Westaway joins the fray

[bigcarl]

Of course it's harder for a side to win a flag with two extra teams in it

Going on our history when there was 12,14 and 16 in it,our chances of winning one with 18 in it are cactus...

But if you are the best side you will still win. Why havent we got 10 flags if it is done on odds.

Black Cavier wins whether there is 5 in the field or 20. Her odds dont change because of the numbers.

It is not done on odds,but quite simply,the more competition we have,the harder it is for us to win,I'm not sure how you don't see that? Have you started on the syrup earlier today?

Don't argue the odds with Plugger66. He's a professional punter. Doesn't have to work.

[jonesy]

Has GC made it harder for anyone likely to win the flag this year. No.

.

Not this year,but what about in 3 years time?

Comical

[plugger66]

I await your answer on how they make the draw fair and on how you feel about sides folding.

That's the league's problem to sort out. They're the ones that have cocked it up.

So you admit you are whinging just for the sake of it. Havent got any answers. Well you are probably right. Nothing will change. By the way how could you agree with what Matrix said. It is just plain wrong.

Split it into two divisions with 10 teams in each. Every team plays each other twice. Once at home and once away.

Oh hang on, Eddie wouldn't go for it. Too many matches away from the MCG.

You didnt want 18 but now you want 20. That is funny. Anyway depending on what division you are in the pies may have them all at home so I am unsure what you are on today. Anyway 18 games will eventually ensure we dont have 20, 18 or even 16 sides. Keep trying but remember we need to keep the Saints in the competition.

[perfectionist]

the more teams that join the less chance each one has of winning...

If you mean the premiership, rather than each week, that is true (all things being equal). That is, one out of 18 is less than one out of 17, which is less than one out of 12.

...if ten people do saturday lotto this week i have more chance of winning it than if 100 do it

But that's not true. The chances of picking the winning combination of Tattslotto numbers on a Saturday (one in 8,145,060) does not change no matter how many people enter, the only thing that may change is that more people pick that winning combination thereby lessening your share. However, you can improve your chances of winning by taking more combinations. If you take all 8,145,060 combinations, you are certain to hold the winning combination. Whether you "win" on your rather large outlay will depend on how many others choose the same combination.

A correct analogy with Lotto type games would be to compare your chances of winning under "Old Lotto" when there were just 40 numbers to choose from (one in 3,838,380), with current Tattslotto where there are 45. Your chances of winning decreased significantly (more than 50%), which meant that the "prize" increased, given that the same amount was invested on the game.

[bigcarl]

I await your answer on how they make the draw fair and on how you feel about sides folding.

That's the league's problem to sort out. They're the ones that have cocked it up.

So you admit you are whinging just for the sake of it. Havent got any answers. Well you are probably right. Nothing will change. By the way how could you agree with what Matrix said. It is just plain wrong.

Split it into two divisions with 10 teams in each. Every team plays each other twice. Once at home and once away.

Oh hang on, Eddie wouldn't go for it. Too many matches away from the MCG.

You didnt want 18 but now you want 20. That is funny. Anyway depending on what division you are in the pies may have them all at home so I am unsure what you are on today. Anyway 18 games will eventually ensure we dont have 20, 18 or even 16 sides. Keep trying but remember we need to keep the Saints in the competition.

Leave it at 18 then. Like I said, the league are the ones who have cocked it up. It's on them to fix it.

[matrix]

unreal

how hard is it??
firstly i thought he was winding us up but im now sure its serious.

so what your saying is the chances of us winning ten flags if the competition had two or 22 teams in it is the same?.

rightio

the lotto was prob a bad eg
seeing as you have to pick the correct numbers as well
but surely the CHANCE of winning a flag is greater if theres two teams and not 22

maybe i need to do a maths course again thru work or something

[plugger66]

Has GC made it harder for anyone likely to win the flag this year. No.

.

Not this year,but what about in 3 years time?

Comical

Yes but then there will be other bad sides. People keep arguing about this but the best side usually wins it. They dont all of a sudden say it isnt our turn because there are more sides in the AFL.

Why havent we won 10 flags. No one wants to answer this because it wrecks their arguement.

[plugger66]

unreal

how hard is it??
firstly i thought he was winding us up but im now sure its serious.

so what your saying is the chances of us winning ten flags if the competition had two or 22 teams in it is the same?.

rightio

the lotto was prob a bad eg
seeing as you have to pick the correct numbers as well
but surely the CHANCE of winning a flag is greater if theres two teams and not 22

maybe i need to do a maths course again thru work or something

I said that was stupid example just like your lotto one which I am still waiting an explanation.

Why havent we won about 10 flags. Why did Brisbane win 3 in a row. Why did Geelong win 2 out of 3. Why havent the Dogs, Dees and us not won a flag in over 45 years.

[jonesy]

Has GC made it harder for anyone likely to win the flag this year. No.

.

Not this year,but what about in 3 years time?

Comical

Yes but then there will be other bad sides. People keep arguing about this but the best side usually wins it. They dont all of a sudden say it isnt our turn because there are more sides in the AFL.

Why havent we won 10 flags. No one wants to answer this because it wrecks their arguement.

We haven't won 10 flags as were not better than 12,14 and 16 teams. So what hope have we got against 18...

Oh dear

[plugger66]

Has GC made it harder for anyone likely to win the flag this year. No.

.

Not this year,but what about in 3 years time?

Comical

Yes but then there will be other bad sides. People keep arguing about this but the best side usually wins it. They dont all of a sudden say it isnt our turn because there are more sides in the AFL.

Why havent we won 10 flags. No one wants to answer this because it wrecks their arguement.

We haven't won 10 flags as were not better than 12,14 and 16 teams. So what hope have we got against 18...

Oh dear

We were second best against 16 so why not best against 18. It makes no difference if you are best.

Why does Black Cavier win against 5 horses or 20. You know why because she is the best. If flags were worked by odds i would be worried but they dont. A few weeks ago people were saying lets build for next year and try and win it. I didnt hear anyone saying we may not win it becaise of the amount of sides but I did hear some saying we cant win it because we arent good enough.

[jonesy]

Thats just laughable in it's simplicity.

Of course if you are the best you win it,but it harder to be the best against 18 than it is 12.

If there were 12 sides in it in 97 we would of won it,there would of been no Crows.

Black caviar is a horse....it doesn't compete with 17 other clubs at a draft each year

[bigcarl]

Of course if you are the best you win it, but it harder to be the best against 18 than it is 12.

I think you've nailed it there Jonsey.

[matrix]

unreal

how hard is it??
firstly i thought he was winding us up but im now sure its serious.

so what your saying is the chances of us winning ten flags if the competition had two or 22 teams in it is the same?.

rightio

the lotto was prob a bad eg
seeing as you have to pick the correct numbers as well
but surely the CHANCE of winning a flag is greater if theres two teams and not 22

maybe i need to do a maths course again thru work or something

I said that was stupid example just like your lotto one which I am still waiting an explanation.

Why havent we won about 10 flags. Why did Brisbane win 3 in a row. Why did Geelong win 2 out of 3. Why havent the Dogs, Dees and us not won a flag in over 45 years.

the lotto one was explained
i said it was a bad eg

but seriously if you cant see that the CHANCE of winning is greater if theres two teams compared to if there was 22 then well...not much we can do about that.

[Leo.J]

Suprise suprise... Plugger defending the AFL.

3 questions.

1. Does the fixture favour wealthy sides like Collingwood?

2. Does this give them an off-field (financial) and on-field advantage?

3. Is this fair for the rest of the competition?

[bigcarl]

1. Does the fixture favour wealthy sides like Collingwood?

Yes. They seldom travel away from their own dungheap.

2. Does this give them an off-field (financial) and on-field advantage?

Absolutely. They get richer and others struggle to keep pace.

3. Is this fair for the rest of the competition?

No.

[plugger66]

Suprise suprise... Plugger defending the AFL.

3 questions.

1. Does the fixture favour wealthy sides like Collingwood?

2. Does this give them an off-field (financial) and on-field advantage?

3. Is this fair for the rest of the competition?

And surprise surprise you going against them. I am sorry I see the big picture and I am also sorry i want to keep all the clubs in the AFL. If we dont have a draw that favours big drawing games then we dont get the huge TV rights and thus clubs will fold, not may but will and at the moment we may be going ok but our history suggests we could be one of those sides that could go if sides were to go. Sorrry i dont want that to happen.

The fixture does favour the wealthy sides in making more money. It gives them an advantage but if they didnt have these fixtures the wealthy sides would still be wealthy but wouldnt have as much money. The poorer clubs would get more off the gate but much less off the AFL so they would be financially much worse off and may even fold.

[InkerSaint]

Suprise suprise... Plugger defending the AFL.

3 questions.

1. Does the fixture favour wealthy sides like Collingwood?

2. Does this give them an off-field (financial) and on-field advantage?

3. Is this fair for the rest of the competition?

Yes, yes, no, and maybe.

[Dr Spaceman]

From all reports a popular band.

Call me a cynic if you will but I just can’t see Westaway fitting in.

[Leo.J]

Thats rubbish Plugger.

These clubs need to be given the opportunity to create their own wealth, not just be fed benefits. And then as soon as the AFL decide to take the benefits away or demetriou retires then they'll fold. Your view is actually really short sighted, and pretty much word for word what the afl has been spruking.

Please explain why the afl cannot give these clubs a hand out plus give them an opportunity to create their own wealth?

Money isn't an issue, and its not like Collingwood are going to go broke if they don't play on Anzac day.

[Leo.J]

Btw plugger why don't you answer those questions?

[Johnny Member]

if theres two teams in the league you reckon they have the same chance of winning a flag if there was 22 teams in the league??


if yes, it would explain a lot around here

Are we talking about 2 teams or 22. Not a great example but no worse than your lotto one. Can please explain any logic in that all. How many flags have we won. One. How many years have we played. 114. How many sides have we played against. Between 4 and 17. Has GC made it harder for anyone likely to win the flag this year. No.

Why will not anyone answer why we havent got about 10 flags.

The 'how many flags we have won' thing isn't really relevant. The new rules have only been in place and had an influence for about 15 years. What happened prior to that has nothing to do with the scenario now.


For the record, I don't believe every club has a right to win the flag just because they exist. Nor do I believe they should be handed out on rotation each year just to keep everyone happy.

What should be the case though, is that the comp should be even.

Each club should have the same opportunity to have a run at the flag each year.
and currently, that is clearly not the case.
It's not even close.

[Johnny Member]

Of course if you are the best you win it, but it harder to be the best against 18 than it is 12.

I think you've nailed it there Jonsey.

I don't think it's been nailed.


If you travel more than other Vic teams, have less money to spend on footy than pother clubs due to not being given better exposure/gates from dodgy draws, if you play more games with 6 day breaks than other teams, etc. etc. etc. you need to do more than just be the best team.

Two teams of equal ability, are no longer equal when the scales are tipped in the favour of the other.

A team like North for example, probably realisitically need to be about 15-20% better football team than Collingwood in order to beat them in the race for the flag.

Being 15-20% better than a good team in this elite competition is unrealistic.

[Johnny Member]

I am sorry I see the big picture and I am also sorry i want to keep all the clubs in the AFL.

How did you feel about the AFL desperately trying to relocate North to the Gold Coast?

[Enrico_Misso]

Has GC made it harder for anyone likely to win the flag this year. No.

.

Not this year,but what about in 3 years time?

Comical

Yes but then there will be other bad sides. People keep arguing about this but the best side usually wins it. They dont all of a sudden say it isnt our turn because there are more sides in the AFL.

Why havent we won 10 flags. No one wants to answer this because it wrecks their arguement.

We haven't won 10 flags as were not better than 12,14 and 16 teams. So what hope have we got against 18...

Oh dear

Jonesy - your wasting your breath.
Some people just don't get numbers, probabilities, odds.

In the old days of the league distortions like lack of salary caps and player drafts as well as our succession of incompetent administrations and lack of solvency prevented us from being competitive.

Those days are pretty much gone (though fixturing is still corrupt).
So it is a more even playing field.
With 18 teams (once they are up and running) the odds are therefore 1 in 18 over a long period of time of winning the flag.
So a child born today might expect 4 or 5 premierships in their lifetime.
Whereas with a 12 team comp they might have expected 7 or 8.

That makes a heck of a difference.
But some just can't see it.

[goods]

The solution is to follow the NFL lead and equalize the gate.

The AFL can have their bent fixture with Anzac Day, Collingwood round etc etc as much as they want then.

The way the big clubs get bigger would be thru membership and merchandise and corporate growth.

EXACTLY - then you can spread the revenue and the AFL can still make bucket loads from TV rights.