Team vs. Hawks

[samoht]

desertsaint , I respect you as a saint supporter - and I'm not looking to justify anyone. I just want a fair and statistically valid assessment.
If it shows Newnes has thew worst disposal efficiency at St Kilda - so be it. I'll accept it.

Please look at 2017 - over the 22 games, and over our regular 22 players (i.e., those who played 10 games or more) ...and do a fair assessment for yourself.
If you want to post the results, it's up to you.

[dragit]

Dangerfield goes at about 65%, so the disp eff stat is pretty meaningless in isolation… Newnes is definitely struggling though, no doubt about it.

[takeaway]

All those stats. My head hurts. Only tell a small part of the story. Many stats that effect the game are not taken officially. PIPS and POPS.

Savage has certainly had a better year than Newnes to date and both should be in the team in my view, provided Newnes has no effects from concussion.

Anyway, hasn't he played 90 odd games in a row? Should at least get to 100.

[samoht]

Dangerfield goes at about 65%, so the disp eff stat is pretty meaningless in isolation… Newnes is definitely struggling though, no doubt about it.

Exactly right. Jason Blake, as a defender, had a disposal efficiency of close to 100% (by chipping it sideways and backwards), but when he was lining up for goal, I was looking the other way.
Anyway, Phillips uses the ball well - I was impressed with his game; if anyone is NQR or is slackening off, he's ready to pounce.

[desertsaint]

desertsaint , I respect you as a saint supporter - and I'm not looking to justify anyone. I just want a fair and statistically valid assessment.
If it shows Newnes has thew worst disposal efficiency at St Kilda - so be it. I'll accept it.

Please look at 2017 - over the 22 games, and over our regular 22 players (i.e., those who played 10 games or more) ...and do a fair assessment for yourself.
If you want to post the results, it's up to you.

I did - he was 14th, all ahead of him played a minimum of 15 games, most more, he was behind all those who play a similar role - well behind savage, roberton, joey, and geary, and behind webster - a sniff ahead of gilbert, who is lambasted on here for disposal.

Disposal efficiency of backs is generally well up on the mids who get the hard ball and often attempt to dish off during tackles. Yet Newnes was behind dunstan, stevens, steele, and acres.

i agree with dragit and yourself, in that you need to read much more into stats than the raw numbers - you need to know their role and what that entails. And with takeaway, that observation can tell as much if not more. But they do allow us to step away from our biases negative or positive about a player.
What i observed and what the stats tell me, is that Newnes has been poor for some time in relation to his role on field and as a leader. If he was a young up and comer i'd be happy enough, but he isn't. I honestly do think a stint at Sandy would help him - in a similar way that Dunstan found himself again.

[samoht]

desertsaint , I respect you as a saint supporter - and I'm not looking to justify anyone. I just want a fair and statistically valid assessment.
If it shows Newnes has thew worst disposal efficiency at St Kilda - so be it. I'll accept it.

Please look at 2017 - over the 22 games, and over our regular 22 players (i.e., those who played 10 games or more) ...and do a fair assessment for yourself.
If you want to post the results, it's up to you.

I did - he was 14th, all ahead of him played a minimum of 15 games, most more, he was behind all those who play a similar role - well behind savage, roberton, joey, and geary, and behind webster - a sniff ahead of gilbert, who is lambasted on here for disposal.

Disposal efficiency of backs is generally well up on the mids who get the hard ball and often attempt to dish off during tackles. Yet Newnes was behind dunstan, stevens, steele, and acres.

i agree with dragit and yourself, in that you need to read much more into stats than the raw numbers - you need to know their role and what that entails. And with takeaway, that observation can tell as much if not more. But they do allow us to step away from our biases negative or positive about a player.
What i observed and what the stats tell me, is that Newnes has been poor for some time in relation to his role on field and as a leader. If he was a young up and comer i'd be happy enough, but he isn't. I honestly do think a stint at Sandy would help him - in a similar way that Dunstan found himself again.

So if he's 14th it still leaves 7 regular players below Newnes, and if Longer is one of those players ahead of him, he should be removed (based on his average of 1-2 kicks per game -which would be chips, and he mainly handballs) - so that would make Newnes 13th out of the regualr 22 players. So there would be 7-8 players that should be pilloried ahead of him.

In disposal efficiency percentage points - how much more efficient were these 13 or so players (who had better disposal efficiency) - if it's only by 1, 2 or 3 %, it's neither here nor there,
And of the ones that were ahead of him last year, how many were chippers (like Brown or Longer) or lovers of handball (because handballs are also included in the disposal efficiency stats)?
Steele and Stevens mainly handball - so they should also be removed (if we're going to judge players on their kicking).
Newnes was above average and better than Ross and Steven - with his disposal efficiency....over the 2017 season.

[samuraisaint]

The 22 who take the field tomorrow night must treat this game as their grand final. That is the kind of intensity required. Their best players have their best behind them, and they have had to rush in Burgoyne to stem the bleeding.
We need to convert and Carlisle will need to play forward I think.
Not sold on Newnes playing 7 days after concussion. I think Marshall will come in this week, and quite rightly so too. We will need two ruckmen tomorrow.

[ace]

Wishing that Jade Gresham or Jack Billings get 'ommitted' at some stage as well

Both need a kick in the pants.

Someone has to give.
It is absurd using Acres as second ruck.

Marshall must play to provide a mobile tall target in the forward line and to take up the ruck duties in the forward line and second ruck.
A troop of monkeys would be better our selection committee.

[stonecold]

Wishing that Jade Gresham or Jack Billings get 'ommitted' at some stage as well

Both need a kick in the pants.

Someone has to give.
It is absurd using Acres as second ruck.

Marshall must play to provide a mobile tall target in the forward line and to take up the ruck duties in the forward line and second ruck.
A troop of monkeys would be better our selection committee.

You should apply!!!!! ;););););)

[WellardSaint]

Armo out of squad, replaced by Ben Paton...
official from club.
Some folks at airport have reported no sign of DWOODROW's bro,
so why didn't he go, if only for leadership?

[stonecold]

Armo out of squad, replaced by Ben Paton...
official from club.
Some folks at airport have reported no sign of DWOODROW's bro,
so why didn't he go, if only for leadership?

?????

[SaintPav]

NFI

[mad saint guy]

I'm disappointed that we've kept Newnes in despite concussion and recent poor form. Also think it's absurd how many half backs we have in the side. My preference would have been Marshall in for Newnes. Clark built into the game late and has shown a knack for bobbing up and taking his chances in front of goal and would like to see him continue to develop in the seniors.

[ace]

Armo out of squad, replaced by Ben Paton...
official from club.
Some folks at airport have reported no sign of DWOODROW's bro,
so why didn't he go, if only for leadership?

DWOODROW's bro given time off so he could go meet up with DWOODROW and family as he will not be playing this weekend.
Not required by St Kilda and Sandringham having a bye.

[Teflon]

I'm disappointed that we've kept Newnes in despite concussion and recent poor form. Also think it's absurd how many half backs we have in the side. My preference would have been Marshall in for Newnes. Clark built into the game late and has shown a knack for bobbing up and taking his chances in front of goal and would like to see him continue to develop in the seniors.

Agree re Clarke - we ARE NOT challenging much this year play the god damn kids who have some skill and give them some games to develop FFS stop playing 1 then dropping to keep hacks like Newnes (anyone defending Newnes disposal just needs to WATCH a game FFS - bombs all day and can’t hit a target)

Seriously this coach/match selection have lost the plot which is not “pleasing”

As I’ve stated football dept coach down to recruitment and development need an overhaul and we need a coach with some mongrel and match day smarts - this guys a bad school teacher

[samuraisaint]

If true, this suggests Armitage coming in for Newnes?
The two posters on here who have the inside track are tony74 and StoneCold - do either of you guys know if this is reliable intel? And if so, is AR thinking of playing Armo as a forward, because his field kicking was pretty unreliable in the games he has played so far this year which suggests to me that he is still not right from his injury last year?

[Sainter_Dad]

samoht and desertsaint

Re Stats:

Would both of you guys take a 23 yo 206cm second ruckman who averaged:
Kicks - 6
Handballs - 6
Disposals - 12 (9 contested)
Goals - 3 (at 100% accuracy)
Hitouts - 15
Tackles - 2
Clearances - 3
Rebounds - 1
Inside 50s - 1

Numbers rounded for ease of reporting



If so - look up Luke Lowden!!! lol

[asiu]

wow

thats cruel reading

least he got the 1

[samoht]

samoht and desertsaint

Re Stats:

Would both of you guys take a 23 yo 206cm second ruckman who averaged:
Kicks - 6
Handballs - 6
Disposals - 12 (9 contested)
Goals - 3 (at 100% accuracy)
Hitouts - 15
Tackles - 2
Clearances - 3
Rebounds - 1
Inside 50s - 1

Numbers rounded for ease of reporting



If so - look up Luke Lowden!!! lol

Averaged over 1 game in 2014 (the one and only game Luke Lowden played) - so a big no!! LOL!!
That's exactly the point I was making - you need to look at a player over a whole recent season where they've played at least 10 games, if you want to compare them fairly with their other regular team mates (who would similarly need to have played at least 10 games). You can't base your assessment on thin air.
This year, Newnes is NQR and playing below par - we can all see that (and the stats show that). I'm hopeful that he'll recover from whatever is affecting him and get back to his 2017 form - where his disposal efficiency was good (Newnes averaged 74.7% disposal efficiency last season, but this year, so far - it's dropped to around 67%).
Anyway Phillips could be ready to step into the breach, if any of our halfback flankers (including Newnes) slacken off or can't get themselves right or going (as long as Phillips keeps playing good football) .

So, as far as kicking efficiency goes (this needs to be teased out and inferred to a certain extent, as the disposal efficiency stat includes handballs) - based on what desertsaint posted earlier (over the handful of games so far this year) - and on Newnes disposal efficiency last year - Newnes would be sitting around 10th (out of our regular players - and probably about 8th - realistically if you take out the "mainly handballers" and "chippers", as well as the outliers, based on too few games played - such as Bruce - his disposal efficiency was nowhere near 85% - but closer to 60%, last year).

1. Nathan Brown 5 93.55 (doesn't deserve to be at position 1 - mainly handballs and chips - plus he's averaging only 2 kicks and 4 handballs)
2 Josh Bruce 3 85.69 (only averaged 60% or so disposal efficiency over last year - so this is not a valid position)
3 Nicholas Coffield 3 84.89
4 Jake Carlisle 5 83.33
5 Jack Steele 4 82.50 (mainly handballs)
6 Jarryn Geary 5 79.05
7 Shane Savage 5 78.63 (around the disposal efficiency of last year - and our best kick)
8 Tom Hickey 2 78.12
9 Jade Gresham 5 76.62
10 Hunter Clark 3 75.80
11 Sebastian Ross 5 75.36

[St. Paul]

If true, this suggests Armitage coming in for Newnes?
The two posters on here who have the inside track are tony74 and StoneCold - do either of you guys know if this is reliable intel? And if so, is AR thinking of playing Armo as a forward, because his field kicking was pretty unreliable in the games he has played so far this year which suggests to me that he is still not right from his injury last year?

Stone cold has the inside track. Hahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!!!! Funniest post of the year.

[desertsaint]

samoht, you insist n culling down all the players you can to lift newnes up to acceptable.
so here's some stats from 2017 against just a few players that play the most similar role.
different stats that show skill errors, endeavour, and ability to read play.
Newnes is highest in clangers, second in turnovers, second last in disposal efficiency, last in intercepts, second in tackles.
Of those players he was also a long way last in one percenters as well.

player - turnovers - clangers - de % - tackles - intercepts
Jack Newnes 4.36 - 3.05 - 74.29% - 3.09 - 3.64
Sam Gilbert 3.11 - 2.89 - 73.72% - 3.61 - 5.44
Dylan Roberton 4.95 - 2.32 - 78.56% - 1.73 - 6.68
Shane Savage 4.17 - 1.92 - 81.25% - 2.42 - 4.83
Jarryn Geary 2.55 - 1.91 - 77.69% - 2.55 - 5.55
Jimmy Webster. 3.56 - 1.89 - 74.55% - 1.78 - 5.44

bilnd mary can see he was below those players last year. this year he has got worse. last in tackles.
i brought stats into the discussion simply to show that the call to rest him was based on form, not any other reason.
On form he is one of our worst, if not our worst, this season, and was tracking backward last season.
I would have any of the above players ahead of him.
As a potential mid i would have every single mid above him, bar perhaps armo.
given he is coming off a concussion, a rest at Sandy seems a smart move.

[samoht]

We're going around in circles - let me recap for the last time, desertsaint. As I said, I have the utmost respect for you and all the saint supporters posting in this forum - I enjoy friendly discussions.
Newnes has been underwhelming, but I wouldn't say he's been our worst this year - and perhaps there are mitigating circumstances for his current form (he had surgery and an interrupted preseason - and the selectors have cut him some slack, more than likely??).
Why the selectors haven't been in a hurry to drop him, is that in the 2017 season, the stats show he does some good things (he averages 23 possessions at 75% disposal efficiency - he choose good options and had significantly more score involvements than Savage, who plays in a similar position and who happens to be our best kick. So,this should tell us that it's not all about kicking efficiency - it's about choosing the better option (kicking it to the right spots - where you're increasing the chances of your team to score vs kicking it accurately to the wrong spots, if you like).
Anyway, let's hope Phillips leapfrogs everyone - I was really impressed with his game vs Port Melbourne - I hope he keeps it up.

I just want to be fair to a reliable player who was not a top 10 pick - we can't expect him to be Dangerfield (even with his 65% disposal efficiency - as dragit pointed out -which I haven't checked, I hasten to add).
If Newnes can't turn it around - Phillips might be the go.

[StPeter]

Anyone know why Armo has been replaced as an emergency by Paton?

[desertsaint]

We're going around in circles - let me recap for the last time, desertsaint. As I said, I have the utmost respect for you and all the saint supporters posting in this forum - I enjoy friendly discussions.
Newnes has been underwhelming, but I wouldn't say he's been our worst this year - and perhaps there are mitigating circumstances for his current form (he had surgery and an interrupted preseason - and the selectors have cut him some slack, more than likely??).
Why the selectors haven't been in a hurry to drop him, is that in the 2017 season, the stats show he does some good things (he averages 23 possessions at 75% disposal efficiency - he choose good options and had significantly more score involvements than Savage, who plays in a similar position and who happens to be our best kick. So,this should tell us that it's not all about kicking efficiency - it's about choosing the better option (kicking it to the right spots - where you're increasing the chances of your team to score vs kicking it accurately to the wrong spots, if you like).
Anyway, let's hope Phillips leapfrogs everyone - I was really impressed with his game vs Port Melbourne - I hope he keeps it up.

I just want to be fair to a reliable player who was not a top 10 pick - we can't expect him to be Dangerfield (even with his 65% disposal efficiency - as dragit pointed out -which I haven't checked, I hasten to add).
If Newnes can't turn it around - Phillips might be the go.

ditto on the friendly discussion - we're all sainters here and should all respect that in each other.
all good on your views samoht, looking forward no one knows despite how resolute some of us get, just gotta hope the players find form and the team gels. carn the saints!

[Sainter_Dad]

Anyone know why Armo has been replaced as an emergency by Paton?

Junket trip to Tassie for Paton - and Armo had a more pressing engagement