MCG-Unit wrote:Teflon wrote:Vazelos wrote:it may be that we got higher picks in #24 & # 43 but pick # 12 is still in its own right a very high pick & Tom Lee will be assessed on this opportunity cost.
correct.
few will give a shyte about the also ran picks.
Yes don't really buy the 'getting back 2nd & 3rd Rnd picks' makes it ok. Sure it sweetened the deal quite a bit, esp if DP 24 & 43 turn out ok -
but IMO a downgrade of 12 picks in Rnd 1 is still a hefty price to pay.
Why not wait and see if Lee is still available in the ND at pick 40-60+ if not forget it? Take an 18 y o. Surely if someone pre-listed by GWS is not traded, he can enter the ND.
There was talk around trade time of Fremantle offering GWS their first dp (pick 17) for Tom Lee. He was also named in shifter Sheahan's draft at number 11! Hence I think it is fairly reasonable to suggest that he would not have been available at all in the draft beyond the first round, never mind pick 40+!
(
http://www.supercoachhq.com/14/post/201 ... draft.html)
In terms of what we gave up, here is what history can tell us. Between 2000- 2005 there have been 60 players picked between 12-16 in the draft.
Here's a list of those who have played more than 100 games of AFL:
2000 Shaun Burgoyne, Ash McGrath, Daniel Harris, Simon Wiggins, Scott Thompson
2001 Brent Reilly, Nick Dal Santo, Rick Ladson
2002 Jay Schulz, Byron Schammer, Stephen Gilham
2003 Brent Stanton, Troy Chaplin
2004 Matthew Bate, Angus Monfires, Lynden Dunn
2005 Nathan Jones, Shannon Hurn, Grant Birchall, Travis Varcoe, Richard Douglas
That's 35% who have played 100 games.
2 are elite players (Scott Thompson and Dal) = 3.3%
8 have had seasons when they could arguably be considered A grade (Thompson, Dal, Burgoyne, Stanton, Jones, Birchall, Varcoe, Douglas) = 13.3%
Hence IMO we have made a shrewd decision in picking up Tom Lee in that we believed that he actually was a top 20 draft prospect anyway AND we got to pick up two further stabs.
The further reality is that in order to have a decent crack at picking up an A grade talent, your chances are MUCH higher with a top 10 pick, but beyond that it is very rare indeed.
Hird... The unflushable one is now... just a turd...