Moneyball
Moderators: Saintsational Administrators, Saintsational Moderators
- hungry for a premiership
- Club Player
- Posts: 856
- Joined: Fri 08 Oct 2010 2:01am
Moneyball
Has anyone seen this movie???
I just watched it and honestly, the parallels between the Cleveland Athletics 2002 season and St.Kilda's '09 season are unbelievable.
They, like us, were/are a team that doesn't have the money as the more powerful clubs.
They had a defensive strategy and there playing list was made up mostly of role players.
They won 20 games straight but didn't win the last game of the season.
The only difference is that at the end of the movie the GM (Brad Pitt) stays loyal to his team and doesn't take the big money offer by the Boston Redsox.
Good movie, I recommend it.
I just watched it and honestly, the parallels between the Cleveland Athletics 2002 season and St.Kilda's '09 season are unbelievable.
They, like us, were/are a team that doesn't have the money as the more powerful clubs.
They had a defensive strategy and there playing list was made up mostly of role players.
They won 20 games straight but didn't win the last game of the season.
The only difference is that at the end of the movie the GM (Brad Pitt) stays loyal to his team and doesn't take the big money offer by the Boston Redsox.
Good movie, I recommend it.
"Too big, too strong, too whatever."
- doppler effect
- Club Player
- Posts: 196
- Joined: Sun 01 Feb 2009 10:16am
- Location: Canberra
Re: Moneyball
Oakland Athletics.hungry for a premiership wrote:the parallels between the Cleveland Athletics 2002 season and St.Kilda's '09 season are unbelievable.
It's a brilliant film though. 4 and a half stars.
- Spinner
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 8502
- Joined: Sat 02 Dec 2006 3:40pm
- Location: Victoria
- Has thanked: 185 times
- Been thanked: 133 times
Great film, just watched it on the weekend.
The parallels are more obvious with Sydneys recruiting. Paul Roos is a big believer.
Recruits such as Mumford, Kennedy, McGlynn.... and unfortunately Tommy Walsh are examples.
Players that were undervalued at their clubs. Mumford is a great example... He wasnt getting played because of the long line in front of him. Same as Walsh.
The parallels are more obvious with Sydneys recruiting. Paul Roos is a big believer.
Recruits such as Mumford, Kennedy, McGlynn.... and unfortunately Tommy Walsh are examples.
Players that were undervalued at their clubs. Mumford is a great example... He wasnt getting played because of the long line in front of him. Same as Walsh.
- PaytonPlace
- Club Player
- Posts: 496
- Joined: Thu 23 Jun 2011 8:31pm
Only problem was Billy Beane wrote the book
And then everyone copied his methods
Bye Bye A's as a competitive force...
http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-04/s ... illy-beane
And then everyone copied his methods
Bye Bye A's as a competitive force...
http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-04/s ... illy-beane
You can listen to Bristle tell you Carlton are still a massive chance at 28 points down with two minutes to go, you can listen to him tell you all about Lorne, or you can watch a monkey on a pushbike...I know which I prefer...
i was going to post this two days ago when i finished watching it. couldnt agree more. the likeness is uncanny. i read an article not long ago that said sydney based their drafting and list management off of the book. it got them a flag by 1 point.
i think its unquestionable that lyon has taken that philosphy to the saints. the problem is he didnt exactly keep the salary cap down. some players were paid very very well others not so well.
movie just depressed me when i was thinking of 09. key difference. lyon went for the money.
i think we've evolved past where lyon is at though. baseball has evolved past where moneyball was at.
i think its unquestionable that lyon has taken that philosphy to the saints. the problem is he didnt exactly keep the salary cap down. some players were paid very very well others not so well.
movie just depressed me when i was thinking of 09. key difference. lyon went for the money.
i think we've evolved past where lyon is at though. baseball has evolved past where moneyball was at.
- busso mick
- Club Player
- Posts: 1212
- Joined: Wed 17 Mar 2004 8:57pm
- Been thanked: 10 times
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 478
- Joined: Sun 09 Oct 2011 6:52pm
I was the same. All I could think of while watching it was the saints almost perfect season of 09 playing with a bunch of misfits ( saints third tier players) , only to go down in the final. When Pitt was too scared to leave the dressing room to watch, it brought up some of the feelings from the g.f . I was actually a bit depressed at the end of the movie. .... Anyway , looking forward to 12 and smashing freo round 4.
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 478
- Joined: Sun 09 Oct 2011 6:52pm
I was the same. All I could think of while watching it was the saints almost perfect season of 09 playing with a bunch of misfits ( saints third tier players) , only to go down in the final. When Pitt was too scared to leave the dressing room to watch, it brought up some of the feelings from the g.f . I was actually a bit depressed at the end of the movie. .... Anyway , looking forward to 12 and smashing freo round 4.
-
- SS Life Member
- Posts: 2622
- Joined: Thu 29 Sep 2011 9:45pm
- saintsRrising
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 30089
- Joined: Mon 15 Mar 2004 11:07am
- Location: Melbourne
- Has thanked: 711 times
- Been thanked: 1233 times
I do not follow your logic on this point.defacto wrote:
the problem is he didnt exactly keep the salary cap down
ALL AFL teams have to pay their players within a tight band. There is a minimum and maximum, and while I do not know the current amount that band only allows a variance of about 10%.
That is a tiny variance, and the minimum was brought in after Fitzroy tried to stay in existence by paying very low salaries.
That meant letting very good, but expensive players go and playing a lot of younger and/or ordinary players and becoming a shocking team due to it.
This upper and lower combo salary cap makes the AFL an unique competition.
Flying the World in comfort thanks to FF Points....
- B W and R all over
- SS Hall of Fame
- Posts: 2220
- Joined: Tue 09 Mar 2004 3:14pm
- Location: Northcote
"I don't leave for clear skies as soon as I start seeing the clouds. I keep thinking something will get better."PaytonPlace wrote:
http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-04/s ... illy-beane
Well there's one major difference between Lyon and Beane.
25 minutes to make a name for yourself like you've never made before.
-
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 5062
- Joined: Sun 27 Feb 2005 2:30am
- Has thanked: 15 times
- Been thanked: 125 times
The book was written by Michael Lewis, who first came to prominence with Liars' Poker, a book about Wall Street, in the late 80's (he resigned from a Wall Street investment bank to write it). He's also written Blind Side (the basis of the film with Bullock) and The Big Short, about the GFC, and a swag of other books.PaytonPlace wrote:Only problem was Billy Beane wrote the book
And then everyone copied his methods
Bye Bye A's as a competitive force...
http://articles.sfgate.com/2012-01-04/s ... illy-beane
Terrific author. Multiple qualifications, including art history and economics. Has worked in art and as a bond trader (among other things). A very diverse thinker which, when you read him, stands out.
'I have no new illusions, and I have no old illusions' - Vladimir Putin, Geneva, June 2021
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 228
- Joined: Wed 13 Sep 2006 8:38pm
- Been thanked: 3 times
Good movie, great book, while the main point of finding undervalued players is good, it doesnt apply as easily to AFL.
1) Afl season is too small statistically, I think MLB is over 100 game season, where statistical anomalies cant exist, ie the best team will win
2) The salary cap doesnt allow for huge inequality between teams
3) Baseball is a 2D game. The batter and the pitcher are the only 2 players in control at any time This is what allows for such "perfect" statistics. AFL being a 3D game doesnt allow for the statistical perfection.
4) Baseball has a fluid trading market
If moneyball existed we would be:
- drafting Fev, proven goalscorer, cheap
- would look at more 21 yo players instead of 18 as we have more history on them
- we would consistently sell off overvalued marquee players, Jason Gram would have been traded following the Geelong GF at an inflated price.
Another book, Soccernomics is quite similar but for soccer, I would highly recommend it.
1) Afl season is too small statistically, I think MLB is over 100 game season, where statistical anomalies cant exist, ie the best team will win
2) The salary cap doesnt allow for huge inequality between teams
3) Baseball is a 2D game. The batter and the pitcher are the only 2 players in control at any time This is what allows for such "perfect" statistics. AFL being a 3D game doesnt allow for the statistical perfection.
4) Baseball has a fluid trading market
If moneyball existed we would be:
- drafting Fev, proven goalscorer, cheap
- would look at more 21 yo players instead of 18 as we have more history on them
- we would consistently sell off overvalued marquee players, Jason Gram would have been traded following the Geelong GF at an inflated price.
Another book, Soccernomics is quite similar but for soccer, I would highly recommend it.
- saintsRrising
- Saintsational Legend
- Posts: 30089
- Joined: Mon 15 Mar 2004 11:07am
- Location: Melbourne
- Has thanked: 711 times
- Been thanked: 1233 times
Though the issue with Fev is not just his football ability...... but the disruption he causes to the club.awesome_days wrote:
If moneyball existed we would be:
- drafting Fev, proven goalscorer, cheap
.
Baseball because of the type of game it is is more suited to a "pure" moneyball approach. However as all the baseball clubs know the strategy now, it's value to gain an edge is lost.
With AFL the lesson is to look for "value". Not in terms of the pure statistical approach of Moneyball but none the less the message is to look in all competitions for "value".
Now "value" for Saints includes improving what we are weak in....footskills and pace. Pelchen this year, and the Saints last year are doing this. Getting this in a value way we can see with Saad and Milera. Whether we actually achive this we will know ina season or two.
Lyon's value early on was different....but it was not all about role, which is what nay focus on and expound the perception that Lyon only gained GOPs that could playa role. Schneider is a very talented player....Lovett was (though had other issues!!!)......Ray was highly rated...and Peake had had his moments. ....and Gardiner certainly had star qualities.
The last year of Lyon's reign saw a change in recruiting thrust....as well as dare I say more able recruiting (and about time too).
Drafting is now more than ever about "value"....and not simply picking the best kids. Good kids are firmly part of the value, equation, but only part.
Our drafting this year is firmly of the "value" model with even some of our kids having an extra year or two in their tank.
Flying the World in comfort thanks to FF Points....
-
- Club Player
- Posts: 1717
- Joined: Thu 24 Sep 2009 2:18am
- Location: Noble Park