Massive age gap in our list

bergholt · Post: # 1170587Post **bergholt** » Sat 29 Oct 2011 2:58pm

It's pretty obvious that our list has two real groups of players - the old ones and the young ones.

At the start of next season we'll have just 5 players in the middle range, between the ages of 22 and 25, two of them absolute rookies: Saad, McEvoy, Geary, Armitage, Milera. So it was very prudent of Pelchen to pick up the two new kids!

Here's how that compares to the last few years:

2012 - 5 players: Saad (0 games), McEvoy (53), Geary (52), Armitage (50), Milera (0)
2011 - 10 players: Walsh (0), Geary (44), Armitage (28), Eddy (23), Gamble (24), Gilbert (87), Gwilt (67), Polo (56), McQualter (84), Ray (125)
2010 - 12 players: Allen (4), Eddy (23), Miles (0), Smith J (27), Gilbert (61), Gwilt (41), McQualter (59), Ray (100), Pattison (61), Dawson (37), Clarke R (57), Goddard (137)
2009 - 14 players: Miles (0), Begley (29), Gilbert (39), Gwilt (26), McQualter (35), Ray (75), Dawson (14), Clarke R (41), Goddard (113), Maguire (99), Ball (122), Schneider (117), Gram (77), Fisher L (55)
2008 - 15 players: Attard (25), Clarke R (30), Goddard (90), Ferguson (10), Maguire (95), Ball (104), Schneider (98), Gram (52), Fisher L (46), Dal Santo (120), Jones (6), Dempster (54), Montagna (73), Clarke X (97), Gardiner C (51)
2007 - 14 players: Ferguson (8), Maguire (85), Ball (86), Gram (32), Fisher L (24), Dal Santo (98), Jones (0), Brooks (8), Montagna (52), Clarke X (79), Birss (51), Riewoldt (114), Koschitzke (78), Fisher S (51)

Taking the very successful 2009 as an example, a big fraction of our side was in this age range - all of Gilbert, McQualter, Ray, Dawson, Goddard, Ball, Schneider and Gram played most games; 8 of the best 22.

Since then, this age range has been dwindling with players failing to come through sufficiently, culminating in massive delistings this year of players around this range.

Looks like lean times down the track with this enormous hole in the list. Given this, I expect to see a couple more recycled or second-tier players drafted in that age range, just to give us some chance of balance.

BigMart · Post: # 1170588Post **BigMart** » Sat 29 Oct 2011 3:03pm

The recruiting and development from 2005-2009 resulted in that....

some would argue against it, but its pretty clear as the OP illustrates

borderbarry · Sat 29 Oct 2011 4:16pm

I would have thought the young group would be 18 - 22, the middle group 23 to 27, and the older group 28 onwards. I dont know how we would stand re the middle ground with that group.

meher baba · Sat 29 Oct 2011 4:49pm

Excellent analysis!

And where does it leave those posters who endlessly bitched and cursed on here that "GT had ruined our list" by 2006?

I always saw it as drivel and perhaps Lyon and those running the club agreed with me and thought "we'll show those idiots on SS what a ruined list really looks like!!"

Munga · Post: # 1170617Post **Munga** » Sat 29 Oct 2011 5:06pm

Quality thread mate well done.
Don't suppose you want to go back to 2003? I kinda see that (late 03) as when our modern era started to gel.

bigcarl · Post: # 1170655Post **bigcarl** » Sat 29 Oct 2011 6:54pm

meher baba wrote:I always saw it as drivel and perhaps Lyon and those running the club agreed with me and thought "we'll show those idiots on SS what a ruined list really looks like!!"

Eastern · Post: # 1170680Post **Eastern** » Sat 29 Oct 2011 8:10pm

BigMart wrote:The recruiting and development from 2005-2009 resulted in that....

some would argue against it, but its pretty clear as the OP illustrates

Was that the Matthew Drain, John Peake recruiting era? Under WHAT circumstances did both these learned gentlemen leave the club? !!

SainterK · Post: # 1170701Post **SainterK** » Sat 29 Oct 2011 8:41pm

Think Geelong has a similar issue?

bergholt · Post: # 1170874Post **bergholt** » Sun 30 Oct 2011 1:33pm

SainterK wrote:Think Geelong has a similar issue?

dunno, but a quick glance shows that their current list has 10 players who'll be between 22 and 25 at the start of next season:

Tom Gillies (8 games), Dawson Simpson (3), Simon Hogan (22), Tom Hawkins (79), Joel Selwood (114), Travis Varcoe (100), Jonathan Simpkin (0), Trent West (20), Marcus Drum (22), Ryan Bathie (0)

so i guess probably not so much.

axcellence · Sun 30 Oct 2011 1:51pm

bergholt wrote:
SainterK wrote:Think Geelong has a similar issue?
dunno, but a quick glance shows that their current list has 10 players who'll be between 22 and 25 at the start of next season:

Tom Gillies (8 games), Dawson Simpson (3), Simon Hogan (22), Tom Hawkins (79), Joel Selwood (114), Travis Varcoe (100), Jonathan Simpkin (0), Trent West (20), Marcus Drum (22), Ryan Bathie (0)

so i guess probably not so much.

I thought drum had retired?

Con Gorozidis · Sun 30 Oct 2011 1:55pm

Outstanding analysis.
One of the best posts in the post lyon era

I think it sums up why we need to hang on to cj and ray and dawson.
Also sums up and gives substance to what was wrong with the lyon era.
He had no eye for the future. It was 09 or bust for him really.
Also I think the boatd were well aware of this list profile and it explains why they hired pelchen to try alter the list profile before we fell off a cliff.
Pelchen is all about the churn. Get lots of picks and churn. If u get 30% strike rate u are going ok.

Mr Magic · Post: # 1170884Post **Mr Magic** » Sun 30 Oct 2011 2:12pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:Outstanding analysis.
One of the best posts in the post lyon era
I think it sums up why we need to hang on to cj and ray and dawson.
Also sums up and gives substance to what was wrong with the lyon era.
He had no eye for the future. It was 09 or bust for him really.
Also I think the boatd were well aware of this list profile and it explains why they hired pelchen to try alter the list profile before we fell off a cliff.
Pelchen is all about the churn. Get lots of picks and churn. If u get 30% strike rate u are going ok.

Too simplistic explanation of Pelchen IMO.
Hawthorn when they were 'bottoming out' did trade players away for draft picks.
But whilst they've been 'contending' they've been trading/drafting 'mature' players in to fill 'holes'
Guerra
Gibson
Burgoyne
Skipper
Bruce
all spring to mind over the past few years.

saintsRrising · Sun 30 Oct 2011 2:25pm

Eastern wrote:
BigMart wrote:The recruiting and development from 2005-2009 resulted in that....

some would argue against it, but its pretty clear as the OP illustrates
Was that the Matthew Drain, John Peake recruiting era? Under WHAT circumstances did both these learned gentlemen leave the club? !!

Bevo for most of it...and Peake at the end of it.

Last season was our best drafting of kids fora long time.

Trades in the Lyon era were IMO good value for talent gained relative to the picks used. Lovett is the most glaring stuff up.

BigMart · Post: # 1170889Post **BigMart** » Sun 30 Oct 2011 2:28pm

There is a big difference between trading required players and recycling delisted players

ie/ Bugoyne.....a gun player, who was traded for...and succeeded....as was Hale

skipper on the other hand was a recycled player....delisted....he lasted one season on their list and ended up in the VFL

their big win was the convincing out of retirement on the overweight Dew...who lasted two years, but one of those years was critical