Shut the f*&k up about luck

[saintspremiers]

One thing that will help our doggy depression is the fact
that Jason McCartney who nearly died in Bali was the man who
built their list.

He thouroughly deserves all the luck he can get.

[dragit]

The dogs really are the new Hawthorn in terms of umpiring favours… they had an incredible run all year, particularly in the finals where they had 79 free kicks to their opponents 48… The last 2 games were very one-sided.

That doesn't make them an unworthy winner, they played great football in the finals and took their chances.

[samoht]

The dogs really are the new Hawthorn in terms of umpiring favours… they had an incredible run all year, particularly in the finals where they had 79 free kicks to their opponents 48… The last 2 games were very one-sided.

Well the free kicks went against them in the last quarter, that holding the ball and Swan goal was as egregious as it gets, but that's when they really got on top.
Also, I can't believe that Johanissen goal in the last quarter was reversed on review ... it looked over the line and was called a goal.

so when the free kicks and decisions went against them in the last quarter - they got on top, which means that the umpires would have helped them more by awarding more free kicks to the Swans?
There's a negative correlation with free kicks ... for the Bulldogs?

[dragit]

I won't go through every poor decision of the match, but I don't think many people will take you seriously if you suggest the dogs had a bad trot in the grand final…

[samoht]

I won't go through every poor decision of the match, but I don't think many people will take you seriously if you suggest the dogs had a bad trot in the grand final…

So Murphy, Wallis and Crameri - 3 certain ins - missing was good luck?
Having one less night to recover from their prelim which involved traveling to sydney was good luck?

Having those decisons go against you in the last quarter was good luck?

I hope we won't have the same good luck then with "3 of our certain-ins missing" when we get to our next finals.

It's bad Karma to see what the Bulldogs overcame as "good luck".

[dragit]

https://youtu.be/TqASXGI_9j0

[samoht]

https://youtu.be/TqASXGI_9j0

OK, I wont!

[Bluthy]

Of course luck is important. We've been cursed, the Bulldogs have been kissed.

The good news is that it tends to level out over time, so next time we contend look out.

re: kissed by good luck-
I don't see it quite that way. The Bulldogs had 3 certain ins on the sidelines --- Murphy, Wallis and Crameri. So 2-3 average footballers took their place.
They also had 1 less day or night to recover after their prelim. final win.

What about the "rub of the green" in the critical last quarter?
They had 2 decisions that went against them in the last quarter when the game was up for grabs. The dubious holding the ball (Boyd) - it was clearly not - that resulted
in a Swan goal and the goal that was reversed to a point - when it looked like a goal on the replay and was called a goal.

They just refused to let the odds - and bad luck - stand in their way.

The bulldogs had 18 more inside 50's - they were always trying to score and were playing positive football throughout, while the Swans kept defaulting to flooding/restricting.
When the umpiring decisions were going the Swans way in the last quarter, they didn't look like troubling the scoreboard - and it was the time the Bulldogs took it to another level.

Totally agree with you S. I think its a fantasy that dogs good luck or good umpiring to get them over the line on the day. I thought dogs slightly got the rub of the green and umpires are human and probably watch all the footy shows and get caught up a little in the romanticism but I don't think it sways them much at all. Buddy spent all game trying to barge his way through multiple tackles and I think should have had a couple more frees against him. Kennedy did one where he took on a tackle just got out, got tackled again and the umpire gave him stacks of time to get it and should have been pinged.

There is a confirmation bias where dogs win, must be lucky - here is all their lucky moments and ignore when it goes against them. We lost, we were unlucky, here are all our unlucky moments and events.

Dogs did a lot of big run downs due to their speed and efforts which gives you frees. They were often first at the ball and them moved it quick with handballs so didn't often get caught with it by the slow midfield swans.

There will always be moments of randomness in footy and sport. Its why we love it cos its unpredictable. There will be days when a guy gets out of bed on the wrong side and can't kick straight or is just off. But often something that seem bad luck (the ball hits the post and we lose by a small margin) can be peeled back to show its not just luck.

Lyons low scoring style in important games made those sort of moments into play than if we were 4 goals a better team. If we kick 2 goals in that last qtr we almost certainly win. Instead we kick none. Is that bad luck or not a good enough style of play. So then you ask "Should we have chosen Lyon?". He got us to two grannies (and now one with freo). But remember Longmire was in the box seat and he's now a premiership coach. Would he have won one with us instead of the Swans who had advantages. You can't know but these are better questions to ask rather than ruing some ephemeral "bad luck" from 6 years ago.

We played Schneider and McQualter and Eddy who were erractic players. And then we rue our kicking on the day or lack of class to kick goals. Is that a surprise or bad luck? Our forward press worked brilliantly for a year and then just seemed to drop off. Schneider and Milne were not disciplined players. Did Ross keep an eye on that? He seemed to have a habit of kind of forgetting about things eg. Ball not playing in the second half against geelong - how can the head coach not pick that up?

You can keep peeling things back to ask questions rather than just wasting time cursing "bad luck" . A lot of it is hypothetical and hard to have definitive answers for but I think you can learn more seeing if there are patterns that might help us this time. Its why I question Geary and Wright and Dempster. There is a lesson previously from us to learn about using players who are good defensively or do job but not good decision makers or users of the ball and that hurts you in grannies.

I don't believe in bad luck really. You make your own a fair chunk of the time by how you play, the players you play and how smart you do things. And it also saves your sanity rather than railing at make believe footy gods.

[bigcarl]

I won't go through every poor decision of the match, but I don't think many people will take you seriously if you suggest the dogs had a bad trot in the grand final…

Or against GWS in the prelim. 24-12 if memory serves.

Good effort by them to win the flag when they clearly weren't the best team in it, though.

[Johnny Member]

The Swans were cooked in the last quarter.

McVeigh was done, Mills was done, Franklin was done, Hannebury was done and Kennedy was done.


The 3rd quarter was where the umpires had the most influence.

They were terribly biased towards the Dogs in the first half, particularly the 2nd quarter, but the 3rd quarter was where the damage was really done.

[bigcarl]

The Swans were cooked in the last quarter.

McVeigh was done, Mills was done, Franklin was done, Hannebury was done and Kennedy was done.


The 3rd quarter was where the umpires had the most influence.

They were terribly biased towards the Dogs in the first half, particularly the 2nd quarter, but the 3rd quarter was where the damage was really done.

Yeah, I reckon biased umpiring is cumulative. It builds to a point where you just accept that it is not your day.

It was clear in every final they played that the umpires were behind the sentimental favourite underdogs. It's not cheating, though, just general incompetence.

[stevie]

Who is a better kick; Andrew Swallow or Jarryn Geary?

...right now...with what he has delivered as a player in 2016 I'd take Geary.

Does that mean that Geary is a better player overall?

Probably not but Swallow seems to have gone backwards.

Will Jarryn take his footy to another level and can he stay calm and have good effecieny
with his disposal going forward. I think yes

You must have awesome vision, Scollop if you can see Claude!!