Nice thread, and even though there's currently another "Assuming we won't make the finals thread" currently running (
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=77273), I thought I'd weigh in here as I like this title more.
Agree with the obvious statement that a few hard calls are needed. Many folks are saying that Ferguson has the makings of a Gilbert type player more than a full back, so maybe it's time to think about trading Gilbert for a mature ruckman or fullback (see below). I like Gilbo and he is far more beneficial for his team than is commonly thought on this forum. However he could be an attractive trade for the Northern state teams as he is a Northern NSW boy, he's had form problems the last couple of years but remains a very good player, has finals experience and plays a vital role in a team. He would be hard to replace though, and there's a reason why he has played all this season's games so far, despite at times very poor decision making. Could Jackson Ferguson lessen the blow?
No one wants to lose BJ or Monty, especially now they are both finally hitting finals form (shame they left it so late, or they'd probably be more certain to actually play finals), so we'll keep both and move on, or we'll lose one or both and get good picks instead. Option One keeps the team in place, rewards loyalty, strengthens links to other players that will be needed if and when the club is in a weaker position. Option Two trades short term for long term strength. The imperative is that we do what is best for the club and the players. The only danger is the Luke Ball/Zac Dawson scenario where they go and we get nothing for them. Once is acceptable, twice is poor, but three times is inexcusable.
The poor kicks have to be replaced. As I mentioned in a post a few weeks ago;
Austinnn wrote:There are others who I think could probably be in the same bag, but they just provide enough to make it, or they play a much needed role; talkin' 'bout...
Jason Blake
Justin Koschitzke
Farren Ray
Jason Gram
Sam Gilbert
Clinton Jones
They should probably stay but we should aim for them to be squad players, not automatic selections. I mean make sure that we have 22 better players than them ready to play. I recognise their importance to the team, but we need to find better players who can do these roles equally well.
Blakey will probably retire, and I actually think I was wrong about Ray, I think he deserves to be in the team a lot more. Whenever he's given a chance, he rarely lets us down, so I'd like to know why the coaches feel he is less useful than other players; I get the feeling it's because of other players in the same position rather than him doing anything wrong. I suppose you might say that he's always good, but rarely a game changer.
With Kosi, Gram and Clint, their replacements have to be found immediately, and if they are retained it should be with regard to depth rather than automatic selection. Gram's not a bad kick, but does put his teammates in unnecessary danger with his disposal and whatever his other qualities, it's undeniable that relatively speaking he's something of a shirker. If Watters can turn that around then great, but either way at his age, we should be looking at finding a youngster to learn his role.
It unfortunately goes without saying that Peake Clarke and Polo will have to be moved on, hopefully a little less heartlessly than McQualter, Eddy and Baker were last year, but they've had their chances and I think its best if we all just closed the book there. I think Beau Wilkes might get another year, but it's hard to be decent when you're in and out of the side so much.
Nick Winmar and Sam Crocker will probably end up rookie listed which is probably fair enough - I doubt that anyone else would want them and they'd be happy to stay at a club and essentially do the same thing they are doing now. They get one more year to work super hard and prove their worth. Crocker shows a bit more upside and hasn't really been given a go yet, but depending on the draft, if we were feeling ruthless both could be delisted. Dan Archer, Cam Shenton and Warrick Andreoli are right at the bottom there, so it's line ball whether they stay for another year on the rookie list or go, depending on how many picks we have and how optimistic we are in the draft. Because of his size and position, Jordan Staley will stay and probably keep developing with a view to him getting upgraded at the end of 2013. Tom Curren, Jackson Ferguson and Darren Mitchington should probably be upgraded at the end of this year and see how far they want to take it. They should all crack a few games next year.
Dan Markworth, Tom Ledger, Seb Ross, Jay Lever and Jimmy Webster might crack a game this year against Melb or the Giants, or might be saved for next year, but will keep being developed to challenge the likes of Kosi Gram and Clint for their positions as well as the upper echelon. Let us all hope that they show us enough to be much better than the sad litany of underachievers who've worn Saints jumpers in eras gone by. Let us hope they will be future champions.
Jimmy Gwilt, Jarryn Geary, Jack Steven, Terry Milera, Jamie Cripps and even Ahmed Saad will need to improve on their consistency, skills and effort to avoid falling/settling into the lower tier.
We need to trade for Mature Ruck and Full Back, as well as drafting future versions and especially we need to draft the man to eventually replace the irreplaceable Nick Riewoldt. Poor goal kicking or not, we've taken Roo for granted over the last 10 years and there will come a time when he's not able to make those runs and provide that strong presence in the forward line, not to mention drawing the opposition's 2/3 best defenders and being a strong determined captain you would run through a wall for and we don't have anyone who even looks like they are capable of lacing his boots in that regard at the moment. The Bulldogs didn't replace Chris Grant or Barry Hall with a young apprentice, look where they are now. I think Stanley is more likely to be a replacement for Kosi, we need a big strong visible CHF.
Ben McEvoy needs a tap ruck specialist to make him a half decent ruck man; we're 2nd from the bottom of the ladder on HitOuts so far this year, and if it wasn't for Lenny and co's ability to shark the contest, we'd probably be a lot further away from finals.
Simpkin and Stanley are gold and you would think they'd be tied to long term contracts ASAP if they haven't been already.
Can Armo Steven and Geary build on what they've done this year, or is that the best that we'll get from them? It will be an interesting 2013 to see how if they develop into the kind of leaders we'll need to fill the top spots or if they've reached the limit of their powers. Again, let us hope.
Watters gets a pass mark from me; his selection hasn't always been great, and the question is how much our losses (and wins) were down to tactics or having good enough players to execute those tactics. His development of youngsters is fine by me, his relationship with the media and public is fine, although he'll have to be careful he doesn't get a rep as a liar. His mate Simon McPhee is going very well for Sandy and I'd like to see him retained whatever the cost. Our forwards coach Adam Kingsley needs to coach better goal kicking but the general offensive play is fine. Danny Sexton's job as a defensive coach might need a bit of tweaking; he's had key players out and down on form, but we need to build a stronger team that can tighten up better when the opposition gets the wind in their sails. At the moment, St Kilda seems to play well for 70-80% of the game but leak like a sieve when it's going against them and let in quick successive goals that lose us games. Midfield play also needs work, we're faster but as a result the decision making is getting worse as is the disposal. Needs refining.
The next few years will see some big names pass into retirement; Stephen Milne, Lenny Hayes, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Fisher, Justin Koschitzke, then later NDS, Monty, BJ, Dempster, Schneider, Gwilt, Gilbo and Gram, all of whom we depend on to get the job done. How well they are replaced will dictate whether we fall of the face of the AFL or reload à la Sydney.
OUT: Blake, Peake, Polo, Clarke, Shenton, Archer, Winmar is only 7 spots, so expect to see a few surprise trades/delistings. If this draft is as good as people are saying we'll need to drink long at the well which will mean making space.
I apologise for this long-winded post, I would have given it its own thread, but I think 3 threads on the future is too many.
and despise the Pies, the Blues, and the Injectors.
