Saints, this is the future (news article)

[Old Mate]

LEGENDS are hard to find, even harder to replace, and in the next three years the Saints will lose some big names. That's the problem. This is the panacea.
ST KILDA football chief Chris Pelchen does not shy away from the size of the task. 

Over the next three years, the club will finalise what former coach Ross Lyon said was "an end of an era'' as he packed his bags for Fremantle. 

Nick Riewoldt, Lenny Hayes, Justin Koschitzke, Sam Fisher, Stephen Milne, Leigh Montagna. 

"Legends'', Pelchen called them. 

Replacing this band of warriors might be one of the toughest gigs in the AFL. 

But anyone thinking the Saints' cupboard will be bare when life without Lenny and Co begins might need to think again. 

Despite the talkback discussion that St Kilda's list has hit a roadblock, a revival has been underway for two years, with 19 new players drafted since Lyon left.

Granted, a chunk of those new faces are still unseen. 

But after a lean drafting stretch from 2008-10, the Saints' new football administration has overseen a shift to a level recruiting analysis Pelchen deemed to be among the most thorough he has seen in 30 years in the AFL.

Certainly, he said, the scrupulous sorting of draft talents, headed by recruiting boss Tony Elshaug, list manager Ameet Baines and veteran draft guru John Beveridge, was more detailed than anything St Kilda had produced in the past. 

"Not taking anything away from any of the clubs I have worked for, but the amount of work these guys are doing, across our whole recruiting network, is the equal of anything of anything I've been involved in,'' Pelchen said. 

"The way of modern recruiting is about applying objective data to your decision-making and that's something we have applied great focus on.''

There have been some surprises along the way. 

Brendon Goddard's decision to leave was one. What the club has done with its three highest draft choices since 2011 was perhaps another twist. 

At a time when the draft order is king, the Saints have off-loaded picks 12, 13 and 20 in exchange for packages of picks and players, which have yielded eight newcomers. 

Pelchen is "extremely confident'' the multi-player strategy was the right one, given the past two draft pools were heavily weakened by the compensation picks to the two start-up clubs. 

"We weren't going to get a pure selection 12, pure selection 13, or in 2011, a pure selection 20 because the draft had been so heavily compromised,'' he said. 

"So we actually took a strategic view as to how can we better serve our playing group going forward. That was to try and multiply the return on every stand-alone selection.''

It meant that as much as its list was ageing, the Saints needed some mature-age talent as well as younger players. Partly to help maintain the winning culture that the club values so highly and to help correct some of the draft misses from 2006-10.

So, in 2011, St Kilda swapped pick 20 for Seb Ross, Terry Milera and Ahmed Saad. Ross is a tough left-footed midfielder, while Milera and Saad's impact has been immediate, booting 47 goals combined last year. 

Likewise, pick 12 last year secured WAFL leading goalkicker Tom Lee and midfielders Josh Saunders and Nathan Wright. In his first game last weekend Wright (below) ran 17km and gathered 22 disposals at 81 per cent efficiency. 

The Goddard compensation pick landed Gold Coast's Tom Hickey, helping fix a major ruck problem, and, ultra-athletic forward Spencer White. Pelchen said the club was "disappointed'' Goddard left but that it "had to make deliberate and considered decisions in the best interest of the club''. 

"It is really important that we didn't allow the draft just to dictate to us that we were going to have one pick to replace one player,'' he said. 

"People will say Tom Lee was for pick No.12, but that is not the case. We would not have actually consummated that deal if it was purely pick 12 for Tom Lee. 

"I'm extremely confident that these guys are going to form a very strong nucleus of the St Kilda side for the next decade.''

Importantly, St Kilda's system is based on the premierships models Pelchen oversaw at Port Adelaide (2004) and Hawthorn (2008), laying proven foundation to the club's recruiting formula.

Leafs have also been taken from Sydney's more contemporary recycling theory and Geelong.

Without the start-up club concessions clouding the quality of draft, this year the club is more likely to hang on to its top pick. But there is no chance the Saints will deliberately dip to the lower reaches of the ladder. 

"I don't believe any club should have aspirations to go to the bottom of the ladder. In an 18-team competition, it's a long way up,'' he said.

"We think there is a much better cause to be served by developing players in a winning environment than in a losing one.''

In a bid to fast-track their players' progress, St Kilda has invested heavily in its academy program, based on the model at soccer giant Barcelona. 

Development, sports science and welfare staff have been doubled, helping the club put a near-equal emphasis on players' on and off-field development. 

Pelchen said the club would stagger retirements to ensure there was no mass exodus.

"We've been very mindful of the fact we've had a very talented list, which has been very successful for a decade,'' he said. 

"It's critical we step those retirements which allow us to bring young players through and importantly learn from these older players,'' he said.

"You need players who have experienced the highs and lows, and the changes associated with living in a professional sporting environment.''

THE POWER OF THREE

How St Kilda traded its first-round picks

2012
OUT 
Pick No. 12 (GWS used on Kristian Jaksch)
IN 
Tom Lee (GWS pre-list) forward
Nathan Wright (No. 24) midfielder
Josh Saunders (No.43) midfielder
OUT
Pick No. 13 (Gold Coast used on Jesse Lonergan)
IN
Tom Hickey (Gold Coast) ruckman
Spencer White (No.25) key forward
(Plus an improvement of other picks)

2011
OUT
Pick No. 20 (Fremantle used on Hayden Crozier)
IN
Seb Ross (No. 25) midfielder
Ahmed Saad (GWS pre-list) small forward
Terry Milera (GWS pre-list) small forward

[Old Mate]

Really interesting article i thought id share. certainly gives me confidence for the future.

[plugger66]

Im not sure the pick 13 one is correct. Didnt we lose other picks?

[bobmurray]

Really interesting article i thought id share. certainly gives me confidence for the future.

Great article, good to have it summarised in one article, however , I think we've discussed all of that on here, albeit in sections over a few years....

[Old Mate]

Im not sure the pick 13 one is correct. Didnt we lose other picks?

You could say we swapped Hickey for pick 13 and upgraded pick 37 to 26 (Spencer White) and 57 to 47 (Trent Dennis-Lane).

[saintly]

LEGENDS are hard to find, even harder to replace, and in the next three years the Saints will lose some big names. That's the problem. This is the panacea.
ST KILDA football chief Chris Pelchen does not shy away from the size of the task. 

Over the next three years, the club will finalise what former coach Ross Lyon said was "an end of an era'' as he packed his bags for Fremantle. 

Nick Riewoldt, Lenny Hayes, Justin Koschitzke, Sam Fisher, Stephen Milne, Leigh Montagna. 

"Legends'', Pelchen called them. 

Replacing this band of warriors might be one of the toughest gigs in the AFL. 

But anyone thinking the Saints' cupboard will be bare when life without Lenny and Co begins might need to think again. 

Despite the talkback discussion that St Kilda's list has hit a roadblock, a revival has been underway for two years, with 19 new players drafted since Lyon left.

Granted, a chunk of those new faces are still unseen. 

But after a lean drafting stretch from 2008-10, the Saints' new football administration has overseen a shift to a level recruiting analysis Pelchen deemed to be among the most thorough he has seen in 30 years in the AFL.

Certainly, he said, the scrupulous sorting of draft talents, headed by recruiting boss Tony Elshaug, list manager Ameet Baines and veteran draft guru John Beveridge, was more detailed than anything St Kilda had produced in the past. 

"Not taking anything away from any of the clubs I have worked for, but the amount of work these guys are doing, across our whole recruiting network, is the equal of anything of anything I've been involved in,'' Pelchen said. 

"The way of modern recruiting is about applying objective data to your decision-making and that's something we have applied great focus on.''

There have been some surprises along the way. 

Brendon Goddard's decision to leave was one. What the club has done with its three highest draft choices since 2011 was perhaps another twist. 

At a time when the draft order is king, the Saints have off-loaded picks 12, 13 and 20 in exchange for packages of picks and players, which have yielded eight newcomers. 

Pelchen is "extremely confident'' the multi-player strategy was the right one, given the past two draft pools were heavily weakened by the compensation picks to the two start-up clubs. 

"We weren't going to get a pure selection 12, pure selection 13, or in 2011, a pure selection 20 because the draft had been so heavily compromised,'' he said. 

"So we actually took a strategic view as to how can we better serve our playing group going forward. That was to try and multiply the return on every stand-alone selection.''

It meant that as much as its list was ageing, the Saints needed some mature-age talent as well as younger players. Partly to help maintain the winning culture that the club values so highly and to help correct some of the draft misses from 2006-10.

So, in 2011, St Kilda swapped pick 20 for Seb Ross, Terry Milera and Ahmed Saad. Ross is a tough left-footed midfielder, while Milera and Saad's impact has been immediate, booting 47 goals combined last year. 

Likewise, pick 12 last year secured WAFL leading goalkicker Tom Lee and midfielders Josh Saunders and Nathan Wright. In his first game last weekend Wright (below) ran 17km and gathered 22 disposals at 81 per cent efficiency. 

The Goddard compensation pick landed Gold Coast's Tom Hickey, helping fix a major ruck problem, and, ultra-athletic forward Spencer White. Pelchen said the club was "disappointed'' Goddard left but that it "had to make deliberate and considered decisions in the best interest of the club''. 

"It is really important that we didn't allow the draft just to dictate to us that we were going to have one pick to replace one player,'' he said. 

"People will say Tom Lee was for pick No.12, but that is not the case. We would not have actually consummated that deal if it was purely pick 12 for Tom Lee. 

"I'm extremely confident that these guys are going to form a very strong nucleus of the St Kilda side for the next decade.''

Importantly, St Kilda's system is based on the premierships models Pelchen oversaw at Port Adelaide (2004) and Hawthorn (2008), laying proven foundation to the club's recruiting formula.

Leafs have also been taken from Sydney's more contemporary recycling theory and Geelong.

Without the start-up club concessions clouding the quality of draft, this year the club is more likely to hang on to its top pick. But there is no chance the Saints will deliberately dip to the lower reaches of the ladder. 

"I don't believe any club should have aspirations to go to the bottom of the ladder. In an 18-team competition, it's a long way up,'' he said.

"We think there is a much better cause to be served by developing players in a winning environment than in a losing one.''

In a bid to fast-track their players' progress, St Kilda has invested heavily in its academy program, based on the model at soccer giant Barcelona. 

Development, sports science and welfare staff have been doubled, helping the club put a near-equal emphasis on players' on and off-field development. 

Pelchen said the club would stagger retirements to ensure there was no mass exodus.

"We've been very mindful of the fact we've had a very talented list, which has been very successful for a decade,'' he said. 

"It's critical we step those retirements which allow us to bring young players through and importantly learn from these older players,'' he said.

"You need players who have experienced the highs and lows, and the changes associated with living in a professional sporting environment.''

THE POWER OF THREE

How St Kilda traded its first-round picks

2012
OUT 
Pick No. 12 (GWS used on Kristian Jaksch)
IN 
Tom Lee (GWS pre-list) forward
Nathan Wright (No. 24) midfielder
Josh Saunders (No.43) midfielder
OUT
Pick No. 13 (Gold Coast used on Jesse Lonergan)
IN
Tom Hickey (Gold Coast) ruckman
Spencer White (No.25) key forward
(Plus an improvement of other picks)

2011
OUT
Pick No. 20 (Fremantle used on Hayden Crozier)
IN
Seb Ross (No. 25) midfielder
Ahmed Saad (GWS pre-list) small forward
Terry Milera (GWS pre-list) small forward

if this is a news article where is the link?

[Old Mate]

if this is a news article where is the link?

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/teams/s ... 6623717340

[Junction Oval]

Thanks Old Mate.

I missed the article. it was an interesting read. Things are certainly looking more optimistic than in the recent years - Saad, Milera, Roberton, Wright, to name a few.

[Teflon]

need to see a little more development success from the academy before I get too excited.

we are clearly going the 2 for 1 model to fill gaps thanks to 08-10 draft misses.

glad to hear retirements are staggered...makes a lot of sense.

[saintsRrising]

WARNING: The article above should not be read by any of the "we should have kept BJ and paid him a fortune brigade".

As I have saying for a while the club has been rebuilding ever since we hired Pelchen. That is why he was hired.

You can either just trust dumb luck and blind faith.....Or you ca move forward with purpose and strategy.

Whether it gets executed well or not remains to be seen. But at least you know that in a competitive competition where some clubs have unfair advantages that the Saints are having a red hot crack of seeking to rebuild quickly without doing a Melbourne and dumping all of your elder players too quickly.

The formula of maximising the number of players that we can pump through the club in a short period of time is an interesting one. By having more picks, it gets the odds in your favour that more will make it, and more quickly so that we do not have to completely bottom out.

[paddy]

it certainly is interesting, using the idea that one high pick might crumble, but out of 3 mid tier picks, one might be a star, the other a journeyman...

[gringo]

So far he has worked some magic. Saad and Milera on Ross' back look pretty good now Ross showed a bit in the VFL- we also got Newnes in that draft too. Lee, Wright and Saunders is very handy also with all looking like they could be players. Then Hickey and Spencer White look inspired also. We also got Murdoch who looks handy too. Better drafting so far- time will tell but can see some genuine class in several of them.

[SainterK]

I still have my doubts re Pelchen, of course I want to be wrong though, and will be very happy to have my post bumped and reminded of it.

[PJ]

I still have my doubts re Pelchen, of course I want to be wrong though, and will be very happy to have my post bumped and reminded of it.

Doubts about what? Whether he's any good at recruiting? Because that's the only thing that he should be being judged on - the rest is purely speculation.

[Majority]

This link is for those without the HS subscription

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/saints ... 6623717340

[st.byron]

Thanks for that Old Mate. Wouldn't have read that if you hadn't posted. Much appreciated. Good read and interesting strategy.

[Cairnsman]

Actually when you think about it the strategy makes complete sense. So if I’m understanding it correctly they are working on the principle that it is better to procure 2 or 3 lower picks in the hope that at least one or two can secure a spot in the best 22 rather than to only have one higher pick that may take a few years to realise isn’t going to make the cut. If I’ve got it right then that sounds like a very smart strategy, especially in compromised drafts or drafts that are light-on for talent at the top.

[Teflon]

It's only smart if say Saunders turns into a Sammy Mitchell and White turns into Buddy.... then it's genius

If not were screwed but I get the whole "lets try and max out pick numbers" thing.

I guess the other risk is - to follow this strategy you need to offload your top picks for bundle options..... but what if say at pick 12 you end up foregoing a future Dal Santo to get a good, honest J Blake??

At some stage we'll need genuine stars - even Swans have them to build around

Interesting times.

[Richter]

need to see a little more development success from the academy before I get too excited.

we are clearly going the 2 for 1 model to fill gaps thanks to 08-10 draft misses.

glad to hear retirements are staggered...makes a lot of sense.

True.

However the direction makes a lot of sense. The club have made the calculation that picks 12, 13, 20, 37 and 57 were not as valuable as Hickey, Lee, Milera, Saad, picks 24, 25, 26, 43 and 46 in successive drafts.

Th big thing with first round dps is that you might miss out on an absolute superstar.... but the reality is that the chances of picking up such a gun reduces after the first 5 picks and then after pick 10 the number of the dp is virtually irrelevant in terms of the chances of picking up an elite player e.g. our AA players picked up outside the top 10.

Lenny Hayes - #11 in 1998
Nick Dal Santo - #13 in 2001
Leigh Montagna - #37 in 2001
Sam Fisher - #55 in 2003
Steven Milne - rookie pick in 1999
Sean Dempster - steak knives in the Swans deal that saw Scheids come over for #26 in 2007

The club has also clearly valued picks #12, 13 and 20 as being in reality 5-10 picks lower than that due to the GWS/GC concessions.

The likelihood is that over the next 2-3 years we will see at least a couple of top ten dps (possibly even top 5s) which it would be extremely doubtful that the club would trade as these would be much more valuable and likely to pick up a gun. e.g. you would not swap #5 for #15, 16 as you have a great chance of picking up an elite player with #5 but much less with #15, 16.

[Richter]

it certainly is interesting, using the idea that one high pick might crumble, but out of 3 mid tier picks, one might be a star, the other a journeyman...

Point is though Paddy is that #12, 13 and 20 which we gave up for #24, 25, 26 are NOT 'high picks'. The value drops significantly after the top 10 or so. In compromised drafts these picks are even more firmly ensconced as 'upper mid tier' picks swapped for 'mid tier' picks.

[paulski]

WOW!!!

Just watched Spencer White on Youtube!!

Comparisons to Buddy are justified. Same physique, running and kicking style!

Just slightly excited with this prospect!!

[Saints94]

Very interesting read, I can see where Pelchen is coming from maximise picks so we have a better chance at snaring a future 200 game player, to also hear that we have doubled our development, sports science staff is a huge positive, to me it means we are stepping it up as far as "small' Victorian clubs go, as much I want us to win this year, I want a top 5 draft pick so we can get the A grade mid we are after.

[jimmy_slats]

It's only smart if say Saunders turns into a Sammy Mitchell and White turns into Buddy.... then it's genius

If not were screwed but I get the whole "lets try and max out pick numbers" thing.

I guess the other risk is - to follow this strategy you need to offload your top picks for bundle options..... but what if say at pick 12 you end up foregoing a future Dal Santo to get a good, honest J Blake??

At some stage we'll need genuine stars - even Swans have them to build around

Interesting times.

he talks about in the article about compromised drafts and how they were so comprimised that we would not of got true top 12 or 13 or 20 picks this is smart and respectful to the team rather than just going for one very untried star

[bergholt]

he talks about in the article about compromised drafts and how they were so comprimised that we would not of got true top 12 or 13 or 20 picks this is smart and respectful to the team rather than just going for one very untried star

Imagine if Melbourne had traded pick 1 in 2008 for three picks between 25 and 35. They wouldn't have had Jack Watts but would have had ended up with three of:

Jack Redden
Jayden Post
Sam Wright
Shaun McKernan
Dayne Beams
Daniel Hannebery
Jordan Roughead
Liam Jones
Tom Gillies
Liam Shiels
Jamie Bennell

Fair chance of getting an A-grade player, from the looks of it, and they would have been guaranteed to get at least one player going better than Watts is.

I like the weight of numbers strategy, though it only works when you're turning the list over - if you've got lots of developing kids then you might not be able to free up enough spots to take five or six draft picks.

[lloyd21]

For all the knockers at least you can see Stkilda's strategy going forward including recruiting kids with " Character " mental toughness than some other clubs.

This at least gives them a chance to get it right.