Six to go?

Con Gorozidis · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:04pm

Assuming we turn over 6 players at years end.
Who do people think will go?

Gardi (retire)
Bakes (retire)
Heyne (in trouble)
McQualter (i have no idea what is contract says but could be in trouble)

ausfatcat · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:06pm

why are you assuming 6 players? (not having a dig just want to know your reasoning)

Con Gorozidis · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:08pm

ausfatcat wrote:why are you assuming 6 players? (not having a dig just want to know your reasoning)

Isnt there an AFL rule on this? Has to be 5 or 6 per year?

Dr Spaceman · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:09pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:
ausfatcat wrote:why are you assuming 6 players? (not having a dig just want to know your reasoning)
Isnt there an AFL rule on this? Has to be 5 or 6 per year?

Think it's 3 minimum.

goddardisgod · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:09pm

Gardiner (ret)
Blake (Ret)
Baker (ret)
Mini
Heyne
Cahill

Walsh and Archer promoted, Eddy and Gaertner delisted from rookie list.

4 picks in national draft and 3 in rookie, plus Heyne who I think is contracted.

Con Gorozidis · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:17pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Con Gorozidis wrote:
ausfatcat wrote:why are you assuming 6 players? (not having a dig just want to know your reasoning)
Isnt there an AFL rule on this? Has to be 5 or 6 per year?
Think it's 3 minimum.

OK. I thought it was 5 or 6 for some reason. Maybe it was years ago pre-Rookies or something.

Anyway. Thats why I said 6.

Con Gorozidis · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:17pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Con Gorozidis wrote:
ausfatcat wrote:why are you assuming 6 players? (not having a dig just want to know your reasoning)
Isnt there an AFL rule on this? Has to be 5 or 6 per year?
Think it's 3 minimum.

OK. I thought it was 5 or 6 for some reason. Maybe it was years ago pre-Rookies or something.

Anyway. Thats why I said 6.

Con Gorozidis · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:17pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Con Gorozidis wrote:
ausfatcat wrote:why are you assuming 6 players? (not having a dig just want to know your reasoning)
Isnt there an AFL rule on this? Has to be 5 or 6 per year?
Think it's 3 minimum.

OK. I thought it was 5 or 6 for some reason. Maybe it was years ago pre-Rookies or something.

Anyway. Thats why I said 6.

saintspremiers · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:22pm

My guess is minimum 8 gone.

Bakes Blake Gardy Mini Archer Cahill all gone plus 2 more.

Easy to see 8 go without trying.

Depends a lot on Pelchen - we don't know his spin on things.

plugger66 · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:22pm

goddardisgod wrote:Gardiner (ret)
Blake (Ret)
Baker (ret)
Mini
Heyne
Cahill

Walsh and Archer promoted, Eddy and Gaertner delisted from rookie list.

4 picks in national draft and 3 in rookie, plus Heyne who I think is contracted.

Surely Archer should be delisted not upgraded. Heyne does have a contract so he will at least be a rookie. Cahill will go unless a miracle occurs. Mini is in trouble, Eddy will go and MG will retire. Bakes and Blake may retire. Walsh may even be let go or want to go. Will Johnson may be in trouble as well as could be Smith but he probably has a year to go on his contract.

Con Gorozidis · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:30pm

Where do we get 8 new players from?

Sounds like Curren and Ferguson are likely to be upgraded or at very least retained.

Pelchen will be aggressive you would think.

bobmurray · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:44pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:Where do we get 8 new players from?

Pelchen will be aggressive you would think.

They can be as aggressive as they like but in a shallow draft why would they fall over themselves in their eagerness to load up with more GOP's....

That's why it's going to be very very interesting watching what they do...

the rating of the draft may not be all that accurate anyway....there may be more quality than we are being led to believe.

bobmurray · Thu 28 Jul 2011 10:53pm

Con Gorozidis wrote:Where do we get 8 new players from?

Pelchen will be aggressive you would think.

They can be as aggressive as they like but in a shallow draft why would they fall over themselves in their eagerness to load up with more GOP's....

That's why it's going to be very very interesting watching what they do...

the rating of the draft may not be all that accurate anyway....there may be more quality than we are being led to believe.

skeptic · Post: # 1112225Post **skeptic** » Thu 28 Jul 2011 11:21pm

There is no minimum to delist...

you just need to be able to recruit 3 players from the national draft

I think we'll have a little bit of turn over... players with poor disposal will be in trouble

I reckon Gilbert will be traded somewhere... we have an abundance of HBF

saintsRrising · Fri 29 Jul 2011 8:00am

You only pick up if it is better than waht you have...

I expect it to be a mix of a existing player/s and kids.

Both are constrained by what is available....

The further is issue is what we are chasing.

While Pelchen is new...as last year we chased footskills and pace...and the Hawks have been likewise fora while I see our 2011 draft strategy continuing.

Good footksills and pace from the kids......witha startegic pick or two (or trade) of a mature player/ that immediatedly addresses a particular need.

For 2012 we already have Hayes, Ledger and Cripps to be pushing into our 22.

Siposs looks a natural to be groomed asa forward.

So apart from more mids with good footskills the two we seem to need is another ruck anda young key forward.

I still have not given up on Stanley. He has hada season from hell...but he still has the potential to make it.

InkerSaint · Fri 29 Jul 2011 8:40am

If we had 3 retirements, 3 delistings, and 2 rookie upgrades, that would give us 4 live picks in the AFL draft. If it is as shallow as is being reported that's still one pick too many.

Still not convinced Pelchen's role is recruiting decision-maker. A lot of people seem to assume that is his role because he had that responsibility at Hawthorn. Whoever gets along to the Building For The Future lunch will be able to tell us more but my guess is that Pelchen and Lyon are stakeholders. None of these decisions would be made by a single person anyway.

saintspremiers · Fri 29 Jul 2011 9:07am

InkerSaint wrote:If we had 3 retirements, 3 delistings, and 2 rookie upgrades, that would give us 4 live picks in the AFL draft. If it is as shallow as is being reported that's still one pick too many.

Still not convinced Pelchen's role is recruiting decision-maker. A lot of people seem to assume that is his role because he had that responsibility at Hawthorn. Whoever gets along to the Building For The Future lunch will be able to tell us more but my guess is that Pelchen and Lyon are stakeholders. None of these decisions would be made by a single person anyway.

If we had re-recruited GT he could've done all of the above, and for less money (until we sack him. Again!).

InkerSaint · Fri 29 Jul 2011 9:18am

saintspremiers wrote:
InkerSaint wrote:If we had 3 retirements, 3 delistings, and 2 rookie upgrades, that would give us 4 live picks in the AFL draft. If it is as shallow as is being reported that's still one pick too many.

Still not convinced Pelchen's role is recruiting decision-maker. A lot of people seem to assume that is his role because he had that responsibility at Hawthorn. Whoever gets along to the Building For The Future lunch will be able to tell us more but my guess is that Pelchen and Lyon are stakeholders. None of these decisions would be made by a single person anyway.
If we had re-recruited GT he could've done all of the above, and for less money (until we sack him. Again!).

How's your time capsule going? Are we ready to bring it back yet? You know, the one about the last draftees you inferred were a collection of duds.

ThePunter · Post: # 1112273Post **ThePunter** » Fri 29 Jul 2011 9:37am

There would be a chance we would elevate a couple of rookies, wouldn't we? Walsh, Archer, Eddy?

I would think this is my current assessment:

Gram - was in trouble, now probably safe
Siposs - safe
Steven - safe
Jones - safe
McEvoy - safe
Dawson - safe
Hayes - safe
Clarke - probably safe, but would want to keep playing well in seniors
Crocker - safe
Baker - wants one more year, but probably gone
Montagna - safe
Riewoldt - safe
Schneider - safe
Geary - probably safe
Gardiner - gone
Gamble - safe
Winmar - safe
Goddard - safe
Gilbert - safe
Armitage - safe
Heyne - in trouble
Ray - safe
Koschitzke - probably safe
Dempster - safe
Fisher - safe
Dal Santo - safe
Blake - probably gone
Stanley - probably safe
Lynch - safe
Peake - safe
Simpkin - safe
McQualter - in trouble
Gwilt - safe
Polo - probably safe
Cripps - safe
Ledger - safe
Johnson - lineball
Smith - lineball
Milne - safe

InkerSaint · Fri 29 Jul 2011 9:47am

ThePunter wrote:There would be a chance we would elevate a couple of rookies, wouldn't we? Walsh, Archer, Eddy?

Walsh is clearly on the cusp, but my next vote would go to Curren - going on reports he has standout disposal and is one of the hardest trainers at the club.

Stanley - probably safe

Stanley is rated by Ross but you forgot Cahill - probably in trouble. See here for comments from Ross about the third year players.

http://www.saintsational.com/forum/view ... hp?t=70986

bergholt · Post: # 1112282Post **bergholt** » Fri 29 Jul 2011 9:54am

ThePunter wrote:There would be a chance we would elevate a couple of rookies, wouldn't we? Walsh, Archer, Eddy?

surely not eddy, and archer hasn't been amazing. there'd be no reason to promote any rookie unless you thought they were going to play ten games. if they're only going to play a couple then may as well keep them on the rookie list. (unless you have to promote walsh, say, to keep him happy.)

i'd say bakes and blake may be asked to retire, but if that's only going to give you pick 80+ in a weak draft then they may as well hang around and give us some insurance. there are no absolutes in this process, it's about the marginal benefit of each decision.

i wouldn't be surprised if there were only a few changes, given the state of this draft:

gardiner retired
cahill gone
heyne downgraded
johnson downgraded
walsh rookie upgraded
gaertner rookie gone
eddy rookie gone

= 3 national draft picks, 1 rookie draft pick

rexy · Post: # 1112287Post **rexy** » Fri 29 Jul 2011 10:00am

Thought Walsh was on the senior list????

Think Blake and Gardiner will def. retire and Bakes probably!
Mini Heyne and possibly Geary will be delisted?
Smith and Cahill? Have they had enough time to show their up to it? not sure!

bergholt · Post: # 1112290Post **bergholt** » Fri 29 Jul 2011 10:17am

rexy wrote:Thought Walsh was on the senior list????

temporarily promoted for part of this season, but that doesn't stick until next year's list - he needs to be officially promoted for that.

St Chris · Post: # 1112296Post **St Chris** » Fri 29 Jul 2011 10:32am

I assuming that when the media say the draft crop is a bit thin this year, they're talking about 17-18 year olds, TAC cup type players??

Probably a good time to be sniffing around some quality "mature age" recruits, given the success other clubs have had in recent years. Look at guys who are 22-23, who have good skills and a good attitude. This probably means they are a "outside" players, but I think RL has a reasonable record in "teaching hardness".

I don't think many key-position players will disappear this year. RL said publicly that we'd loaded up on talls before the compromised drafts, and we would pick mids while GC and GWS were taking the best kids. No point delisting Archer, Cahill, Johnson etc and picking 6 mids in the draft.

So, Eddy and Mini are in strife. Their skill level, particularly by foot, are not up to AFL standard anymore. Polo could be in trouble, with Hayes coming back, and Ledger another pre-season stronger.

I honestly think Walsh will go home. Just a hunch. It has been dissapointing that an opportunity at senior level hasn't come, and running into the finals, we wont be experimenting now. 2 years away from home have led to 1 and a half NAB cup games.

Blake, Gardiner and Baker should all retire.

rexy · Post: # 1112302Post **rexy** » Fri 29 Jul 2011 10:47am

Eddy is not on the senior list!

Think Polo is safe for another year, has shown enough IMO.