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- perfectionist
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Flag tip
All things being equal, the chances of winning 12 games straight are about one in 4,000. But as we know in sport, all things aren't equal, especially in games where there are lots of players and so many other variables. Aussie rules has more players on the ground at any one time that any other widely played sport. It has more umpires. The ground is bigger. And the game is played over a longer time period than other "contact" sports. These peculiarities, plus others, make predicting a win somewhat perilous.
In round 15, two "out of the eight" teams sort to reignite their seasons at Docklands - it was 9th vs 11th, one with 7 wins and the other with 6. The percentages were both less than 100. At half time, we had taken our chances and led. Trailing by a goal at the final break, we played all over them for the first ten minutes, but unlike in the first half, we did not take our chances. From then on, our opponents did - kicking 6 straight.
Of course, our opponent that day was Richmond, and their win against us was the first of their current streak of 11. Sydney Stack kicked 4 and Mabior Chol kicked 3. It appears that neither will be good enough to play on Saturday.
Both Richmond and GWS have significant injuries and a number of players "under a cloud". They both have marking forwards who can (usually) kick straight. Nine years ago, we had a marking forward who could also (usually) kick straight. Our opponents had a young, tall and fast full back who specialised in negating a marking forward. He played the game of his life - or should I say - two games of his life - especially the second. It is history now that Nathan Brown did his knee in the first 15 minutes of the very next competitive game he played, a pre-season game, and was never the same player again, having lost that bit of pace that made all the difference. What might have happened had this unfortunate accident occurred at the same moment in either of his two previous games, we can only imagine.
It's true to say that every win takes you closer to your next loss. The team that takes its chances and has the most players available to take the field at the last change will win this game. My KOD goes to Richmond.
In round 15, two "out of the eight" teams sort to reignite their seasons at Docklands - it was 9th vs 11th, one with 7 wins and the other with 6. The percentages were both less than 100. At half time, we had taken our chances and led. Trailing by a goal at the final break, we played all over them for the first ten minutes, but unlike in the first half, we did not take our chances. From then on, our opponents did - kicking 6 straight.
Of course, our opponent that day was Richmond, and their win against us was the first of their current streak of 11. Sydney Stack kicked 4 and Mabior Chol kicked 3. It appears that neither will be good enough to play on Saturday.
Both Richmond and GWS have significant injuries and a number of players "under a cloud". They both have marking forwards who can (usually) kick straight. Nine years ago, we had a marking forward who could also (usually) kick straight. Our opponents had a young, tall and fast full back who specialised in negating a marking forward. He played the game of his life - or should I say - two games of his life - especially the second. It is history now that Nathan Brown did his knee in the first 15 minutes of the very next competitive game he played, a pre-season game, and was never the same player again, having lost that bit of pace that made all the difference. What might have happened had this unfortunate accident occurred at the same moment in either of his two previous games, we can only imagine.
It's true to say that every win takes you closer to your next loss. The team that takes its chances and has the most players available to take the field at the last change will win this game. My KOD goes to Richmond.
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Re: Flag tip
Why? Stuff 'em I say. I want GWS to win.
No one picked them to win against the filth either.
- kosifantutti
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Re: Flag tip
The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.
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Re: Flag tip
don’t care
had ‘my’ victory
that’ll keep me smiling all off season
had ‘my’ victory
that’ll keep me smiling all off season
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Re: Flag tip
Can't stand GWS and quite like Richmond, and they have a Reiwoldt. That's good enough for me.
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- Bernard Shakey
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Re: Flag tip
Giants!
I cannot support any of our traditional rivals.
I cannot support any of our traditional rivals.
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- magnifisaint
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Re: Flag tip
Not about iskosifantutti wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 12:06pm The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.
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- perfectionist
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Re: Flag tip
Actually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:kosifantutti wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 12:06pm The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.
P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring
This will be significantly greater than 0.5.
- Linton Lodger
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Re: Flag tip
GWS will roll them.
Its Mumford's last game, wouldn't want to be Nankervis or Soldo.
I'm tipping that the Mummy body slams Dusty within the first ten minutes.
Its Mumford's last game, wouldn't want to be Nankervis or Soldo.
I'm tipping that the Mummy body slams Dusty within the first ten minutes.
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Re: Flag tip
I want Richmond to win so GWS aren’t equal on flags with us. Plus it’s nice to see other teams suffer like us - the Freo GF loss was my all time favourite Granny I’ve witnessed. I wasn’t around in clickity clicks.
Mind you, imagine the devo Tigers fans if they lose - after last year’s stuff up!
Mind you, imagine the devo Tigers fans if they lose - after last year’s stuff up!
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- SaintPav
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Re: Flag tip
You think so?Linton Lodger wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 1:02pm GWS will roll them.
Its Mumford's last game, wouldn't want to be Nankervis or Soldo.
I'm tipping that the Mummy body slams Dusty within the first ten minutes.
They're capable but will they have enough petrol in the tank?
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- kosifantutti
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Re: Flag tip
You need to show your working.perfectionist wrote:Actually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:kosifantutti wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 12:06pm The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.
P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring
This will be significantly greater than 0.5.
Macquarie Dictionary Word of the Year for 2023 "Kosi Lives"
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Re: Flag tip
You have to love a mention of Bayes' Theorem on a footy forum.perfectionist wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 12:44pmActually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:kosifantutti wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 12:06pm The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.
P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring
This will be significantly greater than 0.5.
Good work
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Re: Flag tip
You have to love a mention of Bayes' Theorem on a footy forum.perfectionist wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 12:44pmActually, that's conditional probability and uses Bayes' Theorem:kosifantutti wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 12:06pm The probability of winning 12 games in a row, given that you have already won 11 is about 1 in 2.
Bayes Theorem tells you about the probability of an event A occurring given that you have witnessed an event B.
P(A|B)= ( P(A) X P(B|A) ) / ( P(B))
where:
- P(A|B) means the probability of event A occurring given that we have witnessed event B
- P(A) means the probability of event A occurring
- P(B|A) means the probability of event B occurring given that we have witnessed event A
- P(B) means the probability of event B occurring
This will be significantly greater than 0.5.
Good work
Nee!
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Re: Flag tip
Tigers for me. Plenty of mates who are lifelong Richmond fans. Don’t care if GWS are equal to us on flags. Hope it’s a good game.
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Re: Flag tip
Tigers by 32, GWS hang close for a while but Richmond push away and 4 games in a row 2 taxing (Brisbane heat the heavy track last start ) will take its toll.
Norm Smith : Basha - Should have won it in 2017 but everyone was Dusty blind.
Highlight ( Hope_ Tom Lynch Stands on Toby Greenes head taking a speckie and he is forced bleeding with stud marks to the cranium...hahaha
Norm Smith : Basha - Should have won it in 2017 but everyone was Dusty blind.
Highlight ( Hope_ Tom Lynch Stands on Toby Greenes head taking a speckie and he is forced bleeding with stud marks to the cranium...hahaha
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Re: Flag tip
GWS have monstered the midfield the last 3 weeks against probably the best 3 midfields in the business.
Hopefully this is closer than what everyone expects.
Hopefully this is closer than what everyone expects.
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Re: Flag tip
But GWS have a Hayes and a Schneider good enough for me
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Re: Flag tip
Petrol in the tank eh??SaintPav wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 5:16pmYou think so?Linton Lodger wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 1:02pm GWS will roll them.
Its Mumford's last game, wouldn't want to be Nankervis or Soldo.
I'm tipping that the Mummy body slams Dusty within the first ten minutes.
They're capable but will they have enough petrol in the tank?
They’ve got Lenny advising them. He knows what it takes mentally and has somehow instilled it into them this September.
Then there is the Toby factor. I’m sure he’ll watch Silence of the Lambs on Friday night and come out hungry.
I don’t think it will be enough to get GWS the flag, but I’m expecting a brutal, bloodied and bruising game.
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- ace
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Re: Flag tip
"Every win takes you closer to your next loss"perfectionist wrote: ↑Mon 23 Sep 2019 9:59am All things being equal, the chances of winning 12 games straight are about one in 4,000. But as we know in sport, all things aren't equal, especially in games where there are lots of players and so many other variables. Aussie rules has more players on the ground at any one time that any other widely played sport. It has more umpires. The ground is bigger. And the game is played over a longer time period than other "contact" sports. These peculiarities, plus others, make predicting a win somewhat perilous.
In round 15, two "out of the eight" teams sort to reignite their seasons at Docklands - it was 9th vs 11th, one with 7 wins and the other with 6. The percentages were both less than 100. At half time, we had taken our chances and led. Trailing by a goal at the final break, we played all over them for the first ten minutes, but unlike in the first half, we did not take our chances. From then on, our opponents did - kicking 6 straight.
Of course, our opponent that day was Richmond, and their win against us was the first of their current streak of 11. Sydney Stack kicked 4 and Mabior Chol kicked 3. It appears that neither will be good enough to play on Saturday.
Both Richmond and GWS have significant injuries and a number of players "under a cloud". They both have marking forwards who can (usually) kick straight. Nine years ago, we had a marking forward who could also (usually) kick straight. Our opponents had a young, tall and fast full back who specialised in negating a marking forward. He played the game of his life - or should I say - two games of his life - especially the second. It is history now that Nathan Brown did his knee in the first 15 minutes of the very next competitive game he played, a pre-season game, and was never the same player again, having lost that bit of pace that made all the difference. What might have happened had this unfortunate accident occurred at the same moment in either of his two previous games, we can only imagine.
It's true to say that every win takes you closer to your next loss. The team that takes its chances and has the most players available to take the field at the last change will win this game. My KOD goes to Richmond.
Any one half literate in mathematics will say cobblers based on each game being an independent event.
But games are not independent events
Players confidence and over confidence leading to laziness do have an effect.
Also winning past games can cause injuries and other physical handicaps impacting on future games.
But based on my knowledge of these two teams I say COBBLERS, Richmond will win
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When I was a young child, I knew that I knew so much about so much.
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- magnifisaint
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Re: Flag tip
1 in 4096
Anyone heard of Castilagno's theorem?
Anyone heard of Castilagno's theorem?
Last edited by magnifisaint on Tue 24 Sep 2019 7:55pm, edited 1 time in total.
Posting 20 years of holey crap!