The Reason We'll Be Bottom For A Few Years

[saintspremiers]

Financially, Clubs can no longer afford to bottom out. Where is our membership today - around 27,000? .... and already declining.

Everyone knows that you have to be lucky at times with recruiting, but some always seem to be "luckier" than others - read Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Swans. It seems to me that they are "better" at it than us.

However, there is absolutely no excuse for continually recruiting poor kickers - the skill is there for all to see

32K

[CURLY]

Why is Geelong 'lucky' by topping up with draft picks they chose and developed. I would call that astute

They lost Egan. All Australian CHB at 25
Ablett the best player in the comp
Ablett 21 yo premiership CHF quit
Harley and Ling their leaders
Scarlett... Best FB I've ever seen
Mooney, Rooke.... Fwd line enforcers and key players.
Had serious injuries to players

Kept winningmdue to good management and fwd planning

In 2006 the Cats also picked up a top 10 player for free.

[suss]

Why is Geelong 'lucky' by topping up with draft picks they chose and developed. I would call that astute

They lost Egan. All Australian CHB at 25
Ablett the best player in the comp
Ablett 21 yo premiership CHF quit
Harley and Ling their leaders
Scarlett... Best FB I've ever seen
Mooney, Rooke.... Fwd line enforcers and key players.
Had serious injuries to players

Kept winningmdue to good management and fwd planning

In 2006 the Cats also picked up a top 10 player for free.

Their drafting has been immaculate - no doubt. Combine that with father / son luck (of an extraordinary degree) and a really solid admin and club structure and you get a winning formula. The coast lifestyle and lower cost of living doesn't hurt when trying to retain players either.

While I think the father / son rule will go down as one of the worst policy errors in AFL history (that has affected at least 7 grand final wins), they definitely deserve lots of credit...

[bergholt]

Basically we need to get the group of players in the 24-28/100-150 games category up to 10 to be any good.

When we were good (2009) we had about 12 players in that group.

Believe it or not we only have 3 of those players at the moment.

Gwilt, Gilbert and Ray...

Not sure if I agree completely with your cutoff, but for comparison, Geelong at present have:

Mackie (28yo/177 games), Rivers (28/152), Selwood (24/139), Stokes (28/135), Taylor (26/116), McIntosh (28/107), Varcoe (25/105), Hawkins (24/105), Lonergan (28/101)

Fairly strong bunch! Also in that age group are Dawson Simpson (5 games), Jackson Sheringham (5), Trent West (45) and Ryan Bathie (0).


Sydney not so many with 100 games but still a strong group:

McVeigh (28/197), Malceski (28/129), Grundy (26/117), Jack (25/117), McGlynn (27/107), Tippett (25/104)

Then Kennedy (24/89), Bird (24/89), Mumford (26/81), Smith (24/77), Morton (26/76), Everitt (24/61) and White (25/56). And Walsh with just the 3 games.


How about Richmond?

Deledio (26/175), Chaplin (27/143), Jackson (26/126), Foley (27/120), Riewoldt (24/115), Edwards (24/112), Maric (27/101)

And: Knights (26/97), McGuane (26/96), White (26/89), Grigg (24/89), Lonergan (26/79), Nahas (25/78), Houli (24/73), Petterd (24/56) and Morris (24/24).


You're right, Con, we're a long way from having any significant quality coming through that age group. Absolute minimum of three or four years if we start playing a decent number of kids right now.

But it's going to be hard for the coach to focus on rebuilding if he's bagged at every turn for a poor loss like last night. This will happen every now and then. The job of supporters is not to overreact Richmond-style but to understand where we are and appreciate the hard work and patience it's going to take to get back on top.

[sainter#4]

If we are to move our way back up the ladder ASAP - Watters and co will need to bring more young midfielders through.

Ross, Curren, Murdoch should all be getting games. CJ and tdl should only play if a more experienced player goes down.

Move saad to half forward and give him small bursts on ball.

newnes and sippo to the flanks gilbert to a wing, NDS to a hbf were he can get the easy ball and become damaging.

[Con Gorozidis]

Bottoming out does not guarantee anything

We didn't achieve
WB didn't
RFC haven't
Melbourne haven't
Carlton haven't

All clearly bottomed out

Agree. Getting talent is one thing.
Developing them and maximising ALL talent is another (not just focussing on elite juniors but a whole spread of players). We need a strong culture. Just bottoming out and expecting draft picks to save you is a terrible strategy. Ideally we do both.

But this is why Melbourne are so bad. Culture that thought just getting high draft picks would save them
Idiotic and lazy.

[sainter#4]

also young midfielders who cant get any games at the top teams or wanting to come home via expansion clubs or interstate teams should be a primary target for us.

Eg, Dom tyson - ready made lenny replacement.

i also would like to uncover an inside ball winner who constantly gets 30 touches a game as well as a shaun grigg type winger.

the pelican has consistanly shown he has found gems at both hawthorn and port so i am expecting this to continue here

[Con Gorozidis]

If we are to move our way back up the ladder ASAP - Watters and co will need to bring more young midfielders through.

Ross, Curren, Murdoch should all be getting games. CJ and tdl should only play if a more experienced player goes down.

Move saad to half forward and give him small bursts on ball.

newnes and sippo to the flanks gilbert to a wing, NDS to a hbf were he can get the easy ball and become damaging.

yep agree with this.
there seems to be a mentality that we need to recruit some ready made midfield superstars. in reality this probably wont happen. sure we have some salary cap room so no doubt we will chase a big fish at years end but as we all know with contracts and draft rules - its bloody hard to pull a big trade off.

so lets start the long grind with what we have - ross, wright, curren, murdoch and hopefully saunders and webster(wing) and maybe even ledger.

nds should move to a back flank now and use his nice kicking.

bring in someone like cockie as a late draft pick as a stop gap mature body to help out during the transition.

and then if we can get a high draft pick or three in the next two years we can get in some more elite junior mids.

[suss]

Bottoming out does not guarantee anything

We didn't achieve
WB didn't
RFC haven't
Melbourne haven't
Carlton haven't

All clearly bottomed out

Agree. Getting talent is one thing.
Developing them and maximising ALL talent is another (not just focussing on elite juniors but a whole spread of players). We need a strong culture. Just bottoming out and expecting draft picks to save you is a terrible strategy. Ideally we do both.

But this is why Melbourne are so bad. Culture that thought just getting high draft picks would save them
Idiotic and lazy.

This is why I think it's important that we have:

a. created an academy to develop the talent in the best possible way; and
b. invested way more money in our drafting department.

While we are in for a world of pain, the drafting / development strategy is right and will pay off in the end. If we get the recruitment / trading / list management strategy right too, I think we could play finals again in 3-4 years.

[Waltzing St Kilda]

we got within a hares breath

That's funny.

[BigMart]

Did we win a premiership?

Couldn't give a f*** about how close we got.... The cup is not in our cabinet!!! Pathetic that people hang their hat on almosts... Says a bit about our culture.... And supporter culture....

Near enough.....yadda yadda....

[plugger66]

Did we win a premiership?

Couldn't give a f*** about how close we got.... The cup is not in our cabinet!!! Pathetic that people hang their hat on almosts... Says a bit about our culture.... And supporter culture....

Near enough.....yadda yadda....

Who said close enough is good enough. Who is happy? Do you have a better culture because you complain all the time about our club? I certainly dont think so.

[Scollop]

Why is Geelong 'lucky' by topping up with draft picks they chose and developed. I would call that astute

They lost Egan. All Australian CHB at 25
Ablett the best player in the comp
Ablett 21 yo premiership CHF quit
Harley and Ling their leaders
Scarlett... Best FB I've ever seen
Mooney, Rooke.... Fwd line enforcers and key players.
Had serious injuries to players

Kept winningmdue to good management and fwd planning

Geelong didn't shoot themselves or eat their own either

The train was a chuggin along down at Sainterland and it was full steam ahead in 2004-5 with the Sainters a genuine top 4 contender after a 7 year hiatus. We had assembled a good group, we still had some brilliant players and we employed gifted assistants who were all brilliant teachers of our high draft pick selections and then............. things got 'derailed' at the end of '06.

Oh yes ...the GT haters and those with no real allegiance to St Kilda (e.g. envious media commentators and special comments retired footballers and retired coaches ) said it was the best thing for our club!! Imho, they are fuggin arrogant knobs who wouldn't give two hoots if we became another Fitzroy. And as for those Saints supporters who still believe it was the best thing for us because 'we got so close'...Good luck to you and you can keep convincing yourself that it was all for the best interests of our club

[gringo]

Why is Geelong 'lucky' by topping up with draft picks they chose and developed. I would call that astute

They lost Egan. All Australian CHB at 25
Ablett the best player in the comp
Ablett 21 yo premiership CHF quit
Harley and Ling their leaders
Scarlett... Best FB I've ever seen
Mooney, Rooke.... Fwd line enforcers and key players.
Had serious injuries to players

Kept winningmdue to good management and fwd planning

Geelong didn't shoot themselves or eat their own either

The train was a chuggin along down at Sainterland and it was full steam ahead in 2004-5 with the Sainters a genuine top 4 contender after a 7 year hiatus. We had assembled a good group, we still had some brilliant players and we employed gifted assistants who were all brilliant teachers of our high draft pick selections and then............. things got 'derailed' at the end of '06.

Oh yes ...the GT haters and those with no real allegiance to St Kilda (e.g. envious media commentators and special comments retired footballers and retired coaches ) said it was the best thing for our club!! Imho, they are fuggin arrogant knobs who wouldn't give two hoots if we became another Fitzroy. And as for those Saints supporters who still believe it was the best thing for us because 'we got so close'...Good luck to you and you can keep convincing yourself that it was all for the best interests of our club

Agree I was a big critic of the decision to let Thommo go. There will always be a little bit of what if there. He left us with an incredible list- one Ross pared back hard pretty much from day one. Buterss and Thommo let their egos impact us unfortunately and flogs like Robert Walls were all too happy to stick a screw driver in the wound and start twisting.

[Con Gorozidis]

So using the core game/age model to predict success tells me the Cats and Swans have their lists very well balanced with the 8-12 guys in the core group (big thanks to bergholt for providing this information).

The Tiges look a bit skewif - with too many guys in the core group.

And the Power look like they are getting very close to a sweet spot with their list. Expect them to be very competitive and play finals in the next 3 years.

25 - 112 - boak
26-154 - monfires
23-102 - ebert
26-114 - carlisle
26-83- Thomas
28-122 - Schulz
27-115 -westhoff
28-104 Logan


(23-50 - harlett
23-71 - gray
23-65 - trengove)

And the Mighty Saints - well we have a very sad 3 in the core/age group. Two of those are GOPS and one is injured.

On the upside we have 4 good guys approaching the core age/games group - Armo, Geary, Macca and Jack.

But we still have a lot of work to do to get up the top again. 4 years is realistic.

[groupie1]

Pretty simple. Free agency days, mate. Go and buy 7 guns aged 24 and we'll be good. My general feeling is we simply need some grunt and physique. We look slight and short. St Kilda in the market for 7 6'2" midfielders age 24. Go get 'em.

[bergholt]

Pretty simple. Free agency days, mate. Go and buy 7 guns aged 24 and we'll be good. My general feeling is we simply need some grunt and physique. We look slight and short. St Kilda in the market for 7 6'2" midfielders age 24. Go get 'em.

Unfortunately you can't get free agents until they're at least 26, that's the way the rules work.

[groupie1]

Pretty simple. Free agency days, mate. Go and buy 7 guns aged 26 and we'll be good. My general feeling is we simply need some grunt and physique. We look slight and short. St Kilda in the market for 7 6'2" midfielders age 26. Go get 'em.

[plugger66]

Pretty simple. Free agency days, mate. Go and buy 7 guns aged 26 and we'll be good. My general feeling is we simply need some grunt and physique. We look slight and short. St Kilda in the market for 7 6'2" midfielders age 26. Go get 'em.

Yep should be easy to get 7 gun mids aged 26. I reckon getting one would be hard but happy to hear your 7 names.

[bergholt]

Pretty simple. Free agency days, mate. Go and buy 7 guns aged 26 and we'll be good. My general feeling is we simply need some grunt and physique. We look slight and short. St Kilda in the market for 7 6'2" midfielders age 26. Go get 'em.

There are seven restricted free agent mids, no idea how tall they are.

Dale Thomas (25), Nathan Van Berlo (26), Mark Le Cras (26), Adam Cooney (27), Colin Sylvia (27), Kane Cornes (30), Scott Thompson (30)

Unrestricted free agents who are young enough:

Dylan Addison (25), Xavier Ellis (25), Alan Toovey (26), Matt Thomas (26), Daniel Jackson (26), Matthew White (26), Beau Waters (27)

And then there are plenty of others who are older: Heath Scotland, Ben Johnson, Brent Harvey... etc.

So out of that bunch, which ones do you want?

[CURLY]

Did we win a premiership?

Couldn't give a f*** about how close we got.... The cup is not in our cabinet!!! Pathetic that people hang their hat on almosts... Says a bit about our culture.... And supporter culture....

Near enough.....yadda yadda....

You are a flog of the highest order. Never been invovled in football at any level at any level I take it. Why dont you piss off under a rock and creep out next time where up you flog.

[dragit]

Good thread Bergs…

I was having a freak out about this last year and had a bit of a look at sides around us in terms of total games accumulated by players under 25…

This is from last year (oct), so will be slightly out of date, but still is a chilling read

Players who end this year (2012) 25 and under,

Saints
19 players
389 games
20 games average

Freo
27 players
926 games
34 games average

Carlton
32 players
1460 games
45 games average

Collingwood
32 players
1613 games
50 games average

Geelong
32 players
662 Games
20 games average

Sydney
23 players
933 Games
40 games average

from
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=78363&hilit=experience

[st_Trav_ofWA]

just a question to those who say they cant see the future A grade players in our list ... at what stage did you honestly start seeing Lenny as an A grader ? considering he was drafted in 1999 i personally only saw him as a genuine A grade player in 2004/ 2005 just as the great A grader Robert harvey was starting to slow down as Harves was getting less effective we found Lenny getting more effective with Lenny hitting his peak in Harves last lear and first year of retirment .... funny enough i see Armo starting to build as Lenny starts to come down ... our future A grader is quiet possibly a year or so away from really breaking through

[plugger66]

just a question to those who say they cant see the future A grade players in our list ... at what stage did you honestly start seeing Lenny as an A grader ? considering he was drafted in 1999 i personally only saw him as a genuine A grade player in 2004/ 2005 just as the great A grader Robert harvey was starting to slow down as Harves was getting less effective we found Lenny getting more effective with Lenny hitting his peak in Harves last lear and first year of retirment .... funny enough i see Armo starting to build as Lenny starts to come down ... our future A grader is quiet possibly a year or so away from really breaking through

I had Lenny, Rooy, Dal, Chips and Joey as A graders the first time I saw them train. I had Lovett marked down as an idiot and Schneider as injury prone.

[stinger]

Pretty simple. Free agency days, mate. Go and buy 7 guns aged 26 and we'll be good. My general feeling is we simply need some grunt and physique. We look slight and short. St Kilda in the market for 7 6'2" midfielders age 26. Go get 'em.

There are seven restricted free agent mids, no idea how tall they are.

Dale Thomas (25), Nathan Van Berlo (26), Mark Le Cras (26), Adam Cooney (27), Colin Sylvia (27), Kane Cornes (30), Scott Thompson (30)

Unrestricted free agents who are young enough:

Dylan Addison (25), Xavier Ellis (25), Alan Toovey (26), Matt Thomas (26), Daniel Jackson (26), Matthew White (26), Beau Waters (27)

And then there are plenty of others who are older: Heath Scotland, Ben Johnson, Brent Harvey... etc.

So out of that bunch, which ones do you want?

asad has been talking to toovey...not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing....but seeing how the bummers are travelling...maybe i will come down leaning on the good thing side.....