Season Outlook after 9 Games

[bergholt]

It's looking better than it might have.

At 3-2 after five rounds I thought we could easily slide to 3-6 after nine, so to be sitting 5-4 is pleasing. We've beaten two teams just above us (Carlton and Sydney) and lost to two teams just below us (Fremantle and Hawthorn) so that suggests our 7th spot is about right for now.

We're in the middle of this big group of OK teams scrapping for 5th to 8th: Sydney, Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle, Richmond, Footscray, North. Nine teams, four spots. At least a couple of teams from that group are going to find some serious form before the end of the season and we need to be one of them.

So in the next six rounds, until we play the Swans again, we've got:

Richmond at Docklands
Gold Coast at Gold Coast
Adelaide at Football Park
North Melbourne at Docklands
Essendon at Docklands
Brisbane at The Gabba

Whaddya reckon? We rarely beat Essendon or Adelaide in Adelaide, and they're both playing well this year, so that's two losses. (And both are off six day breaks, if you care about that.) We'll obviously beat Gold Coast so that's a win.

The three important ones are Richmond, North and Brissie. Win all of those and we'll be 9-6 and definitely play finals. Lose one of those - and our form so far suggests we'll lose at least one - and we're 8-7 and battling. Lose two and we're 7-8, not playing particularly well and so really up against it. Lose three and we're playing for draft picks.

Friday night is a must win in the context of the season.

[plugger66]

Certainly a win maybe 2 ahead of where I thought we would be after we had played 5 games. Next week is huge. Could easily be game of the round. The Tigers are a real good side. We can beat them. If we do then apart Adelaide the draw opens up. The pace of our side is amazing. Yes the would pace and amazing belongs to the Saints. Getting tired could be a worry but who cares. Keep playing like we have and a top 6 to 8 position is a real chance.

[Toy Saint]

The round 1 loss to Port Adelaide hurts.

Next week against the Tigers is important.

It's hard to find a premership favourite this year, and IF the Saints have a full team in good form at the end of the year, we could steal the flag.

[Thinline]

Tigers on back of multiple short weeks is a huge ask an they are really, genuinely flying. They have pushed several good teams close and now theyve snagged a scalp they will be c**k a hoop. Biggest challenge of our year so far. Have to be at Carltonesque win form. Maric in ruck, Martin and Cotchin worry me I must say.

[SaintPav]

The round 1 loss to Port Adelaide hurts.

Next week against the Tigers is important.

It's hard to find a premership favourite this year, and IF the Saints have a full team in good form at the end of the year, we could steal the flag.

Not getting the four points always hurts but given the way we played against Port I reckon we got more out of the loss and it shows in the way we have played since.

[older saint]

JUst did the AFL ladder predictor and based on wining Rich, Bris nd North, losing Ess and Adel and then following it through we will need to beat Geel and Carlt towards the end to make the 8

[Legendary]

We will need a couple of good wins in the second half of the year to make the finals.

Basically we need to beat 2 (and possibly 3, depending on whether we beat Richmond) out of Carlton, Geelong, Adelaide, Essendon and Collingwood in the run home.

This is very achievable.

I would argue that if we can't beat 2-3 of those sides, it's pointless playing finals anyway, as we won't go very far.

[Quixote]

We will need a couple of good wins in the second half of the year to make the finals.

Basically we need to beat 2 (and possibly 3, depending on whether we beat Richmond) out of Carlton, Geelong, Adelaide, Essendon and Collingwood in the run home.

This is very achievable.

I would argue that if we can't beat 2-3 of those sides, it's pointless playing finals anyway, as we won't go very far.

Exactly my thoughts.

[bergholt]

I would argue that if we can't beat 2-3 of those sides, it's pointless playing finals anyway, as we won't go very far.

yeah, agreed.

ideally we'd be in an ok position about round 18 and then start to run into some form as a team, build to the finals. limping in never really works. this would mean running collingwood close and then beating both geelong and carlton - and thumping melbourne and gws - in the last four games. add to this an ounce of luck with injuries and we'd be looking pretty good even if we were sitting 5th to 8th.

[Scollop]

I don't want to be 'realistic'. Realistic means that you put a ceiling on what you can achieve. Realistic means that you strive for mediocrity. I would argue that our team could surprise with our regulars building confidence and with Gwilt and Lenny back this year and right now with competition for spots there's every chance that this is lifting the whole playing group. Shortly with the other talls - Chips and Macca and Stanley back in the team the coaching staff have the luxury of picking a team to suit each opposition.

Armo and Steven are adding to our midfield. Guys like Ray and Joey are getting the hunger back. I believe we have what it takes and the improvement is achievable. What we need is buy in from the whole club. I would hope that even the most pessimistic supporters are also starting to see the light and starting to get back on board. Roo and BJ and Dal and Miney and Gilbo and Blake need to play their guts out, our spine needs to be settled with Kosi sitting close to home in the goalsquare and if we don't get any serious injuries to KPP we could make it to top 4.

If our younger guys, especially Simpkin, Saad and Millera can keep performing week in and week out and the stars and regulars maintain their form, I reckon we can beat every other team in the 8 including the Crows, Bombers and Collingwood. We only play them once as well as once versus Cats. Obviously it'll be tough versus the Pies at the G, Crows at Aami and Bombers at home, but I know we are an improved side - I know we can get better from this point on.

You'd have to say that the Eagles are looking like Premiership favourites, however finals can be a different ball game. If we meet them in Melbourne and if they have to travel a couple of weeks in a row, then once again that is in our favour. I want my team to aim for the top and I'm pretty sure as professionals that's exactly what they're doing...one week at a time of coarse CARNA SAINTS

[meher baba]

I reckon we are potentially as good as anyone. We are certainly a better team than Richmond and i am feeling more confident than most on here that we will win on Friday and, furthermore, win 5 or 6 out of the 6 games listed above.

The Port loss doesn't matter diddly squat. We are on an upswing ATM. The players feel confident, we are winning in the clearances (even against the Eagles) and we are looking dangerous with the ball. We can beat any of the other teams on our day. If some of the new-found confidence could rub off on BJ and he could start playing the way he hasn't done since the 2010 GF, then we'd be unstoppable.

We are vulnerable only in that, as always, we need key players to be fit. Lenny and Riewoldt are crucial, and we are light on in the rucks and down back.

But we are still a seriously dangerous team and, if a few things go our way, we are a genuine premiership threat. Everyone, including most Saints fans, have written us off too soon. Who could have predicted how the younger guys have gone? Steven, Simpkin, Stanley (before he got injured) and, at long last, Armitage. And the wave of improvement is also lifting guys like Dempster, Jones. Blake and Geary, none of whom I have ever seen play better.

We've a long way to go, but it's all a rather pleasant surprise. Perhaps the Tigers will bring it to ground with a thud, but I don't think so.

[plugger66]

I reckon we are potentially as good as anyone. We are certainly a better team than Richmond and i am feeling more confident than most on here that we will win on Friday and, furthermore, win 5 or 6 out of the 6 games listed above.

The Port loss doesn't matter diddly squat. We are on an upswing ATM. The players feel confident, we are winning in the clearances (even against the Eagles) and we are looking dangerous with the ball. We can beat any of the other teams on our day. If some of the new-found confidence could rub off on BJ and he could start playing the way he hasn't done since the 2010 GF, then we'd be unstoppable.

We are vulnerable only in that, as always, we need key players to be fit. Lenny and Riewoldt are crucial, and we are light on in the rucks and down back.

But we are still a seriously dangerous team and, if a few things go our way, we are a genuine premiership threat. Everyone, including most Saints fans, have written us off too soon. Who could have predicted how the younger guys have gone? Steven, Simpkin, Stanley (before he got injured) and, at long last, Armitage. And the wave of improvement is also lifting guys like Dempster, Jones. Blake and Geary, none of whom I have ever seen play better.

We've a long way to go, but it's all a rather pleasant surprise. Perhaps the Tigers will bring it to ground with a thud, but I don't think so.

Ridiculous to say certainly better than the Tigers. i know you compare results but we lost to hawks and the Tigers just won by 10 goals. make no mistake Richmond can play. This will be a tough game. And the Port loss means nothing to how we are playing now but it means 4 points that you cant get back and thiose 4 points will just about certainly mean something at the end of the year.

[meher baba]

Well, I reckon we are better than the Tigers ATM. Our game against Hawthorn was a few weeks back before we turned the corner. We've got a new coach, have quite a few new (or newish) players and are learning to play in quite a different way. It was always going to take at least a few games. That's why I'm not all that worried about the Port or Freo losses.

I'm generally an optimist, but i didn't think we had a hope in hell on Saturday. Yet we ran away with the game and I take great heart from that.

[Beno88]

We have gone win - loss since round 3, and there's a chance on current form we could do it for the reason of the season, leaving us 11-11.

Rich L
GC W
Adel L
NM W
Ess L
Bris W
Syd L
WB W
Coll L
Melb W
Geel L
GWS W
Carl L

Makes winning this week critical. If we can string three wins together at any stage, it might be enough to get us ahead of the pack.

Beating Sydney or Carlton or both again would be very handy.

[SainterK]

Can we bump the one of everyones outlooks before the last 4 games?

[bergholt]

Can we bump the one of everyones outlooks before the last 4 games?

good plan, mrs g!

[Gwilt Edged]

I have a sneaky feeling our new gameplan will hold up against the bombers - could well snag a win in that one

As long as the midfield doesn't need reminding every 2nd week of the importance of the contests - consistency and a bit of luck with injuries - anything's possible

[QuestionOfAccuracy]

The form of the side over the last few weeks shows that we are a week-to-week proposition. Not a good idea to be looking ahead to the second half of the season.

This week is another chance for the team to validate itself as a top 8 side. We couldn't back up after the Blues win, I hope we can this time.

[bigcarl]

We couldn't back up after the Blues win, I hope we can this time.

Well, we're at home this time which ought to make a difference.

Actually our record away from home recently has been a bit of a worry. Well beaten by Hawthorn at the MCG, lost to Port over there and beaten by the Eagles last week.

[philtee]

I like this thread.But, our poor starts of the last two weeks must be a concern.
Can't afford a slow start against the Tiges, who will hit the game running.

[rexy]

In reality our midfield is equal to anyone in the AFL, Hayes Goddard DalSanto Montagna Jones Steven Armitage Ray provide a great combination of hardness speed and skill. I am disappointed in the losses to PA and Freo however the win over Carlton was unexpected for me. Think 5-4 is about right but think we have the potential to finish much better than that. Think we can get the Tiges.

[TJMcCarthy]

The test this year is to win a few games in a row. We will scare plenty if we can do that and make the finals.

If we beat the RFC then I fancy our chances against the similar game style EFC.