You do the math?

[InkerSaint]

It's a month on and I'm still thinking about that article Paul Roos wrote for the H-S, "You Do The Math".

There was some talk in September about how Champion Data will be introducing "pressure" statistics next year, but none of it concerned the figures scrutinised by Roos.

Basically put - I don't think anyone is doing the math. Or at least, not publishing it.

In the first quarter I counted at least 10 turnovers from Saints players under little or no pressure, in this order: Adam Schneider, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Gilbert, Nick Dal Santo, Schneider, James Gwilt, Gwilt again, Lenny Hayes, Riewoldt and Gilbert.

After the Saints had been pressing for much of the second quarter, Brett Peake could have executed a basic handball to a teammate in the corridor, but he chose to kick wide and the ball bounced straight to Darren Jolly who kicked a simple drop punt to Brent Macaffer for Collingwood's fifth goal.

The Saints had their hands on the ball for each of Collingwood's first three goals in the third quarter.

Zac Dawson coughed up a reckless handball 15m out from goal straight to Chris Dawes for their first.

Hayes went third man up at a defensive stoppage and hit the ball straight down Sharrod Wellingham's throat for the second, and, finally, Farren Ray kicked the ball out of defence to Harry O'Brien's advantage.

Peake missed a tackle and ultimately the result was a Dane Swan crumbing goal to make it nine goals to one, and game over.

We bother to talk about tackles laid, but don't bother to count the tackles that were missed.

We count possessions but not turnovers. Why not?

Are these figures unimportant? If the modern game continues to focus on systematic zoning, tackling and pressure, I would suggest not.

Who are the heroes and villains of these uncounted stats?

[Con Gorozidis]

It's a month on and I'm still thinking about that article Paul Roos wrote for the H-S, "You Do The Math".

There was some talk in September about how Champion Data will be introducing "pressure" statistics next year, but none of it concerned the figures scrutinised by Roos.

Basically put - I don't think anyone is doing the math. Or at least, not publishing it.

In the first quarter I counted at least 10 turnovers from Saints players under little or no pressure, in this order: Adam Schneider, Nick Riewoldt, Sam Gilbert, Nick Dal Santo, Schneider, James Gwilt, Gwilt again, Lenny Hayes, Riewoldt and Gilbert.

After the Saints had been pressing for much of the second quarter, Brett Peake could have executed a basic handball to a teammate in the corridor, but he chose to kick wide and the ball bounced straight to Darren Jolly who kicked a simple drop punt to Brent Macaffer for Collingwood's fifth goal.

The Saints had their hands on the ball for each of Collingwood's first three goals in the third quarter.

Zac Dawson coughed up a reckless handball 15m out from goal straight to Chris Dawes for their first.

Hayes went third man up at a defensive stoppage and hit the ball straight down Sharrod Wellingham's throat for the second, and, finally, Farren Ray kicked the ball out of defence to Harry O'Brien's advantage.

Peake missed a tackle and ultimately the result was a Dane Swan crumbing goal to make it nine goals to one, and game over.

We bother to talk about tackles laid, but don't bother to count the tackles that were missed.

We count possessions but not turnovers. Why not?

Are these figures unimportant? If the modern game continues to focus on systematic zoning, tackling and pressure, I would suggest not.

Who are the heroes and villains of these uncounted stats?

all fair points inkersaint. i like where u are heading. can u go a little further?

[SaintPav]

You don't always need to look at stats. Just watch the tape. A certain someone made some very stupid mistakes in the last quarter of the the drawn GF.

He allowed filth captain to take an uncontested mark and pump it into their forawrd line resulting in a goal. He then gave away a stupid free to Heath Shaw when we had it in our forward line in the dying stages of the game. DUMB, DUMB, DUMB football. It may have cost us a flag.

[Skildir]

Hate to be a pedant but can name of this thread be changed to 'You do the maths'?

[shmic_s]

It would definitely be interesting to see turnover and missed tackle stats from games.
It is not always going to truly reflect a players effectiveness, as players who take the game on more and try to make things happen are usually going to turn the ball over more than one that always takes the safe option.
I would think clubs do record these stats for the coaches.

[Pwoit]

Hate to be a pedant but can name of this thread be changed to 'You do the maths'?

2nd that...

Another word that gets used and pisses me off.

Mathematics is what I was taught in school and therefore the shortened term is Maths

Mathematics is a plural form word so when referring to it shortened it's Maths.

[kosifantutti23]

Hate to be a pedant but can name of this thread be changed to 'You do the maths'?

2nd that...

Another word that gets used and pisses me off.

Mathematics is what I was taught in school and therefore the shortened term is Maths

Mathematics is a plural form word so when referring to it shortened it's Maths.

My daughter does Economics but it is often referred to as Econ never Econs.

And once you start saying Math, you will never go back.

[Moods]

We count possessions but not turnovers. Why not?

Are these figures unimportant? If the modern game continues to focus on systematic zoning, tackling and pressure, I would suggest not.

Who are the heroes and villains of these uncounted stats?

Turnovers definitely are counted. So is effective and ineffective kicks. Anyone who plays supercoach knows that.

[saint66au]

Hate to be a pedant but can name of this thread be changed to 'You do the maths'?

2nd that...

Another word that gets used and pisses me off.

Mathematics is what I was taught in school and therefore the shortened term is Maths

Mathematics is a plural form word so when referring to it shortened it's Maths.

My daughter does Economics but it is often referred to as Econ never Econs.

And once you start saying Math, you will never go back.

..beacuse its the American way of saying it

A few years ago I was in Hobart among a group of American tourists off a cruise liner. As they wandered the Botanical Gardens, every time they said "erb" instead of "Herb" I wanted to punch one of them in the face lol

[Mr Magic]

Hate to be a pedant but can name of this thread be changed to 'You do the maths'?

2nd that...

Another word that gets used and pisses me off.

Mathematics is what I was taught in school and therefore the shortened term is Maths

Mathematics is a plural form word so when referring to it shortened it's Maths.

My daughter does Economics but it is often referred to as Econ never Econs.

And once you start saying Math, you will never go back.

..beacuse its the American way of saying it

A few years ago I was in Hobart among a group of American tourists off a cruise liner. As they wandered the Botanical Gardens, every time they said "erb" instead of "Herb" I wanted to punch one of them in the face lol

They seem to get the message when you offer to take
erb,
oward
and arry
back to their otel.

[InkerSaint]

Math or maths, both are a colloqial shortening of "mathematics" which in itself is expressed in the singular eg. "Maths is a basic skill" not "Maths are basic skills". And since I've always heard the expression as "you do the math" and that is apparently how Paul Roos has also heard it as that's what his article is titled, "math" it is.

Anyway...

Pro-Stats measures Attempted and Effective Tackles, and presents the total with an effectiveness percentage. I'm fairly certain I've seen something similar by way of a Champion Data report.

http://www.prowess.com.au/ReportsCart/s ... tchRPT.pdf

But we are given no idea of the impact of these missed tackles or turnovers. What would make the stat significant is whether or not the event resulted in a goal against.

What's a worse turnover, one in the forward line or one in defence? They're arguably equally bad, as one is a missed opportunity to score while the other is an opportunity given to the opposition. So where in the field it occurs is also significant.

I wouldn't mind betting that we have more turnovers in the backline than in the forward line. Is this a concern? Against a team that has a large focus on forward pressure, I would say absolutely.

These stats, exposed, would tell us a lot more about our team makeup, and how we match up against each opponent. Have a look at the names above - they are more often the heroes than the villains in discussions on this forum. Which, at the end of the day, exposes Roos' analysis as a bit of a beat-up.

At the end of the day, the best defensive team for two years running was beaten for the flag by the team with the highest inside-50 count, and the second-best defense.
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_l ... st=SE&sb=a

Does defence win premierships? Not by itself. Leigh Matthews' famous axiom no longer holds true - if it ever did.

Where are we falling down - goalkicking, or supply? I'd suggest, at 11th on the ladder for inside-50s this year, that supply is the problem.
http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/tea ... s=TA&sr=13

Is it personnel or gameplan? Let's hope it is the latter. That, at least, can be replaced in the space of a pre-season.

It's all about healthy and informed debate - something we could always do with more of.

[ChicagoSaint]

What is your opinion Inker on the prospect of an Effective Spoil being registered as a Hitout?

[ace]

Hate to be a pedant but can name of this thread be changed to 'You do the maths'?

2nd that...

Another word that gets used and pisses me off.

Mathematics is what I was taught in school and therefore the shortened term is Maths

Mathematics is a plural form word so when referring to it shortened it's Maths.

My daughter does Economics but it is often referred to as Econ never Econs.

And once you start saying Math, you will never go back.

Once you start saying Math you are half American. You will need to use an elvator instead of a lift to get to the top floor.

[ChicagoSaint]

What is your opinion Inker on the prospect of an Effective Spoil being registered as a Hitout?

or even a spoil of any kind registered as a statistic?

[InkerSaint]

What is your opinion Inker on the prospect of an Effective Spoil being registered as a Hitout?

or even a spoil of any kind registered as a statistic?

It would probably get people off Dawson's back for a start.

I'm not sure about that one - it happens specifically in a contested situation, almost always in defence, and employed by two or three players at most.

But that's the thing - maybe I'm missing something about that action and the potential impact it has on the game that isn't already measured by other statistics - such as inside-50s versus goals per inside 50... what do you think, CS?

Once you start saying Math you are half American. You will need to use an elvator instead of a lift to get to the top floor.

Considering that the expression "you do the math" is an Americanism it should come as no surprise. As for being "half American", that describes Australian culture in a nutshell!

[ChicagoSaint]

What is your opinion Inker on the prospect of an Effective Spoil being registered as a Hitout?

or even a spoil of any kind registered as a statistic?

It would probably get people off Dawson's back for a start.

I'm not sure about that one - it happens specifically in a contested situation, almost always in defence, and employed by two or three players at most.

But that's the thing - maybe I'm missing something about that action and the potential impact it has on the game that isn't already measured by other statistics - such as inside-50s versus goals per inside 50... what do you think, CS?

I think spoils should be measured statistically.
an effective spoil is as good as a turnover in my view.
a spoil to advantage, a stoppage spoil and/or an spoil error should be statistically applied to all players and not just defenders.
we measure hit outs to advantage, why not spoil to advantage?
it's first hands to the footy in a contest, why should all the glory go to ablett for 415 possessions in a game?

tackling is the other one that gives me the jimmy brits, why should pendlebury be given 315 tackles in a game when he has hardly touched anyone all day.
then you hear some rabid pie go - scott pendlebury 28 tackles!!
to my mind a tackle is a stat when the umpire awards you a free and not before.
please dont get me started on what a tackle is though.
in the laws of the game a tackle is simply a hold, in the real world a tackle is stopping and dropping.

[InkerSaint]

There have to be three types of spoils measured as you suggest. You make a fair point with the comparison to hitouts.

I agree on tackles, an effective tackle is one that results in a holding the ball free, an incorrect disposal free, or a turnover. Anything else is a missed or bungled opportunity. Both should be measured, and both should be statistically separate.

An effective tackle that results in a possession chain leading to a goal is more significant than one that leads to a contest, stoppage, or turnover. It is effectively a goal assist. Ditto the other way for a missed or ineffective tackle.

[ChicagoSaint]

I agree on tackles, an effective tackle is one that results in a holding the ball free, an incorrect disposal free, or a turnover. Anything else is a missed or bungled opportunity. Both should be measured, and both should be statistically separate.

An effective tackle that results in a possession chain leading to a goal is more significant than one that leads to a contest, stoppage, or turnover. It is effectively a goal assist. Ditto the other way for a missed or ineffective tackle.

holding the ball free tackle yes incorrect disposal free tackle yes turnover tackle no unless turnover is holding the ball free tackle or incorrect disposal free tackle.

'pendles, 34 tackles to half time - fcuk me! people said the defensive side to his game wasn't there. i reckon he's the best pressure player in the game. he'll win the brownlow this year for sure!!'

Scott Pendlebury 25d 15k 10h 5m 2ff 1fa (34t? no, maximum of two as he has only been given 2ff)
FFS!
it sh1ts me.
then you get ppl like JPBFC come on here and try to tell me that i dont know what i'm talking about when it comes to tackling i mean FFS read the laws of the game JPBFC you idiot! you're supposed to know how to play the bloody game why when pendles has 2FF does he have 34 next to his name in the tackles column?

[ThePunter]

I would suggest that a tackle that forces a stoppage is an effective tackle, as it gives the tackling team a 50/50 opportunity to win the ball.

[ChicagoSaint]

I would suggest that a tackle that forces a stoppage is an effective tackle, as it gives the tackling team a 50/50 opportunity to win the ball.

and i'd disagree with you based on the laws of the game

[InkerSaint]

holding the ball free tackle yes incorrect disposal free tackle yes turnover tackle no unless turnover is holding the ball free tackle or incorrect disposal free tackle.

We all know a free isn't paid every time a player drops the ball as a result of a tackle, if that then results in the tackler or a teammate of the tackler taking possession I'd argue that it's an effective tackle whether a free is paid or not.

[Life Long Saint]

and i'd disagree with you based on the laws of the game

Here we go again!

What do the laws of the game have to do with keeping statistics?

Where is the law that relates to a player moving the ball inside the 50m arc?
Where is the law that covers how much ground a player covers?
Where is the law that governs effective disposals?

[jays]

this is true

[spert]

People who do "math" also go to the "bathroom" to have piss..I'm a toilet man myself. And yes.. we coughed up the ball way too many times in the GFs

[ChicagoSaint]

weak as piss JPBFC