The Watters - Watson Paradox

[White Winmar]

In view of the threads about our performance against the druggies, I wanted to point out that out of despair, often comes great good. I've named this effect the "Watters-Watson Paradox", in which someone's incompetence causes a great deal of short term suffering, but creates opportunities for enormous improvement.

I had the fortune, or some would say misfortune, of being consulted on the psychological reasons behind our spectacular collapse after the loss to Hawthorn in 1999. As you will remember, we kept on losing after leading games at half time, with the last straw being a loss to Collingwood, that year's wooden spooners. The coaching panel was looking for answers, as they didn't appear to have any. Even the traditional, bush piss up and honesty session seemed to have had the opposite effect to that which was intended. To say the coaches were right behind Tim would be accurate. Behind him as in ready to knife him. Interestingly, Al Clarkson was on the staff, but absent at the time. Anyhow, you know the rest. The mysterious form slump, which saw us go from second after ten rounds, to missing the finals, remained unresolved. After 10 rounds that year, choco Williams described us as the best team in the competition. By the end of the year, we couldn't beat an egg.

Watto's habit of consulting Kevin Sheedy, rather than his assistants, did not endear Timmy to anyone and led to a catastrophic loss of confidence in him. The following year a nadir was reached. Two wins and a priority draft pick. From the wreckage wrought by St. Tim, we salvaged the number one and two draft picks. The rebuild, around two kids called Koschitzke and Riewoldt was underway. The era ended in 2011, after 7 finals campaigns, 3 GFs and a new found respect for our club.

Just when we assumed it was safe that the club would build itself into a "Juggernaut", the great St.Kilda tradition of tearing down the house and rebuilding, rather than renovating, kicked into gear. The shock of Ross Lyon's departure surely affected those who made the bewildering decision to appoint Scott Watters. He must have mentioned the term "Juggernaut" in his interview. It didn't take cuddles long to emulate Tim. A reasonably promising start, narrowly missing the finals, was followed by our slide towards the bottom. Like Tim, Watters had no idea how to be a head coach. Much like his mate, Mark Neeld. Neeld and Watters were products of the autocratic style of Malthouse, while Watson was the victim of having only one mentor for his whole career, the over resourced and over rated Kevin Sheedy. The failure of the three men is no coincidence.

In any event, cuddles forced the club to take stock and reorganise itself. Make no mistake, the club was in dire straits at the time, with AFL backing and TV rights about all that guaranteed our future. The juggernaut era ensured we were able, or forced to jettison cuddles, Nettlefold and the recruiting team that had delivered us into that state. A new president, who uncovered the true extent of a mess left by the previous incumbent, a new CEO, who has proved to be a massive upgrade on his predecessor, a recruiting and list management team that is delivering at last and a coach who looks competent and stable. Throw in a return to our spiritual home, a solid alliance with Sandringham and recovery in the growth of membership. Add some exciting young talent and I think it's fair to say we are the most improved club in the competition, with the possible exception of the WB.

So, on reflection, Sunday was just a hiccough. A small reminder that we need to be on our game, no matter what the standard of the opposition. Even relatively poor performances have an upside. Four points and a wake up call, I'd suggest is the least we take from the druggy game. One thing the saints have always been good at is bouncing back from adversity. Goodness knows we've had enough practice! The Watters-Watson paradox lives on!

[felix]

So it was all Kevin Sheedys fault ..lol

[Vazelos]

That's a wonderful and interesting perspective of things... Well done... I actually think the same of Essendon who have found a couple of players that they were forced to play due to most of their side being banned for 2016 on top a number 1 or 2 draft pick and I believe long term they will be better off...
We made a plan, made some hard decisions and accepted our next window is 2018 to 2020 for playing finals..
We all look forward to the future...

[spert]

Interesting observations WW. I think one of the chronic problem with St K has been the lack of leadership and direction on and off the field. I thought the whole Stan Alves to Tim W period was poorly handled by the club again through weak leadership, lack of direction and committment.

I just wonder if a guy such as Watters, who had a window of success as a coach in WA, then assistant coach in an AFL premiership in the competition's biggest and most highly resourced club "has no idea how to be a head coach", then what is the magic credential to be a head coach? Did Yabby have a list of credentials that made him a head coach after being a serviceable half back who had hung up his boots?
I would suggest that the club leadership back in the '60s got their act together and worked and supported each other in a common goal to achieve a rise up the ladder and ultimately a premiership. I remember Blight and Clarkson being heavily criticised early in their coaching careers by club officials and some players, and some questioning strange approaches to coaching, but the clubs they worked with were strong and demanded support from the ranks, dissent was squashed and premierships followed.

In contrast it appears that Watters never stood a chance to implement any of his coaching ideas due to a total lack of and unwillingness to support through the ranks, still reeling from failures in the finals, back-stabbing, finger pointing, blame-shifting, and the reluctance of the club to at least take a few risks, and in the end looking totally stupid as a club with huge financial problems, by blowing a huge amount of money to get rid of the coach cover their own inadequate backsides as managers. That's history now.

Hopefully the club will show strong leadership and get behind Richo through thick and thin, as I reckon when he took the job on he would have been tossing around the past history of St K and how it handles coaches and failure.

[White Winmar]

There's plenty of merit in what you say, Spert. Moorabbin has been the "BERMUDA TRIANGLE" of the AFL, when it comes to coaching careers. Think of all the men whose careers disappeared without a trace after coaching the saints. The Watters comment you make is fair. A bit harsh of me to write he had no idea, however the head gig at an AFL club is vastly different to any other. Even the asistant's role doesn't fully prepare you for the top job. The vast majority of candidates have excellent records in lesser leagues and positions, otherwise they wouldn't get the top jobs in the first place. Watson was a notable exception and it showed. Watters was good at the lower levels, but I maintain his mentoring by Malthouse was a hinderance, not a help. Same for Neeld. Excellent at suburban and assistant levels, but a complete bust in the main job.

The points about the environment at St.Kilda are pertinent. One of the things that Tim couldn't adjust to were the lack of resources and the way the club was run. He was also in an environment where he was not hero worshipped and had people acting against him, hence the constant calls to Sheedy. Hopefully, the club has learned its lessons and we won't see the messiah complex behaviour repeated. Think Baldock, Jesaulenko, Jewell, Watson and Blight. Get the big name in and march to a premiership. As I mentioned in the original post, what gives me heart is that we seemed to have improved overall as a club. Things seem to be run better, there is an appearance of unity and the main players, the President, CEO, coach and captain all appear to be the "right" people for their jobs. I just hope this latest period of relative stability continues. 2017 looms as a vital year. If we don't make the finals, will the natives become restless and agitate for changes at the top? Would such activity plunge us into another cycle of bust and rebuild? I hope not.

[St Chris]

Watson was a bizarre situation at the time (only bettered in the bizarre stakes by his replacement!!) And Watters looked every bit capable of being a senior coach, he just lost his way as he went.

We can all look for the silver lining to every situation we find ourselves in, but surely its better to avoid those situations in the first place.

Which makes the decision to implement maximum terms on presidency and CEO-ship even more baffling.

[White Winmar]

Watson was a bizarre situation at the time (only bettered in the bizarre stakes by his replacement!!) And Watters looked every bit capable of being a senior coach, he just lost his way as he went.

We can all look for the silver lining to every situation we find ourselves in, but surely its better to avoid those situations in the first place.

Which makes the decision to implement maximum terms on presidency and CEO-ship even more baffling.

What are the maximum terms, St. Chris? I would hope we could hang onto Matt Finnis for as long as possible. I understand he is being groomed for the top job after Gil and that taking the saints job is a stepping stone. Long may Matt reign. I think he's been very good for us.

[St Chris]

Watson was a bizarre situation at the time (only bettered in the bizarre stakes by his replacement!!) And Watters looked every bit capable of being a senior coach, he just lost his way as he went.

We can all look for the silver lining to every situation we find ourselves in, but surely its better to avoid those situations in the first place.

Which makes the decision to implement maximum terms on presidency and CEO-ship even more baffling.

What are the maximum terms, St. Chris? I would hope we could hang onto Matt Finnis for as long as possible. I understand he is being groomed for the top job after Gil and that taking the saints job is a stepping stone. Long may Matt reign. I think he's been very good for us.

It was mentioned at the Town Hall meeting a few weeks ago - 6 years I think??

[White Winmar]

That's good. Six years is a fair crack at it. I hope he hangs around that long. He is considered a pretty sharp operator around the traps and is following a similar career trajectory to Demetriou. This gig is being seen as his apprenticeship, from what I'm told. Wouldn't it be good to have someone in charge who had a real interest in the saints and an understanding of our needs? Gil may barrack for us, but that's as far as it goes. A six year stint in any capacity at the saints would be seen as super stable. The only bloke I can think of having been there for a long time in a professional capacity is Bevo.

[St Chris]

I'm just not sure if it needs to be so fixed - in 6 years time, Gil might be doing a great job at the top, but we are now mandated to find a replacement for Finnis regardless. I dunno, obviously people smarter than me make these decisions, I just hope when the time comes to hand over the keys, we don't go back to square one...

[Wrote for Luck]

Watson was a bizarre situation at the time (only bettered in the bizarre stakes by his replacement!!) And Watters looked every bit capable of being a senior coach, he just lost his way as he went.

We can all look for the silver lining to every situation we find ourselves in, but surely its better to avoid those situations in the first place.

Which makes the decision to implement maximum terms on presidency and CEO-ship even more baffling.

What are the maximum terms, St. Chris? I would hope we could hang onto Matt Finnis for as long as possible. I understand he is being groomed for the top job after Gil and that taking the saints job is a stepping stone. Long may Matt reign. I think he's been very good for us.

To be glass half empty we have failed at; the Junction Oval, Wellington, stand alone VFL team, a women's team, and disgusting fixtures imo. Returning to Moorabbin is acknowledged but if you line everything up I'm not sure how well everything stands. Admittedly the club has good stability and culture it seems. In my view the communication method to supporters via Caroline Wilson re not having a stand alone team was poor and won't be forgotten quickly.

[Impatient Sainter]

Excellent recount of events WW a great read!

[BigMart]

Sydney, Hawthorn and Gellong have proven that great teams dont have to fall... they continually regenerate if the have good leadership and dont make silly decisions

[Wrote for Luck]

Geelong are the new Richmond in my view - uselessly topping up and no grand final for five years. Reeks of desperation.

[White Winmar]

Sydney, Hawthorn and Gellong have proven that great teams dont have to fall... they continually regenerate if the have good leadership and dont make silly decisions

Indeed, BM. They have shown there is another way to remain competitive. The conventional wisdom is that the competition is cyclical. You eventually have to go down to go back up. Those three you mentioned have shown that to be unnecessary. Throw Adelaide and WCE into that category, to a lesser extent, as well. It's just we seem to have been trapped in the boom-bust cycle of conventional belief. As always, it's the innovators who thrive and the followers who tread water. Hopefully, when we rise this time, we'll make a better fist of staying up. Being a minor club doesn't help, but success breeds success and hopefully we've learned from the Watson-Watters paradox!

[BigMart]

I think it's easier to remain at the top once you get there

Than get from bottom to top

Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon, Brisbane have proven that lengthy spells at the bottom are not going to ensure rebuild success

Good management does

[WellardSaint]

This is, IMHO, one of the best posts I have ever read in these pages, up there with ToT's "Essendope" comments.
High quality, that makes Robbo and Caro's stuff look like the ramblings of lunatics.
If those latter 2 could glean or absorb just a little of this quality flavour...

[BigMart]

Geelong probably won't

But could win it this year .... I'd like to have stk in contention

[White Winmar]

This is, IMHO, one of the best posts I have ever read in these pages, up there with ToT's "Essendope" comments.
High quality, that makes Robbo and Caro's stuff look like the ramblings of lunatics.
If those latter 2 could glean or absorb just a little of this quality flavour...

It takes genius to recognise genius! The cheque said in the mail, WS!

[White Winmar]

Watson was a bizarre situation at the time (only bettered in the bizarre stakes by his replacement!!) And Watters looked every bit capable of being a senior coach, he just lost his way as he went.

We can all look for the silver lining to every situation we find ourselves in, but surely its better to avoid those situations in the first place.

Which makes the decision to implement maximum terms on presidency and CEO-ship even more baffling.

What are the maximum terms, St. Chris? I would hope we could hang onto Matt Finnis for as long as possible. I understand he is being groomed for the top job after Gil and that taking the saints job is a stepping stone. Long may Matt reign. I think he's been very good for us.

To be glass half empty we have failed at; the Junction Oval, Wellington, stand alone VFL team, a women's team, and disgusting fixtures imo. Returning to Moorabbin is acknowledged but if you line everything up I'm not sure how well everything stands. Admittedly the club has good stability and culture it seems. In my view the communication method to supporters via Caroline Wilson re not having a stand alone team was poor and won't be forgotten quickly.

That's a harsh assessment, MS. I still think Moorabbin is our true spiritual home, not the JO. I don't think a return to the JO was ever seriously entertained by anyone in a position of authority in the government, local council and stakeholders. There was a lot of talk, but not much else. Wellington? Yes, a cross, but it may still be a beach head into NZ. The experiment hasn't failed, but it is on shaky ground. Hopefully Auckland provides the answer. Wait and see.

The stand alone team is also up in the air. The alignment with the zebs seems the way we are going. While I'd prefer to have a saints reserves team, the alignment seems to be going better than ever. Which team has a similar arrangement with its VFL affiliate and has won the past three flags? That's right, the Hawks. Makes something of a lie of the contention that you need a stand alone team to develop players properly and win a flag.

The women's team. I hardly think we could have done much more to state our case. We've been at the forefront of promoting women's issues, football, and the local women's comps. We were beaten by our competition status. Carlton got the licence we should have got. Mike Fitzpatrick, anyone? In any event, we're a monty to get one of the next two, as the Bayside flourishes in this area. Overall, far from perfect, but a huge improvement on the Nettlefold/Westaway regime. I think we're tracking well, considering our relevant importance to AFL HQ.

[loris]

This is, IMHO, one of the best posts I have ever read in these pages, up there with ToT's "Essendope" comments.
High quality, that makes Robbo and Caro's stuff look like the ramblings of lunatics.
If those latter 2 could glean or absorb just a little of this quality flavour...

It takes genius to recognise genius! The cheque said in the mail, WS!

Can you send me a cheque too WW? You have started a great thread here you genius

[White Winmar]

[quote="loris"][quote="White Winmar"][quote="WellardSaint"]This is, IMHO, one of the best posts I have ever read in these pages, up there with ToT's "Essendope" comments.
High quality, that makes Robbo and Caro's stuff look like the ramblings of lunatics.
If those latter 2 could glean or absorb just a little of this quality flavour...
[/quote]

It takes genius to recognise genius! The cheque said in the mail, WS! [/quote]

Can you send me a cheque too WW? You have started a great thread here you genius [/quote]

Anything for you, my dear Loris!

[loris]

This is, IMHO, one of the best posts I have ever read in these pages, up there with ToT's "Essendope" comments.
High quality, that makes Robbo and Caro's stuff look like the ramblings of lunatics.
If those latter 2 could glean or absorb just a little of this quality flavour...

It takes genius to recognise genius! The cheque said in the mail, WS!

Can you send me a cheque too WW? You have started a great thread here you genius

Anything for you, my dear Loris!

Hope it's an 'open cheque' so I can fill in the amount WW !

[White Winmar]

I wish I had the funds to fulfill your wish, Lori. Alas not.

[Bluthy]

I think the truth is there is a huge lottery element when interviewing these new coaches. Being assistant coaches they can all talk the talk about defence, zones, fitness, structures, rotations, contested ball, sliders, slippers etc etc and probably sound really impressive if they can speak well. How do you spot the one that can unpack the game and put it back together in a startling original way that gives you an advantage? For every Clarkson, the failure of many clubs with dud coaches shows that it is hard to spot them. You need to be able to spot a creative genius in the rough and then have the guts to back them despite the strange path they will take the club.

And then you have the fact that our club is poorly resourced and has tended not to be run well from the top which makes any coaches job harder. Remember Longmire was in the box seat to be our coach before Lyon slipped in and won the job. Would Longmire be a premiership coach with us, without all the huge advantages Sydney had being a well run club, AFL support and salary cap concessions?

I'm not sure Richo has that autisic-savant brilliance/rat cunning with tactics and game plan that premiership winning coaches have. At the back of my mind is the thought that after another 3 years and possibly more flags, Clarkson might be looking for a fresh mountain to climb. And winning our second flag would have to be one of the great mountains in footy. My mouth waters at the thought of what Clarko could do with the likes of Paddy, Billings, Acres, Carlisle, Goddard, Steven et al.