A Pessimistic View of 2011

[saintsRrising]

If they were any good they would have been pushing the hacks in the team that were taking there spots.

Amazing is it not.

Grand Finalists in back to back years....and yet our term is full of hacks...


We ran into the Pies in the GF when they hardly had an injury....

Whereas we had both Gram and dal severely restricted..and several others carrying more injuries than the Pies.


Personally I would tend to think that Steven would have been a strong chance to have played finals if he did not have OP.



We may not have a huge pool of brilliant young talent. But while I may be an optimist I believe that we have enough pushing up to get us thereabouts again. Mostr of our senior players are not yet falling off their perches...but that is good thing and not a bad thing.


Steven, Stanley, Armo and Smith are all likely types.

Miles will be interesting to see after his first proper pre-season....others are possibles.

Ben with another year should be better.

Zac....please recall that he actually hada fabulous finals campaign. He was ill last summer. So aftera good pre-season he should be set fora good 2011.

Now while a large number of kids would be nice...we actually do not need a lot to improve for us to be a better team..


Id say Steven, Armo, Miles...and stanley all pushed in that would great.

However even if just two of them step up and improve then that would most likely be enough.

Raph too remains smokie to improve the team if he can at last get his body right.

[R. Harvey 3 votes!]

I'm one of those that are bullish about the young guys.

There's some real talent amongst those that you have mentioned & I am confident that a number of them will emerge as regular senior players.

12 months ago Collingwood's young blokes were in a similar situation to ours currently are. The only difference is that they had a few more senior games under their belts. Reid, McCaffer & Wellingham had huge question marks over whether they would make it at all. Brown was a bit more advanced and had shown some very good signs. Beams and Sidebottom had played a few good games in their first year & showed a bit (just like Jack Steven has done for us).

As I posted in another thread the roles that our young guys play are the ones that we all identify as our weak spots.

I don't see any reason why a number of our young guys can't come on in 2011 & make St Kilda more dynamic, quick and skilful than the 2010 model.

You are kidding yourselves. Get real about this. We have no decent young players. I love the saints and am passionate, but get real. If they were any good they would have been pushing the hacks in the team that were taking there spots. No one is beating the door down. Jack Steven had the ball fall into this hands against Geelong and a couple of lucky goals skidded through. We have to get serious, we have got the most out of the players we have and we are simply not good enough. We will be making up the numbers when Melbourne come good next year with Carlton and Fremantle, then GC and GWS will come along and we will have a nice time holding up the ladder again. Be realistic we just aren't good enough...simple as that! People look through rose coloured glasses on this site and can't see reality how everyone else does!

When there are legitimate reasons why our young guys weren't banging the door down in 2010, how is it rose coloured?

Jack Steven had OP, bit hard to beat the door down one would of thought. Armo did his knee, twice, that's some bad luck right there. I only found out after the finals, that Geary was carrying something undisclosed that prevented him getting selected late in the year. We have been told a number of times by posters on here, that Lynch had a health issue that had to be rectified. Miles reportedly struggled with injury, yet debuted late when it all came together for him.

Other guys like Stanley and McEvoy, had a fair crack at it....

Rose coloured, or just a more realistic approach than your emotional one?

I assume you watch Sandringham often RH3votes, if you are so willing to say none of our kids are any good?

I was only venting and having a moment! I hope I am completely wrong, but am sick of getting myself up year after year with all of this hope only to be let down time and time again at the most crucial moment. Jack Steven will be better than I said I know that. I know Luke Miles and he could be handy next year. I know we will probably get top 4 again, but are we good enough to finally get the job done with this team? Time will tell? I guess if Reiwoldt actually does something on Grand final day for once we might get over the line. I love Reiwoldt he stands up ever other week, but we really really needed him to do something substantial in the GF this year. I am really hoping he is injury free and just dominates everything next year.
Sainter K I too hate when people bag the players and it is so unlike me, but all i was meaning was that these guys are playing to 100 percent of there ability there is no doubt but they just aren't good enough. No one supports the saints more than me i have been a member for over 20 years. We all want the same thing, i am desperate for a flag, i just don't want this era to go unfulfilled it would be so unfair when sides like the hawks pull one out of there behind after one decent year.

[SainterK]

We all want the success, just understand using words like 'hacks' saddens me, because these very guys pushed Collingwood to a draw GF1.

I don't believe we saw 100% ability GF2, but I wouldn't say it wasn't because of any lack of endeavour, rather physically.

I am sure they want it bad RH3Votes, watch the B&F speeches on the Saints website if you haven't already, that should feel you with some hope.

In regards to our kids, I hope you're wrong too

[kaos theory]

If soft cocks were at the helm of this footy club we would have thrown in the towel after last year,

No, we would have thrown in the towel after we got hammered in the 2008 finals series by the two grand finalists by 10 goals each.

I'd like to know how many here thought we were in for a great 2009. Most did the same analysis, and thought we were heading south.

The problem with doing an analysis based on the performance of your last game is a weak approach at best. Remember, we had Roo out for virtually the whole season, we had gram out for most of the yr, these are critical players in our structure. We had all sorts of other off field issues. Overall we did very well to keep things together....its unlikely we will have so many negatives coming into the next year.

Had we won the first gf, or just lost it, everyone would be saying the pies aren't that great, can't stand our pressure...things are looking up for us etc...
It was obvious in the reply that the cumulation of injuries took their toll, plus the poor kicking, and we were shot by early in the 3rd qtr.

I don't think the pies are that great or unstoppable...everyone thought the hawks would be in for 3 or 4 yrs of domination after 2008....look what happened there...

[bergholt]

Not many will go backwards because of age so i cant see why we wouldnt hold our position.

i'm not convinced this is true. next year we'll have five on the list who are over thirty - there's no doubt some of them will go backwards. lenny's still our best mid, gardy our best ruck and milney our best small forward. an understandable drop in output from any of these three and it hurts the team. there's just no doubt about this.

(that said, though, if it's blake or baker who lose form then there are serious options waiting in the wings; dempster, clarke, miles, simpkin, geary or lynch could all slot in back there.)

no, it's the middle that's the real problem. over the whole team we definitely have class, but where we lost games this year was in the midfield, and that's what worries me, because our midfield ratings are probably something like this, on this year's form:

a+: hayes
a: goddard, montagna
a-: dal santo
b+: jones
b: peake, gram, ray
c+: geary, armitage
c: mcqualter, eddy

lenny remains our best pure midfielder and he's now over 30 and - much as i want to deny it - on the way down. best case is goddard improves to a+, dal back up to a, gram and maybe ray up to b+. these all seem to be incremental moves, enough to counter lenny's fading star but not enough to really improve the midfield.

the only real way to improve our midfield is for some fresh blood to seize a spot, be it geary, armo, steven or miles (if he learns to kick); but one of them has to take someone's spot - and be better than the player they replace. which suggests that we'll need to lose one of mcqualter or eddy, as none of them will walk in and be heaps better than peake or ray; and none of the others will be dropped.

it's the only way i can see our midfield improving sufficiently to make us a better side, rather than just a not worse one.

[saint66au]

lenny remains our best pure midfielder and he's now over 30 and - much as i want to deny it - on the way down

Lenny was in. to put it mildly, career-best form during the finals..and has a Norm Smith medal to prove it.

[bergholt]

lenny remains our best pure midfielder and he's now over 30 and - much as i want to deny it - on the way down

Lenny was in. to put it mildly, career-best form during the finals..and has a Norm Smith medal to prove it.

agreed. but i'm not game to bet on him staying up there for all of next year. no slight on him, but age wearies all except robert harvey.

[Harvey To Hayes]

I'm genuinely interested to know this: if that ball had bounced up for Milney in GF1 and we'd snatched the flag and were about to embark on season 2011 with the premiership crest on our jumpers, would everyone still be predicting such doom and gloom?

Not saying you're wrong, but we were so close to glory two years in a row with a lot of things transpiring against us, I can't see how it's unfathomable that we'll be round about the top again...

[Teflon]

Good read this thread.

We are all clearly anxious bout next year...I am and have no real idea what mental effect being up for 2 losing GF's will have on this group.

I do know we have to improve and that undoubtedly a side will come from nowhere next year and improve.

Our improvement comes from 2 areas:

1 personnel
2 game plan

2. IMHO we have the coach to tweak the plan....but he cant do it all alone.. - what I do have a ? over is the likes of Harvey, Berbakov, ?, etc as assistants....- to me these guys have to add something from day 1.

1. The question in personnel is (a) will the 30yr olds drop away dramatically? (b) Do we have the kids that can step in for immediate improvement?

Im convinced Hayes aint done yet. His best this year was as good as and IMO he has a similar Harvey type game thats endurance based and wont fade quickly (its not like speeds his weapon). I do think McEvoy is ready to play a larger ruck role next year and Gardiner will be used more sparingly and Kosi will also be used more and can reinvent himself here. I think in terms of Milne our fwd line needs an injection of unpredictability anyway......the onus on Milne/Roo for goals regardless of age will be lessoned via likes of Gilbert etc who will get an opportunity up fwd next year.

IMHO for our side to be stronger Mqualter/Eddy/Baker maybe Dempster must be forced out. The replacements aka Armitage/Geary/Steven/Raph/Miles have the capcity to step in and contribute (I reckon Stanley is another year away at least, Walsh is a bonus, Simpkin I dont know enough about).

Mental? who knows.Injury? but we can re-load next year....I have to believe...

[Mr Magic]

Pessimism?
I could wake up tomorrow morning and get run-over by a truck.
A large rock could fall on my head.
The building I'm in could collapse.
The plane I'm on could crash.
The boat I'm on could sink.

All possibilities, but highly unlikely.
As unlikely as I think the predicted demise/slide of the Saints will be next year.

Contrary to popular belief on here, I reckon we did amazingly well given all the circumstances we played under in 2010.
We were a waywrd bounce from winning that elusive 2nd Premiership.
I put more credence into that game than the one the following week where we were soundly beaten. And yet even teh scoreline doesn't truly reflect the game situation before half time. Had we taken only 50% of the chances we made for ourselves, then who knows what the scoreboard pressure would have done to the Magpies? We will never know.
And yet so may are so disheartened that they are predicting the demise of this team.

On what basis?
Do we just forget about the fighting spirit that has been instilled in this team?
Time and again over the last 2 years they have fought their way out of sticky situations on sheer willpower.
How many times must they do this before the disbelievers actually believe?

I truly believe that anybody writing us off for next season is doing a great dis-service to the 'spirit' instilled in this team and coaching panel.

This group has been to the big dance.
They want it so badly that you can see it etched on their faces adn in their eyes.

I've been watching te Saints for 50 years.
I've seen them play like shyte.
I've seen them play fantastically well.

BUT I've never seen a Saints team like this one.

[SainterK]

IMHO for our side to be stronger Mqualter/Eddy/Baker maybe Dempster must be forced out. The replacements aka Armitage/Geary/Steven/Raph/Miles have the capcity to step in and contribute (I reckon Stanley is another year away at least, Walsh is a bonus, Simpkin I dont know enough about).

I enjoyed your input, but wanted to discuss the above a little further.

I think Dempster is in our best 22, I think he blossomed in Bakers absence...which is a tough thing for me to say, because I love Bakes.

I think we have judged Sean harshly when he has been in the side with no ideal matchup, because I believe his ideal matchup is very similar to the player that Steven Baker traditionally takes.

Sean played fantastically well in the finals IMO, he did very well on Gia, Steve Johnson and Didak. He also had 18 inside 50's over the season, so he isn't as likely to hold the ball in defence.

Reading into what he said in the press conference before the finals, he feels all to acutely who he replaces in the side. However I don't want there to be a culture where our younger guys feel like they are treading on legends toes, I want them to feel like they own their spot...

I hope we develop a culture where players like Sean feel like they can push for selection knowing their best is good enough, without worrying about who they may push out....if that makes sense.

[Dr Spaceman]

Pessimism?
I could wake up tomorrow morning and get run-over by a truck.
A large rock could fall on my head.
The building I'm in could collapse.
The plane I'm on could crash.
The boat I'm on could sink.

All possibilities, but highly unlikely.
As unlikely as I think the predicted demise/slide of the Saints will be next year.

Contrary to popular belief on here, I reckon we did amazingly well given all the circumstances we played under in 2010.
We were a waywrd bounce from winning that elusive 2nd Premiership.
I put more credence into that game than the one the following week where we were soundly beaten. And yet even teh scoreline doesn't truly reflect the game situation before half time. Had we taken only 50% of the chances we made for ourselves, then who knows what the scoreboard pressure would have done to the Magpies? We will never know.
And yet so may are so disheartened that they are predicting the demise of this team.

On what basis?
Do we just forget about the fighting spirit that has been instilled in this team?
Time and again over the last 2 years they have fought their way out of sticky situations on sheer willpower.
How many times must they do this before the disbelievers actually believe?

I truly believe that anybody writing us off for next season is doing a great dis-service to the 'spirit' instilled in this team and coaching panel.

This group has been to the big dance.
They want it so badly that you can see it etched on their faces adn in their eyes.

I've been watching te Saints for 50 years.
I've seen them play like shyte.
I've seen them play fantastically well.

BUT I've never seen a Saints team like this one.

Great post MM

There definitely is something about this current team.

[SainterK]

Great post MM

There definitely is something about this current team.

Another candidate for the SS front page

[PJ]

these guys are playing to 100 percent of there ability there is no doubt but they just aren't good enough

Disagree completely

Injuries - Gardiner, Dal Santo, Eddy, Jones (c'mon Ross fess up, you know there was something wrong with him)

Form slump - Kosi, Montagna, Roo (GF day), Schneider (kicking wise), Baker (game time)

Only players playing at 100% - Goddard, Hayes, Fisher, Gwilt, Gilbert (90%),

[vacuous space]

I don't think the Pies are that much better than everyone else. They had a tactical advantage this year, which will probably disappear over summer as coaches break down what they were doing and implement counters. They generated a lot of their score from turnovers. If teams can eliminate their turnovers, Collingwood don't look as effective. Teams figured out us to an extent and they'll work out Collingwood. There's a reason getting back is really hard to do.

As for the players that constantly come under attack, I don't think we've got anyone who isn't good enough. Playing as a 5th or 6th forward with Roo, Kosi, Schneider and Milne in front of you is a tough gig. As is playing in a midfield with dominant stars such as we have. Opportunities are limited and that's why playing a role is so important. I don't think subbing Steven into our team would have made much of a difference. Nor do I think it will make a big difference for the season ahead. It might happen, but it's not going to decide games, least of all the most important one.

I'm optimistic about next season for the same reason I've been optimistic for a while: we've got a very strong group of players and a good coach. I understand that people are going to be naturally negative in the wake of our last loss. Personally, I think we're as likely to knock off Collingwood as anyone out there and I'm quite looking forward to seeing us try.

[bergholt]

Contrary to popular belief on here, I reckon we did amazingly well given all the circumstances we played under in 2010.
We were a waywrd bounce from winning that elusive 2nd Premiership.
I put more credence into that game than the one the following week where we were soundly beaten. And yet even teh scoreline doesn't truly reflect the game situation before half time. Had we taken only 50% of the chances we made for ourselves, then who knows what the scoreboard pressure would have done to the Magpies?

you could obviously say the same about the maggies in gf1, though, as they had more chances than us but failed to take them. my feeling is that if travis cloke had kicked one of his two attempts at goal in the second quarter of that game, or if blair had kicked the one he missed, then we're five goals down at half-time and too far gone. but we'll never know.

[Moccha]

I think a lot of ppl underestimate Lyon as a coach. I'm sure he'll keep pulling rabbits out of hats. He's that good tactically. We could either be really s*** next year and still be in contention or blitz and ???. Who the hell knows

[saintsRrising]

Ok a bit of a review:

TICK: We still have Lyon. Add a swag of new coaches and I believe that should revitalise things and through upa lot of new ideas on how to refresh and tweak our gameplan.

TICK: Playing personnel.

I may be in the minority...but I personally see our 22 as being better in 2011, and not worse.

1/ We basically have not lost anyone, as King hardly played. Gardiner would be the main question mark,though admittedly that is a big question mark!!!!. The new interchange rule may hurt Gardi too as he mainly only played just over 50% TOGs in 2010. If we narow down to one true ruckman he woulld need to lift his TOG. On the plus side Ben will be another pre-season bigger.


2/ We had a truckload of injuries in 2010. Just look how Zac improved once he got a season under his belt after being hampered in the pre-season.

3/ While many do not seem to rate our kids, given that we have have not really lost any one we only need a couple to step up and be regulars for us to improve. More than that will be a bonus.

IMO Steven, Stanley, Miles and Armo are all strong chances to bloom.
Geary will get better. Stanley may still suffer from being too light though in 2011 and certainly to have much effect in the ruck. But as forward there is good potential even in 2011. Need 4 quarter efforts out of him though.

Smith impressed me last year and come 2011 he could well be a player that surprises.

There are others, but it would bea bigger surprise if any of them became regulars in 2011. Heyne, Lynch Simpkin. But there is a chance.

4/ Gram was basically a non-event in 2010. If they get his body ok over Summer that will e like gaininga quality new recruit.

Walsh and Gaertner remain smokies.

* Walsh with his second proper pre-season will be an interesting one to watch. With 2 pre-seasons he should have been improved a lot aerobically, and so should in 2011 be really able to ramp up his football side. How much will be fun to watch.



Every year is different...and we could improve or go backwards. I do believe that we do have lot going for us.

One of the negatives though is that whoever wins the flag in 2011 is going to have to do it against stiff opposition.

[Mr Magic]

Contrary to popular belief on here, I reckon we did amazingly well given all the circumstances we played under in 2010.
We were a waywrd bounce from winning that elusive 2nd Premiership.
I put more credence into that game than the one the following week where we were soundly beaten. And yet even teh scoreline doesn't truly reflect the game situation before half time. Had we taken only 50% of the chances we made for ourselves, then who knows what the scoreboard pressure would have done to the Magpies?

you could obviously say the same about the maggies in gf1, though, as they had more chances than us but failed to take them. my feeling is that if travis cloke had kicked one of his two attempts at goal in the second quarter of that game, or if blair had kicked the one he missed, then we're five goals down at half-time and too far gone. but we'll never know.

If one wants to be pessimistic he/she can always find a reason.
Similarly if one wants to be optimistic he/she can always find a reason.

I look at the second qtr of GF2 as a complete domination of us by Collingwood and yet they couldn't put us away. How many times did our defensive unit pick off their forward attacks or 'rush' a behind?

We absorbed everything they threw at us and went in at half time ready to regroup.

When we lose a Premiership because we didn't take our chances in the 2009 GF it's because Geelong were better than us.
Yet when Collingwood don't take their chances the following year, somehow we're not majorly responsible????

I'm struggling to see the difference other than the perspective from which the comments are being made.

[Thinline]

Pessimism?
I could wake up tomorrow morning and get run-over by a truck.
A large rock could fall on my head.
The building I'm in could collapse.
The plane I'm on could crash.
The boat I'm on could sink.

All possibilities, but highly unlikely.
As unlikely as I think the predicted demise/slide of the Saints will be next year.

Contrary to popular belief on here, I reckon we did amazingly well given all the circumstances we played under in 2010.
We were a waywrd bounce from winning that elusive 2nd Premiership.
I put more credence into that game than the one the following week where we were soundly beaten. And yet even teh scoreline doesn't truly reflect the game situation before half time. Had we taken only 50% of the chances we made for ourselves, then who knows what the scoreboard pressure would have done to the Magpies? We will never know.
And yet so may are so disheartened that they are predicting the demise of this team.

On what basis?
Do we just forget about the fighting spirit that has been instilled in this team?
Time and again over the last 2 years they have fought their way out of sticky situations on sheer willpower.
How many times must they do this before the disbelievers actually believe?

I truly believe that anybody writing us off for next season is doing a great dis-service to the 'spirit' instilled in this team and coaching panel.

This group has been to the big dance.
They want it so badly that you can see it etched on their faces adn in their eyes.

I've been watching te Saints for 50 years.
I've seen them play like shyte.
I've seen them play fantastically well.

BUT I've never seen a Saints team like this one.

You rock. I'm with ya.

[bergholt]

When we lose a Premiership because we didn't take our chances in the 2009 GF it's because Geelong were better than us.
Yet when Collingwood don't take their chances the following year, somehow we're not majorly responsible????

I'm struggling to see the difference other than the perspective from which the comments are being made.

no difference. it's an apt comparison. i've never said that geelong were the better team in the 09 grannie because that just isn't true.

in both cases, the team on the top of the ladder was the best team on the day but failed to take their chances in the first half and was overrun. the only difference is that the maggies had a bit more luck in the last quarter than we did the year before, so they were able to hang on by their fingernails for a draw.

we wasted one premiership opportunity when we were the best team on the day. we also wasted another where we weren't the best on the day, but almost got home thanks to individual heroics.

[Thinline]

When we lose a Premiership because we didn't take our chances in the 2009 GF it's because Geelong were better than us.
Yet when Collingwood don't take their chances the following year, somehow we're not majorly responsible????

I'm struggling to see the difference other than the perspective from which the comments are being made.

no difference. it's an apt comparison. i've never said that geelong were the better team in the 09 grannie because that just isn't true.

in both cases, the team on the top of the ladder was the best team on the day but failed to take their chances in the first half and was overrun. the only difference is that the maggies had a bit more luck in the last quarter than we did the year before, so they were able to hang on by their fingernails for a draw.

we wasted one premiership opportunity when we were the best team on the day. we also wasted another where we weren't the best on the day, but almost got home thanks to individual heroics.

I keep hearing people say 'they were better on the day' re GF1...

THEY SIMPLY WERE NOT.

Yes, they gave us a good old fashioned rogering in Q2, but after Q1 it was even stevens - note: we had more than double the clearances despite being down a goal- and we had them well and truly beat in Q's 3 and 4.

Re luck: two s*** bounces for us (Roo and Milne) and a fortuitous spillage to them (resulting in Clokes goal).

Academic though. They WERE significantly better (and fitter) second time around.

You make most of your luck through effort. The balance you need gifted.

IMO anyway.

[bozza1980]

I'm one of those that are bullish about the young guys.

There's some real talent amongst those that you have mentioned & I am confident that a number of them will emerge as regular senior players.

12 months ago Collingwood's young blokes were in a similar situation to ours currently are. The only difference is that they had a few more senior games under their belts. Reid, McCaffer & Wellingham had huge question marks over whether they would make it at all. Brown was a bit more advanced and had shown some very good signs. Beams and Sidebottom had played a few good games in their first year & showed a bit (just like Jack Steven has done for us).

As I posted in another thread the roles that our young guys play are the ones that we all identify as our weak spots.

I don't see any reason why a number of our young guys can't come on in 2011 & make St Kilda more dynamic, quick and skilful than the 2010 model.

You are kidding yourselves. Get real about this. We have no decent young players. I love the saints and am passionate, but get real. If they were any good they would have been pushing the hacks in the team that were taking there spots. No one is beating the door down. Jack Steven had the ball fall into this hands against Geelong and a couple of lucky goals skidded through. We have to get serious, we have got the most out of the players we have and we are simply not good enough. We will be making up the numbers when Melbourne come good next year with Carlton and Fremantle, then GC and GWS will come along and we will have a nice time holding up the ladder again. Be realistic we just aren't good enough...simple as that! People look through rose coloured glasses on this site and can't see reality how everyone else does!

No one on here would ever suggest i look through rose coloured glasses but your post is negative for no apparent reason that we lost a GF by one point. Forget the second game and we were one point off winning the first. Would you post that about any other side that has come so close to winning the GF. I doubt it. I have previously said apart from jack and youngsters may not be much good and forgetting Stanley because of age, but we still have a great side. Not many will go backwards because of age so i cant see why we wouldnt hold our position. Melbourne are a year away at least and Carlton just havent got good enough players. freo, I agree will be dangerous but i cannot see us losing top 4 which then gives you a chance.

The only dangers for us are in our head and injuries of which we have had hardly any in the last 2 years.

Having said that i will totally agree with your post in 2 years because we will then be on a rebuilding mission.

I'm with you 100%.

Sides that lead in time on in Grand Finals aren't "not good enough".

Quite simply, if we aren't good enough, there is only one team that should bother turning up next season.

We were two bounces of the ball off back to back flags, we will again contend for the flag next year, this does not mean we will win it, but we will be still standing when the whips are cracking.

The window is closing but it is still open, this group will claim us our second cup.

Sorry guys, lazy quoting on my behalf attributed text to the wrong poster. Now the true posters are reflected[/i]

[Mr Magic]

I believe a huge tinge of sarcasm in plugger's post seems to have eluded some on here?

[plugger66]

I believe a huge tinge of sarcasm in plugger's post seems to have eluded some on here?

I actually didnt write that. i wrote the response to that. have no idea how my name ended up on it.