How many top 10 picks played more than 100 games?

Dan Warna · Post: # 1151738Post **Dan Warna** » Wed 28 Sep 2011 7:56pm

Can any of the stats guru's provide analysis on the top 10 draft picks say from 1995 to 2005 that have played more than 100 games?

What percentage of them have there been?

We go on and on about trading our guns for two round 1 picks, but really, I can't think of that many have that have been superstars from say 100 players in the top 10 from that time, maybe 2 dozen? a 25% success rate for 'gun' players who have stayed injury free? (I don't consider Kosi a 'gun' player btw, nor Ray, nor armitage)

and then maybe compare with the % of 'gun' players from the top 20 (thats 200 players over that era, realising players from 2005 onwards would be lucky to have to have played 100 games).

People talk about top 20 players being instant successes and superstars but really whats the number?

Richter · Post: # 1151747Post **Richter** » Wed 28 Sep 2011 8:09pm

Footywire has this info.....

1995 - 4 of the top 10 played over 100 games
1996 - 3 of the top 10 played over 100 games
1997 - 10 of the top 10 played over 100 games
1998 - 6 of the top 10 played over 100 games
1999 - 7 of the top 10 played over 100 games
2000 - 6 of the top 10 played over 100 games
2001 - 8 of the top 10 played over 100 games
2002 - 7 of the top 10 played over 100 games
2003 - 6 of the top 10 played over 100 games (Raph 18 more to go)
2004 - 7 of the top 10 played over 100 games (Tom Williams of Bulldogs 27 more to go)
2005 - 4 of the top 10 played over 100 games (5 others still listed)

Overall out of 100 top ten draft picks (1995-2004) 64 have (so far) played over 100 games

Old Mate · Post: # 1151752Post **Old Mate** » Wed 28 Sep 2011 8:11pm

These days recruiters get it right more often than not, especially with number 1 picks. This is why this O'Meara bloke is hot property. Barring injuries, he's a dead set cert. to be an absolute gun.

Richter · Post: # 1151756Post **Richter** » Wed 28 Sep 2011 8:20pm

1997 is an interesting year. 10/10 top 10 picks got to 100 games, and 7/10 got over 200 games. Which would suggest the recruiters did a good job. Names include Travis Johnstone, Brad Ottens, Luke Power, Chris Tarrant, Chad Cornes.

Yet the sliders that year included....

31 Simon Black
43 Adam Goodes
(45 Matthew Scarlett - F/S)
82 Nathan Thompson

Of St Kilda's 4 picks only Sam Cranage (18 games) troubled the stats collectors.....

bobmurray · Post: # 1151781Post **bobmurray** » Wed 28 Sep 2011 9:25pm

Richter wrote:1997 is an interesting year. 10/10 top 10 picks got to 100 games, and 7/10 got over 200 games. Which would suggest the recruiters did a good job. Names include Travis Johnstone, Brad Ottens, Luke Power, Chris Tarrant, Chad Cornes.

Yet the sliders that year included....

31 Simon Black
43 Adam Goodes
(45 Matthew Scarlett - F/S)
82 Nathan Thompson

Of St Kilda's 4 picks only Sam Cranage (18 games) troubled the stats collectors.....

not very good at drafting are we....

saintly · Post: # 1151791Post **saintly** » Wed 28 Sep 2011 9:52pm

bobmurray wrote:
Richter wrote:1997 is an interesting year. 10/10 top 10 picks got to 100 games, and 7/10 got over 200 games. Which would suggest the recruiters did a good job. Names include Travis Johnstone, Brad Ottens, Luke Power, Chris Tarrant, Chad Cornes.

Yet the sliders that year included....

31 Simon Black
43 Adam Goodes
(45 Matthew Scarlett - F/S)
82 Nathan Thompson

Of St Kilda's 4 picks only Sam Cranage (18 games) troubled the stats collectors.....
not very good at drafting are we....

how bad have we been at drafting over the past say 6-7 years once we started climbing the ladder?