Hit rate within draft ranges

[cwrcyn]

Just had a look at 2006 to 2011 drafts and the percentage of players who became regulars for their clubs inside of four specific draft selection ranges. Should give us and idea of our chances of securing talent. It excludes rookie promotions.

Draft range 16 to 25........... 50%
Draft range 26 to 35...........45%
Draft range 36 to 45...........33%
Draft range 46 to 75...........22%

After pick 45 your chances get pretty slim

[Con Gorozidis]

Just had a look at 2006 to 2011 drafts and the percentage of players who became regulars for their clubs inside of four specific draft selection ranges. Should give us and idea of our chances of securing talent. It excludes rookie promotions.

Draft range 16 to 25........... 50%
Draft range 26 to 35...........45%
Draft range 36 to 45...........33%
Draft range 46 to 75...........22%

After pick 45 your chances get pretty slim

Interesting numbers. Much appreciated.
Assuming we use our two 1st round picks next year that means we should get 3 more good young kids in to the club in the next 13 months.

[sunsaint]

I have always been of the opinion that swapping early picks for multiple latter picks can be fraught with danger
so - we have sold two drafts for picks and players and 2018/19 will try to rectify that (unless we swap again)
So the question is did we need more kids in the last two drafts or will we need them in two years time

[cwrcyn]

Would prefer if we did use our two first rounders next year on kids. A key defender and a midfielder would be nice

Just looking at the rookie draft, the hit rate is around 17%, so there's little difference between the rookie draft quality and the post pick 45 selections in the national draft. Some clubs have done incredibly well out of the rookie draft. We are not one of them.

[Bluthy]

I feel like Saints fans valuation of picks goes like this:

Saints second round given up for Freeman who's only managed a few very average VFL games "Very low chance of getting anyone decent with that pick anyway so well worth the risk. Very average draft year anyway outside the top 8. Didn't lose much"

Possibly trade down our top pick to get Hawks lower picks "I've heard its a superdraft. Very strong from 20 through to 50. We should be able to get a gun there. Could set us up for a decade. Can't wait to see who we get!"

[Jacks Back]

I feel like Saints fans valuation of picks goes like this:

Saints second round given up for Freeman who's only managed a few very average VFL games "Very low chance of getting anyone decent with that pick anyway so well worth the risk. Very average draft year anyway outside the top 8. Didn't lose much"

Possibly trade down our top pick to get Hawks lower picks "I've heard its a superdraft. Very strong from 20 through to 50. We should be able to get a gun there. Could set us up for a decade. Can't wait to see who we get!"

I can't believe we gave up a first round draft pick this year for and extra one next year. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

[Impatient Sainter]

I reckon withTrout and his team our hit rate will be about 75% in the 2nd and later rounds..much higher than the average!

[saintbrat]

How does our 2014 draft/trade year look?

2 clubs have now virtually wiped out any players they took in that year-
Gold Coast
and Carlton

[Rosco]

I feel like Saints fans valuation of picks goes like this:

Saints second round given up for Freeman who's only managed a few very average VFL games "Very low chance of getting anyone decent with that pick anyway so well worth the risk. Very average draft year anyway outside the top 8. Didn't lose much"

Possibly trade down our top pick to get Hawks lower picks "I've heard its a superdraft. Very strong from 20 through to 50. We should be able to get a gun there. Could set us up for a decade. Can't wait to see who we get!"

I can't believe we gave up a first round draft pick this year for and extra one next year. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

But none of them are in the bush; they are in the hand next year. Plus two 2nd rounders we didn't have. I can't believe anyone doesn't love that trade.

[shrodes]

How does our 2014 draft/trade year look?

2 clubs have now virtually wiped out any players they took in that year-
Gold Coast
and Carlton

Free agents:
Out - Gwilt, since delisted by Bombers
In - Membrey as delisted free agent, excellent pickup by us

National draft
PICK 1 - Paddy - Needs to keep the concussions in check and will be a superstar
PICK 21 - Hugh Goddard - Came from the Stanley to Geelong trade - TBA... need to see what he's like with more games
PICK 22 - DMac - Positive signs in the back half of the season. I am optimistic that he looks like a player.
PICK 41 - Lonie - Did some good things for us, not currently in contention for best 22

Rookie draft:
PICK 1 - Jack Sinclair - Has done some good things, great skills, not sure where he fits in the side
PICK 19 - Ahmed Saad - delisted
PICK 37 - Brenton Paine - delisted
PICK 54 - Schneids - retired

Rookie elevations:
Minchington - has shown glimpses, but I'm not fully convinced
Templeton - has shown glimpses but looks on the outer
Shenton - delisted today
Mav - love everything about him

I would say some question marks, especially on Lonie, Minchington, Sinclair and Goddard (for varying reasons). Excellent period where we got Membrey for free though.

[White Winmar]

It's harder than it looks. For all our angst, I still think our past four years have been better than most of the opposition. That's what it's all about. Staying ahead of the game relative to our opposition. I reckon we've done well.

[SuperDuper]

How does our 2014 draft/trade year look?

2 clubs have now virtually wiped out any players they took in that year-
Gold Coast
and Carlton

I guess you mean GWS and Carlton?

At least GWS have received some draft picks for some of their 2014 draftees

Carlton had one of the worst draft years since.. well.. saints 2009 I guess

[saint3d]

It's harder than it looks. For all our angst, I still think our past four years have been better than most of the opposition. That's what it's all about. Staying ahead of the game relative to our opposition. I reckon we've done well.

Good point. Some clubs have to be above average.

[cwrcyn]

Just looking through the top 15 hit rate.

Picks 1 to 5.....80%
Picks 6 to 15...70%


It seems that the superstar players are spread throughout the draft, with many in the top 15 being just solid citizens rather than stars. No guarantees, even with a top 5 pick.

[mad saint guy]

Keep in mind that a few of these drafts were heavily affected by the expansion team concessions and mini-drafts.

Here are just a few of the players Gold Coast and GWS acquired through zone concessions so these players never made it to the draft:

Rory Thompson
Tom Hickey
Zac Smith
Mav Weller
Brandon Matera
Trent McKenzie
Tom Nicholls
Charlie Dixon
Matt Shaw
Luke Russell
Steven May
Jeremy Cameron
Dylan Shiel
Adam Treloar
Thomas Bugg
Jack Hombsch
Nathan WIlson

As well as the mini draft selections:

Jesse Hogan
Brad Crouch
Jack Martin
Jaeger O'Meara

So if you take away the concessions given to expansion clubs I think the hit rate across those years would be significantly higher. I expect the drafts from 2012 onwards will look much, much better than 2009-2011.

[cwrcyn]

It does also appear that the system may be preparing young footballers better for the AFL, or that the talent identification and the assessment of potential recruits has improved.. There were some really poor drafts in the first decade of this century, particularly the second round of some drafts. Some clubs still make a meal of it, though, like Richmond and Carlton, and up until four years ago, Melbourne. I agree that, had there not been two expansion teams in recent times, the hit rate would have been much higher.