Why can't we make the eight in 2013...

[Teflon]

Right now we've lost quality in Goddard for nought and gained a previously delisted kid with some talent but who knows?

Our older players won't get better
Our glaring holes in defense/ruck still exist and IMO our midfield lacks quality depth.

Still a week to trading that could help but I'm growing less confident of the big "Pelican - Hamill/Gehrig double..."

Even if we land Hickey - he's a kid for the future.

Im starting to think we take our draft chances, develop our own and slide a little (not to Dogs extent) before we climb again.

So top 4 in 2013 for mine is a given.......

Footnote: Milera, Siposs, Ledger, Dunnell, Newness, Ross, Curran..... please lord let there be a bolter in amongst them..

[CURLY]

Of course we can. Im not sure that we will but apart from Hawthorn, Sydney and the two Perth sides Im not sure theres to many other certainties. For it to happen though we'd need solid seasons out of the usual crew and a increase in output from Stanley Stevens Sipposs and so on.

[The OtherThommo]

Trying to predict improvements and form this far out is anyone's guess. But, 2 things happened yesterday which enhance our chances of making the 8 significantly.
Firstly, the fixturing. Having 2012's bottom 10 only playing 2 of 2012's top 8 twice, and the top 8 only playing 2 of the bottom 10 twice (except Sydney vs GWS for derby enhancement) is the MOST significant change in fixturing ever made. The side finishing 8th will now have a much harder task to maintain their position than the side finishing 9th will have to take take it off them. This isn't a seeded fixture, it draws a line. It is designed to make the lower spots in the 8 volatile from year to year, and exploits the 22 games for 18 sides manifestly to ensure that volatility.
Secondly, the rucking changes. The throw ups around the ground and the restriction on body contact devalues the monsters significantly. There won't be time for the slower monsters to get to as many stoppages, as the ump's will be told to get the pill in the air immediately it's in their hands. When the monsters do get there they aren't allowed to engage physically prior to the ball going back into motion. Those changes will advantage the aerobically superior ruckmen, partly just because they will be there first and more times without the competition. I think it will also mean the coaches will be better able to strategically advantage the lesser bodied ruckmen and exploit their strengths. Rucking is also likely to become more regional, with certain types occupying particular parts of the ground according to the structure of their own side and that of the other mob. I think these changes will make (e.g.) McEvoy relatively more valuable and (e.g.) Sandilands less valuable. And, there will be a greater emphasis on a ruckman's all round football ability - they'll rely more on getting to contests, on marking the pill in contests, on being able to run, being good below their knees. They'll be able to rely less on getting in the way and using their size to present the footy to those at ground level.
The only part of this change which may leave McEvoy vulnerable is his leap. The rest of it helps him significantly, and strips those he struggles with most of a significant part of their advantage. This will change rucking enormously.
We'll make the 8.

[SinCitySainter]

We missed out on the 8 this year after having almost the easiest draw of any side in the comp.
We also had hardly any injury problems through out the year.
Most of our stars are either approaching the point in their careers where they start to drop off and slow down or in BJs case are gone.
Except for Saad, Siposs and maybe Cripps, who we are likely to lose anyway, we don't have any youngsters whose form is demanding a first team place yet.
Our great white hope, Stanley, while still having bundles of potential is yet to look like tearing an opponent apart.
Essendon and Carlton are unlikely to have as bad a run with injuries as they did this year.

[samoht]

"There's always a Ray of hope and it's Markworth-y that, with a Gram of luck we will slice through the competition, as if with a Stanley knife and there will be no Leeway for failure until the job is done ; anything Sipossible", Saad (sic) Watters, "just sit tight and Ledger see", he added with a winning smile.
His words were slurred, as the bottle of scotch slipped from his loosening grip.

[SaintPav]

you have to factor in improvement or otherwise in the other 17 teams.
There is no science in the following just feeling.
Swans - down slightly
Hawks - more consistent
Pies - down
Crows - down slightly
Eagles - same
Freo - better
Geelong - significant drop
North - about the same
Saints - better
Blues - ?
Tigers - better
Dons - more consistently good
Lions - slightly better
Port - drop
Doggies - slightly better
Demons - better
Suns - better
Giants - slightly better

Notwithsatnding losing Tippett, Crows could step up another level next year.

I also expect Sydney to keep going. In fact, the could get even better.

Hawks will be good as well.

Port can't really drop and could improve a bit.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

Six things to factor in if we make the 8 next year ...
1. The draw - if we get a run like the crows got playing GC GWS and the Dogs twice then thats six wins right there and that's half way to making the 8..
2. Good run with injuries - we had a pretty good run this year with injurys but the injurys we had happened to possibly the players we could least afford to lose in the likes of Fisher Blake McEvoy and Stanley
3. Continued development - guys like Siposs Simpkin Dunnell to build on their experience and perform at a consistent rate
4. Defence - be it by a trade or draft or injection of youth we need to sure up the back end .. We leake too many goals this year
5. Hunger for the game - we saw guys fall out of form after the second GF loss under Ross and the thought was that we had scaled the mountain one time to many without reward causeing the drop the injection of Watters and the in comming kids like the Saad Milera saw some of these guys find some of that lost form (Roo prime example) with a fresh attitude the hunger may return
6. Luck - they say you make your own good luck in footy so in turn your bad luck must be from your own doing this year we managed to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory a turn around of that fortune will help ...

Honestly I have us as a mid of the road team again we will belt the likes of the bottom 4 but be a long way off the pace of the top 4 we will be again in that log jam between 6th and 13th ..

[st_Trav_ofWA]

We missed out on the 8 this year after having almost the easiest draw of any side in the comp.
We also had hardly any injury problems through out the year.
Most of our stars are either approaching the point in their careers where they start to drop off and slow down or in BJs case are gone.
Except for Saad, Siposs and maybe Cripps, who we are likely to lose anyway, we don't have any youngsters whose form is demanding a first team place yet.
Our great white hope, Stanley, while still having bundles of potential is yet to look like tearing an opponent apart.
Essendon and Carlton are unlikely to have as bad a run with injuries as they did this year.

Ok let's be honest here Cripps form was not exactly demanding of first 22 this year .. Guys like Simpkin and Newnes were more demanding of the first 22 in the season just gone ... While I'm sad to see Cripps want out I think your deliberately making him outto be better then he actually is at this point to make it sound like its the end of the world we are losing him

[samoht]

Our backline will be more settled next year .. with Fisher getting over his injury (and with Gwilt getting more games/fitness post his knee),
Potentially we will improve in our forward line - with Lee and Riewoldt and Wilkes/Stanley stretching the opposition and the focus and workload taken away from Riewoldt.
We just need another running/inside midfielder who is ready to go.- this is where we need to improve most and what we need to trade for. Keeping Ray will help too (as far as a running midfielder and with rotations).

[bigcarl]

Most of our stars are either approaching the point in their careers where they start to drop off and slow down.

Swans had five guys over 30 (and several about to turn 30) in their premiership team.

[SinCitySainter]

We missed out on the 8 this year after having almost the easiest draw of any side in the comp.
We also had hardly any injury problems through out the year.
Most of our stars are either approaching the point in their careers where they start to drop off and slow down or in BJs case are gone.
Except for Saad, Siposs and maybe Cripps, who we are likely to lose anyway, we don't have any youngsters whose form is demanding a first team place yet.
Our great white hope, Stanley, while still having bundles of potential is yet to look like tearing an opponent apart.
Essendon and Carlton are unlikely to have as bad a run with injuries as they did this year.

Ok let's be honest here Cripps form was not exactly demanding of first 22 this year .. Guys like Simpkin and Newnes were more demanding of the first 22 in the season just gone ... While I'm sad to see Cripps want out I think your deliberately making him outto be better then he actually is at this point to make it sound like its the end of the world we are losing him

Actually you have misunderstood what my point was. I agree that Cripps was not exactly pounding down the door, thus me saying maybe, but he is certainly further ahead than Newnes, Ross, Ledger etc... I did forget Simpkins and he is certainly further ahead than any of the other young players at this stage. However, he is best playing on the oppositions third tall forward which is not exactly one of our problem areas. This year he was forced to play the key defensive posts because of a lack of alternatives but nobody could argue that that is his best role.
Anyway my point was more that we don't have any youngsters coming through that look poised to have a break out year and as such drastically improve our on field brigade.

[st_Trav_ofWA]

But let's look at the youngsters we have .. Most have little to no experience even the guys like Ledger who have been around a while now have been playing VfL .. Next season more of the kids will get more time hence more of them will get the chance to make that drastic improvement ...

[Austinnn]

Our best players who are once in a generation players are getting older and cannot improve and may even go backwards. You have to eventually with age. We have lost BJ who is a very good player and wont be replaced next year. We again had bugger all injuries. The question is will that keep happening. Our younger guys will continue to improve but the competition does anyway. But the real reason IMO is we finished a game or 2 out of the 8 with Essendon and Carlton behind us. i think Carlton are certain to make it next year and maybe Essendon. I can only see North dropping out and in a shock maybe Geelong. Even North have a better group than us now especially if our stars start to feel their age.

Best we can hope for IMO is 8th but my range would be 9th to 12th next year.

I think Stanley and Chips being out for a few games hindered us, but I take your point that what lost our games was mainly excecution rather than lack of personnel.

Though a very good player, the 2012 BJ didn't make a big difference one way or another, so in that sense he has already sort of given us a window into what a team without him would look like.

Essendon I agree with, Carlton; not so sure. New coach, new plan, takes time to integrate. Still not sure about some of their players. I suppose they had a pretty s*** year and sacked their coach, yet were only one spot under us in 2012 so they certainly can improve.

I feel Geelong's drop is inevitable, but it's not based on science. They are in a similar position to us but maybe they've been up a bit longer. Who replaces Scarlett? They tired at the end of this season (albeit from a very difficult run home) so I think we might see a slightly less spritely cattery next season.

North still don't convince me. They did really well at the end of this season, and will probably contiune that into 2013, but I don't see an X factor in that team yet.

As for us, I hope the old stars can hang on in there. Joey and Dal might take a while to get started. Roo will probably be much like this year, a less selfish but less comanding player. I think that now Watters has a better idea of which players give him what he wants, our first few games will be better than they were this year. No more using Wilkes in the backline, no more persisting with players like Polo. Hopefully Watters has detected skills and decision making under pressure as our biggest weakness and addressed that in pre season.

You are right when you say that the improvement in our youngsters will only help us keep pace with the comp, rather than climb the ladder. We need a lot more from Saad, Milera and Stanley, from Cripps (if he does stay) and Siposs, from Newnes and Ledger. A lot of our good vibes were caused by the surprise package of those players this year; can they cope with opposition who know their game now? As far as surprises go, we have Markworth, Ross and Lee to look forward to.

If we sort out the full back, we may get better service out of the other defenders, like Gwilt and Simpkin.

Note my words: hope, think, feel. Nothing but conjecture. I know nothing.

[Dave McNamara]

Some very interesting and perceptive analysis in this thread. However, sorry, but we can't have that continuing here, so...

How where we last season?
Our season stats as posted in another thread were surprisingly (dare I say) pleasing. Yes, we may not have had as any injuries as some, but the ones we had tended to be key... remember how we ran out of ruckmen at one stage? The draw may have been soft, but regardless, there was not a single game that were not in a position to win. That fact alone is impressive.

The forward line was much improved. Roo is clearly not what he was, but he still stood up and was very effective. Kosi did little, Stanley looked good, but was injured, so Roo had little help till Beau arrived late in the season. And in the final game against the paperbags, our key forwards were Beau and Rhys. The little guys, especially Tipper and Saady were very good.

Eveyone knows that a big key defender or two was the prob. Directly cost us several bags against large forwards. Secondly, meant we had to try and plug holes with blokes who would normally be setting up play from half back... therefore a negative double wammy.

What are the potential downsides?
Kosi seems virtually gone. Minimal contribution to last year's effort means we can't really loose anymore with him, whereas any unexpected improvement would be a bonus.
Yes, BJ is gone, but on last season's form we won't miss anything concrete, as in, we would only miss the potential for him to return to former levels. (I can't see that happening, and if it did, I can't see him maintaining $800K level elete output for 4 seasons.) Anyway, we have the player who could cover for him, such as Sippa... though I hope that Sippa will eventually end up a forward... and if he keeps building up, maybe even a key position forward?
Sure Roo's knee could potentially blow up anytime, but it's been like that for a while. I think it's reasonable to factor in a repeat of last season's output from Roo again.
Dal, Monty, Fish and Tiprat... no obvious sign/reason why they can't also maintain there current levels.
Grammy... I'm expecting more of the same, so no net loss there.

Where can we get better?
Fro looked very rusty for a long time, but was also slowly improving each game. Against Carlscum he looked more confident and was thumping his kicks again.
Gilbo was getting better as the year went on. Also, didn't he have a shoulder issue he was trying to carry???
I rate Jack S and Armo. I think they both now know that they are very good AFL footballers, and that they also know what they have to do to get even better.
Lenny's valve is fixed! Will be able to run out a full game. Lookout AFL I reckon!
Rhys and Ben should continue to improve, along with likes of Sippa, Simpko, Beau, Dunnell and Saady.
If we can get another mobile ruckman who can kick goals... Hickey come on down...

How can we get even better - anywhere from significantly to through-da-roof?
Cuddles (and team) have a year under their belts and will get better.
A solid, or even better, a very good key backman. I still reckon Frawley would be better than anyone availble in the draft with our pick 13. Pick 20 for Dawes shows me the Dreamon's recruiting is still as dumb as ever... I'm no ruling Chip out yet.

Finally... Tom Lee. Yep, that is only a highlights package, but gee he looks the goods! I reckon this guy will be our future long term key forward.
Yes, he can do it all in the WAFL, but IMHO he will be able to also strut his stuff in the pressure cooker of the AFL.
Why?
Check out his ability to spot and accurately spot-up blokes, outta' the corner of his eye whilst under pressure... by hand or either foot. I like to watch... that!
That is the sign of someone who will produce on the big stage, rather than just be a 'talented footballer' in a lower league.

Summary:
Last season, even allowing for 'the draw', we weren't as far off the pace as some may think.
I can see no obvious areas for us to drop off just yet, even though too many of our stars are ageing.
Improvement can be expected from several players who already took several positive steps forward last season
Improvement can also be reasonably expected from several established players who were injured or ill (Lenny) year.
Significant improvement will come from slotting in a decent big key defender - the better the key defender, the more we will improve.
Significant improvement to potential wildcard effect - Tom Lee.
Most of our stars are ageing. How many will drop off, how soon and how quickly?

Can we make (at least) the top 8 in 2013? Hell yeah!

[loris]

I've just done a quick poll.

I've asked:

• Nick Riewoldt
• Lenny Hayes
• Nick Dal Santo
• Sam Fisher
• Stephen Milne

They all seem to think we can make the eight. In fact they seemed a bit put out that I had even asked and queried why the hell would they keep going if we couldn't.

So that's good enough for me












PS: I didn't really ask them, I just said that for effect

OH I thought 'plugger' must have given you all their contact numbers for you to chat to them all Dr Spacey

[bigcarl]

Most of our stars are either approaching the point in their careers where they start to drop off and slow down.

Swans had five guys over 30 (and several about to turn 30) in their premiership team.

Not only that, half of their premiership team was aged 28 or over. There's a lot to be said for seasoned players with match-hardened bodies.

[plugger66]

Most of our stars are either approaching the point in their careers where they start to drop off and slow down.

Swans had five guys over 30 (and several about to turn 30) in their premiership team.

Not only that, half of their premiership team was aged 28 or over. There's a lot to be said for seasoned players with match-hardened bodies.

Dont we have more and we finished behind them.

[dragit]

Most of our stars are either approaching the point in their careers where they start to drop off and slow down.

Swans had five guys over 30 (and several about to turn 30) in their premiership team.

Not only that, half of their premiership team was aged 28 or over. There's a lot to be said for seasoned players with match-hardened bodies.

Not only that but the players Sydney have under 26 years of ages have accumulated 933 games combined experience… compared to our 389…

[bigcarl]

Swans had five guys over 30 (and several about to turn 30) in their premiership team.

Not only that, half of their premiership team was aged 28 or over. There's a lot to be said for seasoned players with match-hardened bodies.

Dont we have more and we finished behind them.

Round 23 we had nine over 28: Gram, Hayes, Montagna, Goddard, Kosi, Dempster, Dal Santo, Blake and Milne.

And three, Hayes, Blake and Milne, over 30.

So I don't know whether we had more than Sydney. I'll let you work it out.

But they have shown the value of a strong, experienced core of players.

[bigcarl]

Not only that but the players Sydney have under 26 years of ages have accumulated 933 games combined experience… compared to our 389…

We set about fixing that last season post-Ross. I'm all for getting games into younger players, so long as it's not at the expense of older ones who still offer more in comparison.

[evo]

Not only that but the players Sydney have under 26 years of ages have accumulated 933 games combined experience… compared to our 389…

We set about fixing that last season post-Ross. I'm all for getting games into younger players, so long as it's not at the expense of older ones who still offer more in comparison.

Exactly. have not seen anything from Ledger, Ross, Newnes, Winmar that suggests they should be gifted games next year just because they are YOUNG !!!
If we traded in Buddy and Ablett there would be some on here that would be saying that they would hinder our young players development.

[plugger66]

Not only that, half of their premiership team was aged 28 or over. There's a lot to be said for seasoned players with match-hardened bodies.

Dont we have more and we finished behind them.

Round 23 we had nine over 28: Gram, Hayes, Montagna, Goddard, Kosi, Dempster, Dal Santo, Blake and Milne.

And three, Hayes, Blake and Milne, over 30.

So I don't know whether we had more than Sydney. I'll let you work it out.

But they have shown the value of a strong, experienced core of players.

They have a midfield including Kennedy and jack who are young. As much as i rate our Jack and Armo they cant compare. Our best players are over 28. Sydneys best include younger players.And we are trying to improve and that is the hard thing.

[dragit]

Not only that but the players Sydney have under 26 years of ages have accumulated 933 games combined experience… compared to our 389…

We set about fixing that last season post-Ross. I'm all for getting games into younger players, so long as it's not at the expense of older ones who still offer more in comparison.

Exactly. have not seen anything from Ledger, Ross, Newnes, Winmar that suggests they should be gifted games next year just because they are YOUNG !!!
If we traded in Buddy and Ablett there would be some on here that would be saying that they would hinder our young players development.

So our best 10 players average age is what 30? We won ONE match against a top 8 side this year, yet some how next year we are going to magically become a force, by playing the same side? with Gram, Ray, Blake… etc

Siposs still probably isn't in our best 22, yet we have to persevere with him as he won't get better by plodding around in the VFL. The same reason we have seen Newnes/Dunell this year, of course they're not as effective as Ray/Gram yet, but they'll learn so much more from playing at AFL than VFL.

Ross/Curren/Ledger will get games over Jones next year, but will probably be less effective…

Saad was doing less at VFL level than Peake, I'm sure we're all glad Saad had the chance to show what he can do at the top level.

The party is over my friends, wake up.

[bigcarl]

So our best 10 players average age is what 30? We won ONE match against a top 8 side this year, yet some how next year we are going to magically become a force, by playing the same side? with Gram, Ray, Blake… etc

Siposs still probably isn't in our best 22, yet we have to persevere with him as he won't get better by plodding around in the VFL. The same reason we have seen Newnes/Dunell this year, of course they're not as effective as Ray/Gram yet, but they'll learn so much more from playing at AFL than VFL.

Ross/Curren/Ledger will get games over Jones next year, but will probably be less effective…

Saad was doing less at VFL level than Peake, I'm sure we're all glad Saad had the chance to show what he can do at the top level.

The party is over my friends, wake up.

I can't agree with not selecting our best available team while we are a mathematical chance of making the finals.

It seems defeatist to write off next season as a rebuilding year before it has begun.

As I said, I'm all for young players getting a game ... so long as they are in the best 22 available.

If that means Ray or Gram getting a game ahead of, say, Ross or Ledger, I'm comfortable with that. Best available.

[dragit]

I can't agree with not selecting our best available team while we are a mathematical chance of making the finals.

It seems defeatist to write off next season as a rebuilding year before it has begun.

As I said, I'm all for young players getting a game ... so long as they are in our best 22 available.

Luckily the coaches have a broader view of the team selection rather just this week

As I said earlier, Saad, Dunell, Newnes, Cripps, Ross & Ledger all played this year at levels probably behind what Peake, Gram, Ray, Clarke & Jones would have provided. Though I am pretty sure nearly everyone was happy to see them.

What do you think our 'best' side from this year looked like?

something like

Saad Riewoldt Milne
Schneider Stanley Kosi
Montagna Hayes Gram
Gwilt Dempster Goddard
Geary Fisher Gilbert

Fol McEvoy Dal Santo Steven
INT: Blake, Armitage, Jones
Sub: Ray

This side was brilliant 3 years ago, but now it isn't good enough not make the 8 let alone win a premiership, so we have to introduce & foster new talent at the expense of our fringe players - Blake, Gram, Ray & Jones. Although these guys are bigger and offer more this week they probably aren't taking us back up the ladder…

Re-building can't just start when you are mathematically no chance to make the finals, which this year would have been round 20. We have to play young guys who are performing well in the 2's, while we still have champions in the side to learn from… Just like Lenny did with Harves, even when he wasn't tearing games open.