Season on a knife's edge

[hungry for a premiership]

We haven't seen a season like this since the '90's.

As Richo said on the telecast when ask by BT (dunce) if the Saints could win the flag this year, this is a season where any team who finishes in the eight is capable of beating any other team in the 8, even 1st vs 8th, on their day. We've seen it happen all year. There is only about a 10% difference between the top 12-13 sides. No team is unbeatable, no team is dominant.


IF THERE IS EVER GOING TO BE A SEASON WHERE A TEAM WINS IT FROM OUTSIDE THE TOP FOUR, THIS IS IT.


A flag this year is realistically not out of our reach. It ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING. Timing is everything. And a bit of good luck, which we are karmically due to have.
But it wouldn't take too much. It wouldn't take a quantum leap for us and a major collapse for others for us to actually hold the cup aloft. It would just take a few percent either way at the right time, and we will be the form team of the comp in that we will be playing our absolute best football for the year in September and actually go on to peak on Grand Final day.
The season is a marathon, and we're still in the race, within striking distance of the leading pack thanks to the fact that the premier is selected over those final four weeks, not over the preceding 22.

There is not a side we are incapable of beating. We've matched it with every other team for patches all year. The only games where we've actually looked BAD and noncompetitive were vs Hawthorn for roughly half the game, and vs North Melbourne for about the last 15 minutes. Look at our form vs the other teams 1-11 on the ladder:

1 - Sydney (h) - comfortable victory, broke away in second quarter and were untroubled thereafter.
2 - West Coast (a) - Had an error-riddled and uncoordinated first half where we were blown away. Looked like a team still getting used to a new game plan. Came out after half-time and dominated the 2nd half.
3 - Adelaide (a) - In the contest from start to finish, never got blown away. Had more periods of ascendancy in first half but missed many gilt-edged chances. They got away from us a bit early in the last but then we got on a roll and were all over them and lost in the end due to one-too-many missed shots at goal. If the game had've gone another 90 seconds we would've won by two goals.
4 - Collingwood - We'll see.
5 - Essendon - Smashed 'em.
6 - Hawthorn - They pretty much had there way with us, though we did have encouraging patches. We we're still learning the game-plan. My theory about Hawthorn is that we're due for a win against them and and if we meet them in the finals we'll catch them with their pants down, as they've shown themselves to be susceptible to getting caught with their pants down and we are ripe to catch them with their pants down as it is anyway.
7 - Geelong - We'll see.

9 - Carlton - Smashed 'em
10 - Richmond - They were due against us and they produced their absolute best football to pip us.
11 - North - They were due against us and they produced their best football, plus we were coming back from the bye and had a bit of a flu going round and uncharacteristically lay down and died in the last 15 minutes. I'm writing this one off as an aberration.

Other losses can be explained away due to other factors: Port Adelaide = 1st game factor, Fremantle = RL factor.
Games vs Collingwood and Geelong will be decisive. I rate us a massive chance against Geelong because it's at Etihad. However, if we can beat Collingwood at the MCG, then we are in with a massive show, folks, because a win like that would give this team genuine cause for belief that if we play at our best and peak in September, no other side will be able to beat us. WE ARE THE ONLY SIDE WITH UNFINISHED BUSINESS.

Of course, a bit of luck in the draw would help.


West Coast, Adelaide, or Sydney in an AWAY knock-out final would be a tough assignment. But it would not be out of the question. And I tell you this, come Grand Final day at the MCG, if we are there, we will destroy West Coast, Adelaide or Sydney.

At 8-7, its going to be tough. Can only realistically lose 2 more games if we want to make it to that last sprint to the line. If it looks like this:

Brisbane W
Sydney L
Bulldogs W
Coll'wood L
Melbourne W
Geelong W
GWS W
Carlton W

Then it's on for young and old and this forum will be going apeshit and everything will be looking peaches

But if it's...

Brisbane L

followed by...

Sydney L

which is an entirely reasonable not completely unexpected or out-of-the-ordinary result, then I wager this forum and the forecasts and feeling about the short-mid-long term future of this club will be a very, very bleak indeed.

[I Love Peter Kiel]

We could still finish in the top four!

[kosifantutti]

I'm pretty sure we've only played 14 games so I don't think we're 8-7.

[saintspremiers]

We could still finish in the top four!

How?
Maybe if we won all our remaining games lol!

Let's face it, 8th is about the best we can hope for given how far ahead the teams above us are in terms of wins.

I'd be happy to win one final.

Winning the flag based on one great performance is typical media
Bullshyte. They have the attention span of a two year
Old.

IF we pump Brisbane then somehow beat Sydney
In Sydney, then inflate our tyres for sure.

Just in case the OP is not aware, we haven't won two in a row since Round 3.

[meher baba]

I reckon the Lions - Brown in particular - will be quite a difficult test for us playing away.I actually believe we match up far better against the Swans.

We are certainly good enough to win both games. If we do, we'd be favoured to make the 8, and possibly secure 5th or 6th spot, which would be helpful.

[Milne]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves guys. We can match any team on their day but I wouldn't rate us a chance unless we beat both Collingwood and Sydney. Geelong and Carlton will be tough too

[citywest]

We haven't seen a season like this since the '90's.

As Richo said on the telecast when ask by BT (dunce) if the Saints could win the flag this year, this is a season where any team who finishes in the eight is capable of beating any other team in the 8, even 1st vs 8th, on their day. We've seen it happen all year. There is only about a 10% difference between the top 12-13 sides. No team is unbeatable, no team is dominant.


IF THERE IS EVER GOING TO BE A SEASON WHERE A TEAM WINS IT FROM OUTSIDE THE TOP FOUR, THIS IS IT.


A flag this year is realistically not out of our reach. It ALL COMES DOWN TO TIMING. Timing is everything. And a bit of good luck, which we are karmically due to have.
But it wouldn't take too much. It wouldn't take a quantum leap for us and a major collapse for others for us to actually hold the cup aloft. It would just take a few percent either way at the right time, and we will be the form team of the comp in that we will be playing our absolute best football for the year in September and actually go on to peak on Grand Final day.
The season is a marathon, and we're still in the race, within striking distance of the leading pack thanks to the fact that the premier is selected over those final four weeks, not over the preceding 22.

There is not a side we are incapable of beating. We've matched it with every other team for patches all year. The only games where we've actually looked BAD and noncompetitive were vs Hawthorn for roughly half the game, and vs North Melbourne for about the last 15 minutes. Look at our form vs the other teams 1-11 on the ladder:

1 - Sydney (h) - comfortable victory, broke away in second quarter and were untroubled thereafter.
2 - West Coast (a) - Had an error-riddled and uncoordinated first half where we were blown away. Looked like a team still getting used to a new game plan. Came out after half-time and dominated the 2nd half.
3 - Adelaide (a) - In the contest from start to finish, never got blown away. Had more periods of ascendancy in first half but missed many gilt-edged chances. They got away from us a bit early in the last but then we got on a roll and were all over them and lost in the end due to one-too-many missed shots at goal. If the game had've gone another 90 seconds we would've won by two goals.
4 - Collingwood - We'll see.
5 - Essendon - Smashed 'em.
6 - Hawthorn - They pretty much had there way with us, though we did have encouraging patches. We we're still learning the game-plan. My theory about Hawthorn is that we're due for a win against them and and if we meet them in the finals we'll catch them with their pants down, as they've shown themselves to be susceptible to getting caught with their pants down and we are ripe to catch them with their pants down as it is anyway.
7 - Geelong - We'll see.

9 - Carlton - Smashed 'em
10 - Richmond - They were due against us and they produced their absolute best football to pip us.
11 - North - They were due against us and they produced their best football, plus we were coming back from the bye and had a bit of a flu going round and uncharacteristically lay down and died in the last 15 minutes. I'm writing this one off as an aberration.

Other losses can be explained away due to other factors: Port Adelaide = 1st game factor, Fremantle = RL factor.
Games vs Collingwood and Geelong will be decisive. I rate us a massive chance against Geelong because it's at Etihad. However, if we can beat Collingwood at the MCG, then we are in with a massive show, folks, because a win like that would give this team genuine cause for belief that if we play at our best and peak in September, no other side will be able to beat us. WE ARE THE ONLY SIDE WITH UNFINISHED BUSINESS.

Of course, a bit of luck in the draw would help.


West Coast, Adelaide, or Sydney in an AWAY knock-out final would be a tough assignment. But it would not be out of the question. And I tell you this, come Grand Final day at the MCG, if we are there, we will destroy West Coast, Adelaide or Sydney.

At 8-7, its going to be tough. Can only realistically lose 2 more games if we want to make it to that last sprint to the line. If it looks like this:

Brisbane W
Sydney L
Bulldogs W
Coll'wood L
Melbourne W
Geelong W
GWS W
Carlton W

Then it's on for young and old and this forum will be going apeshit and everything will be looking peaches

But if it's...

Brisbane L

followed by...

Sydney L

which is an entirely reasonable not completely unexpected or out-of-the-ordinary result, then I wager this forum and the forecasts and feeling about the short-mid-long term future of this club will be a very, very bleak indeed.

You are completely DELUDED.

[Scollop]

You are completed DELUDED.

You are................................................................................................................









going on my foe list

[citywest]

Why?

[Richter]

Just to back up your point... Looking at the current ladder....

12th have beaten 2nd
11th have beaten 3rd
10th have beaten 1st
9th have beaten 4th
8th have beaten 1st
7th have not beaten any team higher than 6th but are the reigning premiers
6th have beaten 3rd
5th have beaten 2nd

Weird season!

[Con Gorozidis]

Best we can hope to finish is 7th.
But topsy turvy season. Top 12 - anyone can beat anyone pretty much on their day. There are no stand out sides.

[Trixilver]

...And a bit of good luck, which we are karmically due to have.

Gambler's fallacy.

But yes, I agree. This season is up for grabs and we have every chance of taking it.

[Junction Oval]

I'll take getting into the 8 first, then it's 'one-win-at-a-time.' Each match as it comes.

[saintspremiers]

You are completed DELUDED.

You are................................................................................................................









going on my foe list

What happens if a foe posts something? Does it come up as a blank post with their name, or is there nothing?

[kosifantutti]

You are completed DELUDED.

You are................................................................................................................









going on my foe list

What happens if a foe posts something? Does it come up as a blank post with their name, or is there nothing?

This post was made by saintspremiers who is currently on your ignore list. Display this post.

[battye]

Anything could happen in the finals, but we have to make it first. I think it's touch and go if we can hang on to 8th position.

[BigMart]

Really

We have dropped 4 ordinary ones
Richmond, Port, Freo, North

Won three good ones
Essendon, Carlton, Sydney

Beat the minnows well
Bulldogs, GC

Competed OK with
Hawthorn, WCE, Adel

Will win 11 or 12 and finish 7-10.... In competition with Geel, Carl, Rich, Freo will come down to R23 IMO

not sure the fascination with finishing 8th... It won't make a difference

[plugger66]

Really

We have dropped 4 ordinary ones
Richmond, Port, Freo, North

Won three good ones
Essendon, Carlton, Sydney

Beat the minnows well
Bulldogs, GC

Competed OK with
Hawthorn, WCE, Adel

Will win 11 or 12 and finish 7-10.... In competition with Geel, Carl, Rich, Freo will come down to R23 IMO

not sure the fascination with finishing 8th... It won't make a difference

So you would rather finish 9th. Surely we arent that arrogant to say finals are a waste of time or as you say wont make a difference. You play footy to hopefully the GF. If you cant do that the next aim is to win a final.

[BigMart]

Ahh, the call of mediocrity..... We aim to win a final....

Arrogance.... An ingredient required for ultimate sporting success.. All great champions have it in some way.... Great sporting teams have it

Even
Supporters of champion

I would hope the club is planning to win a grand final.... Not win a final. We have won many finals in the last decade... As many as a few premiers... But it hasn't satisfied me, or the players I reckon....

I think winning a final on the way up is good, we are arguably not on the way up...

[plugger66]

Ahh, the call of mediocrity..... We aim to win a final....

Arrogance.... An ingredient required for ultimate sporting success.. All great champions have it in some way.... Great sporting teams have it

Even
Supporters of champion

I would hope the club is planning to win a grand final.... Not win a final. We have won many finals in the last decade... As many as a few premiers... But it hasn't satisfied me, or the players I reckon....

I think winning a final on the way up is good, we are arguably not on the way up...

So again i ask you would you rather finish 9th. It is crap to say winning a final on the way down isnt good. We obviously cant win the flag this year so what are suggesting? We shouldnt care where we finish? This isnt local footy. We need members and sponsors so i say winning a final is good for the club. it isnt about accepting mediocrity. How does not making the finals make the club better or more give us more hope in winning a GF in the future. It is arrogant supporting by people who forget how pathetic we were in the 80's.

[BigMart]

So we should be happy being just reasonable.... Because we are no longer pathetic.

I hope the board is not thinking along the same lines....

We should be somewhat embarrased by our History, and look to change our focus to one that..... Only success will be accepted

8th.... And an elimination final... If we lose it. SFW.

Only reason to make finals, is to keep the possibility of winning a GF alive in that season.... IMO if your not top 4 or at worst top 6 realistically your not a final list...how many premiers have come from 7-8 in 20 years.

Rather finish 8th ahead of 9th.....but not losing sleep thinking about one spot on a ladder mid rung

[plugger66]

So we should be happy being just reasonable.... Because we are no longer pathetic.

I hope the board is not thinking along the same lines....

We should be somewhat embarrased by our History, and look to change our focus to one that..... Only success will be accepted

8th.... And an elimination final... If we lose it. SFW.

Only reason to make finals, is to keep the possibility of winning a GF alive in that season.... IMO if your not top 4 or at worst top 6 realistically your not a final list...how many premiers have come from 7-8 in 20 years.

Rather finish 8th ahead of 9th.....but not losing sleep thinking about one spot on a ladder mid rung

Why do you say things like you do as if they have been written by someone else. Who mentioned anything you just said. No one. How does it work in your opinion. Do we make the finals in hindsight and if it shows in hindsight we will make only the GF and then lose the next week then bugger it, we should have just finished 18 and be done with it. I will say it again. Only arrogant supporters and people who have followed the clun in only successful times wouldnt enjoy making the finals again. You actually can plan to win a GF and finish 8th. You do know that, dont you or do you think you can only plan to win a GF from out of the finals. It is arrogant crap not to want to play a final whether you win or lose.

[kosifantutti]

I'd love to see Simpkin, Siposs etc playing in a final.

[plugger66]

I'd love to see Simpkin, Siposs etc playing in a final.

Why? If we cant win the GF its not much better than finishing 9th.

[SaintPav]

Best we can hope to finish is 7th.
But topsy turvy season. Top 12 - anyone can beat anyone pretty much on their day. There are no stand out sides.

but not in finals..Hawthorn, West coast and Pies will lift significantly in the finals and the others won't come close..