STOLEN - We have lost two premierships !!!

[3rd generation saint]

Yes they should make money, so why didn't they go for a guaranteed viable money maker like tassie, instead of a highly speculative, let's hope it works financial black hole that will be GWS.
Actually always thought Sydney would eventually work, but I believe Sydney is a one team town.
GWS could very well cause the downfall of an AFL club as the AFL will poor money into this club at the expense of others.
Gold Coast will work because it has had a strong domestic comp for years and has plenty of ex pat Victorians to make it viable.
The AFL comments that second team in Sydney will work will be as famous as the guy from Decca records who told Brian Epstein his band his good but he believed that Guitar bands we're going out of style.

[plugger66]

Yes they should make money, so why didn't they go for a guaranteed viable money maker like tassie, instead of a highly speculative, let's hope it works financial black hole that will be GWS.
Actually always thought Sydney would eventually work, but I believe Sydney is a one team town.
GWS could very well cause the downfall of an AFL club as the AFL will poor money into this club at the expense of others.
Gold Coast will work because it has had a strong domestic comp for years and has plenty of ex pat Victorians to make it viable.
The AFL comments that second team in Sydney will work will be as famous as the guy from Decca records who told Brian Epstein his band his good but he believed that Guitar bands we're going out of style.

What does Tassie give us. No extra players because they already play the game, no extra sponsorship and no extra TV money where as if the Sydney side eventually is successful they will give us all positives to those issues. maybe the AFL dont just think of 5 years down the track like supporters do.

[bigcarl]

Let me try to really dumb it down for you.

If you've got 72 chicken nuggets.
And 12 kids to feed.

They each should get 6 nuggets.
Maybe a couple cheat and steal or trick to get more than their share.

Then 6 more kids turn up.
So now on average they will only get 4 nuggets each.
(That's 72/18 = 4 if I've lost you).

Sure there will still be ones that trick their way to more.
And some that are favourite children that the chef will try and look after.

But the general principle is
- that there are now more kids,
- we aren't a favoured child.

Why would you expect us to get more nuggets?

I understand now. You make a good point.

[plugger66]

Let me try to really dumb it down for you.

If you've got 72 chicken nuggets.
And 12 kids to feed.

They each should get 6 nuggets.
Maybe a couple cheat and steal or trick to get more than their share.

Then 6 more kids turn up.
So now on average they will only get 4 nuggets each.
(That's 72/18 = 4 if I've lost you).

Sure there will still be ones that trick their way to more.
And some that are favourite children that the chef will try and look after.

But the general principle is
- that there are now more kids,
- we aren't a favoured child.

Why would you expect us to get more nuggets?

I understand now. You make a good point.

Do you understand one flag in 114 years? it seems chicken nuggets interests you more than the real world. You should get out there sometime.

[Enrico_Misso]

Some advice for you Plugger66

DO NOT TAKE UP POKER

You have no concept of odds.
You will lose everything.

[plugger66]

Some advice for you Plugger66

DO NOT TAKE UP POKER

You have no concept of odds.
You will lose everything.

I actually play every week with mates. Do ok too but that is about odds. Winning flags is about how good you are. You fail to grasp that there isnt 114 sides in the AFL or that Geelong and Brisbane have gone over you said quota or that after one flag in 114 years one in the next 18 under your system would be good anyway. You are living in a maths fantasy land.

[Enrico_Misso]

Some advice for you Plugger66

DO NOT TAKE UP POKER

You have no concept of odds.
You will lose everything.

I actually play every week with mates. Do ok too but that is about odds. Winning flags is about how good you are. You fail to grasp that there isnt 114 sides in the AFL or that Geelong and Brisbane have gone over you said quota or that after one flag in 114 years one in the next 18 under your system would be good anyway. You are living in a maths fantasy land.

Reread the whole thread - SL O W L Y
We haven't won our share of premierships in the last 114 years because it hasn't been an even playing field.

And going forward it continues to be an uneven playing field.

And adding extra clubs - (try to THINK about this - reread the chicken nugget post) actually further reduces our chances.

Did you follow that?

[plugger66]

Some advice for you Plugger66

DO NOT TAKE UP POKER

You have no concept of odds.
You will lose everything.

I actually play every week with mates. Do ok too but that is about odds. Winning flags is about how good you are. You fail to grasp that there isnt 114 sides in the AFL or that Geelong and Brisbane have gone over you said quota or that after one flag in 114 years one in the next 18 under your system would be good anyway. You are living in a maths fantasy land.

Reread the whole thread - SL O W L Y
We haven't won our share of premierships in the last 114 years because it hasn't been an even playing field.

And going forward it continues to be an uneven playing field.

And adding extra clubs - (try to THINK about this - reread the chicken nugget post) actually further reduces our chances.

Did you follow that?

No i dont because that is about maths. Why has our most successful period apart from 1966 been when there has been sisxteen sides? it is because we are a top side. It doesnt matter how many sides there are if you are the best. Why have Geelong and Brisbane gone over your quota? because unlike your maths theory, footy isnt decided by that.

If your silly theory is right can I ask you what is wrong with winning only won flag in the next 18 years as opposed to one in 114 years?

[rexy]

Current life expectancy in Australia is 81.4 years.
(Soon to be) 18 clubs.
Even playing field (if only).
Therefore, the average expected number of premierships in a lifetime = 81.4/18 = 4.5

But if you assume that for the first 8-10 years of your life the benefit of a premiership would be lost on you and for the final few years you are also too demented/frail/incontinent etc, then you probably only have a window to enjoy a premiership win of say 70 years.
So 70/18 = 3.9 premierships.

So that is just FOUR premierships per club in a lifetime.
That of course is the prospect for our young supporters, for older supporters it is EVEN LESS !!!!

And I'm conveniently ignoring the fact that the AFL will do EVERYTHING in it's power to ensure that their new bastard love child clubs get up, and continue to prosper in order to grow their precious new "markets". And whilst they give them favourable treatment it just makes it even harder for us.

So the young followers of Melbourne based clubs will be doing well to see three premierships in their lifetime.

In the old days of 12 teams the equivalent expectation would be
70/12 = 5.8 premierships.

So the push to nationalise by creating (as opposed to relocating) new clubs will cost our kids almost two premierships.
Does that sit comfortably?

Its meant for enjoyment and entertainment mate, dont take that away from yourself by investing so much time in to conspiracy theories and long winded arguments relating to why the AFL is evil?

Just enjoy the journey.

Enjoy being a passionate football and saints supporter and watching and analysing the game for what it is.

The most exciting game on earth to watch IMO and its right on our doorstep.

I love it, and I love supporting a club thats in the thick of it.

[Enrico_Misso]

Its meant for enjoyment and entertainment mate, dont take that away from yourself by investing so much time in to conspiracy theories and long winded arguments relating to why the AFL is evil?

Just enjoy the journey.

Enjoy being a passionate football and saints supporter and watching and analysing the game for what it is.

The most exciting game on earth to watch IMO and its right on our doorstep.

I love it, and I love supporting a club thats in the thick of it.

I don't want to JUST enjoy the journey.
I actually want to see us win a PREMIERSHIP.

I'm on the wrong side of 50.
And I'm beginning to feel that if this bunch can't snag one in the next couple of years before Lenny, BJ and Roo start to fade, then I can't see where our next chance will come from.

18 clubs, many of them (but not us) being looked after.
It justs keeps getting harder and the odds keep dropping.
And it seems like there are a lot of dumb people out there who just can see that!
Maybe it's blind optimism, or maybe it's stupidity?

[rexy]

Its meant for enjoyment and entertainment mate, dont take that away from yourself by investing so much time in to conspiracy theories and long winded arguments relating to why the AFL is evil?

Just enjoy the journey.

Enjoy being a passionate football and saints supporter and watching and analysing the game for what it is.

The most exciting game on earth to watch IMO and its right on our doorstep.

I love it, and I love supporting a club thats in the thick of it.

I don't want to JUST enjoy the journey.
I actually want to see us win a PREMIERSHIP.

I'm on the wrong side of 50.
And I'm beginning to feel that if this bunch can't snag one in the next couple of years before Lenny, BJ and Roo start to fade, then I can't see where our next chance will come from.

18 clubs, many of them (but not us) being looked after.
It justs keeps getting harder and the odds keep dropping.
And it seems like there are a lot of dumb people out there who just can see that!
Maybe it's blind optimism, or maybe it's stupidity?

Maybe you are just looking for reasons outside the truth.

Maybe it just chance, the bounce of the ball, how players feel on a day.

Ask yourself how many geelong supporters felt the same way in about 96?

Ask yourself if old South Melbourne supporters felt the same way until a couple of years back?

The rules are the same for every club, the rules of the game I mean. Its what happens on the field that wins you flags.

The AFL has installed things to equalise the competiton for new clubs and growing markets and yes to line its and in turn the clubs pockets, but lets be honest if they hadnt taken this course 20 odd years a go we would possibly not even exist. The salary cap, the draft and the better distribution of funds could be the reason for our existance today.

Dont think I am stupid and I dont know a single true Saints supporter over 15 who is blindly optimistic.

[35...LEGEND]

Add it up any way you like, select the facts that suit your argument, leave out those that don't (like our draft picks) BUT the result is we blew two opportunities. Our fault, our need to fix it....and bleeding quickly.

I am already worried I may not see a flag in my lifetime. Last two years I thought I would.

Me too.

Be nice to experience the feeling..... ....................just once...............................so nice I reck'n.

2011 can't come quick enough.

[saintspremiers]

This thread delivers!

Well done EM.

You have once again shown up plugger as the biggest AFL lacky on this site.

Why the F*** can't the AFL have a "fair" draw over, say, a 5 year period, so everyone plays each other the same number of times?

Surely it wouldn't cause clubs to go the wall, yes, it may cost a few dollars, but at least it would be fair!

[sunsaint]

the best team wins GF's
you dont take it in turns like in kindergarten
the kiddies that didnt get enough chicken nuggets deserve to starve, the AFL does enough to prop up the slow/weak ones giving them half of their nuggets anyway.
And if you only play poker by the numbers, I will play you any day EM
Some extra cash for chrissy will come in handy

[plugger66]

This thread delivers!

Well done EM.

You have once again shown up plugger as the biggest AFL lacky on this site.

Why the F*** can't the AFL have a "fair" draw over, say, a 5 year period, so everyone plays each other the same number of times?

Surely it wouldn't cause clubs to go the wall, yes, it may cost a few dollars, but at least it would be fair!

No what he has shown that you have joined my list of people with little idea about footy. Maybe you can go to EM house and have a maths lesson. Will not help your footy knowledge but no help your common sense.

[saint66au]

Current life expectancy in Australia is 81.4 years.
(Soon to be) 18 clubs.
Even playing field (if only).
Therefore, the average expected number of premierships in a lifetime = 81.4/18 = 4.5

But if you assume that for the first 8-10 years of your life the benefit of a premiership would be lost on you and for the final few years you are also too demented/frail/incontinent etc, then you probably only have a window to enjoy a premiership win of say 70 years.
So 70/18 = 3.9 premierships.

So that is just FOUR premierships per club in a lifetime.
That of course is the prospect for our young supporters, for older supporters it is EVEN LESS !!!!

And I'm conveniently ignoring the fact that the AFL will do EVERYTHING in it's power to ensure that their new bastard love child clubs get up, and continue to prosper in order to grow their precious new "markets". And whilst they give them favourable treatment it just makes it even harder for us.

So the young followers of Melbourne based clubs will be doing well to see three premierships in their lifetime.

In the old days of 12 teams the equivalent expectation would be
70/12 = 5.8 premierships.

So the push to nationalise by creating (as opposed to relocating) new clubs will cost our kids almost two premierships.
Does that sit comfortably?

Its meant for enjoyment and entertainment mate, dont take that away from yourself by investing so much time in to conspiracy theories and long winded arguments relating to why the AFL is evil?

Just enjoy the journey.

Enjoy being a passionate football and saints supporter and watching and analysing the game for what it is.

The most exciting game on earth to watch IMO and its right on our doorstep.

I love it, and I love supporting a club thats in the thick of it.

Well said rexy..well said

[Enrico_Misso]

the kiddies that didnt get enough chicken nuggets deserve to starve

the AFL does enough to prop up the slow/weak ones giving them half of their nuggets anyway.
And if you only play poker by the numbers, I will play you any day EM
Some extra cash for chrissy will come in handy

Not sure about playing you sunsaint,
but tugger66 would be ripe for plucking as he thinks the same odds apply to the full deck (18 cards) as did the short deck (12 cards).

[Dr Spaceman]

That's it; I've had enough!

I too want to see a flag in my lifetime.

Andrew Demetriou OUT

Colonel Sanders IN

I WANT MY SHARE OF CHICKEN NUGGETS!!!

[plugger66]

the kiddies that didnt get enough chicken nuggets deserve to starve

the AFL does enough to prop up the slow/weak ones giving them half of their nuggets anyway.
And if you only play poker by the numbers, I will play you any day EM
Some extra cash for chrissy will come in handy

Not sure about playing you sunsaint,
but tugger66 would be ripe for plucking as he thinks the same odds apply to the full deck (18 cards) as did the short deck (12 cards).

It actually sounds like you think the Ace is the same as the 2. When can we play cards and how much money do you have because you will lose it all. Please inform your family you will be poor soon.

[bozza1980]

It's got nothing to do with us!!!!, it;s got everything to do with every team in the competition.
My draw may see us get an absolute shocker one year, but that's the luck of the draw!!!!!
Oh and I'm sure West Coast, Adelaide etc would survive if they only played each other once.
In my opinion, GWS is a disaster waiting to happen, the AFL in it's blindness for money has just made what will become one of the greatest corporate blunders 21st century.
They could have put a team in Tassie, that virtually guaranteed of 30 to 40,000 members, had major corporate backing and would attract 15 to 35,000 people a week to a game and would be profitable from day 1.
No we haven't lost a team since 1996 (14 years).
But we may lose one due to GWS.

I don't understand the absolute bullishness about the success of a Tasmanian team. For 10 years they have had 2-4 AFL games and in the biggest year averaged 17528 per game.

For 40,000 members they would require 8% of all Tasmanians to take out memberships, for 35,000 crowd 7% of all Tasmanians would need to attend the game. Or more accurately, if they remained in Launceston 35% of the people of Launceston would need to attend, forgetting 15,000 of them wouldn't have been able to gain entry.

On the other hand for GWS to have 30,000 members and the Swans to have 30,000 members would require 1.5% of all Sydney residents taking out memberships. 1.5%!!

GWS will never be the biggest team in the west of Sydney but to succeed it doesn't need to. If less than 1% of the population of Sydney support them and attend their games they will have a similar membership base and crowd numbers as most of the clubs in the comp. This is far from unachievable.

At the end of the day the club can survive and thrive having 8 out of 10 Sydney siders having no idea who they were.

[PeckettofChips]

This is one pisser of a thread.

It has it all, suspense, disbelief, acceptance, retribution and maths.

Who could ask for more!

[Thinline]

For god's sakes some people need to remove the goddam chips from your shoulders, quit bitching and moaning and simply get on with supporting your club.

The competition is run in the interests of the competition. It's not run to keep individual clubs all nice and cosy.

If you want warm and fuzzies, go watch the ammos.

It's a business. It's tough. Life isn't fair. Deal with it.

The new club's will enjoy early success. Nothing surer. What's new in that? Adelaide, Port and West Coast have all enjoyed early success relative to the other clubs.

But they've also had their share of s*** years. West Coast 2010 anyone? AWESOME.

All this doomsday 'life's so mean, the AFL's so corrupt' s*** is so weak it makes me want to puke.

[SainterK]

I was baking a cake today and when I went to the spoon draw to get a wooden spoon they have all gone...... Maybe you can help me find the odd wooden spoon so I can bake my cake.

Why do trolls do it?

It's believed that most trolls are sad people, living their lonely lives vicariously through those they see as strong and successful.

Disrupting a stable newsgroup gives the illusion of power, just as for a few, stalking a strong person allows them to think they are strong, too.

For trolls, any response is 'recognition'; they are unable to distinguish between irritation and admiration; their ego grows directly in proportion to the response, regardless of the form or content of that response.

Trolls, rather surprisingly, dispute this, claiming that it's a game or joke; this merely confirms the diagnosis; how sad do you have to be to find such mind-numbingly trivial timewasting to be funny?

Remember that trolls are cowards; they'll usually post just enough to get an argument going, then sit back and count the responses (Yes, that's what they do!).

[plugger66]

I was baking a cake today and when I went to the spoon draw to get a wooden spoon they have all gone...... Maybe you can help me find the odd wooden spoon so I can bake my cake.

Did you steal the ingredients?

[Dr Spaceman]

I was baking a cake today and when I went to the spoon draw to get a wooden spoon they have all gone...... Maybe you can help me find the odd wooden spoon so I can bake my cake.

Does the cake have a file in it for your boyfriend?