The Goddard Game

[BackFromUSA]

The introduction of free agency has thrown a number of new scenarios for players, managers and clubs.

Removing managers from the equation - as the general rule is "show me the money" so they will always push a club for the most money and recommend the highest bidder to a player ... they are easy to read.

I have been taking interest in the Goddard situation mostly because I think it is going to be the true test case in terms of how players and clubs will deal in the "Restricted Free Agency" market. This is making the assumption that Collingwood just simply cannot afford Cloke anymore so it is almost 100% certain he will go to the highest bidder (if they just follow the money) or Carlton (for less) with Mick Malthouse.

So onto the Goddard chess game.

Goddard has decided to go to the market to field offers.

The current St Kilda offer of 3 years at $600k to 650k is on the table.

Let's assume that rumour is correct and clubs have offered $750k for 4 years and even one for 5 years ... Goddard will have 3 to 5 offers to pick from.

And it is HIS pick.

He can accept the St Kilda offer (doubtful) or any of the other offers BUT just one of those offers. It DOES NOT have to be the highest offer.

This is where it gets interesting.

St Kilda can match that offer.

Goddard then has to select between St Kilda and the new club.

The exact wording is: If the club matches the offer, he may choose to remain with his original club, seek a trade or enter the Draft.

The way I read that is that if St Kilda matches the offer and Goddard wants to leave to the club, then the player Goddard needs to seek a trade ... the club does NOT have to trade.

This suddenly puts the club in a position of strength.

For Goddard to get to the team of his choice, St Kilda has to agree to a trade OR his alternative is to go into the draft ... I assume at the same contract level and land anywhere ... which is something Goddard will want to avoid.

If Goddard doesn't want to chance the draft ... then two scenarios emerge that I can see:

1) we play hardball with the club who Goddard has selected and make them pay a player price over the odds to get Goddard (we win)

2) St Kilda gets to keep Goddard but with an inflated contract which will limit our ability to recruit other players .... unless we then put him up for trade to all clubs!

If we match the offer and have this inflated contract, during trade week we can offload him (as long as he agrees) to any club for the compensation we really want.

Let's for example say it was Essendon that was the club he picks or that we wish to deal with during the trade period, we can ask for Hooker, Gumbleton and Hille or Bellchambers and Hooker or Bellchambers and Gumbleton ... and even agree to pay a portion of Goddards wage (like Carlton did for Fevola) ... and we could be doing a lot better than pick 13.

It is going to be a very interesting October.

[GoSaints11]

Good post. There's a few "if's" in there (e.g if we match THAT offer) but really informative. I hadn't considered that we (st Kilda) could come out of this in a strong trade position. The essendon factor would become even more interesting in that scenario as they could not pick Goddard in the national draft before us (b/c of joe danniher commitment). So , basically, if Goddard nominates bombers & saints match (hypothetically), for bombers to get him they would have to trade BIG! Having said that, if saints matched an offer, you'd think Goddard would obviously accept & stay at saints. Anyway, good post. Appreciate the outside the box perspective.

[chook23]

Your 1 is not really a win for us

[rexy]

Agree that if we match an offer then BJ will stay, don't think he's looking to leave as much as excercising his right to test his worth and ensure he is duly compensated! Think the offer will need to be significant and in Melbourne for him to accept it!

[villasaint]

No hooker pls

[BackFromUSA]

I personally think the club will trade him once he puts us in this position ... why keep a player not committed to the club? Why not trade him?

I think the only way he will stay at St Kilda is if he signs before October 1.

Once he picks another club's offer ... I believe the club will not want him back.

This is also about sending a strong message to future restricted free agents.

[Animal Enclosure]

And trading is where Pelchen is king (not so much the drafting).

I've had a similar opinion BFUSA, I'm reasonably content with pick 13 but being able to negotiate a trade would most likely put us in a better situation.

A massive no to Hooker. Carlisle is the young tall that I'd request.

[plugger66]

If we match the offer then he may just agree to it then we cant trade him. Both parties have to agree to a trade. I wouldnt match the offer. BJ is being offered to much as it is and with Rooy now only getting 500k next year he will be clearly the highest paid player without an increase. If anyone can tell me why a player with one 3rd placing in a B&F over 10 years and only good form at best in the last 2 years deserves all this money then I would be happy to hear it.

[magnifisaint]

So we all agree that Goddard's offer by the Saints is more than generous.
He may go to another level at another club, but that's a chance we need to take. Time to top up with some good young kids

[dragit]

I think you could wind up in some strife trying to get too clever with this…

I think the biggest draw card of obtaining a free agent is that you don't have to give up anything, you might have to pay overs for a player, but you don't have to give up a pick or decent player.

Very different scenario to trading… Essendon might not be willing to pay top dollar and give away 2 players. Imagine for us looking at say James Frawley or another key defender… paying top dollar via free agency is one thing, but if their club matched our offer, then came to us seeking a trade of say our 2nd round pick plus one of Armo/Siposs/Saad … we would no doubt give them the finger. Essendon are particularly stubborn when it comes to trades, I would not expect to get anything decent out of them.

You don't want the situation where you match an offer with the intention to trade, then can't strike a deal with anyone… would completely ruin our ability to attract any free agents in the near future… with more cap issues.

You would also have the highest paid player on your list, a guy who doesn't want to be part of the club… playing alongside better players who made massive financial sacrifices to stay with us…

[Kernal75]

Not sure that Goddard at 28 will "go to the next level" at another club. If the Bummers get him they will want him to win his own ball around the contest, something we haven't seen from him at the Saints. I agree with most posters on here about the money on offer. If that's our best offer then good leave it that way. Have a look at Nick's attitude in signing 4 years ago knowing that he will only be on $500K this season. That's true loyalty, none of this "I love the club and hope they can pay me what I think I'm worth" rhetoric BJ is spreading. If he's gone then push on BJ and let us get on with the task of rebuilding our list with the next wave of kids!

[Dis Believer]

I think peoople trying to "match then trade" in free agency would quickly be targeted. Other clubs would be able to target players on your list by approaching a free agent on your list to drive up his $$, then forcing their target player out of your list due to salary cap squeeze.

[joffaboy]

While it is a very good OP, I can only really see two scenarios

1) Goddard stays with the club

2) Goddard leaves for a better offer under restricted free agency.

I cant see the club matching 750k over four years or 800k over 5 years, maybe they may rejig the offer come October 1 and work a four year deal around the current $ mark.

But if they wont budge on the three year offer, we are looking at a dp compensation (if we dont land an equilivent free agency player).

Is this ideal? Well Pelchan has worked very hard to get our SC in order, I cant see the club jeopardising the SC to pay bj a kings ransom. He is a very good player, easily in the top 50 in the league, but he isn't a Buddy Franklin or Chris Judd at the top of his game type player.

If the speculation is true, and we lose bj, I expect we will have a heap of room in the sc, an extra high dp to trade with (or use) and our trading position will be very very good.

If bj moves (and for the money being bandied about who could blame him), I will say thanks for the effort over the years, thanks for almost getting us over the line in 2010, enjoy the rest of your career and life, and we all move on.

[Animal Enclosure]

Ess offering around $900k PA for 4 years.... jesus that is massive & will hopefully cause them massive SC problems.

[SaintPav]

Ess offering around $900k PA for 4 years.... jesus that is massive & will hopefully cause them massive SC problems.

If they are offering him that much then they are dumb but I really doubt that they are.

I think your mail is having a big lend of you.

[saintly]

Ess offering around $900k PA for 4 years.... jesus that is massive & will hopefully cause them massive SC problems.

If they are offering him that much then they are dumb but I really doubt that they are.

I think your mail is having a big lend of you.

heard amounts similar, also heard that freo was offering 5 years.

[Dr Spaceman]

BJ tried to get us that flag in 2010 but alas we fell short.

And then in 2011 and 2012 we didn’t even get close.

Now edging towards the end of his career, and realising there’s only so much he can do onfield, Brendon may decide to help us by financially crippling one of our rivals.

Terrific stuff BJ – a True Saint

[SuperDuper]

part of the attraction of a free agent is that your club gets them without iving up anything in terms of trade... so they are offering large salaries to entice the player... they will not pay him that much if they have to give something up... so i cant see your scenario playing out ....