Stats re Ruckman effectiveness....

[WinnersOnly]

This article off the Player Rater site is very good and puts in to perpective how poor McEvoy with his tap work.

http://www.playerrater.com.au/news/stat ... e-hit-outs

When analysing the effectiveness of a ruckman, it’s often the ‘hitouts’ column that draws the most attention. But just like with kicking and handballing, some players are more effective than others.

The table below focuses on statistical areas relating to the tap-work of ruckmen. Including: Hit-outs (HO), Hit-outs To Advantage (HTA) and Effective Hit-outs (%EffHO)
The difference between 'Hit-outs To Advantage' and 'Effective Hit-outs'- Hit-outs To Advantage: refer to when a player taps the ball directly to a teammate from a stoppage.- Effective Hit-outs: refer to hit-outs that result in retaining team possession - and ultimately first disposal.
Notes:
•The table is sorted by percentage of Hit-outs to Advantage (%HTA).•The rank on the left refers to Hit-outs per game (HO).•When it comes to delivering effective hit-outs, it’s the heavy built ruckmen (typically stand and tap ruckmen) like Mark Jamar, Darren Jolly and Shane Mumford that deliver the best results.•For the most part, ‘Hit-outs To Advantage’ and ‘Effective Hit-outs’ go hand in hand, but there are exceptions. Robbie Warnock is an example of a ruckman that gets flattered by the effectiveness of his midfielders. The numbers indicate that Warnock is good at tapping to a general area and gaining ground for his team, but not necessarily skilled at tapping directly to the advantage of a teammate.•By these measures, Sam Jacobs is perhaps the most misleading ruckmen in the league. Jacobs is ranked 5th in the AFL for hit-outs per game, but ranks toward the bottom in hit-outs to advantage and effective hit-outs.


Hit-out statistics (per game) 2011:

Rank Player GP HO HTA %HTA %EffHO
(HO)
6 M Jamar (MELB) 14 29.2 12.1 41.4 50.9
11 D Jolly (COLL) 12 24.8 9.8 39.5 54.0
3 S Mumford (SYD) 16 32.8 12.8 39.0 50.1
23 T Bellchambers 13 20.5 7.7 37.6 46.6
8 D Cox (WCE) 21 28.0 10.5 37.5 44.8
2 A Sandilands (FR 12 34.3 11.7 34.1 48.1
25 N Naitanui (WCE)19 18.1 6.1 33.7 44.5
18 B Hudson (WB) 16 22.5 7.4 32.9 48.3
28 Z Smith (GCS) 19 17.0 5.5 32.4 48.9
4 M Leuenberger (B)21 32.0 10.3 32.2 45.5
1 T Goldstein (NM) 20 36.2 11.3 31.2 48.5
7 R Warnock (C) 17 28.1 8.5 30.3 50.2
9 B Ottens (GEEL) 16 25.2 7.6 30.2 45.7
5 S Jacobs (ADEL) 18 31.9 9.6 30.1 44.8
19 M Bailey (HAW) 13 21.0 6.2 29.5 47.6
17 B McEvoy (STK) 20 22.6 6.6 29.2 44.2
22 D Brogan (PORT) 11 20.5 5.8 28.3 43.8
15 C Wood (COLL) 11 23.5 6.2 26.4 47.9
13 A Graham (RICH) 13 23.8 6.0 25.2 48.5

NOTE: That McEvoy has the 2nd lowest hit out effectiveness with only Brogan doing worse. If they also included hitouts per game time I think you would find McEvoy would slip further down the rankings. He rucked for long periods last year where as other lower rated ruckman had much less game time. I believe he would be the worst ranked ruckman in the competition.

Take the blinkers off people this clearly shows he is one of the worst ruckman in the competition!

[samoht]

I think we're making a big deal about very little at the end of the day.... at the end of the day the difference is 6 hitouts to advantage between the very best (Mumford) and McEvoy.
Out of those 6 more hitouts to advantage .. 4 would probably be away from the forward line and the Swan player receiving the "advantage" would be put under pressure.
It doesn't guarantee anything.
Ruckman are way overrated !

I'm happy with Mcevoy around the ground and vs 90% of the ruckmen - he might get one or two less hit outs to advantage than the average schmuckman - big deal.
I'm not going to criticise him for that - i think we need to look at his total/overall effectiveness !

The area that we need to improve in IMO (sorry to keep repeating it) is we have 3 or 4 small forwards at the moment (which is basically half our forward line) .. we need to replace 2 of them with quick medium sized forwards that will take marks and up our forward tackling/chasing pressure - hopefully one or two of the prospects can come through for us !
A good, quick medium sized forward or two would make an enormous difference... I'd prefer that to a Mumford.

[Con Gorozidis]

Ruckman are way UNDER -RATED and the hit-out stats mean nothing.

What I see are big bodied uints (e.g Ottens & Jolly) with who are wide and strong through the hips with massive posteriors who are smart and know where to stand and create holes and space for their mids. Make no mistake these big units make guys like Pendles and Swan and Selwood etc look much better at stoppages.

Can someone show me winning % for pies and cats with and without these 2 ruckmen in the last 4 years please?

[samoht]

At the end of the day Con the very best ruckman has only 6 more hitouts to advantage than McEvoy. .. even if Mumford makes space on those 6 occasions the players receiving the advantage still are under pressure.

[SainterK]

He can improve, and I'd back him to do so. Determined young guy is Owl

[paddy]

I understand what you are trying to point out with your post, but a ruckman's job isn't just hit-outs..... (well most of it is, but there are other areas that they contribute too)

Macca is fantastic around the groung and probably our best contested mark. (I think at one stage he was in the top 5 contested marks in the league)

As has been said above, he may not be one of the top hitout ruckmen, but the difference between the top and the bottom istn't that much, and I think that Big Ben makes up for his young body, and beige stats with his work around the ground.

Ben is definately a keeper... And I dont say that with blikers on!

[Con Gorozidis]

At the end of the day Con the very best ruckman has only 6 more hitouts to advantage than McEvoy. .. even if Mumford makes space on those 6 occasions the player receiving the advantage still are under pressure.

i forgot about mummy. massive bloke.
owl will get better as he gets bigger. hes going just fine IMHO.

[samoht]

Geelong got better after he and Ablett left ?

[hAyES]

There's no need to be nice about this, Macca is awful in a ruck contest and it's the biggest reason why we were near the bottom of the league in clearances last year. Good around the ground, but can't get his hand on the ball to save his life.

[samoht]

What would be awful is if your hitouts go to the opposition's advantage .. is there any stats for that ?
Hit outs to disadvantge ?

[gringo]

He is a developing ruck still and needs to learn the art of tap work. He will get better with time and is shouldering more of a load than most. Obviously the ruck is extremely important or Melbourne wouldn't have won last years GF.

Seriously though the advantages are also overrated -hitting to a guy for another bounce or ball up is different than smashing it into space for a runner to pounce on in the clear.

We were near the bottom because we rely on Hayes to take the bulk of the clearance work and his understudies didn't take up where he left off.

[WinnersOnly]

I think we're making a big deal about very little at the end of the day.... at the end of the day the difference is 6 hitouts to advantage between the very best (Mumford) and McEvoy.
Out of those 6 more hitouts to advantage .. 4 would probably be away from the forward line and the Swan player receiving the "advantage" would be put under pressure.
It doesn't guarantee anything.
Ruckman are way overrated !

I'm happy with Mcevoy around the ground and vs 90% of the ruckmen - he might get one or two less hit outs to advantage than the average schmuckman - big deal.
I'm not going to criticise him for that - i think we need to look at his total/overall effectiveness !

The area that we need to improve in IMO (sorry to keep repeating it) is we have 3 or 4 small forwards at the moment (which is basically half our forward line) .. we need to replace 2 of them with quick medium sized forwards that will take marks and up our forward tackling/chasing pressure - hopefully one or two of the prospects can come through for us !
A good, quick medium sized forward or two would make an enormous difference... I'd prefer that to a Mumford.

I disagree with the ruckman overated tag ! How many more goals would we kick if we had a ruckman feeding it to the feet of our mids or forwards. Or a ruckman who could go forward and kick goals himself Or a ruckman who could jump to take a contested mark.

[samoht]

Maybe 1 more goal max.- based on 6 more hitouts to advantage (Mumford 12.8 vs McEvoy 6.6).
On most of those 6 more " to advantage" the ball will be outside the F50 anyway (4 times out of the 6) .. or the player will miss the goal or be under pressure and turn it over anyway.
Mcevoy does well around the ground... he can take contested marks.

So McEvoy is underrated .. by as much as the "best" are overrated.
We need good, quick medium sized forwards - that is what we lack !!.

[plugger66]

I think this thread shows that stats can be used anyway you like. Lets get Champion Data stats or having a poo stats. They are just as important. Maybe people should wach the game and make a decision on how a player is going. That is the best stat possible but no as that is to hard for some people. Ben had a very good year and at his age is probably way ahead of where Cox and Sandilands were at the same age. Try that for a stat.

[Sick Nal Danto]

I think this thread shows that stats can be used anyway you like. Lets get Champion Data stats or having a poo stats. They are just as important. Maybe people should wach the game and make a decision on how a player is going. That is the best stat possible but no as that is to hard for some people. Ben had a very good year and at his age is probably way ahead of where Cox and Sandilands were at the same age. Try that for a stat.

I think this is the biggest thing, He is still developing

It's not his fault our list manager(s) didn't plan for Gardi and Kings retirement

Stats say we were 17th, there's really only one way to go UP

[WinnersOnly]

I think this thread shows that stats can be used anyway you like. Lets get Champion Data stats or having a poo stats. They are just as important. Maybe people should wach the game and make a decision on how a player is going. That is the best stat possible but no as that is to hard for some people. Ben had a very good year and at his age is probably way ahead of where Cox and Sandilands were at the same age. Try that for a stat.

This is most credible post you have sumitted in years Plugged!

Yes people can make decisions by watching and having a feel for the game an that is exactly what I have done and supported my thoughts with comparitive stats. I repeat McEvoy IMO (supported by the above stats) is a less than average ruckman! He has no leap to speak of and has obsolutely no understanding of where his team mates are when he is in a contest.

He is Ok at contested marking but is very much in the lumbering slow big man mould. Maybe that is why Stephen KING decided to go because he knew the SAINTS had absolutely nothing to work with in a rucking sense!

[plugger66]

I think this thread shows that stats can be used anyway you like. Lets get Champion Data stats or having a poo stats. They are just as important. Maybe people should wach the game and make a decision on how a player is going. That is the best stat possible but no as that is to hard for some people. Ben had a very good year and at his age is probably way ahead of where Cox and Sandilands were at the same age. Try that for a stat.

This is most credible post you have sumitted in years Plugged!

Yes people can make decisions by watching and having a feel for the game an that is exactly what I have done and supported my thoughts with comparitive stats. I repeat McEvoy IMO (supported by the above stats) is a less than average ruckman! He has no leap to speak of and has obsolutely no understanding of where his team mates are when he is in a contest.

He is Ok at contested marking but is very much in the lumbering slow big man mould. Maybe that is why Ben KING decided to go because he knew the SAINTS had absolutely nothing to work with in a rucking sense!

I dont know Ben King but he obviously didnt have much impact if I havent heard of him. As I said you can use stats for what you like. In your case you chose pure ruck work. Good ruckmen are much more than that. Surely if you do watch footy you should know that. A couple of simple questions for you. How old is Ben, that is McEvoy not King and what age do most ruckmen reach their peak?

[vacuous space]

These stats are telling, at most, half the story. Missing completely is the number of times each ruckman goes for a tap and the effectiveness of their opponents. Sydney has consistently more stoppages every year than most other teams, which pads their ruckman's stats. Rucks who aren't as deft at the taps often play spoiler and body their opponents to make it more difficult for them to get an effective tap. Jason Blake always had low hitout to advantage percentages, but so did his opponents, because he used his body well against bigger opponents. That's what Ben will have to do as his rucking contemporaries (Kreuzer, Leuenberger, Naitanui, Zac Smith, etc) are far more athletic.

Then there's around the ground effectiveness. Fact is, there is a weak correlation between winning and clearances. We haven't had an elite stoppage ruck since Peter Everitt and we've won a lot more games since he left than we did while he was here. I think most coaches would prefer a ruck who is weak at stoppages and strong around the ground than a ruck who's good at stoppages, but struggles around the ground. Ben is one of the best contested marks in the game, and he very rarely turns over the ball. Both thos things are extremely valuable in the modern game.

I said in the Ben to GWS thread that I didn't think Ben is elite, but calling him the worst ruck in the league is ridiculous. I can think of several teams that would gladly swap their number one for ours, no matter where theirs lies on that table.

[8856brother]

Obviously no good. Delist or trade later this year for a couple of Richmond hacks. What a crock

[Con Gorozidis]

Ruckman are way UNDER -RATED and the hit-out stats mean nothing.

What I see are big bodied uints (e.g Ottens & Jolly) with who are wide and strong through the hips with massive posteriors who are smart and know where to stand and create holes and space for their mids. Make no mistake these big units make guys like Pendles and Swan and Selwood etc look much better at stoppages.

Can someone show me winning % for pies and cats with and without these 2 ruckmen in the last 4 years please?

samoht i do appreciate ur analysis. on a weight for age basis. nicnat, bellchambers and zac smith seem to have him covered.

nicnat and zac are awesome players and i have to admit i never watch bombers games (just cant stand them) so i am totally unfamiliar with bellchambers. but on those stats he sounds like a total gun?

so most people think the jury is out on benmac but i think he is developing ok. not a world beater. but above average. would be nice if he had someone to help him out. at leat b mac is improving.

[Rosco]

agree on the stats not being that important. but the analysis is also flawed.
1. don't compare hit out numbers with mumford - sydney are a high stoppage team so he's going to get a lot of hit outs purely because of the number of stoppages. they should record hit outs per ruck contest.
2. effective hit outs are related to the team retaining possession (i.e. they are not directly to advantage). everyone knows our in-and-under game was compromised last year without lenny, with others thrust in there. hence that is more of a team stat. hopefully this will be better in 2012.
3. his HTA% is not that bad league wide. there are a few eilte ruckman with better numbers, but his ruck work isn't there yet. take in to account his around the ground work and age (as plugger said) and he's very promising.

[samoht]

Beware of stats bearing insights.

But as plugger points out - by watching the game and forgetting the stats it's plain to see that Jolly, Jamar and Mumford are the best tap ruckmen, and that McEvoy holds his own around the ground.
But here we need to ask ..
What advantage do the extra 6 hitouts to advantage (c.f. Mcevoy) amount to .. it may not translate to that much of an advantage at the end of the day as team mates still have to take advantage of these "hitouts to advantage" before we can really call them an advantage. That may be true let's say on only 3 occasions out of the 6 hit outs to advantage (on average). Does that make Jolly or Mumford standout ruckmen .. i.e. are we ascribing too much worth to a mere 3 more actual advantages that they may bring on average ? Should we perceive them as being head and shoulders above Mcevoy for that ?

[The Redeemer]

Look at how damn good we were when we had Michael Gardiner and Steven King fit and playing?

Even one...

hmmmm

[Old Mate]

Big Ben is the 6th ranked Dream Team ruckman that means something.