The rebuild

[Richter]

What I saw last night was that our blokes looked old, slow and second rate. That means that the rebuild, IMO, needs to pick up steam...

Part I

We don't want to offload all of our elite players for picks... there is a role for the likes of Roo, Chips et al. in schooling the new blokes coming through... it is by playing alongside the likes of Dal and Lenny that blokes like Jack and Armo have become better players.

Having said that, there is room to potentially move one or two elite players off the list for picks in next year's draft (or 2013). The way that is done is to be honest with the guys about where we are at... and that we are highly unlikely to make it to the summit again in time for the 2000-2002 crew to even taste finals success again. We would then ask guys to sign up for this 'mentoring role'... or not... those who say no will be allowed to move on... for maximum concessions to St Kilda of course...

The elite players

Roo - I think will stay on... not got enough left in the tank to go somewhere else

Chips - Has already signed on for a couple more years

BJ - I expect him to leave... reluctantly, because he has mates at the club, but he has the potential to win a flag elsewhere

Joey - loves the club and the boys and has his burgeoning career at Ch7 post-footy to think about so I think he'll stay

Dal - I think he'd want to stay... and I'd like him to.. but can see him leaving for another crack elsewhere while he still can... if he wanted to go and we were offered a 1st and 2nd rounder for him... surely we'd take that at the end of the year

Lenny - if he buys in to the rebuild, which I think he will, then I can see him going another year or two after this one.... particularly if Dal and/or BJ were to go... I think he'd take pride in bringing the next lot of guys through...

The next group

Kosi - back up (at best next year).. if he were not contracted then I would seriously consider de-listing. He's taking the place of a young player in the team

Gram - I don't mind Gram, but I see him as taking a place which is a good development spot for a young bloke like Newnes to play... i.e. outside mid/small rebounding defender. He's contracted for next year, but would seriously look at de-listing him the year after that

Blake, Milne - taking up the spot of a younger player... for mine gone at the end of the year...

Polo, Peake - finished at AFL level

Dempster, Ray, Jones, Schneider, Clarke - GOPS who I see value in keeping on the list... can't blood all of the youngsters at once...

Gwilt, Gilbert - youger GOPS who are both capable of another 5-6 years of AFL footy

The financial upshot

We should consider running at 92.5% of our cap over the next 2-3 years in order to

a/ as a club, save $$
b/ have plenty in the kitty to secure potential future trades eg from GC and GWS (the 'come home' factor)
c/ have plenty in the kitty to secure potential future free agents
d/ have plenty in the kitty to secure our own younger players coming out of contract in the next few years

[bergholt]

Good post, I have trouble disagreeing with any of this - though it seems unlikely that we can get down to 92.5% any time soon as there are very few degrees of freedom given already signed contracts.

I'd love to believe that the club and administration have the appetite for a hard decision like this as I think it's our best hope of winning a flag in the next ten years. But in practice I think all the incentives are too short-term, so it will essentially be a bitter fight against decline which leaves the club in a very poor position in three years.

[plugger66]

95% minimum now. We couldnt get there next year unless we unloaded BJ and Joey and only got young guys in.

[Dave McNamara]

Great post Richter! I always like your stuff - though I'm opposed to tanking.

95% minimum now. We couldnt get there next year unless we unloaded BJ and Joey and only got young guys in.

Grammy has an 'in' clause in his contract for next year it seems(?) But does that include his current salary (whatever that actually may be), or is salary up for renegotiation?

[plugger66]

Great post Richter! I always like your stuff - though I'm opposed to tanking.

95% minimum now. We couldnt get there next year unless we unloaded BJ and Joey and only got young guys in.

Grammy has an 'in' clause in his contract for next year it seems(?) But does that include his current salary (whatever that actually may be), or is salary up for renegotiation?

I wouldnt have a clue but i hope the paper talk is wrong about Grammy. Disgraceful list management if true.

[nobhead]

peake
polo
blake
milne
clarke imo should not be there next year .
others who could make way
gilbert
jones
kosi
gram
would that give us enough room to move in our salary cap?

[BringBackMadDog]

The talk to get rid of Milne sh1ts the death out of me, he is in the top 3 small forwards of ALL TIME. He has kicked 27 goals 25 points from 13 games and even on a bad day still kicked more goals than Milera, Saad and Kosi and Schneider combined.

Anyway you slice it the bloke is a champ and gets the best defenders week in week out. He makes life easier for Saad and co to get a kick. Take him out of the side and then see how hard it is for the others.

[Teflon]

The talk to get rid of Milne sh1ts the death out of me, he is in the top 3 small forwards of ALL TIME. He has kicked 27 goals 25 points from 13 games and even on a bad day still kicked more goals than Milera, Saad and Kosi and Schneider combined.

Anyway you slice it the bloke is a champ and gets the best defenders week in week out. He makes life easier for Saad and co to get a kick. Take him out of the side and then see how hard it is for the others.

Lets call it as it is right now.

He aint the future.
Is no good interstate/against quality opponents (only good at Etihad against cr@p teams)
Is selfish
Thinks hes a lead up forward
Makes dumb decisions, spins round in circles and gets caught weekly
Does not apply ANY defensive fwd 50 pressure and tackles innefectively

We can no longer carry pure specialist fwd pockets into the future IMO it makes us easy to plan for and play against - we must be versatile and have players who can do a small fwd role and run through the middle.

[bobmurray]

The talk to get rid of Milne sh1ts the death out of me, he is in the top 3 small forwards of ALL TIME. He has kicked 27 goals 25 points from 13 games and even on a bad day still kicked more goals than Milera, Saad and Kosi and Schneider combined.

Anyway you slice it the bloke is a champ and gets the best defenders week in week out. He makes life easier for Saad and co to get a kick. Take him out of the side and then see how hard it is for the others.

Lets call it as it is right now.

He aint the future.
Is no good interstate/against quality opponents (only good at Etihad against cr@p teams)
Is selfish
Thinks hes a lead up forward
Makes dumb decisions, spins round in circles and gets caught weekly
Does not apply ANY defensive fwd 50 pressure and tackles innefectively

We can no longer carry pure specialist fwd pockets into the future IMO it makes us easy to plan for and play against - we must be versatile and have players who can do a small fwd role and run through the middle.

Did you talk to GT before you wrote that...

[Richter]

Good post, I have trouble disagreeing with any of this - though it seems unlikely that we can get down to 92.5% any time soon as there are very few degrees of freedom given already signed contracts.

I'd love to believe that the club and administration have the appetite for a hard decision like this as I think it's our best hope of winning a flag in the next ten years. But in practice I think all the incentives are too short-term, so it will essentially be a bitter fight against decline which leaves the club in a very poor position in three years.

I have more faith in the likes of Pelchen in particular... but the skill is going to be in managing to only lose the 1 or 2 top players... not all of them...

re the cap... next year it will be nearly $8.8m rising to $9.1 and then $9.6m.... (http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default ... sid=127283)... the minimum to be paid by each club is 95% (not 92.5% which it is at the moment... thanks P66 for pointing that out).... 5% of that is around $450,000 which in the scenario that I have pointed out above whereby we lose BJ at the very least, would easily be doable...

Needless to say, $450,000 a year added on to a potential NZ ANZAC day game would help to mitigate our already tricky financial position... factor in also the likely drop in membership as we drop down the tree...

[bigcarl]

The talk to get rid of Milne sh1ts the death out of me, he is in the top 3 small forwards of ALL TIME. He has kicked 27 goals 25 points from 13 games and even on a bad day still kicked more goals than Milera, Saad and Kosi and Schneider combined.

This. Regardless of whether you are rebuilding, you don't p*ss off legends of the club without knowing for certain that they are gone and Milney is not.

[Richter]

Part II - looking at each line

Midfield

Experienced mids: Lenny, Dal, Joey, BJ, Jones, Ray
Young mids: Steven, Armo
Inexperienced/yet to debut mids: Cripps, Newnes, Ledger, Ross, Webster
Likely to be delisted: Winmar, Crocker, Polo, Peake

Over the rest of this year and then the following two seasons it is vital that games are pumped in to the 3rd group. We need to see how many of these guys have what it takes to join Jack and Armo as our next core group of mids.

Draft: You can never get enough mids...

Ruck

Main ruck: McEvoy,
Other rucks: Stanley, Blake, Koschitzke

A concern for us. Big Ben seems like a great bloke and can play footy around the park.... but he's a poor no.1 ruck and it is hurting us now, and may potentially do so in the future also... if he doesn't improve then at some point in the next 3 years we need to spend something to pick up a recycled ruckman along the lines of Jacobs, Maric, Gardiner, King, Ottens, Jolley... as it is we will need to keep Kosi and possibly even Blake to be back-up ruck... or pick up a VFL GOP ruckman as cover for injury...

Defence

Experienced: Fisher, Gram, Dempster, Blake
Young to Mid-age: Gwilt, Gilbert, Clarke, Geary,
Inexperienced: Lever, Ferguson, Simpkin

Drafting priorities: a Tall key backman, a rebounding defender

Forward

Experienced: Milne, Riewoldt, Koschitzke, Schneider
Young/Inexperienced: Stanley, Sippos, Milera, Saad, Wilkes
Green: Dunnell, Markworth, Minchington

We have a reasonable potential supporting cast here, but it will need Milney and Kosi to step aside to give the younger players the experience they need...

2012-4 forward line of Riewoldt and Stanley backed up by Sippos, Schneider, Saad and Milera has potential for mine.

Draft: We need to strongly consider using our highest pick this year on the best available key Tall forward... it'll take a few years until said player will be ready at AFL level... on the other hand if the right player is not available at our pick (may be around 6-8?) , we may be better to wait another year, as you only need one absolute gun key Tall to replace Riewoldt... the rest comes down to having smart players around him...

[vacuous space]

Gram - I don't mind Gram, but I see him as taking a place which is a good development spot for a young bloke like Newnes to play... i.e. outside mid/small rebounding defender. He's contracted for next year, but would seriously look at de-listing him the year after that

The AFL site has Gram down as a free agent after this year.

As for Gram holding a development spot, we've seen Newnes and he's clearly a step below the top level right now. He needs to work hard on and off the field so he's more ready at his next opportunity. That goes for all the kids. Gifting them games will not fast track their development. Spots need to be earned, otherwise you end up like Melbourne.

[hungry for a premiership]

Great summation Richter, nice work.

RE: Milne

A compromise between those on either side of the argument - keep him on the list for another 1-2 years and gradually fade him out as he's replaced by Saad and Milera. Can really see him becoming exceptional at filling the role of sub, coming on for a quarter and a half to bag a couple of clutch goals. Agreed, he can't retard the growth of a newbie, but it'd be dumb negligence to delist him and not extract the bite that's left in the old yapper, yet...

RE: McEvoy

Around the ground and in general play, he has the potential to be the best big man in the comp.

In the ruck contest itself, he'll never be anything more than a GOP.

He's definitely worth keeping long-term, IMO, but for us to be effective in the ruck he needs to be working in-tandem with another ruck who specializes in tap-outs.


It's hard to argue with your summation - if Watters wants to turn us into a contender in 2-3 years, the best thing he can do is engineer an amicable exit for BJ an Dal. Be sad to see them go. But methinks the excitement of 2-3 first round picks in the strongest draft in 15 years would probably make up for it.

[plugger66]

A rebuild is needed. This year was our last chance and we have found to be short and that is due to our mids not being accountable and a very poor backline. I still say that is why RL played that type of footy. He saw the deficiencies. Anyway you can rebuild without throwing nearly all the experienced players out. The 30 year olds we still need are Hayes and Milne and of course Rooy. The rest arent needed but may be contracted so they may have to stay. There are some 26-29 year olds that should go to. A couple of obvious ones and one or two others. If we upgrade 2 rookies we need 5 other picks so 7 must go altogether and that forgets trades as they are impossible to guess. My point is we dont need to get rid of 10 players. There is no point. Pick 120 doesnt really mean a lot.

[BringBackMadDog]

The talk to get rid of Milne sh1ts the death out of me, he is in the top 3 small forwards of ALL TIME. He has kicked 27 goals 25 points from 13 games and even on a bad day still kicked more goals than Milera, Saad and Kosi and Schneider combined.

Anyway you slice it the bloke is a champ and gets the best defenders week in week out. He makes life easier for Saad and co to get a kick. Take him out of the side and then see how hard it is for the others.

Lets call it as it is right now.

He aint the future.
Is no good interstate/against quality opponents (only good at Etihad against cr@p teams)
Is selfish
Thinks hes a lead up forward
Makes dumb decisions, spins round in circles and gets caught weekly
Does not apply ANY defensive fwd 50 pressure and tackles innefectively

We can no longer carry pure specialist fwd pockets into the future IMO it makes us easy to plan for and play against - we must be versatile and have players who can do a small fwd role and run through the middle.

Ok, right at this moment, he is our second highest goal scorer and if he had kicked as accurately as he has for the past 10 years, would of had 40 goals by mid season. How do you replace that??? Still in the top 2 or 3 small forwards in the game. Have a look at how Betts and Gartlett are doing with more focus on them, Milne gas copped that for years but still averages around 50 goals per year. He's a freak

[prwilkinson]

I've been as positive as possible about our chances but that was the end of the era for me on Sunday. It really was a great decade of footy. Such a shame we didn't get to hold that cup aloft just once.... sigh...

[bergholt]

Ruck

Main ruck: McEvoy,
Other rucks: Stanley, Blake, Koschitzke

A concern for us. Big Ben seems like a great bloke and can play footy around the park.... but he's a poor no.1 ruck and it is hurting us now, and may potentially do so in the future also... if he doesn't improve then at some point in the next 3 years we need to spend something to pick up a recycled ruckman along the lines of Jacobs, Maric, Gardiner, King, Ottens, Jolley... as it is we will need to keep Kosi and possibly even Blake to be back-up ruck... or pick up a VFL GOP ruckman as cover for injury...

Obviously we need a good kid, but the right option for next year is to also get the new Steven King or even Matty Clarke - an experienced ruckman who doesn't have to play every week but can provide a contest as much as necessary. Minson, Jamar, McIntosh? Maybe even someone like Darren Jolly? Pies have a lot of talls coming through, especially if they win the flag this year he could be up for a last couple of years somewhere.

I think it would make a lot of sense to play McEvoy in Kosi's current position, forward with spells in the ruck, but that only happens if there's someone solid to play ruck with spells forward.

[Kernal75]

I can't understand why some are so keen on keeping older players at the club just because they have been "great players". Time stops for no man and Sunday was a glaring example of exactly where we are at. Why hold onto blokes who are 30 and out of contract for 2 years when they will be taking the place of someone else. Think about what our team will look like in 2014 or 2015 and then determine whether the likes of Milne, Gram, Blake, Kosi, et all really have a role to play. Rebuiilding is inevitable and the sooner it starts then the sooner we can possibly challenge again.
All of these have been great servants of our club but the time has come for them to be recognised but moved on.

[borderbarry]

Correct me if I am wrong, but dont we have 2 spots on our list unfilled now, that we could'nt fill due to salary cap worries?
If that is the case, we need to free up some salary as a priority, so we can have a full complement of players.

[Kernal75]

What about Stanley on LTI and promoting a rookie for the rest of the year (Dunnell)

[spert]

I would rebuild the midfield, as in today's game, it's all won and lost there (great example against North on Sunday). It's not encouraging to see our regular best player is a 32yo coming back from knee reco and in the twighlight of his career. I would move on NDS and Montagna who both play too much in their comfort zones and just get tagged out too easily- keep developing and playing younger mids. Steven will only get better, same goes for Stanley and even Armo. The recruiters need to look far and wide for another ruck, and another strong mid. Kosi has had his run as has Milne. Other than that, another bigger key position back needs to be found or developed. Simpkin should be in the seniors.

[Little Dozer]

Good post.

Kosi, Gram and Gilbert should all be put up for trade or delisted. They are completely ineffective and liabilities. The club should trade anyone who doesn't want to be a part of the rebuild and gain draft picks.

[samoht]

We need to get it right at the recruitment (and trading) stage.
We should only recruit players with skill, speed and ticker. All 3 boxes need to be ticked from now on, no more compromises.
Similarly we should only trade players on our list who don't tick all three boxes for players that do.
This way we continually improve our stocks and our team in all the 3 key areas - skill, speed and ticker.
We need some quality control.

[Richter]

The AFL site has Gram down as a free agent after this year.

As for Gram holding a development spot, we've seen Newnes and he's clearly a step below the top level right now. He needs to work hard on and off the field so he's more ready at his next opportunity. That goes for all the kids. Gifting them games will not fast track their development. Spots need to be earned, otherwise you end up like Melbourne.

I disagree vs, playing young players who may not give as much in the short term, in preference to older GOPs who will perform better now but don't have the potential for the future is exactly what teams need to do when they in are a rebuilding/development phase.