You’d think with this unprecedented issue arising that everyone would come together and see it out. Maybe the TV deal has to be adjusted slightly, and I’m sure the AFL is big enough to take a small financial hit.

[Secret Kiel]

Murdoch's role in this will be interesting. He has control of the cash and the game.

Similarly the way the banks around the world behave will be intersting to watch.

A new chapter could be added to the rule book after this crisis is over.

[shanegrambeau]

(I chopped up Samurais points here)

1) ...Remember that players, like everybody else, as well as officials, rely on earning a specific salary,
That mortgage has to be paid,

2)... I really feel for the clubs right now -
the AFL in a very bad position because the TV rights pay for content.

3)...This is why the matches might need to be played mid- week, three times a fortnight etc, to try to fend of the potential disaster of the season being abandoned

4)...Maybe an antidote to the virus is found quickly and within a few months we all go back to normal

1) Average player's career is 4.5 yrs on salary. How can they get a mortgage? Wheeling and dealing I suspect, with a lot of under-the-table help from clubs, managers and middle-men/women. I don't think it is very transparent, so I guess it would be difficult to manage. Players may buy houses in their brother's name etc., I really don't k now, except my life experience shows me that fringe dwellers - and AFL players are not 'normal' people, have unique ways, some of them disasters and some lucrative.
Conclusion : Players won't take a cut. They are tight anyway, and this will not change them, only steel their resolve?
Result: Future contracts may include an 'Earthquake or Epidemic Clause"...we can't pay if we can't due to providence throwing us a bad hand.

2) So do you think our members will want a refund? Could the government throw some cash members' way? Should they? If the GP gets it...(and they shouldn't IM ignorant 0) should footy?
Conclusion: Members will get a discount next year? Gov will give money to clubs to keep going. Result : St Kilda, being a poor club might do OK as long as the members don't kick up a stink? Maybe?

3) How about allowing the list to expand - a kind of supplementary situation - and allow all of the Sandy list to play for the Saints. Each club can list 70 players. One game every five days. (At Junction Oval - no, just kidding about JO) Players suspected of being ill or just knackered from playing so much, can be rested)
Conclusion; NFI...No f idea

4) China is already re-opening stores...! What the heck does that mean?? ...and re-infection has not been ruled out.
Conclusion: ditto point 3


Oh..and about Japan...my oh my...Japan has been in the mire for so long, how they wanted and waited and hoped for these Olympics...at this stage...how can it be run? The one thing to say is that the weather is really changing now and the sun is out. It won't be long before Spring is in full bloom, so it certainly is long passed flu season.

[saintspremiers]

The NRL chairman is crying like a f****** baby. ‘NRL is the fabric of Australian society’. - what rubbish.

Look, things may get tough but worrying about sport is the least of everyone’s probs. I may be harsh but the govt won’t hand out money to any football codes ahead of small business. Well you’d hope not.

When I heard the guy whinging on the radio I just laughed as I was doing my Sunday workout. Wayne Bennett was dribbling s*** too

Christ, the EPL, UCL and NBA are all massively bigger than our comps and no one will be bailing them out

The NRL bloke sounded like a moron.

NRL going under is no great loss. Shyte game and crowds. No loss

[stevie]

The NRL chairman is crying like a f****** baby. ‘NRL is the fabric of Australian society’. - what rubbish.

Look, things may get tough but worrying about sport is the least of everyone’s probs. I may be harsh but the govt won’t hand out money to any football codes ahead of small business. Well you’d hope not.

When I heard the guy whinging on the radio I just laughed as I was doing my Sunday workout. Wayne Bennett was dribbling s*** too

Christ, the EPL, UCL and NBA are all massively bigger than our comps and no one will be bailing them out

The NRL bloke sounded like a moron.

NRL going under is no great loss. Shyte game and crowds. No loss

Exactly! If the s*** hits the fan and all sport is canned, then the sponsors won’t be giving a f*** as they’ll be isolating like everyone else! The TV knobs will be doing the same

[To the top]

The injection of the $8.8 Billion by way of repo's by the RBA on Friday afternoon was to support liquidity and the banks given the market pressures on liquidity - along with calming Financial Markets.

It followed a similar move in the USA.

Hence the 14% turnaround in the ASX on Friday (from down 10% to finish up 4%) and the reverse of the prior day's 10% fall in the DJIA on Saturday morning our time, the DJIA finishing the day up 10% (both Markets closing at their day's high).

Liquidity is THE key (also noted by the WHO which is its own description)

The Central Banks have shown they will do whatever it takes (noting they are crimped on traditional monetary policy levers given where Official Interest Rates are).

Then there is the support for citizens by government - both in regards the health system and in regards financial security.

Currently there are a lot of people saying a lot of things (including Federal administrations) and this is not helping.

Defer to the experts (as always!)

I saw the Murdoch front page in Melbourne today - and it is a disgrace beyond compare.

I know he cannot give his media coverage away, but really?

[samuraisaint]

And now the A-League (National Soccer League) have the same problem as they have a team based in Wellington - the Wellington Phoenix.

Australia has announced that the same rules for entry now apply here to us and overseas visitors/returning residents and citizens, so any members of their sports teams will need to arrive before midnight tonight or face a two-week self-quarantine and won't be able to compete for a fortnight. If their families want to come over, to avoid the two-week self-quarantine they must arrive by midnight tonight too.

What a nightmare for them. My heart goes out to anybody in this situation, it really does.