Pick 14

[desertsaint]

And that's why plugger, you've been proved incorrect before about drafting...

Every club that ever has a frdp just goes best player available

No one would be dumb enough to draft a type ... They are only interested in talent investment.

yet we drafted mccartin last year.

[magnifisaint]

And that's why plugger, you've been proved incorrect before about drafting...

Every club that ever has a frdp just goes best player available

No one would be dumb enough to draft a type ... They are only interested in talent investment.

yet we drafted mccartin last year.

Good point, but was he the best player in the draft....on potential?

[saynta]

And that's why plugger, you've been proved incorrect before about drafting...

Every club that ever has a frdp just goes best player available

No one would be dumb enough to draft a type ... They are only interested in talent investment.

yet we drafted mccartin last year.

Good point, but was he the best player in the draft....on potential?

Supposedly.

[BigMart]

Are you suggesting Trout didn't consider him the best player in the draft, yet selected him at 1?

[8856brother]

Are you suggesting Trout didn't consider him the best player in the draft, yet selected him at 1?

I think there is a good chance we didn't consider him the best player in the draft. Actually I am pretty sure we didn't. But the Boyd fiasco made us sit back and reconsider our tactics. How much is a quality forward actually worth.

Quality midfielders are a dime a dozen and are more easily accessible. Quality forwards aren't, and when they are available they are expensive. Do the maths. I think we made a calculated decision to draft a quality forward, who might not necessarily have been our top ranked player, but would be a bookend for the next decade. We will get a genuine quality midfielder via FA a lot cheaper and easier than a great forward.

Is Schache the 2nd best available player in this draft?

[Bunk_Moreland]

McCartin was considered the best player in the draft by the Saints recruiters

[saynta]

Are you suggesting Trout didn't consider him the best player in the draft, yet selected him at 1?

He wasn't rated the no 1 pick and then selected at no 1 for nothing.

[saynta]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/a ... 788a746aa2


"he kid with swagger has excelled at every level he’s played, averaging 25 TAC Cup disposals this year and winning 17 touches and seven clearances in a VFL appearance for Geelong.

Mathieson’s mum represented Australia in cricket while the Saints fan contacted last year’s No. 1 pick and former teammate Paddy McCartin recently for advice.

“Paddy said it’s all pretty cruisy if you work hard enough and you’ll be right and get treated pretty well,” Mathieson said.

But should Mathieson’s future teammates be wary about letting him into the locker room?

“I think those (dead rat) days will be done by then. There won’t be any of that going on.”




A saints fan too.

[desertsaint]

Are you suggesting Trout didn't consider him the best player in the draft, yet selected him at 1?

That's exactly what I'm suggesting. Instead we picked the player that we thought we needed most. Which is a lot smarter. Instead of picking 'the best player in the draft - we picked the player best for us in the draft! Many times they are the same, sometimes not.

[samoht]

I hope we don't go for another inside midfielder, thinking we need to improve on contested football.

The 2015 stats show we were on average/game only 2 short of the Hawks on contested possessions - averaging 132 to 134.
So we didn't do too bad.
Where the Hawks really had us was on uncontested possessions - 260 to 231 - that's 29 more uncontested possessions per game, on average.

29 uncontested possessions is like having another quality midfielder working for you - winning 29 possessions in the clear with plenty of time and space to create havoc and deliver pin-point passes - under no pressure.

That's the type of quality midfielder we should be aiming to draft - one with run and carry, with plenty of pace and/or evasive skills who can create more uncontested possessions for us - which are the most damaging of possessions.

[BigMart]

That makes no sense

If trout believes KPPs are more valuable, then he considered McCartin a better player head to head with (Petracca, I am guessing) due to playing a more important position - Key Fwd. Obviously he rates him a better player, picking him #1 confirms that, doesn't it?!

There is no way we wouldn't pick the player believed the best player, with the first pick... what a ridiculous notion

Personally I think that notion is a load of Rubbish

Who are the best players in the land (majority)
Midfielders.
Who are the majority of the best players of the modern era been
Midfielders

Fyfe, Ablett, Mitchell, Dangerfield, Hannebury, Pendlebury, Hodge, Boak, Selwood
Prior
Hayes, Judd, Bartel, Black, Cousins, Kerr, Lappin, Harvey, Harvey, Watson, Swan

Brownlows, Norm Smiths, Best and Fairests.... who wins them... the best players.

Would you take Fyfe or Kennedy if you could pick 1 for your team

in 2009/10
would you take Ablett or Franklin

[samoht]

BigMart

After the fact, knowing the quality of player that Ablett has become, it's an easy choice - Ablett of 2009/2010 every day of the week over most KPPs, even Kennedy or Franklin.

But re: pick 14 in the draft- we're not talking about known quantities here - are we?
We don't know how the young draftees will turn out - it's all very subjective, and debatable who the best available player is at pick 14.

So - as it's debatable - why not recruit to your team's needs?

That would absolutely make sense at pick 14.

There might be 5 or 6 players who you'd consider (even outside your team's immediate needs) as being a worthy pick 14 - but one of those 5 or 6 players may also meet your team's needs.
Why not choose that player?

So I don't understand what you're arguing about?

[BigMart]

Because you draft a player at 18 for what they can deliver from 24-28 at their peak age
100-200 games
What they deliver either end of that is a bonus really
Some like Armo will deliver little

So we are looking at a 10-12 year player... But are concerned about a current teams needs.

All you need from a draftee is ability to play AFL footy... Which is rare
Running ability Tom Reisbith
Height Cameron Wood
Weight Khan Haretuku
Kicking Arryn Siposs

Ability... No height, speed, jump Sam Mitchell

[Wayne42]

Can't wait for the draft to be done, then all this shite is mute, if it wasn't already

[Bunk_Moreland]

Nat Fyfe is the best player in the League 5 years after he was drafted and he was picked @ No.1 as it was obvious to all he would be a beast at 24 y.o.

Oh wait....he wasn't drafted No.1? The recruiters cant look into the future?...well I never

[kosifantutti]

Would you take Fyfe or Kennedy if you could pick 1 for your team

in 2009/10
would you take Ablett or Franklin

Would you take Tambling or Franklin?

Fiora or Pavlich?

I don't know what the point is so don't bother asking.

[Bluthy]

I hope we don't go for another inside midfielder, thinking we need to improve on contested football.

The 2015 stats show we were on average/game only 2 short of the Hawks on contested possessions - averaging 132 to 134.
So we didn't do too bad.
Where the Hawks really had us was on uncontested possessions - 260 to 231 - that's 29 more uncontested possessions per game, on average.

29 uncontested possessions is like having another quality midfielder working for you - winning 29 possessions in the clear with plenty of time and space to create havoc and deliver pin-point passes - under no pressure.

That's the type of quality midfielder we should be aiming to draft - one with run and carry, with plenty of pace and/or evasive skills who can create more uncontested possessions for us - which are the most damaging of possessions.

The Hawks uncontested possession is because of their brilliant system where they get men open as if by some teleporting magic. And the key is where are you winning the contested ball - in the middle where it really matters when its one on one or is where you have flooded/pressed and have numbers but you've sacrificed your structure up the field. Pace is over-rated - in finals the game becomes a contested battlefield where there is very little space to run. Rioli is brilliant because he can do magical, unpredictable things in tiny spaces. We've got Billings who can do that.

Lewis, Hodge and Mitchell aren't quick but they run all day, have big bodies that holds court in the heat of the kitchen with genuine ball winning ability that is in their blood. It's still the basis of the best teams - if you don't have the footy, you can't do s*** but chase. Hawks can keep their shape betting they will win the ball more often than not.

Dal Santo always struggled in big games because as an outside mid the oppo would cut off his supply. Only Armo is our gold ball winning midfielder and when he drops off, our team drops off. Dunstan is already standing up in the hottest part of the kitchen and I think will be a ripper with a better tank. Ross has potential but hasn't actualised it much yet. Acres has the size to stand up fighting for the footy. But we need to become the most dominant team at winning the footy to win a premiership. If we can get another Lenny type with pick 14 - tough ball hunting machine who uses the ball well I would be happy.

[samoht]

I just looked at the stats, Bluthy.
Dal Santo averaged about 10 contested possessions per game in 2014 - his last full season - and came 26th in the AFL overall for contested possessions - so i do't think he is just an "outside" player.

Pace can never be under-rated, in my book, anyway - but I also mentioned and/or evasive skills (in an earlier post).
We need to start adding midfielders with pace/run and carry and/or evasive skills (agility helps).

The aim is to create time and space.

What the Hawks do well overall is they hang on to the ball just a little bit longer, through pace/agility and/or evasive skills (Rioli has all 3) - by creating more space and time for themselves. Breust is as evasive as they come - zig-zags and hangs on to the ball until he gets a good shot at goal.
Rioli just needs to create 30cm of space for himself to get away and cause havoc - and his pace and agility as well as cat-like reflexes allow him to do that.

Hodge, Mitchell aren't quick I agree - but the Hawks have the right blend in the midfield - with plenty of pace and run and carry coming from Smith, Hill, Burgoyne, etc..
All I'm saying is we have enough inside midfielders, we could do with another couple of runners, evasive players in our midfield - to complement things and balance things out.

[Bluthy]

I just looked at the stats, Bluthy.
Dal Santo averaged about 10 contested possessions per game in 2014 - his last full season - and came 26th in the AFL overall for contested possessions - so i do't think he is just an "outside" player.

Pace can never be under-rated, in my book, anyway - but I also mentioned and/or evasive skills (in an earlier post).
We need to start adding midfielders with pace/run and carry and/or evasive skills (agility helps).

The aim is to create time and space.

What the Hawks do well overall is they hang on to the ball just a little bit longer, through pace/agility and/or evasive skills (Rioli has all 3) - by creating more space and time for themselves. Breust is as evasive as they come - zig-zags and hangs on to the ball until he gets a good shot at goal.
Rioli just needs to create 30cm of space for himself to get away and cause havoc - and his pace and agility as well as cat-like reflexes allow him to do that.

Hodge, Mitchell aren't quick I agree - but the Hawks have the right blend in the midfield - with plenty of pace and run and carry coming from Smith, Hill, Burgoyne, etc..
All I'm saying is we have enough inside midfielders, we could do with another couple of runners, evasive players in our midfield - to complement things and balance things out.

So as a fulltime mid he's 26th out of what, maybe 3 per team = 46 in the comp. Meh. And that is just the regular season. In the finals where its even more congested and intense he struggled to get into game the way he could he could through the regular season. And that's a reflection of having a lighter body and the mongrol required. And what exactly counts as a clearance - are Lenny and Ball shovelling it out to Dal so he can pick it up and get it out? That's the ambiguity of statistics. I say we relied too much on Lenny and Ball for our inside ball winning and were too predictable with insiders and outsiders (Dal, Joey). We need players who go can do both in big games so we can't get shut down inside or outside. I don't think we should be scared of taking a contested footy beast at 14 if he can use the footy reasonably well. Lenny wasn't our problem in the finals - he carried too heavy a ball-winning load hence why Geelong gave up the brilliant Bartel in the grannie just to shut him down. Jesus if we kept ball winning Ball on the field in the 2nd half against Geelong and had him the next year we could have 2 flags. Genuine fearless nose-over-the-ball players are worth their weight in gold in finals. Contested footy is king in September.

"Evasive skills" is a bit of blurry description. That tends to come with experience where they no longer panic with the footy but have the poise and calmness to keep their heads, get out of trouble and use it well. I see a lot of our new recruits like Billings, Acres, Lonie, Sinclair, McCartin, Dunstan having the footy-smarts to be really effective and creative. I think we have deliberately recruited "smart" footy players recently. Long may it continue!

[Con Gorozidis]

I think Emma Quayle usually gets close to the mark. This is her top 30.


http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/n ... kythc.html

Around our pick she has:

Burton 15
Balic 16
Bonner 19
Mathieson 20
(Tucker 26)

Note: She has four Academy players in the top 10 making our actual pick 18.

For me I really hope we get Burton. Yes he was injured but if he wasnt injured he may have been pick 1. If he is still there at 14 we must go for him.
Yet another draft expert who doesnt rate Mathieson as a top 10 talent. Did our club fall in love with him too soon or is this just another BS rumour?

p.s Also of note is that she rates Milera at 9th and Oliver at 10th so I dont like our chances of getting either of these two.

[samoht]

Lenny wasn't our problem in the finals - he carried too heavy a ball-winning load hence why Geelong gave up the brilliant Bartel in the grannie just to shut him down. Jesus if we kept ball winning Ball on the field in the 2nd half against Geelong and had him the next year we could have 2 flags. Genuine fearless nose-over-the-ball players are worth their weight in gold in finals. Contested footy is king in September.

No, Lenny wasn't the problem in the GF against Geelong - he was providing run and carry in the GF in the first half. He wasn't quick, but with his evasive skills he created time and space for himself and was thus able to run and carry the ball. So when he was shut down by Bartel, we really felt it.
Which demonstrates that you need more of these type of players with either evasive skills (like Lenny) or pace (like Hill, Smith, Motlop) - who can hang on to the ball and create run - to strike the right balance.

Ball was getting inside ball but wasn't providing any run and carry against the Cats (that's why RL took him off, in desperation - as inside ball wasn't enough) - he became a liability in the 2nd half when the Cats got on top of us and were running on top of the ground with Ablett, Varcoe and co cutting loose.
We had to leave Armitage out of the team as he was just another iteration of Ball.

That's why you need a few of these type of midfield players too - ones with with pace or evasive skills - who hold on to the ball and run and carry it, otherwise you get bogged down.

The Hawks would have struggled to make the eight if they didn't have Hill, Smith, Burgoyne with their pace and run and carry ability to complement Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis.

The thing is we are winning as much contested ball on average as the Hawks. If we had Hill, Smith and Burgoyne or Motlop in our team to complement Dunstan, Ross and Armitage - 3 more run and carry midfielders - we'd be a different team altogether and right up there with the best.
We need to strike the right balance - you can't just load up on inside midfielders and forget about run and carry, just as you can't just load up on ruckmen.
No matter how smart these inside midfielders happen to be - you can only carry 3 of them - and what the 2009 GF should have taught us is you do need 3 of the other type too (the run and carry variety) - to balance things out.

[Bluthy]

I just flat out disagree with you Sam about Ball in the grannie but that's an argument for another time.

Armo has stripped down a lot and has added some serious run and line breaking to his game which was a big reason for our improvement. Even Dunstan a player with only a 2 year AFL tank still gets around the ground quite well. Wait till he has 100 games under him - I think he'll be a lot more effective with the footy in his hand - I've seen him do some really clever little things. I think Richo agrees with me that all players should have an inside and outside game so we can't be so easily predicated and shut down.

Apart from those two those I can't bank on any other genuine insider players we have. Ross and Acres are yet to prove themselves. The club selected Acres because he is so athletic for a big guy. He has looked a bit slow but should be able to play low and high like Goddard. A lot of the other guys we have aren't genuine midfielders and will be more the second unit relief utilities eg. Weller, Newnes etc.

Plus we've got Steven, Billings and Freeman for dash and silkiness on the outside already (ok Steven's disposal isn't exactly silky but he's damn nippy) . Newnes is moving into the high level category for running all day. IF we had pick 5, I would tend to agree we should be able to get that player with real cream with run and disposal. But at pick 14 (sliding down to 18) then the reality is that cream will be gone. WE used our pick 3 on Billings which I think was brilliant and is the sort of player you are describing Sam. I know they say Billings will go through the midfield this year and has played that quite a lot through his junior career. He may well use his trickery and reactions to be effective in there but with his body size he will always find it hard to compete with the huge bodies.

AT pick 14 (18) I think we can get another Lenny type - genuine strong midfielder who has ball winning in his blood with pretty good disposal. I think we need that. We need backup for ARmo and Dunstan and to make sure they feel the pressure to keep developing their game and because of potential injury.

A lot of the run you are talking about comes from halfback and wingers. WE have Savage, Mckenzie, Newnes, Webster probably Rice and potentially the likes of Wright and Murdoch who can give that. I don't think we have "loaded up" on inside mids at all. In fact almost the opposite - we only have Armo and Dunstan. We need another genuine ball winning midfielder who has been hunting the sherrin as soon as he popped out of his mummy's tummy. I think pick 14 is perfect to get that guy this draft. Next year we could use our pick 6 or 7 or whatever it is for some more cream.

[samoht]

Good discussion, Bluthy.
Let's agree to disagree, then - and I respect your view!
If Freeman works out - then that would help our cause - and then there's Billings and Acres too, as you suggest, re: the run and carry department.

Let's hope if doesn't become if only.

One thing we appear to agree on is that we need to get this balance (between inside and outside run) right - and only time will prove whether we have. But we should work towards this end.

[Bluthy]

Good discussion, Bluthy.
Let's agree to disagree, then - and I respect your view!
If Freeman works out - then that would help our cause - and then there's Billings and Acres too, as you suggest, re: the run and carry department.

Let's hope if doesn't become if only.

There is no right answer. Unless they choose another ruck with pick 14. Then there will be a riot. Unless he's taller than Sandilands.

[joeyjohnw]

For pick 14, Ryan Clarke is probably still my #1 choice ahead of the other mids in our range. Just looks like an out and out gun, likes to get forward and kick goals, gets crazy amounts of the ball, clearance king, hard working pure mid. Read his write-up on afl.com.au; they say there is little downside. For some reason he is being put in the second round of the draft so will be there at 14, but he'll be the best from this draft in a few years, mark my words. If not him I'm still happy with Matho, but would hate to see Clarke at another club.